低利率环境下的新常态 ——非银金融行业2024年报&2025年一季报综述 长江证券研究所非银金融研究小组 2025-05-06 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 分析师 吴一凡 分析师 谢宇尘 分析师 戴永飞 分析师 程泽宇 SAC执业证书编号：S0490519080007 SAC执业证书编号：S0490521020001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524070001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524090001 SFC执业证书编号：BUV596 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 分析师及联系人 综述：低利率环境下的新常态 %% research.95579.com 3 ➢ 总结：2024年是非银金融机构对抗利率下行初显成效的一年，除了直观的资产收益率大幅回升之外，成本下降或是更为重要的成果。一方面是传 统险预定利率的下调及分红险占比的回升，另一方面是券商费用率的下降。2025年Q1我们看到行业仍延续这一趋势，但增长动能正在减弱，从 企业行为上来看应对长期低利率做出的资产和负债调整成为 ...

A股近期有所反弹 4月28日，A股三大指数小幅下跌，沪指全天维持在3300点附近。4月以来，受特朗普政府所谓的"对等 关税"冲击，全球资本市场出现大幅波动，A股也被牵连。 不过，在中国多部门密集部署、推出多种举 措之后，A股有所反弹。 如何看待A股近期的走势？市场风险偏好是否正在边际性改善？东吴期货首席投资官吴照银为我们带来 他的解读。 0:00 南方财经全媒体记者杨雨莱 广州报道 A股"成绩单"表现亮眼 4月底，2025年一季报披露临近尾声，A股市场上市公司交出了一份较为亮眼的成绩单。截至4月27日， 超过2700家上市公司发布了2025年一季报，已发布一季报的公司中，约四成实现了营收和归母净利润的 双增长，约六成企业实现净利润同比增长，百余家公司增幅超100%。其中，基础化工、电力设备、有 色金属等板块表现突出。 市场风险偏好在稳步改善 吴照银：在过去的三周里，A股市场和全球资本市场的局势都有所缓和。尽管关税战尚未达成最终协 议，市场的整体趋势仍然是朝着稳定的方向发展。我们可以看到市场已经开始慢慢回升，波动幅度逐渐 减小，整体运行状态趋于平稳。同时，市场的风险偏好也在稳步改善。 在这个时间点上，我们对市场 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market index by more than 5% over the next six months [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that China Pacific Insurance (CPIC) achieved a net profit of 9.627 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 18.1%. The net assets decreased by 9.5% compared to the end of the previous year, totaling 263.61 billion yuan [2]. - In the life insurance sector, CPIC is focusing on high-quality development and deepening its transformation. The new insurance premium scale increased significantly, with a new premium scale of 42.354 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.2% [4]. - The report notes that the non-life insurance segment also saw stable premium growth, with original premium income reaching 63.108 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.0% [4]. - Investment performance remained resilient despite market fluctuations, with an annualized net investment return rate of 0.8% in Q1 2025, unchanged from the previous year [4]. Summary by Sections Life Insurance - CPIC's new insurance premium scale reached 42.354 billion yuan, up 29.2% year-on-year. The new business value (NBV) was approximately 5.778 billion yuan, with a significant increase in comparable terms [4]. - The product structure was optimized, with the proportion of participating insurance premiums rising to 18.2%, an increase of 16.1 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The individual insurance channel saw a decline in new premium scale, down 15.2% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base in the previous year [4]. Non-Life Insurance - CPIC's original premium income in the non-life insurance sector was 63.108 billion yuan, with a 1.0% year-on-year increase. The growth in auto and non-auto insurance premiums was 1.3% and 0.7%, respectively [4]. - The combined ratio improved to 97.4%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating better cost management and reduced disaster impacts [4]. Investment Performance - The report indicates that the capital market remains volatile, but CPIC's investment performance is resilient, with a total investment return rate of 1.0%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The yield on ten-year government bonds increased by 14 basis points compared to the end of 2024, impacting the fair value of bonds held by CPIC [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the C-REITs sector [6] Core Views - The C-REITs market is expected to present investment opportunities in a low interest rate environment by 2025, with macroeconomic conditions gradually improving. However, timing is crucial for secondary market investments as the sector has already undergone valuation recovery in 2024 [5] - Weak-cycle assets continue to attract attention due to risk aversion, suggesting a need to select individual securities based on asset resilience, secondary market prices, and P/NAV ratios [5] - Strong-cycle sectors should focus on policy themes and project management capabilities, particularly in high-energy cities where consumption, logistics, industrial parks, and highways show signs of recovery [5] REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs total return index decreased by 1.43% this week, closing at 1058.9 points, while the CSI REITs index fell by 1.83%, closing at 847 points [1][11] - Year-to-date, the CSI REITs total return index has increased by 9.41%, ranking second among various indices, while the CSI REITs index has risen by 7.27% [2][11] REITs Secondary Market Performance - The C-REITs secondary market experienced an overall pullback this week, with only the consumption infrastructure sector performing relatively well. The energy infrastructure and industrial park sectors saw significant declines [3][13] - As of April 25, the total market capitalization of listed REITs is approximately 189.51 billion, with an average market cap of about 2.9 billion per REIT. Out of the listed REITs, 19 increased in value while 46 decreased, resulting in an average weekly decline of 0.98% [3][13] REITs Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs shows continued differentiation, with the top three being Huaxia China Communications REIT (11.6%), Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT (10.9%), and CICC Anhui Transportation Control REIT (8.9%) [5] - The P/NAV ratio for REITs ranges from 0.7 to 1.8, with the highest being Jiashi China Power Construction Clean Energy REIT (1.8), Huaxia Beijing Affordable Housing REIT (1.7), and Huaxia Shouchuang Outlets REIT (1.7) [5]

今天A股和港股的表现，可以说超出绝大多数人的预期了，因为一早在《 女灭霸引爆美股 》里说的，关税冲突进一步加剧（今晚还在加剧，我 们再次加码反制），外围环境是在变差的，结果，在全球一片大跌，美股昨晚高位跳水10%的情况下， A股港股逆市翻红，强到离谱 。 今天A股80%以上的个股上涨，港股70%以上的个股上涨，而且，跌停个股数量，在上午9点40分后，快速回落，到收盘的时候，只有13只个股还 停在跌停板上，这说明， 市场的局部流动性危机，也彻底解除了 。 更令人比较惊讶的是， 今天国家队，甚至都没怎么出手 ——除了科创50一早有明显的放量外，其他几个宽基ETF，几乎都没怎么动。 代表小盘股的中证2000，开盘跌超7%，陷入危机模式，但没过1个小时，就直接拉红了，我了解了一圈，国家队还是没买这个方向——和过去一样，在市 值上，国家队选择的标的，最多还是只下沉到中证1000。 不过，这也说明了两个事。 第一， 市场 自发反弹的力量非常强； 第二， 国家队 本次的救市策略相当成功，在连续两日大额净买入托底，建立起市场的信心后，到了第三天，只需要上班打个卡，就撬动起了市场的杠杆 资金。 我们看昨天和今天的数据，也算是亲 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming LSEG 2025 Market Outlook Forum, focusing on the financial market trends and opportunities in China for the year 2025, emphasizing the importance of financial technology and data development [1][2]. Agenda Summary - The forum will feature prominent guests from various financial sectors, including banking, securities, insurance, asset management, fintech, and corporations, to discuss the outlook for the Chinese market in 2025 [2]. - The event will commence with a welcome speech addressing the recovery of the Chinese market and new opportunities in fintech and data development [2]. - David Day, President of LSEG Asia Pacific, will deliver a keynote speech analyzing the macroeconomic situation and policy outlook for 2025 [4]. - A series of roundtable discussions will cover various topics, including asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment, future trends of ETFs, the impact of AI on smart finance, and the internationalization process of Chinese institutions [5][6][19][21]. - The forum will also include a special session focusing on the uncertainties in the commodity market and strategies for futures market development [31][32]. Participants and Hosts - Notable participants include chief economists, fund managers, and executives from leading financial institutions, such as the Industrial Bank of China and Huatai-PB Fund Management [5][10][27]. - Each roundtable will have designated hosts to facilitate discussions, ensuring a comprehensive exploration of the topics [5][19][21]. Company Overview - LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group) is a leading provider of financial market infrastructure, serving over 40,000 clients across more than 170 countries with financial data, analysis, news, and index products [39]. - The company emphasizes its commitment to promoting financial stability, enhancing economic capabilities, and supporting sustainable growth through innovative financing and risk management solutions [39].

今日除息，港股红利ETF基金(513820)连续9个月分红！四月日历效应：高 股息相对占优！低利率环境，"长钱"看好港股红利 3月26日，"可月月评估分红"的港股红利ETF基金（513820）又带上了"XD"前缀，这是除息的标志，月底（3月31日）即可收息。从上次除息日 （2.25）至今的表现来看，基金填权能力强劲！ 盘中，港股红利ETF基金（513820）冲高回落，当前跌0.18%，盘中溢价持续走阔。基金已连续11日累计获资金净流入超7000万，最新规模突 破20亿元。 华泰证券表示，险资或普遍加大红利股配置力度：1）稳定现金收益率。代表现金收益（利息、股息和少量租金）的净投资收益率是险资投资收 益的中枢，2023年以来利率快速下行压低利息贡献，红利股有助于增厚股息贡献。2）降低利润波动。红利股本身波动性相对较低，且如果计入 FVOCI则不影响利润。认为险资红利策略有3条重要选股标准：稳定的DPS、较低的估值、一定水平的股息率。（来源于华泰证券20250221《险资红 利策略的三道主线》） 机构指出，当前在"避险需求+日历效应+长线配置需求"等多重利好因素驱动型，高股息配置逻辑边际走强！"股息富翁"港股红利 ...

先聊个和今天市场没啥关系的事儿哈，上周五，总局印发了《商业银行代销管理办法》，为什么要聊这个呢，我一说可能大家就记起来了。 去年6月初的时候，市场一则关于 银行不得再继续代销私募基金 的传言发酵，对市场的冲击非常大，当天小盘股大跌2%以上，我当时也聊了，说这个传 闻"不可能发生，更不应该发生"，原文我删了，大家也不用回头找了，但草稿箱里还有，开头这么说的，下图。 你可以理解为，当时的这个传闻，就是借着，这回这个办法的征求意见稿的名头，传播的。 很多人问，能不能解读一下这个办法，我觉得简单来说，核心就是4件事。 1、 银行可以继续卖私募 ，方法沿用现在的，通过TOF或者私募管理人担任投顾的模式； 2、银行代销出现的风险事件太多了，爆出来的很多，没爆出来的更多，在这个办法中，相比过往的文件， 不再有银行不承担代销产品的风险管理责任的 说法 ，换句话说，以后银行不能轻飘飘地说，自己只是代销的，风险都是管理人造成的了——这导致银行对代销的准入、退出等全生命周期，会变得更 加谨慎。 3、私募管理人，做银行准入的最低门槛，是 规模不低于3亿、成立不少于3年、且3年内没有接受过惩罚 ，这意味着，过去那种明星公募基金经理，出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article reviews the performance of the dividend style in 2024, analyzes the timing effects of the dividend style in a low interest rate environment from an overseas perspective, introduces dividend stock selection strategies and event effects, and provides an outlook on the future performance of the dividend style in the current low interest rate environment [1][10]. Group 1: Dividend Performance in 2024 - The dividend style showed strong performance in 2024, with excess returns relative to the CSI All Share Index from 2021 to 2024, indicating a stable return profile [3]. - Since the end of May 2024, there has been a degree of internal differentiation within the dividend style, with financial and utility sectors maintaining stability while cyclical sectors experienced some pullback [3]. - Insurance funds have increased their allocation to dividend assets, as evidenced by the top holders of dividend ETFs [3]. Group 2: Timing of Dividend Style - The analysis draws on experiences from the US, UK, Germany, and Japan to assess how dividend and growth styles perform in low interest rate environments [4][14]. - Both dividend and growth styles performed well in low interest rate environments, with annualized returns of 21%, 11%, 8%, and 10% in the US, UK, Germany, and Japan respectively [4][15]. - Growth style is more sensitive to interest rate changes, with dividend style potentially having an advantage during periods of rising low interest rates [4][17]. Group 3: Dividend Stock Selection Strategy - A constrained dividend selection strategy, limiting industry and market capitalization deviations to within 5% of the CSI Dividend Index, achieved a stable excess return of 4.74% in 2024 and an annualized excess return of 7.65% since 2010 [6][33]. - Companies announcing high dividend plans typically achieve excess returns around the announcement date, with a notable effect observed in the period leading up to the ex-dividend date [6][38]. Group 4: Outlook for Dividend Style - The overall outlook for the dividend style in a low interest rate environment is positive, with expectations of absolute returns driven by interest rate trends and the influx of medium to long-term capital [7][37]. - The anticipated decline in interest rates in 2025 may favor growth style, but the expansion of medium to long-term capital inflows could further boost the dividend style [7][36].