日本经济财政谘问会议民间成员永滨利广：高市早苗政府的经济政策将把重点放在利用财政政策提振经济供应面，货币政策则扮演辅助角色。前日本央行副行长、政府政策小组委员若田部昌澄：日本必须通过财政政策、增长策略提高中性利率。鉴于中性利率水准，央行应该避免过早加息、过度调整货币政策援助。 ...

Group 1 - The UK's unemployment rate has risen to 5.1%, the highest level since early 2021, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value, aligning with economists' expectations [1][5] - Average wage growth, excluding bonuses, has decreased from 4.7% to 4.6%, marking the lowest level since early 2022, with private sector wage growth falling below 4% for the first time since 2020 [1][5] - The number of employees on payroll has decreased by 38,000, exceeding expectations, indicating a potential slowdown in the labor market [1][5] Group 2 - The Bank of England is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, reducing the benchmark rate to 3.75%, as multiple indicators suggest a loss of growth momentum in the UK economy [5][12] - The upcoming budget announcement by Chancellor Rachel Reeves is causing uncertainty among businesses, leading to delays in new project investments [5][12] - The unemployment rate for young people has risen to 13.4%, the highest level in over a year, with nearly 550,000 individuals aged 18 to 24 unemployed, marking a new high since 2015 [8][12] Group 3 - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee is facing a critical decision regarding the continuation of the easing cycle, as the neutral interest rate is approaching, which complicates future rate cuts [12][13] - The inflation rate remains high at 3.6% as of October, and the government's budget measures may exacerbate inflationary pressures by increasing operational costs for businesses [12][13] - Economists predict that the Bank of England's base rate may drop to 3.25% by the second half of next year, with market expectations indicating a stabilization around 3.4% [13]

Group 1 - The Bank of England is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, bringing the benchmark rate down to 3.75% [1] - Economists predict that the Bank of England's bank rate will fall to 3.25% by the second half of next year, while investors are more pessimistic, expecting rates to remain around 3.4% [1] - The Chief UK Economist at Capital Economics, Paul Dales, suggests that the threshold for future rate cuts has become higher, indicating uncertainty about the continuation of automatic rate cuts [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan stated that current inflation levels do not reflect true supply and demand dynamics, with the preferred inflation indicator showing an annualized growth rate of 2.8%, above the 2% target [2] - Milan emphasized that housing inflation is lagging and does not accurately reflect the current rental price trends, suggesting that monetary policy should focus on future conditions rather than past imbalances [2] - Key economic data to watch includes UK unemployment rate for October, Eurozone and UK manufacturing PMI for December, and US non-farm payroll changes for October and November [2] Group 3 - The US Dollar Index experienced a slight decline, trading around 98.30, influenced by the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and disappointing economic data [3] - The Euro appreciated against the dollar, trading around 1.1750, supported by the weak dollar and expectations of the European Central Bank maintaining its current stance [4] - The British Pound showed slight gains, trading around 1.3370, buoyed by the weak dollar and expectations regarding the nearing end of the Bank of England's rate cut cycle [5]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has indicated further progress in wage growth, which is a key factor for potential interest rate hikes this week [1][2] - A report from the BOJ shows that most companies expect to raise wages in FY2026 at a rate similar to FY2025, which was a period of significant wage increases [1][2] - Market expectations for an interest rate hike to 0.75% are high, with traders estimating a 94% probability of this occurring [2] Group 2: Economic Confidence and Wage Negotiations - Confidence among Japan's largest manufacturers has risen for the third consecutive quarter, reaching a four-year high, while non-manufacturing data remains near its highest level since the early 1990s [1] - The largest labor union in Japan, Rengo, achieved its highest wage increase in nearly 30 years and aims for at least a 5% wage increase in the upcoming negotiations [2] Group 3: ETF and J-REITs Sales - The BOJ may begin selling its holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as early as next month, with a plan to sell at a rate of approximately 3.3 trillion yen annually [8][11] - The total value of the BOJ's ETF holdings is reported to be 37.1 trillion yen on the books, with a market value of 83 trillion yen (approximately $534 billion) [8] - The sale of ETFs and Japanese real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) is seen as a significant step towards normalizing monetary policy after a prolonged period of ultra-loose monetary conditions [11]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing intense debate regarding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts, with expectations for two cuts next year despite persistent inflation [1][7] - Key economic data, including non-farm employment and inflation figures, are set to be released, which will help clarify the Fed's monetary policy direction [1][3] - The two-year Treasury yield is around 3.5%, while the ten-year yield is approximately 4.2%, following a recent 25 basis point cut in the Fed's benchmark rate [2][8] Group 2 - Economists predict that the U.S. will add 50,000 non-farm jobs in November, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, the highest since 2021 [3][9] - The upcoming employment report is seen as crucial, with potential implications for the timing of future rate cuts, particularly if job numbers decline [10][12] - The Fed's current benchmark rate is viewed as being within a neutral range, limiting further easing options [4][11] Group 3 - Internal divisions among Fed officials exist regarding policy direction, with some calling for more data before making decisions [6][12] - The potential appointment of a new Fed chair, as Jerome Powell's term ends in May, could shift the Fed's policy stance towards a more dovish approach [12] - Employment market performance may serve as a justification for rate cuts, even with slight signs of weakness [12]

12月15日，12日，据路透援引消息人士报道，日本央行12月或将维持加息承诺，加息步伐将取决于经济 对每次加息的反应。最新调查显示，九成经济学家预测日本央行将在12月18日至19日的会议上加息25个 基点，市场定价也显示，12月加息25基点的概率约为90%。然而，报道援引知情人士指出，日本央行将 避免把"中性利率"估值作为指引未来加息路径的主要沟通工具。相反，央行将解释称，未来的加息决策 将取决于观察过去的利率上调如何影响银行贷款、企业融资条件以及其他广泛的经济活动，以此来判断 下一次行动的时机。这一沟通策略旨在消除市场的单一线性预期，即央行会因为利率接近中性水平下限 而机械地停止加息。通过淡化具体的中性利率点位，日本央行试图在复杂的经济环境中保留政策灵活 性，确保货币政策调整与实体经济的承受能力相匹配。 另外，世界黄金协会发布的最新数据显示，11月全球实物黄金ETF流入达52亿美元，已连续六个月实现 流入。截至11月底，资产管理总规模（AUM）增至5300亿美元，较上月环比增长5.4%；总持仓月内上 升1%至3932吨，二者共创月末新高，今年全球黄金ETF流入总量有望创下历史最佳年度表现。从区域 来看，亚洲 ...

来源：金十数据 本周，英国央行普遍被预期将进行一次降息，这将迫使决策者们不得不正视一个问题：在开启近一年半 之后，他们的宽松周期是否已接近尾声？ 大多数经济学家和投资者预计英国央行周四将降息25个基点，这将使其基准利率降至3.75%。这一水平 距离某些指标所显示的英国"中性利率"仅差一到两次降息。所谓中性利率，是指既不刺激也不抑制通胀 的利率水平。 尽管英国央行货币政策委员会（MPC）的大多数成员不愿透露他们心目中的中性利率具体在何处，但 这一概念已在影响他们的决策。近几个月来，这个九人委员会在"鹰派"和"鸽派"之间势均力敌，贝利成 为了决定性的关键一票。 MPC内部的分歧主要集中在应更侧重于英国顽固的高通胀（截至10月为3.6%），还是更关注其日益疲 软的就业市场。自英国央行于2024年8月启动本轮宽松周期以来，这两种相互拉锯的力量使得降息决策 变得愈发困难。而随着利率逼近中性水平，决策难度将进一步加大。 凯投宏观首席英国经济学家保罗·戴尔斯（Paul Dales）表示："从现在起，每一次降息的门槛似乎都变得 更高了。虽然一直存在巨大分歧，但我怀疑这种'自动降息'的态势是否会就此消退。" 贝利特别强调了11 ...

英国央行本周料将如市场预期降息，但这可能将迫使政策制定者直面一个棘手问题：启动不到一年半的 宽松周期是否已接近终点? 多数经济学家与投资者预计，英国央行将于周四宣布降息25个基点，届时基准利率将降至3.75%。而英 国央行行长贝利近期援引的一项测算及其他多项指标均显示，英国的"中性利率"水平已近在咫尺——该 利率水平被认为既不会刺激也不会抑制通胀——而当前利率距离该水平仅差一到两次降息空间。 尽管英国央行货币政策委员会多数委员一直不愿明示其心中的中性利率区间，但这一概念已悄然成为决 策的重要考量因素。近几个月来，这个由9名委员组成的决策机构内，鹰派与鸽派阵营始终势均力敌， 行长贝利则成为左右最终决议的关键摇摆票。 货币政策委员会的分歧核心，在于如何权衡英国居高不下的通胀水平与持续走弱的就业市场。截至10 月，英国通胀率仍高达3.6%。自2024年8月开启本轮宽松周期以来，这两股相互博弈的力量已让降息决 策的推进步履维艰，而随着政策利率向中性水平逼近，未来的降息操作将更具挑战性。 凯投宏观英国首席经济学家Paul Dales表示："从现在起，每一次降息的门槛都将显著抬高。尽管委员们 分歧严重，但我不禁猜想，此前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to begin selling its holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as early as next month, a process projected to take decades to complete, with current ETF holdings valued at approximately 83 trillion yen (about 534 billion USD) as of the end of September [1][4]. Group 1: ETF Sale Plans - The BOJ announced a plan to sell its ETF and Japanese Real Estate Investment Trusts (J-REITs) at a rate of approximately 3.3 trillion yen annually for ETFs and 5 billion yen for J-REITs, marking the first specific mention of such a plan [4]. - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the decision to sell ETFs is not related to stock market levels and that the planned sales could take over 100 years if executed at the specified pace [4]. - The BOJ aims to maintain a stable monthly pace of ETF sales while avoiding market disruptions, with the flexibility to halt sales in case of significant market volatility [5]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Context - The sale of ETFs and J-REITs is viewed as a significant step towards normalizing the long-standing ultra-loose monetary policy of the BOJ, with symbolic importance [5]. - The BOJ is also preparing to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the benchmark rate to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995 [5]. - Market participants are keen to understand how the BOJ will signal further interest rate hikes and are looking for indications regarding the neutral interest rate, estimated to be between 1% and 2.5% [5]. Group 3: Historical Context of ETF Purchases - The BOJ began purchasing ETFs in 2010 to stimulate the corporate sector by increasing the supply of funds and encouraging risk investment activities [7]. - Initially, the BOJ invested heavily in Nikkei 225 index ETFs but shifted to broader Topix index ETFs in 2021 [7]. - The scale of asset purchases expanded significantly under former Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, leading to a substantial rise in the Japanese stock market, although the effectiveness of these measures has diminished over time [7]. Group 4: Criticism of ETF Holdings - The BOJ's initial purchase of Nikkei 225 index ETFs faced criticism due to the price-weighted nature of the index, which disproportionately favored a few high-priced stocks [8]. - Critics argue that the BOJ's large ETF holdings distort the market and can lead to excessive volatility during policy adjustments [8]. - The substantial holdings by the BOJ have reduced the availability of tradable shares in the market and weakened shareholder influence on corporate governance [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, copper prices rose first and then fell. The main reasons were that some hawkish officials opposed continuous interest rate cuts, the probability of continued rate cuts in January was low according to the CME observation tool, the expectation of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike might affect the global foreign exchange carry - trade market, and concerns about the bursting of the AI bubble led to asset selling in the metal market. Domestically, the central economic work conference emphasized flexible use of policies like reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, promoting a new real - estate development model [2][7]. - Overall, concerns about the bursting of the technology stock bubble in overseas markets on Friday and opposition to rate cuts from some hawkish officials on Thursday made the probability of continuous rate cuts in early next year slim, leading to a decline in market risk appetite. Fundamentally, the shortage of overseas concentrates persists, non - US inventories are low, and the artificial intelligence field offers broad demand prospects. It is expected that copper prices will slow their upward momentum and enter a high - level consolidation in the short term [2][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - LME copper price on December 12 was $11,552.50 per ton, down $112.50 (- 0.96%) from December 5. COMEX copper price was 535.84 cents per pound, down 9.56 cents (- 1.75%). SHFE copper price was 94,080 yuan per ton, up 1,300 yuan (1.40%). International copper price was 84,490 yuan per ton, up 1,100 yuan (1.32%). The Shanghai - London ratio rose from 7.95 to 8.14. LME spot premium dropped by 10.24% to $20.69 per ton, and Shanghai spot premium fell from 170 yuan to - 20 yuan [3]. - As of December 12, LME copper inventory increased by 3,350 tons (2.06%) to 165,900 tons, COMEX copper inventory increased by 13,765 short tons (3.15%) to 450,618 short tons, SHFE inventory increased by 484 tons (0.54%) to 89,371 tons, and Shanghai bonded - area inventory increased by 5,500 tons (5.80%) to 100,300 tons. Total inventory rose by 23,099 tons (2.95%) to 806,189 tons [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro - aspect: The Fed cut interest rates for the last time this year last Thursday, with the federal funds rate range at 3.5% - 3.75%. The dot - plot shows one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027. 7 officials expect no rate cut in 2026, and 4 expect two 25 - basis - point cuts. The probability of no rate cut in January next year is 75% according to the CME tool. Domestically, China's November CPI rose 0.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 1.2%. The PPI index was - 2.2% year - on - year but + 0.1% month - on - month [8]. - Supply - demand aspect: In 2026, the production of some overseas mines is expected to be flat with 2025, and the global concentrate supply growth rate will be less than 1.5%. Codelco's premium for 2026 Chinese CIF refined copper long - term contracts reached a record high of $350 per ton. Traditional industry demand is cooling, while emerging industries like new - energy vehicles, AI data centers, and industrial robots offer broad market space [9]. Industry News - Rio2 acquired a 99.1% stake in Peru's Condestable copper mine for $241 million. The mine has a 60 - plus - year production history, with a daily processing capacity of 8,400 tons, and is expected to produce about 27,000 tons of copper equivalent annually [11]. - Anglo American and Teck Resources' shareholders approved a $53 - billion all - stock, zero - premium merger. The combined Collahuasi and Quebrada Blanca copper mines may produce over one million tons of copper annually by the early 2030s [12]. - Chile's state - owned Codelco's copper production in October fell 14.3% to 111,000 tons, while BHP's Escondida mine production rose 11.7% to 120,600 tons, and Collahuasi mine production dropped 29.3% to 35,000 tons [13]. Relevant Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of copper prices, inventories, premiums, spreads, and other indicators, such as the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory changes, and the relationship between copper imports' profit and loss and other factors [17][19][22].