贸易谈判
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工业品波动有所下降:申万期货早间评论-20250811
申银万国期货研究· 2025-08-11 00:53
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in industrial products, highlighting the recent changes in CPI and PPI, and the impact of supply chain issues on key commodities like lithium carbonate and rubber [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth [1][5]. - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [1][5]. Group 2: Key Commodities Lithium Carbonate - Supply disruptions due to mining permit delays and temporary shutdowns at major mines are expected to cause significant volatility in lithium carbonate prices [2][19]. - Chile's lithium salt exports are projected to reach 28,800 tons LCE by July 2025, a 40% increase month-on-month and a 22% increase year-on-year, with lithium carbonate exports accounting for 73% of this total [2][19]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for the first time since late May, but still stands at approximately 142,000 tons [2][19]. Rubber - Improved weather conditions in production areas have put downward pressure on raw rubber prices, with demand remaining weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption [2][14]. - The market is closely monitoring the progress of US-China trade negotiations, as this could impact rubber prices [2][14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing a stable trading environment, with minor fluctuations in trading volumes and prices [3][20]. - The supply of coking coal has decreased slightly, while iron water production remains stable, indicating limited fundamental contradictions in the market [3][20]. Group 3: Industry News - The top 100 real estate companies in China have invested a total of 578.3 billion yuan in land acquisition from January to July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [6]. - The article suggests that the investment confidence among these companies has been effectively restored, with ongoing government support for real estate policies [6]. Group 4: External Market Performance - The article provides a summary of external market performance, including the S&P 500 and other indices, indicating a mixed performance in global markets [8]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, while oil prices experienced a minor decline, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and market adjustments [8][11]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The article notes that soybean meal prices are under pressure due to concerns over supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [21]. Oilseeds - Oilseed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with palm oil facing limited pressure due to low inventory levels in Indonesia, despite a recovery in production [22]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The article highlights the recent performance of the European shipping index, which has shown a slight increase, but overall rates are expected to decline as the market adjusts to seasonal trends [23].
贝森特称“绝大部分”美国贸易谈判将在10月前完成
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-11 00:09
这一表态是在美国总统特朗普大范围的新关税政策生效后作出的,给仍在寻求更有利条款的贸易伙伴带 来了更大的紧迫性。包括加拿大、墨西哥和瑞士在内的一些主要贸易伙伴仍在寻求与美国达成更有利的 条款。 值得注意的是,作为财政部长,贝森特在特朗普第二任期内的政策影响力正日益凸显。 美国财长贝森特为悬而未决的贸易谈判设定了新的时间表。 据媒体8月11日报道,美国财政部长贝森特上周四在接受媒体采访时表示,预计到10月底前将基本完成 与尚未达成贸易协议国家的谈判。 据央视新闻报道,当地时间8月8日,白宫官员证实,比利·朗将在上任不到两个月后卸任美国国税局局 长一职,贝森特将暂代国税局局长。报道指出,此次人事变动正值特朗普政府的新关税政策生效仅数 日,且距离包含大规模减税和支出计划的新法案签署刚满一个月。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。 ...
被特朗普征50%关税,印度怒了:暂停购买美国新武器和飞机,防长取消访美!莫迪将访华,中方:欢迎
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-09 06:58
Group 1 - Recent trade negotiations between India and the US have stalled due to disagreements over tariffs and non-tariff barriers, with the US imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, raising the total tariff rate to 50% [1][7] - The Indian government has expressed that the US's actions are "unfair, unjust, and unreasonable," and has indicated it will take necessary actions to protect national interests [1] - In response to the high tariffs, India has decided to suspend its plans to purchase US military equipment, including "Striker" armored vehicles and "Javelin" anti-tank missiles [2][5] Group 2 - The US had a trade deficit of approximately $45 billion with India last year, importing $87 billion worth of goods from India while exporting $42 billion worth of goods to India [7] - Indian Prime Minister Modi emphasized the importance of supporting local manufacturing, stating that India must remain vigilant regarding its economic interests [7] - Indian businesses in the US are struggling due to the increased tariffs, with reports of significant declines in sales and profitability, particularly in the jewelry and grocery sectors [8][10] Group 3 - Modi held a phone conversation with Russian President Putin, reaffirming India's commitment to deepening strategic ties and inviting Putin to visit India later this year [11] - Discussions between India and Russia included cooperation in various sectors such as rare earth mining, industrial infrastructure, and aerospace technology [12] - Modi is expected to visit China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, which may influence India's diplomatic stance amid rising tensions with the US [14]
约旦工业协会回应美方加税:成衣业受影响,进口汽车价格或将下调
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-08-09 03:25
Core Viewpoint - The recent decision by the United States to impose a 15% tariff on certain Jordanian exports, which previously enjoyed zero tariffs, significantly impacts the garment industry, particularly knitwear. The food industry, with its local resource base and growth potential, should be prioritized for future development [1] Group 1: Impact on Industries - The garment industry is the most affected sector due to the new 15% tariff on exports to the U.S. [1] - The food industry is highlighted as having local resource advantages and growth potential, suggesting a shift in focus for future investments [1] Group 2: Trade Relations - Jordan primarily imports cars, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals from the U.S. [1] - Future U.S.-Jordan trade negotiations are expected to cover various aspects of imports, which may lead to a decrease in the prices of American cars in the Jordanian market [1]
贸易谈判远未结束!多国疯抢美国关税豁免
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-08-08 03:27
美国的贸易伙伴正游说白宫,希望获得大范围新关税的豁免。这些新关税于周四生效,但各国都在设法 减轻特朗普重塑全球贸易的举措对本国经济的冲击。 这场外交行动表明,尽管白宫近一个月来高调宣布了一系列协议,但已持续数月的贸易谈判远未结束。 欧盟、日本和韩国等已与特朗普达成协议,但其谈判代表仍在幕后与美国官员沟通,为重要出口行业争 取更多减免。目前已有数十项豁免和例外条款获批,涉及巴西橙汁和智利铜矿等产品。 与此同时,谈判代表们正努力厘清美国的关税计划。在迄今达成的多项协议中,许多关键细节尚未敲 定,有时双方的解读甚至存在差异。 特朗普在社交媒体上谈及午夜生效的对等关税时表示,"数十亿美元的关税正流入美国"。 他周三称,进口半导体的关税将设定在100%左右,但对苹果等在美国投资制造业的公司豁免。此前承 诺对药品等其他敏感行业加征的新关税尚未正式宣布。 这种混乱局面以及特朗普为追求各种政治目标而随意调整关税的倾向,意味着美国庞大国内市场的准入 不确定性正成为新经济秩序的一大特征,对企业投资、招聘和价格产生连锁影响。周三,特朗普称,为 了惩罚印度购买俄罗斯石油,将对印度进口商品额外加征25%的关税,叠加已有的25%关税。 ...
美国对印度征收50%关税,莫迪首次回应!
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-07 18:08
Group 1 - The U.S. has announced a 50% tariff on Indian imports, which includes an additional 25% tariff on products imported from India, making it one of the highest tariffs imposed by the U.S. on any country [3] - India's Ministry of External Affairs has stated that the U.S. actions are "unfair, unjust, and unreasonable," and India will take necessary actions to protect its national interests [3] - The trade deficit between the U.S. and India was approximately $45 billion last year, with the U.S. importing $87 billion worth of goods from India, including pharmaceuticals and electronics [3] Group 2 - The trade negotiations between the U.S. and India have stalled due to disagreements over tariffs and non-tariff barriers, despite India making concessions such as not imposing tariffs on U.S. industrial goods [4] - Agriculture and related sectors employ over 45% of India's workforce, making it politically sensitive for Prime Minister Modi to concede to U.S. demands in these areas [4] - Modi emphasized the importance of supporting Indian-made products and maintaining economic vigilance, responding to U.S. criticisms regarding India's economic dependency [4]
南非总统与美总统就双边贸易问题通电话
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-08-07 16:35
Core Points - South African President Ramaphosa and US President Trump held a phone conversation on bilateral trade issues, agreeing to continue discussions on trade negotiations [1] - A new round of US tariffs is set to take effect on August 8, with South Africa facing a 30% tariff rate, the highest among sub-Saharan African countries [1] - South Africa's exports to the US account for approximately 7.5% of its total exports, primarily consisting of intermediate goods for US industries and agricultural products [1] - The new tariffs may reduce South Africa's economic growth rate by 0.2%, potentially affecting around 30,000 jobs [1] - In response to the economic impact, the South African government has initiated several measures, including establishing an export support platform and promoting export market diversification [1]
特朗普再加征关税,莫迪近期将访华
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-07 03:05
Group 1 - The U.S. has imposed an additional 25% tariff on goods from India in response to India's continued import of Russian oil [1][2] - The overall tariff on Indian goods entering the U.S. will reach 50% after the new measures take effect [2] - The U.S. government claims that India's purchase of Russian oil supports Russia's military efforts, prompting the tariff increase [2][3] Group 2 - India's Ministry of External Affairs has criticized the U.S. tariffs as unfair and unreasonable, asserting that oil imports are based on market factors for energy security [2] - The U.S. previously encouraged India to import Russian oil to stabilize global energy markets amid the Ukraine conflict [2] - Indian Prime Minister Modi is scheduled to visit China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, which may influence India's diplomatic stance amid U.S. pressures [3][5]
特朗普施压台积电“极限二选一”?
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-08-06 03:47
"无论是买下英特尔49%的股权,还是再追加4000亿美元的投资,对于台积电来说,都是非常为难的要 求。" 日前,美国总统特朗普签署行政令,确定了对多个贸易伙伴征收的所谓"对等关税"税率,其中台湾地区 税率为20%,高于贸易竞争对手日本、韩国的15%。此一消息已引发台湾业界的焦虑。 这一消息也在台湾引发了广泛的讨论。有人质疑"要台积电出钱,股东肯定不会同意""英特尔就是扶不 起的阿斗,连陈立武都救不起来"。也有网友直接点出责任归属问题,"全台企业都遇到的问题,却推给 一家公司解决""台积电就牺牲一下,救救台湾地区吧"。但有观点质疑道,"不论是美国政府、IC设计大 厂乃至于英特尔本身都未必愿意(向台积电出售股权),因为英特尔不会让亚洲人入主。" 长期以来,特朗普一直宣称要利用关税来刺激包括芯片生产在内的国内制造业投资。在特朗普多次施压 之下,台积电已宣布计划在未来几年内,把在美国的投资已追加至1650亿美元,用于在亚利桑那州建造 六座半导体工厂、两座封装工厂以及一座研究中心。 但当地时间8月5日,特朗普在接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)《财经论坛》(Squawk Box) 节目采访时却宣称,台积电将在美国 ...
中国王牌果然有效,美欧爆发四大争吵,欧洲女王这回不好当了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-05 08:16
中国手中掌握的稀土资源一旦展现出来,立刻产生了显著的效果。美国立刻表现出软化的姿态,显示出中国在这个谈判中的底气。然而,就在中美之间的局 势看似有所缓和之际,欧洲这边却风起云涌,瞬间引发了四场激烈的争论。这不禁让向来被称为"欧洲女王"的冯德莱恩感到忧心忡忡,她的处境如今可谓日 益艰难。 要理解这一切的背后原因,得从之前的关税谈判讲起。早在中美之间启动关税谈判之前,欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩曾访问过中国。在那次中欧贸易良好分歧 的谈判之中,她采取了极为强硬的态度,丝毫不肯让步,结果可想而知,中欧的谈判彻底宣告失败。之后她转身前往与美国总统特朗普的会晤,竟然对其表 现出如同投降一般的姿态,为了迎合特朗普的利益,牺牲了欧洲大量的商业利益。放着与中国达成互利协议不选择,反而选择签订对欧洲极为不利的协议, 自然有不少人开始怀疑,冯德莱恩是否实际上是美国在欧洲的"内应"。 然而,这桩协议签订没多久,局面便悄然生变。中国在与美国的关税谈判中依旧保持着一贯的强硬态度。在美国企图通过各种方式威胁中国的这一次,依然 无果而终。中国手中掌握的稀土资源可并非简单的筹码,它在关键时刻能够发挥巨大的作用。正因如此,美国在与中国的关税谈判中不 ...