Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Different industries have distinct market conditions and investment logics, with various factors such as import - profit, tariffs, supply - demand, and seasonal factors influencing their performance [1][2][3][6] - Attention should be paid to policy changes, supply - demand rhythm differences, and price differentials in different industries for potential investment opportunities Summary by Category Import Profit/Price Differential - On July 9, 2025, M - grade US cotton with 141% tariff had an import profit of - 19150, Brazilian soybean crush margin in March was - 4, and palm oil import profit in September was - 398 [1] - Energy products like high - sulfur had an internal - external price differential of - 10, low - sulfur had 17, SC - WTI had 4, and SC - DUBAI had 1 - For non - ferrous metals, nickel spot import profit was - 2437, zinc three - month import profit was - 1295, and copper spot import profit was - 537 - Precious metals had a gold internal - external price differential of 661 [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Understand logistics margins, major importers, and resource dependence for non - ferrous metals internal - external arbitrage - Focus on fourth - quarter internal - external reverse arbitrage for aluminum [1] Iron Ore - Proximal shipments have declined from high levels, arrivals have recovered slowly, iron - water production has decreased from high levels, and the ore price center has dropped - There are few internal - external price differential opportunities in the short term, with the core being to capture the discount of continuous iron futures - The global balance sheet is relatively surplus compared to China's [2] Oil Products - SC: Warehouse receipts increased, internal - external prices weakened, and the August OSP remained stable - FU: Maintained a weak internal - external pattern in summer, and internal - external prices weakened rapidly due to a large increase in Zhoushan delivery goods - LU: Internal - external prices oscillated at high levels, waiting for an increase in domestic production - PG: The July CP official price was unexpectedly low, the external price dropped, and the internal - external price differential strengthened significantly. With the expected increase in PDH operation, propane is strong; civil gas prices are suppressed, and a positive - arbitrage approach is recommended [3] Agricultural Products - Cotton: Due to trade wars and sanctions, the internal and external cotton markets are decoupling, and the strength relationship between US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton has reversed with tariff policy changes. Follow - up tariff policies should be continuously monitored - Oilseeds and oils: These products have a high import dependence, and attention should be paid to the difference in internal and external supply - demand rhythms [6] Precious Metals - RMB exchange - rate fluctuations support the internal - market price, causing the internal - external price ratio to decline rapidly - The silver spot discount has widened, and the import window is closed [7] PX - Domestic PX operation has rebounded to a high level, and there are still some overseas maintenance. With the subsequent restart of TA, PX is in a de - stocking state, and the valuation has been somewhat restored. Currently, it is advisable to wait and see [8]

Group 1 - The oilseed market experienced fluctuations this week, influenced by policies, weather, and supply-demand factors, with a trend of rising and then falling prices [1] - The U.S. has passed a tax amendment that prohibits the use of non-North American raw materials for biofuel tax credits, which is expected to benefit local raw material consumption [1] - The upcoming U.S. Environmental Protection Agency hearing on bioenergy policies for 2026-2027 will significantly impact the oilseed market [1] Group 2 - The protein meal market is facing neutral pressure from old soybean inventories, while new crop acreage is shrinking, raising concerns about dry weather [1] - Domestic protein meal prices are under pressure, with strategies suggesting potential long positions in soybean meal [1] - The egg futures market showed a slight increase of 1.1% for the main contract, but demand is weakening, leading to a price correction [1] Group 3 - U.S. corn prices are under pressure due to increased acreage and high yield expectations, with a 7% decrease in corn inventories compared to last year [1] - Domestic corn prices are also declining, with a weak futures market and strong spot prices [1] - The pig market saw an increase in prices, with the average price reaching 15.5 yuan/kg, up 0.84 yuan/kg from the previous week [1]

Group 1: Metals and Minerals - Copper (CU): Spot price is 79,500, with a month - to - month basis rate of 0.44%. The settlement price of the current - month contract is 78,300, and the price change compared to yesterday is 795 [4]. - Aluminum (AL): Spot price is 20,630, basis rate is 1.18%. The price change compared to yesterday is 455, and the current - month contract price is 20,390 [4]. - Zinc (ZN): Spot price is 22,000, basis rate is 0.92%. The price change compared to yesterday is 200, and the current - month contract price is 21,520 [4]. - Lead (PB): Spot price is 16,920, basis rate is - 1.00%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 165, and the current - month contract price is 16,925 [4]. - Tin (SN): Spot price is 265,300, basis rate is 0.29%. The price change compared to yesterday is 770, and the current - month contract price is 264,280 [4]. - Nickel (NI): Spot price is 120,725, basis rate is 0.88%. The price change compared to yesterday is 755, and the current - month contract price is 119,970 [4]. - Industrial Silicon: Spot price is 8,700, basis rate is 11.95%. The price change compared to yesterday is 795, and the current - month contract price is 7,355 [4]. - Iron Ore: Spot price is 863, basis rate is 8.07%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 23, and the current - month contract price is 704.5 [4]. - Coke: Spot price is 1,392.5, basis rate is - 4.90%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 67.2, and the current - month contract price is 1,371 [4]. - Coking Coal: Spot price is 980, basis rate is 23.19%. The price change compared to yesterday is 184.5, and the current - month contract price is 795.5 [4]. - Power Coal (ZC): Spot price is 801.4, basis rate is - 23.01%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 184.4, and the current - month contract price is 617 [4]. - Silicon Iron (SF): Spot price is 5,292, basis rate is - 1.85%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 202, and the current - month contract price is 5,090 [4]. - Manganese Silicon (SM): Spot price is 5,622, basis rate is - 2.07%. The price change compared to yesterday is 266, and the current - month contract price is 5,584 [4]. - Stainless Steel: Spot price is 12,750, basis rate is 4.76%. The price change compared to yesterday is 145, and the current - month contract price is 12,530 [4]. - Glass (FG): Spot price is 1,130, basis rate is 15.31%. The price change compared to yesterday is 89, and the current - month contract price is 980 [4]. Group 2: Agricultural Products - Soybean (A): Spot price is 4,242, basis rate is - 6.65%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 170, and the current - month contract price is 4,130 [4]. - Soybean Meal (M): Spot price is 3,073, basis rate is - 6.40%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 223, and the current - month contract price is 2,850 [4]. - Rapeseed Meal (RM): Spot price is 2,671, basis rate is - 4.90%. The price change compared to yesterday is 159, and the current - month contract price is 2,374 [4]. - Soybean Oil (Y): Spot price is 8,300, basis rate is 4.27%. The price change compared to yesterday is 724, and the current - month contract price is 7,960 [4]. - Rapeseed Oil (OI): Spot price is 9,650, basis rate is 1.53%. The price change compared to yesterday is 466, and the current - month contract price is 9,374 [4]. - Peanut (PK): Spot price is 9,400, basis rate is 13.31%. The price change compared to yesterday is 1,306, and the current - month contract price is 8,296 [4]. - Palm Oil (P): Spot price is 8,790, basis rate is - 0.59%. The price change compared to yesterday is 532, and the current - month contract price is 8,372 [4]. - Corn (C): Spot price is 2,391, basis rate is 0.89%. The price change compared to yesterday is 68, and the current - month contract price is 2,312 [4]. - Corn Starch (CS): Spot price is 2,781, basis rate is 0.52%. The price change compared to yesterday is 20, and the current - month contract price is 2,720 [4]. - Apples (AP): Spot price is 7,800, basis rate is 2.50%. The price change compared to yesterday is 177, and the current - month contract price is 7,610 [4]. - Eggs (JD): Spot price is 5,666, basis rate is 27.41%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 1,069, and the current - month contract price is 3,660 [4]. - Live Pigs: Spot price is 14,250, basis rate is 3.41%. The price change compared to yesterday is 670, and the current - month contract price is 13,780 [4]. - Cotton (CF): Spot price is 13,530, basis rate is 9.53%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 1290, and the current - month contract price is 14,820 [4]. Group 3: Chemicals - Methanol (MA): Spot price is 2,630, basis rate is 2.20%. The price change compared to yesterday is 166, and the current - month contract price is 2,464 [4]. - Ethanol (EG): Spot price is 4,455, basis rate is 0.10%. The price change compared to yesterday is 81, and the current - month contract price is 4,323 [4]. - PTA: Spot price is 5,000, basis rate is 4.91%. The price change compared to yesterday is 234, and the current - month contract price is 4,766 [4]. - Polypropylene (PP): Spot price is 7,370, basis rate is 3.32%. The price change compared to yesterday is 237, and the current - month contract price is 7,059 [4]. - Polyester Staple Fiber (PF): Spot price is 6,530, basis rate is 0.31%. The price change compared to yesterday is 94, and the current - month contract price is 6,442 [4]. - Plastic: Spot price is 7,350, basis rate is 0.16%. The price change compared to yesterday is 12, and the current - month contract price is 7,338 [4]. - PVC (V): Spot price is 5,405, basis rate is 11.21%. The price change compared to yesterday is 486, and the current - month contract price is 4,860 [4]. - Rubber (RU): Spot price is 14,825, basis rate is - 0.07%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 925, and the current - month contract price is 13,900 [4]. - 20 - number Rubber (NR): Spot price is 12,315, basis rate is 1.28%. The price change compared to yesterday is 420, and the current - month contract price is 12,055 [4]. - Soda Ash (SA): Spot price is 1,214, basis rate is 3.41%. The price change compared to yesterday is 40, and the current - month contract price is 1,174 [4]. - Urea (UR): Spot price is 1,750, basis rate is 1.57%. The price change compared to yesterday is - 175, and the current - month contract price is 1,723 [4]. - Pulp (SP): Spot price is 6,133, basis rate is - 0.71%. The price change compared to yesterday is 16.28, and the current - month contract price is 5,232 [4]. Group 4: Energy and Others - Crude Oil (SC): Spot price is 524.6, basis rate is - 6.05%. The price change compared to yesterday is 3.3, and the current - month contract price is 505.5 [4]. - Fuel Oil: Spot price is 3,497, basis rate is 0.33%. The price change compared to yesterday is 221, and the current - month contract price is 3,079 [4]. - Asphalt (BU): Spot price is 3,800, basis rate is 3.63%. The price change compared to yesterday is 301, and the current - month contract price is 3,499 [4]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): Spot price is 3,946, basis rate is 1.85%. The price change compared to yesterday is 117, and the current - month contract price is 3,260 [4]. - LPG (PG): Spot price is 4,698, basis rate is 6.82%. The price change compared to yesterday is 488, and the current - month contract price is 4,275 [4]. Group 5: Financial Index - CSI 300 (IF): Spot price is 3,873.8, basis rate is 0.10%. The price change compared to yesterday is 4.0, and the current - month contract price is 3,869.8 [4]. - SSE 50 (IH): Spot price is 2,685.0, basis rate is 0.25%. The price change compared to yesterday is 6.6, and the current - month contract price is 2,637.6 [4]. - CSI 500 (IC): Spot price is 5,767.8, basis rate is 0.01%. The price change compared to yesterday is 11.6, and the current - month contract price is 5,582.0 [4].

Summary of Commodity Market Outlook and Strategy Analysis Industry Overview - The report focuses on the sugar market, particularly the white sugar sector, and discusses the broader agricultural commodity market including corn and oilseeds. Key Points on Sugar Market - **Market Characteristics**: The white sugar market in 2024 is characterized by a bearish trend, testing production costs across various regions, with prices fluctuating from 20 cents to 16 cents per pound [1][3]. - **Brazil's Production Impact**: Brazil's rainfall in Q1 2025 was poor, affecting sugarcane growth, but April's rainfall returned to historical averages. Sugar production is expected to decrease by 1.8%, with total crushing estimated at 590 million tons and sugar output around 4 million tons [1][6]. - **Global Supply Dynamics**: The global sugar supply is shifting from a tight balance to a more relaxed state, with India and Thailand's new sugar seasons expected to yield optimistic results, potentially increasing global sugar availability [1][7][8]. - **Domestic Market Conditions**: China faces a sugar deficit of approximately 4.9 million tons, with over 2 million tons still unresolved. The domestic market is influenced by new syrup policies and the potential recovery of market share by beet sugar [1][10][11]. - **Price Projections**: International sugar prices are expected to fluctuate between 14 to 20 cents per pound, while domestic prices are projected to range from 5,500 to 6,200 yuan, indicating a narrow trading range [1][14][15]. Key Points on Corn and Other Commodities - **Corn Market Outlook**: The corn market is at a cyclical low, with expectations of a supply-demand gap persisting. The market outlook remains positive for Q2 and Q3, despite rising cost pressures as new corn enters the market [1][17][18]. - **Oilseed Market Trends**: The oilseed market is currently unclear, with rising import costs affecting price levels. The demand from Chinese oil mills will significantly influence the market dynamics [1][28][29]. - **Soybean Market Dynamics**: The soybean market is expected to see a decrease in imports, with domestic supply remaining ample. The overall sentiment is cautious, with procurement strategies being conservative due to fluctuating profitability [1][31][34]. Additional Insights - **Syrup Policy Effects**: The introduction of new syrup policies has led to significant changes in the market, impacting the supply chain and price trends. The long-term effects of these policies need further observation [1][11][12]. - **Weather Impact on Production**: Weather conditions, particularly rainfall in key producing regions, will play a crucial role in determining future production levels and market prices [1][6][7]. - **Market Sentiment and Speculation**: The market is currently experiencing speculative trading, with participants closely monitoring policy changes and weather forecasts to gauge future price movements [1][14][19]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the complexities and interdependencies within the agricultural commodity markets, particularly focusing on sugar and corn, while also addressing broader market trends and potential investment strategies.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of the pig market continues to put pressure on pig prices, but the decline in the first quarter was weaker than expected. The second quarter will continue to focus on supply pressure, and there is a risk of compression in pig prices and breeding profits [3][4]. - Policy support for the corn market is nearing its end, and in the fourth quarter, it will be tested whether downstream consumption can support prices [5]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the global oilseed and fat market first rose and then fell, with the domestic market outperforming the international market. The second quarter will continue to be troubled by trade uncertainties, and attention should be paid to changes in biodiesel policies [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents First Part: Factors Affecting the Pig Market in the Second Quarter - Pig prices in the first quarter were stronger than expected, but supply pressure still exists. The terminal demand entered the off - season after the Spring Festival, and pig prices oscillated at a low level [3][4]. - Affected by the change in the mentality of the breeding side, the price of piglets first rose, then fell, and then rose again in the first quarter [3]. - The inventory of breeding sows decreased for two consecutive months. If this trend continues, the supply pressure in the second half of the year will be substantially improved [3]. - In the first quarter, the slaughter weight of pigs first decreased and then increased. The import volume of pork decreased as domestic pig prices were at a low level [3][4]. - The breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising decreased, while that of purchasing piglets increased. The slaughter opening rate was higher than the same period last year, but it was not driven by the increase in terminal demand [4]. - In the futures market, pig prices stabilized and rebounded in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the supply pressure of increased inventory will continue to affect spot pig prices and long - term trading sentiment [4]. Second Part: Analysis of Factors Affecting the Corn Market - From January to March, the prices of US wheat and corn first rose and then fell. Affected by weather, policy, and other factors, the CBOT grain futures prices declined jointly [5]. - The spot price of domestic corn rose with the futures price. By the end of March, the average domestic corn spot price increased by 163 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of January. After mid - March, due to multiple negative factors, the futures and spot prices of corn fell back [5]. - The 5 - month contract of corn oscillated repeatedly at the 2300 - yuan integer mark, and the market was worried about the lack of upward space in the future. Pay attention to the price performance of the 5 - month corn futures price at the previous support level of 2260 [6]. - The supply of new - season corn is expected to increase, and the inventory in the quarterly report at the end of March decreased by 2.4% compared with the same period. The ratio of US soybeans to corn is at a low level, which is conducive to the expansion of corn planting area [15][29][39]. - Affected by policies and other factors, the import of corn and its substitutes decreased in 2025, which increased the consumption of domestic corn. In the second quarter, the problem of limited supply of imported corn and substitutes will still appear periodically [52]. - In early April, the average price of wheat in the main producing areas decreased. The price of wheat followed the rise of corn in March and continued to oscillate weakly in April. The supply of wheat was relatively abundant, and the downstream demand was weak [55]. - In mid - April, the operating rate of the corn starch industry decreased, and the processing in Shandong was in a state of loss. The contradiction in the starch market was prominent, and the support from the demand side was insufficient [56]. Third Part: Analysis of Factors Affecting the Soybean Meal Market - The global oilseed and fat trade pattern has changed. Brazil supplies soybeans to China, the EU, etc., the US supplies soybeans to other regions, and Canadian rapeseed competes for the US soybean market [105]. - China's pig industry has strong demand for replenishment, which increases the demand for feed. The price is strong in stages, and the supply pressure is postponed [112]. - From January to February 2025, the feed output increased year - on - year, and the consumption of soybean meal also increased [116]. - The inventory of soybeans in China showed an inflection point in April, but the soybean procurement of oil mills from June to September was slow [119]. - The spot basis of soybean meal weakened, and the inter - month spread changed from backwardation to contango [121]. Fourth Part: Outlook for the Future Market - In the second quarter, pay attention to tariffs and weather for the US corn market. The policy support of CGC is nearing its end, and it will be tested whether downstream demand can accept high - priced raw materials [66][68]. - Russia's corn production has decreased, and the toxin content in domestic corn is high. The CBOT corn has emerged from the trough. In the future, Sino - US relations will determine the country of import and the rhythm [70]. - In the first quarter, the price of US corn rebounded to the profit range. The market expects an increase in the sown area of new - season corn, and the area will be confirmed in June [77]. - In the first quarter, the spot price of corn rebounded, and the futures price followed. The basis of the 3 - month and 5 - month contracts returned to normal. In the second quarter, the market will speculate on the sowing and cost changes of new - season grain [84]. - In 2024, the cost of corn planting decreased by 15 - 20%. The market expects the cost of corn planting in the new year to decrease by 100 - 150 yuan/ton [90]. - The by - products of starch rose and fell alternately. In 2024, the spread between starch and corn mainly widened. In 2025, pay attention to starch exports and the substitution of tapioca starch [97]. - In 2024, the supply of corn exceeded demand, and the price declined all the way. In 2025, it remains to be seen whether the strengthening of supply and demand can drive the price to rise continuously [102].