美国初请人数下降，与鲍威尔的说法一致 金十数据5月8日讯，美国上周初请失业金人数有所下降，此前正值春季假期和4月底的复活节假期，初 请人数曾出现短期飙升。截至5月3日当周，初请失业金人数减少1.3万人，至22.8万人。这与经济学家的 预测中值大致相符。上周续请失业金人数也下降至188万人。这表明尽管在关税和特朗普政府缩减联邦 政府的行动带来了连锁反应，经济不确定性增加，但裁员水平依然较低。美联储主席鲍威尔周三表示， 尽管关税可能导致失业率和通胀率上升，但劳动力市场仍然稳固。"人们感到压力和担忧。但失业率没 有上升，创造就业机会情况良好，工资状况良好。""初请失业金人数并没有以任何令人惊讶的方式增 加。因此，经济本身仍处于稳健状态，"鲍威尔说。 ...

什么是经济的确定性？ 似乎没什么标准，也就是这么一说，中国2024年GDP增速计划指标为5%，结果也实现了这个明确的目标，为5%．这应该就是确定性了。 什么又是不确定性？ 比如，林毅夫预测中国将在2049年人均GDP将达到美国人均GDP的50%； 这就很不确定，因为我们可以计划自己，计划不了美国。去年九月，几乎所有的 核心指标都有不达预期的倾向，于是，加发了12万亿超长期特别国债，各地方与国企一起努力，不排除有国企刷业绩的现象，结果不多不少刚好实现经济增 速5%的确定性。追求这样的确定性，实际上很危险，它不过是行政意志干预下的确定性，而不是市场经济由无数不确定因子碰撞出来的确定性，前者是对 真实市场的扭曲，会引起误判，后者才是经济内生力的证明。 就像计划经济时代的大炼钢铁，为了完成确定的计划目标，全民总动员，家里的吃饭锅都上交了，当年宣布钢产量1108万吨，但合格的钢只有800万吨，结 果带来了极大不确定性，大量的生产用具被一炉烩了，森林砍伐破坏了资源，资金使用出现混乱，产业结构失衡，大量低质的土铁无法使用，占用人力、资 源与资金，不具有可持续性。更大的不确定性是农村劳动力被抽走，农耕没有跟上，水利工程迟缓， ...

继续缩表。 要点： 美联储连续三次会议暂停降息，符合市场预期。 声明称，经济不确定性"进一步"增加，新增语句"失业率上升和通胀上升的风险已增加"。 声明重申最近指标显示经济活动仍稳健扩张，但指出净出口波动已影响数据。 本次决议得到全体FOMC票委支持，未像上次有一人反对。 "新美联储通讯社"：联储官员在考虑重点是就业的风险还是通胀的风险。 美国总统特朗普再次失望。尽管他一再喊话呼吁降息，美联储还是选择观望，并未降息，还暗示特朗普的政策有引发滞胀的风险。 美东时间5月7日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后宣布，联邦基金利率的目标区间保持4.25%至4.5%不变。这是美联储连续第三次货币政策会议 决定暂停行动。联储自去年9月起连续三次会议降息，合计降幅100个基点，自今年1月特朗普上任以来，联储一直暂停行动。 本次美联储暂停降息完全在市场意料之中。到本周二收盘，芝商所（CME）的工具显示，期货市场预计联储本周保持利率不变的概率超过95%，6月也不 降息的概率超过68%，7月约有77%的概率降息。周三美联储决议公布前，衍生品市场定价显示，交易员削减降息押注，预计从7月开始，今年约有三次25 个基点的降息。 上 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. airline industry had high hopes for 2025, but actual passenger demand has fallen short of initial expectations, leading to several airlines, including American Airlines, to withdraw their financial forecasts for the year [1][2] Group 1: Financial Forecasts and Performance - American Airlines announced the withdrawal of its 2025 performance forecast on April 24, following similar actions by Southwest Airlines, Delta Airlines, Alaska Airlines, and JetBlue [1] - The stock price of American Airlines dropped over 1% on the announcement day, with a year-to-date decline of 47%, significantly outpacing the S&P 500 index [1] - Initially, American Airlines projected an adjusted earnings per share of $1.70 to $2.70 and revenue growth of 4.5% to 7.5% for 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Demand - The decline in travel demand is attributed to economic uncertainties, with leisure travel being considered an elastic expenditure [1][2] - CEO Robert Isom noted a significant drop in domestic leisure travel demand starting in February, despite good performance in late 2024 and early 2025 [1] - March data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated a 5.3% year-over-year decrease in airfare prices [1] Group 3: Industry Responses - Southwest Airlines and United Airlines have announced plans to reduce flight schedules for the latter half of 2025 due to declining demand [3] - Delta Airlines has paused its expansion plans for 2025 after reassessing market conditions, citing stagnant revenue growth due to declining consumer and business confidence [3] - JetBlue has reduced its capacity for the second quarter, anticipating continued weakness in non-peak travel demand [3] Group 4: International Travel Trends - Canadian airlines reported a 10% drop in bookings to the U.S. for spring and summer 2025, with a 70% decrease in bookings from April to September [3] - Smaller airlines have also reduced operations to the U.S. and shifted capacity to domestic markets in Canada [3] Group 5: Economic Implications - Recent cancellations of trips to the U.S. by international tourists are seen as a reaction to the Trump administration's trade policies, highlighting the emotional and behavioral impacts on economic activity [4]

Group 1 - The report "2025 Global Leadership Forecast | China Report" analyzes the current state and future of leadership in China, highlighting challenges and opportunities faced by leaders and HR professionals [1][8] - Key challenges include increased global economic uncertainty, with Chinese CEOs primarily concerned about economic recession and building resilient organizations [1][34] - There is a notable lack of confidence among Chinese leaders in adapting to new technologies, with significant differences in leadership evaluation across different levels, indicating a risk of leadership gaps at the grassroots and middle management levels [1][35] Group 2 - Talent management issues are prevalent, with insufficient talent readiness, weak succession planning, and a lack of development for high-potential talent being significant concerns [1][72] - Companies are facing challenges in international expansion, particularly in manufacturing, due to legal and cultural differences, necessitating clear strategies and the cultivation of international talent [1][8] - The application of artificial intelligence is gaining attention, but leaders are not adequately prepared to drive technology adoption within their teams, highlighting the need for enhanced employee capabilities [1][8] Group 3 - The workplace environment is critical, with issues like employee burnout and "quiet quitting" needing attention; organizations must build resilience [2] - HR's role is evolving from being reactive to proactive, utilizing data-driven talent management to create integrated talent management systems [2][8] - Organizations and leaders must actively address these challenges by enhancing leadership quality, optimizing talent management, and strengthening organizational resilience [2][8]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant increase in short-term debt issuance by companies in April, driven by economic uncertainty stemming from the Trump administration's tariff policies [1] Group 1: Debt Issuance - In April, non-financial commercial paper issuance surged by $100 billion, exceeding the average monthly issuance of $27 billion from 2019 to 2024 (excluding 2020) [1] - The spread between the highest-rated notes (referred to as Tier 1 bonds) and Treasury bills reached its widest level since August 2022 [1] - The spread between lower-rated notes (referred to as Tier 2 bonds) also hit its highest level since June 2023 [1]

埃克森美孚石油(XOM.N)：经济不确定性加剧，欧佩克可能增加供应的威胁对价格和利润率造成压力。 ...

韩国代理总统李周浩：将努力降低经济不确定性。 ...

Core Insights - The ADP employment report for April indicates a significant slowdown in job growth, with an increase of only 62,000 jobs, the slowest pace in nearly nine months, falling short of the expected 115,000 jobs and down from the previous month's 155,000 jobs [2][3] Employment Changes by Sector - Job growth in the goods-producing sector was 26,000, while the service-providing sector added 34,000 jobs [4] - Notable declines were observed in education and health services (-23,000), information (-8,000), and professional/business services (-2,000) [4] - The leisure and hospitality sector saw an increase of 27,000 jobs [4] Regional Employment Changes - The Midwest region experienced the highest job growth with 42,000 jobs added, while the South saw a minimal increase of 3,000 jobs [4] - The New England area reported a loss of 33,000 jobs, contrasting with the Middle Atlantic's gain of 43,000 jobs [4] Employment by Establishment Size - Small establishments (1-19 employees) added 20,000 jobs, while medium establishments (50-249 employees) contributed 21,000 jobs [4] - Large establishments (500+ employees) added 12,000 jobs, indicating a more cautious hiring approach among larger firms [4] Wage Growth Insights - Job switchers experienced a wage growth of 6.9%, the highest since December 2024, while those remaining in their positions saw a wage increase of 4.5%, slightly down from March [6] Economic Context - Economic uncertainty is impacting employer hiring decisions, with concerns about policy and consumer uncertainty [3] - The labor market is described as "mixed," with some sectors experiencing job losses while others see moderate hiring [11] - Consumer sentiment remains cautious, with worries about rising unemployment and stagnant income growth [8]

美国公司的招聘在4月份放缓，为去年7月以来的最低增幅，显示出在经济不确定性中对工人的需求减 弱。虽然ADP数据显示招聘有所回落，但失业救济申请仍接近疫情前的平均水平，表明裁员仍然处于低 位。经济不确定性，包括特朗普关税影响以及消费者对未来一年失业率上升的担忧，可能导致未来几个 月劳动需求减弱。 ...