| 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 美东时间 12 月 18 日，美国劳工统计局公布 11 月 CPI 通胀数据：同比来看，整体 CPI 录得 2.7%，较 9 月 下行 0.3 个百分点，核心 CPI 录得 2.6%，较 9 月回落 0.4 个百分点。环比数据因联邦政府停摆导致价格采 集受限，相关读数未能正常披露。 评论： 图1：11 月 CPI 通胀数据总览 | 行业类别 | | 11月CPI分项同比 | | | | 11月CPI分项环比 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

周五，尽管日本全国CPI上升且市场对日本央行加息的预期升温，但日元仍小幅走低。 近期日本国债收益率大幅上升——日本公共债务占GDP的比重约为250%，居世界首位——加剧了人们对日本财政状况恶化的担忧，尤其是在首相高市早苗 推出大规模支出计划之后。这可能会限制日元的任何反弹。 美国方面，劳工统计局周四公布的数据显示，11月份消费者物价指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，低于预期的3.1%。此外，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核 心CPI也低于预期，上月上涨2.6%。 CA Markets分析这些数据表明，通胀压力可能正在降温，足以让美联储进一步放松货币政策。事实上，交易员预计美联储将在2026年降息63个基点。美国总 统特朗普表示，下一任美联储主席将是一位支持大幅降息的人。 这与日本央行鹰派的预期形成鲜明对比，应该会支撑低收益的日元。然而，最初的市场反应是短暂的，这使得美元维持在周四触及的周高点附近，并支撑了 美元/日元汇率。 在风险情绪回暖之际，日元多头正在等待更多关于日本央行未来政策走向的线索。 美元无视美国CPI数据走软的影响，但美联储鸽派预期可能会限制其上行空间。 周五亚洲时段，日元遭遇新的抛售压力，并跌至 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock markets rose, following the overnight gains in US stocks, with the Nikkei 225 index up over 1% and the MSCI Asia-Pacific index increasing by 0.6% [1] - US inflation data cooling has strengthened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, contributing to a 0.8% rise in the S&P 500 index and a 1.5% increase in the Nasdaq 100 index [1][2] - Major contributors to the Asia-Pacific market included technology giants like SoftBank Group and Tencent Holdings [2] Group 2: US Inflation Data - The US consumer price index (CPI) for November rose by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the 3.1% predicted by economists, marking the lowest growth rate since early 2021 [2] - This data has boosted investor confidence and supported US Treasury bonds amid rising expectations for a Fed rate cut [2] - Concerns were raised regarding the reliability of the inflation data due to a temporary government shutdown affecting data collection [2] Group 3: Japanese Central Bank Actions - The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, while signaling potential further tightening if economic conditions allow [1][3][4] - Following the announcement, the Japanese yen weakened against the dollar, and the 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose to 2%, the highest since 2006 [1][7] Group 4: Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market faced pressure, with gold prices dropping by 0.1% to below $4,330 due to the stronger dollar and lower inflation expectations reducing gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [1][10] - Silver prices increased by 0.4%, nearing $66, while platinum rose by 0.5% to around $1,925, and palladium fell by 1.1% [10][14] - Oil prices continued to decline amid global oversupply expectations, with Brent crude and WTI both down by 0.3% [1][10]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Current spot gold trading around $4319.20 per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.28% [1] - Gold prices fluctuated between a high of $4336.33 and a low of $4308.59 during the session [1] - Short-term outlook for gold appears to be sideways [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Chair Candidates - Three candidates interviewed by President Trump to succeed Fed Chair Powell, all favoring lower interest rates but differing on other monetary policy aspects [2] - Candidate Waller, an influential figure, advocates for a low-rate and conservative operational model for the Fed [2] - Hassett, a core member of Trump's circle, optimistic about policy impacts, suggesting potential GDP growth could exceed 3%-4% [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Strategy - Current resistance zone for gold is identified between $4320 and $4330, suggesting a potential short position [4] - Support levels are noted at $4300-4290, with a recommendation to consider long positions near $4290 [4] - A significant resistance level at $4380 must be breached for bullish sentiment to continue [5][6]

Group 1: Inflation Overview - The U.S. November CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, while core CPI rose by 2.6%, both below market expectations[2] - Overall inflation shows a significant downward trend, with November CPI down 0.3 percentage points from September, and core CPI down 0.4 percentage points[3] - Core service inflation is a key driver of the overall inflation decline, with a notable decrease in core service inflation contributing to the unexpected drop in CPI[4] Group 2: Energy and Food Inflation - Energy prices rose by 4.2% year-on-year in November, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from September, while food prices increased by 2.6%, down 0.5 percentage points from September[4] - Core goods inflation showed a slight decline, with core goods year-on-year growth decreasing by 0.15 percentage points compared to September[4] - The significant drop in core service inflation, particularly in housing, is a major factor in the overall CPI decline[21] Group 3: Future Inflation Trends - Inflation levels are expected to continue declining, with core inflation remaining a critical factor; the super core service inflation (excluding housing) decreased to 2.7% year-on-year in November[5] - The high base in December 2024 may lead to further declines in overall inflation levels, with core inflation potentially stabilizing or decreasing[5] - The uncertainty remains regarding whether businesses will raise prices in 2026 as the Fed's rate cuts begin to support the economy[5] Group 4: Federal Reserve Implications - The importance of inflation risk in Federal Reserve decision-making may decrease, as inflation trends show a clear downward trajectory and public inflation expectations are also declining[5] - Despite the decline in inflation, the Fed is unlikely to implement significant rate cuts in the short term, as inflation may not reach the 2% target until 2027[6] - The Fed is expected to monitor economic conditions closely, with a potential for 1-2 rate cuts in 2026, primarily in the second half of the year[6]

日内将可关注美国12月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值及美国12月一年期通胀率预期终值等数据，市场 预期好坏参半，但根据通胀降低也会减弱黄金避险需求和昨日走盘来看，今日大概率还是震荡波动为 主。操作上，预计也是多空都有机会。 日图；金价近日震荡回升表现，但仍未突破趋势线阻力去进一步打开上行空间，这使得后市仍有遇阻回 调走低的预期，不过方向上，仍是看涨，故此，短期操作现以震荡波动为主，长线或波段操作，要么回 撤触及中轨线和60日均线支撑进多，要么突破趋势阻力刷新新高持稳收线顺势跟进。 今日周五，黄金开盘继续先行偏弱运行，受到近日的调整压力，以及美元指数近日的止跌回升走盘的压 力，但金价仍维持在回升趋势中，市场暂也无明显且持续的利空压力，故此，如有回撤触及支撑位，也 是看涨入场的机会。 但较长期方向，未来一年左右周期，金价的方向看涨和目标触及5000美元的观点仍还是暂时未有改变， 一方面，就业市场表明美联储应继续降息。美联储多位官员近日也表达了后续还有降息空间，这使得金 价仍还是处于降息周期中的看涨预期中。 另一方面，再加上地缘政治紧张局势升级，央行的持续买盘等多重因素的合力推动，所以，操作上，短 期看调整，长期还是 ...

新华财经北京12月19日电（王姝睿）美国劳工部18日发布的数据显示，今年11月美国消费者价格指数 （CPI）同比上涨2.7%，低于9月的3%，10月数据因联邦政府"停摆"而未公布。 这一数据的放缓可能并不能全面体现通胀趋势，因11月数据收集工作延迟，恰逢零售商提供假日折扣。 11月美国核心CPI则同比上涨2.6%，较9月的3.0%也有所放缓。 美联储上周降息25个基点，但同时表示在劳动力市场和通胀方向更明确前，借贷成本短期内不太可能进 一步下降。 市场注意力现已转向后续数据的验证，以及美联储官员如何解读此次可能受技术因素干扰的通胀报告。 惠誉评级的美国经济研究主管Olu Sonola表示，需要等到下个月才能更清楚地了解通胀状况。 虽然数据噪音较大，目前机构更倾向于认为美国通胀温和发展态势不会出现较大意外。Annex Wealth Management首席经济策略师布莱恩·雅各布森表示，一些人可能会将这份通胀报告视为"比往常更不可 靠"而置之不理，但忽视它需自担风险。租金成本和二手车价格等其他指标都与"旧有的通胀驱动因素已 非当前通胀源头"这一说法相符。当前通胀的源头非常明显，但在消费者篮子中占比不大。美联储可 ...

在通胀方面，剔除生鲜食品后的消费者物价指数（CPI）同比涨幅近期维持在约3%。日本央行强调，随 着工资上涨持续向销售价格传导，基础性CPI通胀继续呈现"温和上升态势"。央行判断，"工资与价格同 步温和上涨的机制将得以维持"，并认为在2025年10月《经济活动与物价展望》预测期后半段，基础性 CPI通胀率"大体与2%的价格稳定目标相一致"的基准情景可能性正在上升。 新华财经北京12月19日电 12月19日，日本央行结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将政策利率由0.5% 上调至0.75%，加息幅度为25个基点。此举使日本政策利率达到30年来的最高水平。根据会议声明，该 决定获得政策委员会全体委员一致通过。 与此同时，日本央行对货币市场操作指引作出相应调整。央行明确表示，将引导无担保隔夜拆借利率维 持在约0.75%的水平，并同步修订相关利率工具： 补充性存款便利适用利率设定为0.75%，适用于金融机构在日本央行往来账户余额中扣除法定准备金后 的部分；基本贷款利率（补充性贷款便利项下）设定为1.0%。 在经济评估方面，日本央行指出，当前日本经济整体呈现"温和复苏态势"，但局部仍存在疲弱。劳动力 市场持续偏紧，企业利润总 ...

Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in November, lower than the expected 3.1%, indicating ongoing affordability challenges for households due to rising prices of essential goods and services like beef and electricity [1] - The report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) noted that the CPI increase slowed, partly due to a 43-day federal government shutdown that delayed data collection until late November, coinciding with holiday season discounts from retailers [1] - White House officials welcomed the report, with economic advisor Hassett stating that the U.S. economy is showing high growth and declining inflation, while Chicago Fed President Goolsbee highlighted positive aspects of the latest CPI data, suggesting it could pave the way for further rate cuts next year if the trend continues [1] - Economists cautioned against over-interpreting the report, while additional data showed a decrease of 13,000 in initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13, adjusted to 224,000, indicating stable labor market conditions in December [1] - Gold prices fell as the market absorbed the lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data, reducing gold's appeal as an inflation hedge, although rising unemployment rates provided some support, with spot gold down 0.2% to around $4,331.89 per ounce [1] Technical Analysis - The current gold price (XAUUSD) is viewed as having initiated a new upward wave from the support level of 4,170, with expectations for a fifth wave upward following a corrective phase [4] - The overall trend indicates that gold has completed a prolonged period of consolidation and has confirmed a breakout, showing a stepwise upward movement [4] - The MACD indicator suggests a decrease in trading volume, and the recommendation is to focus on long positions during dips [4] Trading Strategy - For gold, a long position is suggested around 4,308.0, with a stop loss at 4,288.0 and a target range of 4,328.0 to 4,348.0 [5] - For silver (XAGUSD), a new upward movement has started from the support level of 56.40, currently in a corrective phase, with expectations for a follow-up upward movement [7] - The MACD indicator shows that bullish momentum is significantly stronger than bearish momentum, and the recommendation is to focus on long positions during dips for silver as well [7]

Group 1 - The US stock market saw a collective rise on December 18, with major technology stocks performing well, particularly the Trump Media Technology Group, which surged by 41.93% after announcing a merger agreement with TAE Technology [1][2] - Tesla's stock increased by over 3%, adding approximately $53.6 billion (around 377.4 billion RMB) to its market capitalization [2] - The merger between Trump Media Technology Group and TAE Technology will be executed through an all-stock transaction, with both companies' shareholders expected to own about 50% of the combined entity post-merger [2] Group 2 - The latest data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November rose by 2.7% year-on-year, which was lower than the market expectation of 3.1% [4] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2.6%, marking the lowest level since early 2021 and also below the anticipated 3% [4] - Following the CPI report, there was a slight increase in the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in January, with traders estimating a 28.8% chance of a 25 basis point cut, up from 26.6% prior to the inflation data release [4] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs' global co-head of fixed income and liquidity solutions, Kay Haigh, stated that the low inflation data would not impact the Federal Reserve's decision-making, as they are more focused on the December CPI data set to be released in mid-January [5]