日本经济再生大臣、首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正与美国财长贝森特进行了电话会谈。美国与日本同意继续就关税问题进行积极的磋商。日本继续寻求与美国达成互利共赢的协议。 ...

Group 1 - The EU is negotiating with the US to finalize a preliminary trade agreement before August 1 to avoid higher tariffs on key industries [1][3] - The focus of the negotiations includes excluding high-value export goods such as aircraft, wine, and spirits from the 10% tariff [1][3] - The EU aims to protect its core industries and gain leverage in longer-term negotiations while seeking a buffer period for local industries [1][3] Group 2 - The EU's strategy is a response to the Trump administration's announcement of tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on various goods, while maintaining a 10% baseline tariff for the EU [3][4] - The aviation industry is crucial for the EU, involving multiple countries like Germany, France, and Spain, and higher tariffs could harm profitability and high-skilled jobs [3][4] - Wine and spirits are significant exports for countries like France and Italy, and increased tariffs could lead to a loss of market share to competitors like Australia and Chile [3][4] Group 3 - Even if a preliminary agreement is reached, the EU's challenges remain due to the unpredictable nature of Trump's trade policies [4][5] - The EU's concessions reveal its passive stance in negotiations, lacking a unified diplomatic strategy and facing internal pressures [4][5] - The future of negotiations hinges on whether the EU will make concessions in certain industries for overall stability and whether the US will impose additional structural demands post-agreement [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. President Trump announced a plan to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, starting August 1, which has led to immediate responses from the affected nations and raised new challenges in international trade relations [1][2][4]. Group 1: Responses from Affected Countries - Japan expressed "regret" over the U.S. decision but remains open to negotiations, indicating potential modifications to the tariff letter before the deadline [2][3]. - South Korea vowed to expedite tariff negotiations with the U.S. to resolve trade uncertainties swiftly [3][4]. - Thailand's finance minister expressed shock at the tariff rates but is confident in reducing them to levels similar to other countries [4][5]. - Malaysia and Myanmar are also seeking to engage with the U.S. to negotiate fair trade agreements or lower tariffs [5][6]. Group 2: Specific Country Reactions - South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa challenged the accuracy of the tariff calculations, asserting that there are discrepancies in trade data interpretation between the two nations [6][7]. - Brazil's President Lula criticized the U.S. tariffs as "wrong and irresponsible," emphasizing that other countries could retaliate with equivalent tariffs if the U.S. proceeds [7][8]. Group 3: Broader Implications - Despite various countries actively seeking to resolve the crisis through dialogue, previous efforts have not significantly influenced the final outcomes, leading to increased uncertainty in future trade relations [1][7].

免责声明 局势升温或带动金价反弹。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 加速全球去美元化进程，削弱美元作为传统避险资产的需求，提振黄金货币属性。中长期而言，美国财政 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F3082507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 赤字持续扩大、美元信用边际弱化、全球央行储备调整趋势未改，构成黄金价格的核心支撑，短期内关税 贵金属产业日报 2025-07-08 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 776.22 | 4.92 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8953 | 81 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日, ...

Core Viewpoint - Germany's exports have declined for the second consecutive month, with a significant drop of 7.7% in exports to the U.S., marking the lowest level in over three years, highlighting the ongoing impact of tariff threats on Europe's largest economy [1][3]. Group 1: Export Data - In May, Germany's goods exports fell by 1.4% month-on-month, exceeding the expected decline of 0.5% [1]. - Exports to the U.S. plummeted by 7.7%, with a value of €12.1 billion, the lowest since March 2022 [3]. - In April, U.S. tariffs had already caused a decline of approximately 10% in German exports to the U.S. [3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Joachim Nagel, the President of the German Central Bank, warned of significant short-term economic challenges, with the bank projecting that the German economy will stagnate this year [4][5]. - Despite the challenges, there is some optimism due to the German government's plans to significantly increase defense and infrastructure spending [6]. Group 3: Trade Negotiations - The EU is actively seeking to alleviate tariff pressures through trade negotiations, aiming to lock in a 10% tariff rate before the August 1 deadline [4][8]. - Reports indicate that the EU is close to reaching a preliminary trade agreement with the U.S. to secure a 10% tariff rate, with no indication of increased tariffs for the EU [9]. Group 4: Economic Performance - In the first quarter, Germany's GDP grew by 0.4%, surpassing expectations, partly due to exporters increasing shipments before U.S. tariffs took effect [7]. - Recent data showed an unexpected rise in Germany's industrial output in May, supporting hopes for the economy to recover from years of stagnation [7].

Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Iron ore (short - term), Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Bitumen, Shanghai stocks, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Styrene, Cotton (domestic, long - term), Corn (near - term), Soybean (far - month C01) [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Stainless steel, Steel, Coke, Coking coal, Coke breeze, Rapeseed oil, Cotton (domestic, short - term), Sugar, Pulp, Live pigs, PE, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping secondary line [1] Core Views The report provides trend judgments and logical analyses for various commodities in different sectors. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data (e.g., US non - farm payrolls), geopolitical situations (e.g., Middle East tensions), supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillating movements, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors for each commodity [1]. Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume gradually shrinks slightly, and with mediocre domestic and international positive factors, there is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Market uncertainties remain. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate mainly. Attention should be paid to tariff developments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Base Metals**: Due to factors such as the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and inventory changes, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, etc., have downward risks. Nickel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After an oscillating rebound, the sustainability needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to raw material changes and actual steel - mill production [1] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a downward risk, and polysilicon is affected by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment [1] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Supply has not been reduced, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital gaming. The price oscillates [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: Macro uncertainties remain. With raw material price weakening, social inventory slightly declining, and steel - mill production reduction news boosting confidence, the market situation is complex. The sustainability of stainless - steel rebound needs to be observed [1] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes oils to follow the decline of crude oil. In the long term, international oil demand increases, and the far - month contracts of palm oil are bullish [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums. In the long term, macro uncertainties are strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio and production [1] - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is affected by policy - based grain releases and price differences. Soybeans have different trends for near - and far - month contracts, depending on factors such as supply - demand and trade policies [1] - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has low valuation and macro - positive factors. Logs are in the off - season, and supply decline is limited [1] - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous repair of pig inventory, the market shows a certain stability [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation and OPEC +'s unexpected production increase, crude oil, fuel oil, etc., have downward risks [1] - **Petrochemical Products**: PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and production - reduction expectations [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR rubber is under pressure due to factors such as OPEC's production increase and high basis [1] - **Plastics and Chemicals**: PE, PVC, caustic soda, etc., show different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand, and market sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Affected by factors such as price cuts, production increases, and seasonal demand, it has downward space [1] Other - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach its peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend from July to August. The subsequent shipping capacity is relatively sufficient [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights a rare consensus between China and the U.S. in responding to the EU's stance, indicating a shift from persuasion to a more aggressive approach [1] - The EU is facing internal divisions under significant political and economic pressure, with leaders like former German Chancellor Merkel urging unity against U.S. tariffs [3] - The U.S. has imposed high tariffs on EU products, including 50% on steel and aluminum and 25% on automobiles, with threats of further increases if negotiations fail [3] Group 2 - The EU is adopting a tough stance not only against the U.S. but also against China, with demands for China to cease economic cooperation with Russia amid the ongoing conflict [5] - China has responded to EU measures by imposing anti-dumping duties on EU brandy, ranging from 27.7% to 34.9%, effective for five years [7] - The Chinese government has also taken countermeasures against EU restrictions on medical device procurement, indicating a direct response to EU barriers [9] Group 3 - The EU's strong resistance against both the U.S. and China is influenced by complex member state interests and a belief in its ability to act as a global counterbalance [11] - Internal conflicts within the EU are surfacing, particularly between member states like Poland and Germany, which could affect the EU's unified response to external pressures [12] - The EU's strategic focus is primarily on addressing U.S. pressures before dealing with China, although the potential for a sudden agreement with the U.S. remains [12]

日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正：在与我们就贸易问题进行谈判时，不会设定包括8月1日在内的最后期限。 ...

·新湖期货表示，美国白宫表示将签署行政命令，将原定于7月的关税截止日期延长至8月1日，贸易谈判 的不确定性仍然存在，对金价形成一定支撑。短期来看，美国关税谈判态度并不强硬，秉承的并非想要 施压而是想要达成谈判的态度，关注美欧关税谈判结果，金价可能会维持高位震荡，逢低加仓策略仍然 有效。中长期来看，央行购金具有持续性，加全球货币的泛滥和去美元化趋势，将继续支撑金价中枢上 行，后续黄金可能仍偏强。 ·新湖期货：贸易谈判的不确定性仍然存在金价可能会维持高位震荡 ·铜冠金源期货：预计短期贵金属价格波动可能加大 ·银河期货：预计贵金属整体将易涨难跌 ·Tai Wong：美元的强势反弹在一定程度上限制了金价的上涨空间 ·Heraeus：央行持续购买黄金预计将支撑年内金价表现 【机构分析】 ·铜冠金源期货表示，虽然特朗普将原定7月9日的关税谈判截止期推迟至8月1日，但征税函第一波来 袭，宣布对日韩加征关税，避险需求上升助推金价缩减跌幅。目前关税不确定性依然是风险因素，预计 短期贵金属价格波动可能加大。 ·银河期货表示，继非农展现出韧性之后，美国将关税暂停期暂时延长到8月1日，一度缓解了市场的避 险情绪，但随后很快宣布了对包 ...

Group 1 - Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods imported from Japan and South Korea starting August 1, which has led to significant market reactions, including a drop in U.S. stocks and declines in Japanese and Taiwanese futures [1][8] - The tariff threat reflects stalled trade negotiations between the U.S. and both countries, with Trump using this as leverage to pressure Japan and South Korea into concessions [3][4] - Japan's negotiations have been particularly challenging, with both sides unable to agree on key terms, leading to a breakdown in talks [4][6] Group 2 - Japan has expressed willingness to increase investments in the U.S., particularly in the energy sector, but has faced additional demands from Trump that complicate negotiations [6][4] - South Korea's negotiations are hindered by political instability, with the new administration under Lee Jae-myung struggling to secure favorable terms from the U.S. [7] - The impending tariffs pose a significant threat to the economies of both Japan and South Korea, which are heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. market [8]