5月23日，广东省统计局发布的2025年4月经济运行数据显示，全省消费市场持续回暖，以旧换新政策成 效显著。家具、建材等品类零售增速刷新纪录，限额以上家用电器和音像器材类、家具类、建筑及装潢 材料类商品零售额分别增长86.9%、123.5%、156.9%，家具建材零售增速现新高，消费市场整体表现亮 眼。 以旧换新政策成效深化 业内人士指出，广东家居、建材零售增长与以旧换新政策深化实施密切相关。家电补贴直接刺激换新需 求，家装厨卫"焕新"政策叠加适老化改造补贴，推动局部装修和智能家居消费爆发。 2024年，广东省以旧换新政策取得突出成绩，全年累计实现销售额1534.5亿元，惠及消费者超1128万 人，规模稳居全国第一，政策覆盖汽车、家电、手机数码、家装厨卫等多个领域。 4月，广东社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.9%，较一季度增速提升0.5个百分点。1-4月，消费复苏动能 增强，分类型看，商品零售同比增长3.2%，餐饮收入增长2.1%，基本生活类及升级类商品销售表现突 出，如粮油食品类、体育娱乐用品类零售额分别增长11.9%、36.5%。 4月，广东限额以上家用电器和音像器材类、家具类、建筑及装潢材料类商品零售额分 ...

Group 1 - The consumption market is maintaining steady growth due to the effective implementation of the old-for-new policy and organized promotional activities [1] - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.72 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [1] - From January to April, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 16.18 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [1]

Core Insights - In April, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.5 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Retail sales of units above the designated size grew by 6.6%, with an acceleration of 0.8 percentage points from the first quarter [1] Group 1: Policy Impact - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has shown significant effectiveness, contributing to the stable growth of the consumption market [1] - Retail sales of home appliances, cultural and office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment for units above the designated size increased by 38.8%, 33.5%, 26.9%, and 19.9% year-on-year, respectively [1] Group 2: Automotive Sector - According to the Automotive Circulation Association, the retail volume of passenger cars in April increased by 14.5% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Upgraded Goods - Retail sales of upgraded goods such as gold, silver, and jewelry, as well as cosmetics for units above the designated size, increased by 25.3% and 7.2% year-on-year, respectively [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights that BYD has surpassed Tesla in electric vehicle sales in Europe for the first time, marking a significant shift in the market dynamics [1] - BYD's electric vehicle registration sales in April reached 7,231 units, representing a 169% year-on-year increase, positioning the company among the top ten electric vehicle brands [1] - In contrast, Tesla's registration sales plummeted by 49%, resulting in a drop in its market ranking [1] Group 2 - Zhongtai Securities expresses optimism for investment opportunities in the automotive and smart driving sectors, indicating limited adjustments during the off-season in Q1 2025 [2] - The report suggests that the upcoming vehicle replacement policy is expected to support the automotive sector, with a strong likelihood of order reversals in the near future [2] - Guotai Haitong Securities notes that advancements in autonomous driving technologies, such as NOA and Robotaxi, are beginning to yield financial returns, benefiting companies with strong model capabilities and innovative components [2]

点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 1159 字，阅读全文约需 3 分钟 "五一"黄金周各车企加大促销力度后，市场折扣幅度加大，最新调研结果显示，5月月中整体车市折扣率 约为24.8%。零售量占总市场八成以上的头部厂商本月零售目标同比去年5月增长8%，较上月目标增长约5%， 综合估算本月狭义乘用车零售总市场约为185万辆左右，同比去年增长8.5%，环比上月增长5.4%，其中新能源 零售预计可达98万，渗透率维持在52.9%左右。 二、周度走势推算 5月第1周为"五一"假期，终端以收集订单为主，交车较少，日均零售4.17万辆，同比-10.9%，环比 19.3%。第2周开始节后集中交付，日均零售达6.09万辆，同比30.2%，环比44.2%。第3周节后正常回落，预计 日均零售5.12万辆，同比13.9%，环比持平。第4周终端热度温和延续，预计日均销量5.71万，同比18.7%，环 比-13.4%。第5周共5个工作日，终端交付时间充足，预计日均销量8.64万，同比-6.2%，环比-21.7%。综合估算 5月终端零售可达到185万辆左右。 三、5月车市"前高后低" 商务部数据显示，截至5月11日，全国以旧换新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group [4][11] Core Views - JD Group's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 3010.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, and adjusted net profit of 127.6 billion yuan, up 43.4% year-on-year [8] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 12832/13637/14266 billion yuan, reflecting an increase in product revenue growth [3][11] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 433/489/518 billion yuan, with a decrease due to increased investment in the food delivery business [3][11] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 revenue breakdown: - Product revenue reached 2423.1 billion yuan, up 16.2% year-on-year - Service revenue was 587.7 billion yuan, up 14.0% year-on-year [8] - JD Retail's Q1 2025 revenue was 2638.5 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 4.87% [8] - JD Logistics reported Q1 2025 revenue of 469.7 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 0.31% [8] - New business revenue in Q1 2025 was 57.5 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 13.3 billion yuan due to increased investment [8] Shareholder Returns - In Q1 2025, JD Group repurchased approximately 80.7 million shares for about 1.5 billion USD, representing 2.8% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2024 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The continuation and expansion of the national subsidy policy for replacing old consumer goods have significantly boosted sales in the home appliance and automotive sectors, contributing to economic stability and growth [1][4][8]. Group 1: Sales Performance - The JD Electric flagship store in Jinan reported a sales revenue exceeding 1 billion yuan within the first four months of this year, driven by the national subsidy policy [1][2]. - The cumulative purchase of old-for-new home appliances has surpassed 100 million units since the policy's implementation, with over 40 million units purchased in 2025 alone [2]. - Retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 19.3% year-on-year in the first quarter, with March showing a remarkable growth of 35.1% [2]. Group 2: Automotive Sector Impact - The automotive sales at Shandong Changshuo have doubled due to the combined effect of national and local subsidies, with significant sales growth continuing into the traditionally slow first quarter [3]. - In the first four months of this year, China's automotive production and sales reached 10.175 million and 10.06 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 12.9% and 10.8% [3]. Group 3: Economic and Industrial Upgrades - The subsidy policy has not only stimulated consumer spending but also facilitated industrial transformation and upgrades, with a notable increase in the purchase of energy-efficient products [4][5]. - In Shandong, 61.8% of new vehicle purchases were electric, and 87.6% of old-for-new home appliances sold were of first-level energy efficiency [5]. Group 4: Policy Implementation Challenges - Some consumers have reported delays in receiving subsidies, prompting local governments to streamline the approval process to expedite fund disbursement [6][7]. - A pre-allocation mechanism for subsidies has been established in Shandong to alleviate the financial burden on home appliance retailers, allowing for up to 80% of funds to be advanced [7]. Group 5: Future Policy Considerations - Stakeholders express a desire for the continuation and optimization of the subsidy policy, with suggestions to expand the range of eligible products and increase the price cap for certain categories [8][9]. - The diminishing marginal utility of the subsidy policy has been noted, with recommendations for ongoing central government support to maintain the program's effectiveness [9].

Core Insights - The retail sales of home appliances have maintained double-digit growth for eight consecutive months from September 2024 to April 2025, indicating strong consumer demand in this sector [1] - In April, the retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment from above-designated size enterprises increased by 38.8% year-on-year, ranking first among 16 major categories of consumer goods [1] - The Ministry of Commerce, in collaboration with relevant departments, has expanded and improved the "old for new" appliance exchange policy, which has shown continuous positive results [1]

Group 1 - The retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 932,000 units from May 1 to May 18, 2023, representing a 12% increase year-on-year and an 18% increase month-on-month, with a cumulative retail of 7.804 million units in 2023, up 8% year-on-year [1] - The wholesale of passenger cars during the same period was 858,000 units, showing an 18% increase year-on-year but a 2% decrease month-on-month, with a cumulative wholesale of 9.326 million units in 2023, up 12% year-on-year [1] - China’s automotive market has potential for growth, requiring policy support to elevate the ownership ceiling and stimulate replacement potential, with a target of achieving a stable sales volume of 28 million units by enhancing the car ownership rate to 300 vehicles per thousand people [1] Group 2 - Guohai Securities anticipates that the used car replacement policy will catalyze passenger car sales in 2024, with continued support for automotive consumption in 2025 [2] - The automotive sector is expected to enter a phase of high sales prosperity, driven by improved monthly sales year-on-year, new car launches, technological advancements, and trends in high-level autonomous driving and robotics [2]

在汽车行业竞争白热化的当下，以旧换新政策被视为破局"金钥匙"。《证券日报》记者近日实地探访发 现，消费者循着政策红利纷至沓来，不少车主果断出手，将闲置燃油车"腾笼换鸟"，加速拥抱新能源座 驾。 消费者参与意愿持续升温 "旧车置换补贴简直是'及时雨'，大大节省了换车成本。"在乐道汽车北京体验店，一位刚完成购车手续 的消费者告诉《证券日报》记者，除补贴外，他主要看中部分新能源汽车品牌的可充、可换、可升级的 补能服务体系，缓解了对新能源汽车出行补能的焦虑。同时，智能驾驶辅助系统、智能座舱等科技配 置，也精准击中了年轻群体"既要经济又要科技"的消费痛点。 汽车以旧换新政策正式推行以来，实施成效卓著，为汽车消费市场持续注入澎湃动能。商务部日前发布 数据显示，截至5月11日，2025年汽车以旧换新补贴申请量达322.5万份，其中汽车报废更新103.5万份， 置换更新219万份。自2024年汽车以旧换新政策实施以来，累计补贴申请量已突破1000万份。 据悉，2025年政策对报废国四及以下排放标准的燃油车并转购新能源车型的消费者提供2万元补贴，若 选购燃油车则补贴1.5万元，叠加地方财政专项补贴(如北京、上海、广东等地均有额 ...