纽约期金向上触及3400美元/盎司，日内涨0.68%。 黄金行情爆发中，一键布局买入黄金等避险资产>>> ...

6月2日，现货黄金跳空高开，重新站上3300美元关口。 上周五，据央视新闻报道，特朗普称6月4日起把进口钢铁关税提高至50%，贸易局势再度发生变化。 当地时间5月30日，美国总统特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州举行的一场集会上表示，将把进口钢铁的关税从25%提高至50%。随后，特 朗普在社交媒体平台上发文表示，该决定从6月4日起生效。 美国白宫当天在社交媒体上发布公告称，"为进一步保护美国钢铁行业免受外国和不公平竞争的影响，从下周起，美国进口钢铁 关税将从25%提高至50%。" 特朗普2月10日签署行政命令，宣布对所有进口至美国的钢铁和铝征收25%的关税。当地时间3月12日，特朗普对所有进口至美 国的钢铁和铝征收25%关税的举措正式生效。 贸易局势的动荡不安，使得市场的避险情绪迅速升温。投资者们纷纷将目光投向黄金这一传统的避险资产，寻求资产的安全港 湾。在此背景下，黄金市场也呈现出不同的走势。 从纽商所黄金期货主力合约的表现来看，5月该合约小幅下跌，跌幅约为0.11%。不过，若将时间轴拉长，今年以来国际金价的 累计涨幅却相当可观，达到了约25.5%。这一数据充分显示出，尽管短期内黄金价格可能会有所波动，但在全球经济不确定 ...

30年国债ETF博时(511130)多空胶着，最新报价110.95元。流动性方面，30年国债ETF博时盘中换手9.89%，成交7.56亿元。拉长时间看，截至6月3日，30年 国债ETF博时近1月日均成交23.01亿元。 2025年6月4日，国债期货午盘多数下跌。30年期主力合约跌0.09%报119.340元，10年期主力合约跌0.03%报108.635元，5年期主力合约跌0.02%报105.940元， 2年期主力合约涨0.01%报102.366元。 截至6月3日，30年国债ETF博时近1年净值上涨14.44%，指数债券型基金排名3/389，居于前0.77%。从收益能力看，截至2025年6月3日，30年国债ETF博时自 成立以来，最高单月回报为5.35%，最长连涨月数为4个月，最长连涨涨幅为10.58%，涨跌月数比为9/5，上涨月份平均收益率为2.20%，月盈利百分比为 64.29%，月盈利概率为70.00%，历史持有1年盈利概率为100.00%。截至2025年6月3日，30年国债ETF博时近6个月超越基准年化收益为0.29%。 回撤方面，截至2025年6月3日，30年国债ETF博时成立以来最大回撤6.89%， ...

黄金行情爆发中，一键布局买入黄金等避险资产>>> 饰品板块直线拉升，曼卡龙（300945）涨超10%，菜百股份（605599）、明牌珠宝（002574）、莱绅通 灵（603900）、新华锦（600735）、潮宏基（002345）等跟涨。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in international gold prices due to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating tariff policies, with gold reaching a near 20-day high of $3417.8 per ounce [2] - The increase in gold prices has also led to a rise in jewelry gold prices, with Chow Tai Fook adjusting its gold jewelry price to 1020 yuan per gram, up by 22 yuan from the previous day [2] - The gold-silver ratio has experienced substantial fluctuations, reaching a five-year high, indicating potential market corrections in the future [2][4] Group 2 - The rise in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including the increase in U.S. import tariffs on steel and aluminum, which has heightened global economic uncertainty [3] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for May showed a decline in new import orders, reflecting concerns over supply chain stability, further driving investors towards gold as a safe haven [3][7] - Silver prices have outperformed gold, with a 5.31% increase compared to gold's 2.8%, driven by the extreme gold-silver ratio and market sentiment [3][4] Group 3 - As of June 3, the gold-silver ratio reached 1:100, indicating that one ounce of gold can be exchanged for 100 ounces of silver, significantly higher than the historical average of 53-66 ounces [4] - This extreme ratio suggests that either silver is severely undervalued or gold is overvalued, with a high probability of mean reversion in the medium to long term [4] - Historical data indicates that when the gold-silver ratio exceeds 80, there is a 70% chance of silver prices rising, targeting a ratio range of 60-70 ounces [4] Group 4 - The volatility of silver is greater due to its smaller market size compared to gold, meaning that equal capital inflows can lead to larger price movements in silver [5] - The improvement in China's manufacturing PMI indicates a gradual economic recovery, which is expected to boost industrial demand for silver, as it is widely used in various sectors [5] - The anticipated economic recovery is likely to increase silver demand, further supporting its price [5] Group 5 - The U.S. dollar index fell to 98.86 on June 3, which reduced the holding cost of gold and contributed to its price increase [6] - The ongoing uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies and high fiscal deficits has shaken investor confidence in dollar assets, leading to a potential decline in the dollar's value [6] - The downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's has heightened concerns over the sustainability of the fiscal deficit, prompting capital outflows from dollar assets [6] Group 6 - The ISM manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 48.5, indicating a contraction in U.S. manufacturing activity for three consecutive months, which adds pressure to the dollar index [7] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates, with a 99.1% probability of no rate change in June, reflecting cautious monetary policy amid economic weakness [7] - The combination of weak manufacturing data and inflation expectations suggests limited potential for rate cuts in the near term, impacting gold prices [7] Group 7 - The future trajectory of gold prices will be influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly if rate cuts are implemented, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [8] - Geopolitical tensions and trade disputes are expected to further elevate gold's appeal as a safe haven asset, potentially driving prices higher [8] - However, gold prices may face resistance at previous highs around $3400-$3450 per ounce, and any easing of trade tensions could lead to price corrections [9]

Core Viewpoint - The World Gold Council (WGC) is advocating for the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) to reconsider the classification of gold as a High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) due to significant market volatility observed this year [2][3] Group 1: Gold's Market Performance - Gold has demonstrated key characteristics necessary for HQLA qualification, maintaining a daily volatility of 0.027%, which is comparable to 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds [3] - The average bid-ask spread for gold is approximately 2.2 basis points, which is slightly wider than the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds at 1.8 basis points but narrower than the 30-year bonds at 3.3 basis points [3] - The average daily trading volume of gold in the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) from November 2024 to April 2025 was $145 billion, surpassing the $143 billion for 7-10 year U.S. Treasuries [3] Group 2: Regulatory Context - Currently, physical gold held in bank vaults is classified as a Level 1 asset, while gold held as collateral in clearing institutions is subject to a 20% haircut [2] - Non-physical gold, such as paper gold, is treated as a regular commodity and incurs an 85% stable funding requirement under the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) rules, with a zero available stable funding (ASF) ratio [2] Group 3: Investment Demand and Perception - Analysts believe that gold is experiencing renewed investor demand as a safe-haven asset amid rising global debt levels and inflation, which diminishes the attractiveness of bonds [3] - The European Central Bank (ECB) recently questioned gold's role as a safe-haven asset, suggesting that a resurgence in gold investment demand could destabilize markets [4] - Despite the ECB's concerns, many analysts argue that gold markets remain liquid and relatively stable compared to other asset classes [5]

6月3日，黄金飙涨，华安黄金ETF（518880）放量上涨，截至收盘涨幅1.48%，成交额45.45亿元。资金 流向方面，近60日获得净申购199.4亿元，最新份额80.45亿份，规模593.19亿元。 消息面，COMEX黄金期货价格再度站上3400美元/盎司。业内人士指出，在全球地缘政治紧张局势加 剧、贸易战风险重燃、美元走弱等多重因素共同作用下，黄金再次展现出其作为终极避险资产的独特魅 力。随着市场不确定性持续发酵，黄金或将继续成为投资者资产配置中的重要选择。 机构认为，美国关税政策不确定性仍存，继续看好贵金属表现。美国近期重提对欧盟征收50%关税的可 能性加剧对贸易不确定性的担忧，对黄金走势形成支撑。中长期看，央行购买黄金+美元信用弱化为主 线，全球贸易担忧情绪仍存，叠加地缘冲突升级，看好金价中枢上移。 投资者可借道华安黄金ETF（518880）及其联接基金（A类000216，C类000217）布局。 华泰证券：短期金价或偏强震荡 华泰证券指出，消息方面，上周美国国际贸易法庭驳回特朗普依据IEEPA进行单方面加关税的行政命 令，市场对关税扰动预期明显下降，随后美国联邦上诉法院暂缓该决议，使得当前关税政策 ...

"过去，铂金是一个很火的贵金属，价格比黄金还贵，但自从黄金饰品爆火后，铂金饰品的需求相对较少，加之消费者现在都追求保值和投资需求，铂金 就没那么火了。"水贝金展广场一家铂金饰品店的工作人员表示，"水贝商家的嗅觉很灵敏，就像之前金包银饰品店越开越多，最近铂金价格开始变动后有 一些店开始囤货，后续要看价格的变化。" 记者也对现场几位消费者进行了采访，对方表示铂金回收的折价确实比黄金更大一些，但自己喜欢铂金的色泽，所以自用的需求高于投资。 而在一些社交平台上，铂金的讨论度明显升温，甚至有从黄金"转战"铂金的说法，不少铂金饰品的直播销售也吸引了不少关注。记者梳理发现，多数消费 者认为铂金价格已经"躺"了很多年，加之金价处于历史高位，所以将目光转向铂金。 世界铂金投资协会的数据显示，今年第一季度全球铂金总供应量同比下降10%，为45.3吨；需求端同比增长10%，达70.7吨；今年或连续第三年出现铂金 短缺，缺口达30吨。而在需求方面，全球铂金首饰和投资需求显著增长，首饰需求同比增长9%，投资需求则增至14.3吨。 铂金市场仍是"线下冷线上热"。 近段时间以来，黄金价格开启高位震荡行情。6月2日，国际金价创近三周以来新高 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold and platinum prices have been driven by factors such as a weakening dollar, geopolitical risks, and economic uncertainty, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][4]. Gold Market - On June 2, international gold prices reached a three-week high, with COMEX gold futures for August delivery rising by 2.7% to $3404.70 per ounce [1]. - The gold jewelry sector in both A-shares and H-shares has shown active performance recently [1]. - Year-to-date, international gold prices have increased by approximately 25% [6]. Platinum Market - Platinum prices have seen a significant rise since late May, with futures surpassing $1100 per ounce, marking a nearly one-year high [1]. - Despite recent price increases, retail demand for platinum remains low, with fewer customers in platinum jewelry stores compared to gold [3][4]. - The World Platinum Investment Council reported a 10% year-on-year decline in global platinum supply in Q1, totaling 45.3 tons, while demand increased by 10% to 70.7 tons, indicating a potential shortfall of 30 tons for the third consecutive year [4][5]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers show a preference for gold due to its investment value, while some still appreciate platinum for its aesthetic qualities [4][5]. - Discussions around platinum have increased on social media, with some consumers considering switching from gold to platinum as gold prices reach historical highs [4]. - Retailers are beginning to stockpile platinum in anticipation of price changes, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [4]. Future Projections - JPMorgan forecasts that the average price of platinum will rise to $1200 per ounce by Q4 2025 and $1300 per ounce by Q2 2026 [6]. - Citibank predicts that gold prices could reach a target of $3500 per ounce within the next three months, up from a previous target of $3300 [6].

③关税政策加剧市场波动 美国联邦上诉法院恢复特朗普关税政策，关税政策的不确定性影响美与他国贸易关系，左右全球经济前景与市场避险情绪，导致黄金价格震荡。政策收紧或 刺激金价，缓和则可能抑制金价。 综上，地缘冲突、美国经济数据与关税政策共同作用于现货黄金市场。投资者需紧盯俄乌局势、美国经济数据及关税政策变化，把握投资机会。 二、现货黄金技术面： 一、现货黄金基本面： ①地缘政治推升避险需求 6月1日，乌克兰无人机袭击多个俄罗斯军用机场，远至西伯利亚的贝拉亚基地亦受损，俄罗斯多地防空系统启动。地缘冲突加剧，作为避险资产的黄金，其 需求显著提升，只要局势未缓解，黄金将持续获避险买盘支撑。 ②美国经济数据影响市场预期 美国4月PCE物价指数同比涨2.1%，低于预期的2.2%，市场押注美联储9月降息概率升至87%。同时，二手房成交量、领先经济指数等数据疲软，显示美国经 济增长承压，进一步增加黄金避险需求。美联储若进入降息周期，黄金还将因持有成本下降、货币供应量增加而获上涨动力。 三、现货白银技术面： 复盘昨日现货白银市场表现，价格走出了单边上涨走势，最终突破震荡区间上边界33.710，顺利抵达目标位34.110，成功斩获 ...