富宝有色网数据显示：2025年12月4日，富宝废铜价格指数81400元/吨，较昨日涨1300元/吨；富宝现货 铜（1#）价格91145元/吨，较昨日涨2085元/吨，直接精废价差9745元/吨，较昨日涨785元/吨，较前5日 均值（8470）涨1275元/吨，较近三月均值（7650）涨2095元/吨。富宝有色铜精废价差评估均值7350/ 吨，较昨日涨150元/吨；市场值价差2395元/吨，较昨日涨635元/吨。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：赵思远 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2025年12月4日，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。集运欧线涨超3%，国际铜涨近3%，沪铜、沪锡涨超 2%，焦炭、硅铁、纸浆、玉米涨超1%。跌幅方面，合成橡胶、烧碱跌近2%，沪银、玻璃、橡胶跌超 1%。 | 序号 | 合约各称 | 最新 | 现手 | 安价 | 卖价 | 消息器 | 天堂 | 관광 | 成为 | 球联 | 持仓量 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Morning session notice 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） 跌 减少 | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘主力合约期货价格下跌 4 元至 2122 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价格下 10 元至 2122 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 9328 手至 57.58 万手，空头持仓 41014 手至 64.85 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | 甲醇 | 发 震荡 | 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 89.1%，环比+0.37%。海外甲醇开工率 66.9%，环比 -5.8%。 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 134.94 万吨，较上一期数据减少 1.41 万吨。 其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 0.13 万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少 1.54 万吨。 中国甲醇样本生产企业库存 36.15 万吨，较上期减少 1.22 万吨，环比降 3.26%。 3、需求方面，西北甲醇企业签单 8.69 万吨，环比减少 0.19 万吨。样本企业订单待 23.97 万吨，较上期增加 0.90 万吨，环比增 3.90% ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rolled steel and wire rod: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile and weakening [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Volatile and bullish [4] - Silver: Volatile and bullish [4] - Logs: Consolidating at the bottom [5] - Pulp: Volatile [5] - Offset paper: Volatile [5] - Soybean oil: Range - bound [7] - Palm oil: Range - bound [7] - Rapeseed oil: Range - bound [7] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [7] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [7] - Soybean No.2: Volatile and bearish [7] - Soybean No.1: Volatile and bearish [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and bullish [10] - Rubber: Volatile [12] - PX: Wide - range volatile [12] - PTA: Volatile [12] - MEG: Weakly volatile [12] - PR: Hold and observe [12] - PF: Hold and observe [12] Core Views - The overall situation of the black industry shows an oversupply pattern, with weak domestic demand, and prices are mainly in a volatile state. The financial market has short - term adjustments but a positive medium - term trend. Precious metals are supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks. The forestry and paper industry has weak demand and supply pressures are gradually easing. The oil and oilseed market has uncertain demand prospects and supply is relatively abundant. The agricultural product market has supply - demand imbalances, and the soft commodity market has price fluctuations affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [2][4][5][7][10][12] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global shipments increased by 44.7 million tons to 33.232 billion tons, 47 - port foreign ore arrivals decreased by 155.5 million tons to 27.84 billion tons, daily average hot metal production dropped by 1.6 million tons to 2.3468 billion tons. The demand core lies in real estate, with new construction at 2005 levels. Port iron ore inventory rose slightly, reaching an 8 - month high. The supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse, and prices are in high - level volatility [2] - Coal and coke: On December 1st, the first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and there are still expectations of further cuts. After continuous declines, valuations are reasonable, and there was a bottom - rebound on Monday. There are concerns about supply resumption, but steel and coke enterprises still have restocking needs, providing short - term support at low levels [2] - Rolled steel and wire rod: Downstream demand is sluggish, and winter restocking has not started. The core lies in steel demand, with real - estate new construction at 2005 levels. Steel prices depend on strict implementation of a production cut of over 5% in Q4 2025 and the implementation strength of anti - "involution" policies, and are currently in bottom - level volatility [2] - Glass: There are supply - side disturbances, with rumors of postponed cold - repairs. Float glass inventory decreased, but real - estate completion decline drags down demand. Whether prices can stop falling depends on cold - repair progress [2] Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indices. Energy equipment and motorcycle sectors had capital inflows, while forestry and Internet sectors had outflows. China's November S&P composite PMI was 51.2, and the service PMI was 52.1. The market is in short - term adjustment but has a positive medium - term trend [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds rose by 1bp, and the central bank conducted 79.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 134 billion yuan. Bond prices had a small - scale rebound [4] - Precious metals: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting to central - bank gold purchases. It has strong currency, financial, and risk - aversion attributes. The current logic for the price increase remains unchanged, and factors such as the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term disturbances. Silver also has a volatile and bullish trend [4][6] Forestry and Paper - Logs: Last week, the average daily port shipment volume decreased by 0.31 million cubic meters to 6.13 million cubic meters. In October, the volume of New Zealand logs shipped to China increased by 2%, while China's coniferous log imports decreased by 4.67% month - on - month and 7.14% year - on - year. The expected arrival volume last week decreased by 48%. Port inventory decreased by 6 million cubic meters. Spot prices are weak, and the price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [5] - Pulp: The previous trading day's spot prices continued to be strong, with some prices of softwood and hardwood pulp rising. The latest foreign prices of softwood pulp remained stable, and hardwood pulp increased by $10 to $550 per ton. The cost support for pulp prices has strengthened, but the paper industry's profitability is low, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to return to volatility [5] - Offset paper: The previous trading day's spot prices were stable. Production is expected to be stable, and orders are expected to increase. Large - scale paper enterprises are firm in maintaining prices, and prices are expected to be volatile [5] Oil and Oilseed - Oils: U.S. soybean crushing reached a record high, but the U.S. biodiesel policy is uncertain. In October, Malaysian palm oil production and inventory were higher than expected, and exports in November decreased by 19.7% month - on - month. However, palm oil is supported by flood - induced production - reduction expectations and EU policy delays. Domestic soybean arrivals are large, and oil inventories are sufficient. Overall, oil prices are expected to continue range - bound trading [7] - Meals: U.S. soybean production, exports, and ending stocks have all been reduced, but the global supply is still relatively abundant. Sino - U.S. trade agreements may promote U.S. exports, but U.S. soybean prices are higher than Brazil's. Brazilian and Argentine soybean growing conditions are mixed. Domestic oil - mill operating rates are high, and soybean meal supply is sufficient. Demand is supported by high livestock inventories, but feed enterprises are cautious in purchasing. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [7] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight is showing a downward trend. Supply has increased due to farmers' accelerated sales, while demand is limited, causing settlement prices to decline. Slaughter - enterprise operating rates increased slightly but are expected to weaken next week. Pig - raising profitability has decreased, and the average weekly price is expected to continue to fall [10] Soft Commodities - Rubber: In Yunnan, raw - material prices are stable; in Hainan, output has decreased due to temperature. Thai raw - material prices rose, and Vietnamese supply is gradually recovering. Total inventory is low. Tire - enterprise capacity utilization decreased but will gradually recover. Automobile production and sales increased in October. Natural rubber inventory is in a significant accumulation phase, and prices are expected to be in wide - range volatility [12] - PX: In the long - term, crude - oil supply exceeds demand, and recent geopolitical factors have caused oil prices to rebound slightly. PX supply is high, but downstream polyester demand has increased, and PX prices are in wide - range volatility [12] - PTA: Oil - price fluctuations affect the PX end, and PTA's cost is unstable. Short - term supply - demand has improved, but seasonal weakening is inevitable. Processing margins are low, and prices are expected to follow cost fluctuations [12] - MEG: There is still long - term inventory - accumulation pressure, but the near - term situation has improved due to supply reduction. As port inventory rises, spot basis weakens, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile [12] - PR: Local supply is tight, and cost support remains. The polyester bottle - chip market may stop falling and stabilize [12] - PF: Oil - price increases and low factory inventories are favorable, but terminal orders are insufficient. The short - fiber market is expected to have limited fluctuations [12][13]

申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 无关。 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨，投资者应合 ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | | | | | | | | | | | 铅锌日评20251204：区间整理 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | | | | 变动 近期趋势 | | | | 2025/12/4 单位 | 今值 | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | | | | 0.15% | | | | 元/吨 17,075.00 | | | 沪铅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | | | | 0.00% | | | | 17,210.00 元/吨 | | | | 沪铅基差 | | | | 25.00 | | | | 元/吨 -135.00 | | | | 升贴水-上海 | | | | - | | | | 元/吨 25.00 | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 | | | | -0.82 | | | | -42.45 美元/吨 | | | 价差 | 升贴水-LME 3-15 | | | | 2.50 | | | | 美元/吨 ...

伊朗装置开始停车，港口内地共振反弹，基差小幅走强，卸货慢，港口连续两周去库，浮仓很多，预计后期回归 累库，11月伊朗发 运110w，预计12-1月进口下降较难，盘面01给进口无风险套机会，认为01终点仍是高库存，偏向逢高 做15反套。 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担 期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。未经我司授权，不得随意转 载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力 造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担 任何责任。 塑 料 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, presenting market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each commodity [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market performance shows copper prices rising, falling, and then stabilizing. The fundamentals include a weakening US dollar index and tight copper ore supply, with processing fees remaining low. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.21%. The fundamentals are that the supply is increasing slightly, and the demand is improving marginally. The trading strategy is that aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 0.26%. The fundamentals show that the supply is increasing, and the demand is stable. The trading strategy is that alumina prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price decreased by 1.86%. The fundamentals are that the supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is stable. The trading strategy is to maintain the view that the price will fluctuate between 8600 - 9400, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price decreased by 0.39%. The fundamentals are that the supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. The trading strategy is to wait and see due to strong current - weak Q1 expectations [1][2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract price decreased by 2.41%. The fundamentals are that the supply is stable, the demand is weakening, and the domestic fourth - quarter photovoltaic installation growth is under pressure. The trading strategy is to focus on the progress of the storage and procurement platform, and the price may fluctuate around 53000 - 55000 without new progress [2]. - **Tin**: The price fluctuated. The fundamentals are that the supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is stable. The trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract price decreased. The fundamentals are that the inventory is decreasing, the supply - demand is weak, and the futures are at a large discount. The trading strategy is to try short - selling the 2605 contract and short - selling the steel mill profit [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price decreased. The fundamentals are that the supply - demand is weakening, the iron ore is in a forward discount structure, and the valuation is moderately high. The trading strategy is to wait and see and short - sell the steel mill profit [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract price decreased. The fundamentals are that the supply - demand is weakening, the futures are at a premium, and the valuation is high. The trading strategy is to try short - selling the 2605 contract and short - selling the steel mill profit [3][4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean price fell. The fundamentals are that the supply is expected to be abundant in the long - term, and the demand is mixed. The trading strategy is to wait for a new driver, and the domestic market depends on tariff policy and production [4]. - **Corn**: The futures price rose and then fell. The fundamentals are that short - term supply is tight, but long - term supply is expected to increase. The trading strategy is that the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. - **Oils**: The Malaysian market rose. The fundamentals are that the supply is high in the short - term, and the demand is weak. The trading strategy is that the price is expected to be strong in the short - term but fluctuate overall, and attention should be paid to production and policies [4]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract price fell. The fundamentals are that the international market may decline in the long - term, and the domestic market will face pressure from increased production and imports in the fourth quarter. The trading strategy is to short in the futures market and sell call options [4]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price fluctuated narrowly. The fundamentals are that the international demand is weak, and the domestic market has hedging pressure. The trading strategy is to buy at low prices in the 13600 - 13900 range [4][5]. - **Eggs**: The futures and spot prices fell. The fundamentals are that the supply pressure is decreasing, and the demand is stable. The trading strategy is that the futures price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Hogs**: The futures price was weak. The fundamentals are that the supply is abundant, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally. The trading strategy is that the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract fluctuated slightly. The fundamentals are that the supply pressure is increasing but at a slower pace, and the demand is weakening. The trading strategy is to expect short - term weak fluctuations and recommend buying far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [6]. - **PVC**: The V05 contract price rose. The fundamentals are that the supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is high. The trading strategy is to short [6]. - **PTA**: The PX supply is high, and the PTA supply is expected to increase in the long - term. The demand for polyester is in the off - season. The trading strategy is to take profit on long PX orders and stop shorting the processing fee [6][7]. - **Rubber**: The RU2601 contract price fluctuated. The fundamentals are that the raw material price is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. The trading strategy is short - term weak fluctuations and band trading [7]. - **Glass**: The FG01 contract price fell. The fundamentals are that the supply is decreasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. The trading strategy is to wait and see [7]. - **PP**: The main contract fluctuated slightly. The fundamentals are that the supply is increasing, the demand is weakening. The trading strategy is short - term weak fluctuations and recommend buying far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [7]. - **MEG**: The spot price is stable. The fundamentals are that the short - term supply - demand is improving, and the medium - term supply - demand will accumulate inventory. The trading strategy is to short at high prices and take profit on short positions [8]. - **Crude Oil**: The price fell. The fundamentals are that the supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season. The trading strategy is to hold short positions [8]. - **Styrene**: The main contract rebounded slightly. The fundamentals are that the pure benzene supply - demand is improving marginally but the contradiction is still large, and the styrene supply - demand is improving. The trading strategy is short - term fluctuations and recommend buying styrene profit at low prices in the medium - term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa01 contract price rose. The fundamentals are that the supply is recovering, and the demand is stable. The trading strategy is to wait and see [8].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 农产品类 蛋白粕： 周二，CBOT大豆收跌，因缺乏支持性消息，且预期南美大豆将丰收。周二美国农业部没有新的大单公 告，市场继续衡量美豆出口前景。另外，市场也在关注黑海地区的航运风险。近期乌克兰多次用无人机 袭击两艘驶往俄罗斯游轮，涉及葵花籽油的船只，市场质疑俄罗斯运输安全。作为反制，俄罗斯总统表 示要切断乌克兰的出海通道。国内方面，豆粕期货延续窄幅震荡走势，现货价格涨跌互现。市场成交略 增，观望情绪浓厚。当前基本面变化不大，豆粕去库进程平滑，基差延续弱势。策略上，蛋白粕震荡思 路，单边区间思路，做空波动率，月间反套。 油脂： 周二，BMD棕榈油上涨，因印度棕榈油进口增加。贸易商表示，印度11月棕榈油进口量环比增长 4.6%。而且其表示，印度买家正在增加近月船期的棕榈油采购，因为棕榈油价格几乎比大豆油便宜100 美元/吨，12月印度的棕榈油进口量或攀升至75万吨。国内方面，棕榈油领涨，跟随进口成本走高。钢 联数据，市场新增1条买船。油脂库存处于高位，远期供应较高，预计基差维持弱势。现货市场成交清 淡，油脂震荡偏强思路。策略上，短多参与。 生猪： ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-3 纸浆大幅拉升，或因利空前期充分交易 油脂：近日棕油和豆油相对偏强 蛋白粕：内外盘期价震荡，豆菜粕价差或扩大 玉米/淀粉：东北华北价格分化，期货维持震荡 生猪：供应充裕，价格趋弱 天然橡胶：维持小幅震荡 合成橡胶：原料出口消息点燃市场激情，基本面变化不大 棉花：棉价持续反弹，套保压力限制上方空间 白糖：糖价震荡徘徊，供应压力边际增大 纸浆：期货大幅拉升，或因利空前期充分交易 双胶纸：原料端反弹，双胶纸向上修复 原木：原木反弹修复估值 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 农业团队 研究员： 刘高超 从业资格号：F3011329 投资咨询号：Z0012689 王聪颖 从业资格号：F0254714 投资咨询号：Z0002180 吴静雯 从业资格号：F3083970 投资咨询号：Z0016293 李艺华 从业资格号： F03086449 投资咨询号： Z0019380 程也 从业资格号： F03087739 投资咨询号： Z0019480 周重廷 从业资格号：F03093821 投资咨询号：Z0020578 刘 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is continuously speculating on the implementation expectations of price increases in the second half of December and January, and the EC futures market maintains a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the subsequent market booking situation [5]. - It is expected that the trading logics of the December and February contracts will diverge. The December contract follows the price in the second half of December, while the February contract focuses on the expected price increase and its implementation in January. The spread between the two contracts is uncertain, and the improvement in cargo volume needs to be tracked [6]. - The second - stage peace talks are expected to be tortuous. It is difficult to resume large - scale shipping before the Spring Festival, but the probability of resumption after the Spring Festival may gradually increase [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Container Shipping - Freight Index (European Line) 3.1.1 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On December 2, EC2512 closed at 1,633.6 points, down 0.19% from the previous day. The SCFI European Line on November 28 was reported at $1,404/TEU, up 2.7% month - on - month. The latest SCFIS European Line reported after Monday's market close was 1,483.65 points, down 9.5% month - on - month, slightly lower than market expectations [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: - **Spot Market**: MSK released a quote of $2,400 for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in week 51, up $200 from last week. Some shipping companies have announced price increases for the second half of December, with online quotes ranging from $2,800 to $3,500 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The demand for shipping from December to January is expected to gradually improve. The weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the 5 Nordic ports in December is 283,200 TEU, and the weekly average capacities in January and February 2026 are 298,800 TEU and 280,500 TEU respectively [6]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The second - stage peace talks are expected to be difficult, and it is hard to resume large - scale shipping before the Spring Festival. The number of return ships passing through the Suez Canal is expected to gradually increase, and the probability of resumption after the Spring Festival may rise [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: - **Single - side Trading**: Hold long positions in EC2602 and pay attention to the rhythm of shipping companies' price increases and cargo volume improvement [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider partial profit - taking on the 2 - 4 positive spread [8]. 3.1.2 Industry News - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in November was 48.2, lower than the market expectation of 49, and it has been in the contraction range for nine consecutive months [10]. - HMM, South Korea's largest liner company, signed a shipbuilding order worth approximately $1.445 billion to build 8 dual - fuel container ships of 13,400 TEU, which are expected to be delivered in the first half of 2029 [10]. 3.2 Related Attachments - The report includes multiple figures showing the trends of various shipping indices and container freight rates, such as SCFIS European Line Index, SCFIS US West Line Index, SCFI Composite Index, and container freight rates for different routes [12][15][17].