分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：黄冬祎 超配（维持） 食品饮料行业双周报（2025/04/25-2025/05/08） 业绩表现分化，关注景气细分 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 研 究 2025 年 5 月 9 日 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 证 券 研 究 报 告 食品饮料行业 行 业 周 报 食品饮料（申万）指数走势 资料来源：同花顺,东莞证券研究所 相关报告 ◼ 行情回顾：2025年4月25日-2025年5月8日，SW食品饮料行业指数整体上 涨0.64%，板块涨幅位居申万一级行业第二十六位，跑输同期沪深300指 数约1.17个百分点。 ◼ 行业周观点：业绩表现分化，关注景气细分。受外围市场扰动，提振内 需将成为推动国内经济增长的重要一 ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《五一假期消费强劲，汇率升值提升 宽松货币政策预期》 - 2025.05.06 全球贸易摩擦超预期发展；政策效果不及预期；地缘政治风险。 宏观研究 汇率压力降低放行货币政策，结构性投资机会将再 次展开 投资要点 国务院新闻办公室于 2025 年 5 月 7 日上午 9 时举行新闻发布会， 中国人民银行行长潘功胜、金融监管总局局长李云泽、中国证监会主 席吴清介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，并答记 者问。 第一，以制度韧性应对外部不确定性，提振市场信心。我们理解， 在外部环境不确定性急剧上升，国内经济景气度有所放缓背景下，5 月 17 日，央行、金融监管总局和证监会举行新闻发布会，不仅是对 "425"中共中央政治局会议精神的贯彻落实，亦是向市场传递更为 明确的一揽子稳市场稳预期的金融政策，再次向市场传递政策将根据 外部环境变 ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《五一假期消费强劲，汇率升值提升 宽松货币政策预期》 - 2025.05.06 第四，坚定资本市场稳中向好信心，结构性慢牛行情可期。我们 理解，党中央对于稳市场、稳预期高度重视，A 股市场亦展现了较为 强劲的韧性，当前上证指数已完成了对前期意外冲击的回补，接下来 指数有望继续"慢牛"，结构性投资机会将再次展开，建议关注低空经 济、人工智能、房地产等领域投资机会。 风险提示： 全球贸易摩擦超预期发展；政策效果不及预期；地缘政治风险。 宏观研究 汇率压力降低放行货币政策，结构性投资机会将再 次展开 投资要点 国务院新闻办公室于 2025 年 5 月 7 日上午 9 时举行新闻发布会， 中国人民银行行长潘功胜、金融监管总局局长李云泽、中国证监会主 席吴清介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，并答记 者问。 第一，以制度韧性应对外部不 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to optimize consumer supply and fully unleash domestic demand potential to enhance consumption's role in economic growth [2][3] - The government is implementing special actions to boost consumption, focusing on demand-driven and market-oriented strategies, particularly in the ready-to-drink beverage sector [2] - The government encourages companies like Mixue Ice City to improve R&D capabilities, introduce new popular products, and enhance digital oversight across the supply chain to ensure food safety [2] Group 2 - Urban commercial circles are identified as crucial platforms for consumer activity and city vitality, necessitating high-standard planning and development to attract flagship stores and cultivate new consumption scenarios [3] - The government aims to elevate consumption as a fundamental driver of economic growth, promoting policies that enhance consumer spending in major goods and services [3] - There is a focus on improving consumer capacity and conditions, protecting consumer rights, and creating an optimized consumption environment to stimulate demand and support sustained economic momentum [3]

政策红利持续释放，绿色消费成新增长极，"以旧换新"政策撬动家电消费升级，该市五星电器门店黄金 周销售额达693万元，同比增长11.8%。"国补政策叠加企业让利，空调、冰箱等大家电平均折扣力度非 常大。"据门店负责人介绍，节能产品占比提升至78%，其中一级能效空调销售同比有较大提升。 "五一消费市场的亮眼表现，印证了促消费政策与市场主体创新的协同效应。"溧阳市商务局相关负责人 说。下阶段，该局将持续推进各种促进消费的活动，深化商旅文体融合，通过培育智慧商圈、拓展消费 场景，进一步释放内需潜力，为溧阳经济高质量发展注入新动能。通讯员 管倩 扬子晚报/紫牛新闻记者 毕俊星 刚刚过去的"五一"假期，溧阳消费市场呈现供需两旺态势：5月1日至5日，该市8家重点商贸企业实现销 售额5204.32万元，较2024年同期增长6.7%，在消费促进政策与特色活动双轮驱动下，交出了一份亮眼 的假日经济答卷。 商圈经济领跑增长，核心商圈通过场景创新释放强劲消费动能。上河城购物中心将营业时间调整为9时 30分到22时，打造"不劳动菜市场"活动，配合动漫音乐会、手作工坊等体验活动，带动销售额达1405万 元，同比增长4.9%；吾悦广场则聚 ...

相关产品：港股消费ETF(159735) 5月8日，中证港股通消费主题指数（csi931454）盘中表现活跃，港股消费ETF（159735）表现不俗，其 盘中涨幅一度达到了1.48%，显示出市场对港股消费板块的乐观预期。 消息面上，国家金融监督管理总局发布通知，要求各级机构加大对重点领域小微企业的金融支持，推动 资源向外贸、民营、科技和消费等领域倾斜。银行业金融机构需公平精准授信，支持民营和小微企业发 展，并提升对小微外贸企业的服务水平。此外，金融机构还需培育新生产力，提供多元化服务，特别支 持住宿、餐饮、文旅及新兴消费领域的小微企业和个体工商户，助力扩大内需、促进消费。这一系列政 策举措有望进一步提升市场对港股消费板块的信心，为相关ETF的后续走势提供积极支撑。 中国银河表示，商务部等9部门联合发布《服务消费提质惠民行动2025工作方案》，强调释放服务消费 潜力，涵盖旅游休闲等行业。政策刺激将向服务消费扩散，地方财政支出为主，支持力度有提升空间。 政策节奏与投资时点依赖政府相机抉择，旺季前夕出台可能性大。餐饮业作为社零权重项，政策支持明 确，行业内部现积极信号，龙头品牌调整策略，提价趋势明显。受益方向包括O ...

Core Viewpoint - The emphasis is on promoting consumption as a vital driver for economic development and improving people's livelihoods, aligning with national policies and local initiatives to stimulate consumer confidence and innovation [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The government is implementing a series of consumption promotion policies, including "trade-in" programs, to encourage market innovation and enhance consumer experiences [1]. - There is a focus on improving service mechanisms to ensure effective policy implementation and to stimulate consumer enthusiasm [1]. Group 2: Economic Significance - Consumption is identified as an internal driving force for economic growth, a reflection of improved living standards, and a key indicator of urban development [2]. - Boosting consumption is crucial for building confidence in development, fostering innovation, and promoting industrial upgrades, which are strategic measures for high-quality growth [2]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The government aims to leverage opportunities to enhance consumption, particularly during key periods like the "May Day Golden Week" and the second quarter [2]. - There is a call to focus on the advantages of Zhengzhou, such as its transportation, industrial base, and market potential, to accelerate the development of an international consumption center [2]. - New growth points in consumption are to be cultivated by tapping into trends like live commerce and cross-border e-commerce, creating a better consumption environment [2]. Group 4: Mechanism Innovation - The government plans to innovate mechanisms to support consumption, tailoring policies to different market entities to enhance their growth and effectiveness [2].

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 5 月 7 日 稳市场稳预期发布会点评 金融助力稳经济 5 月 7 日，国务院新闻办公室上午 9 时举行新闻发布会。除了落地降准降息 之外，我们认为货币政策宽松主要目标是稳定我国二季度经济向好的趋势， 政策的主要发力方向是促消费、助力科创企业发展和稳定资本市场。 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 本次金融政策调整力度大、范围广。我们认为金融政策调整可以从三个 层面理解：一是适度宽松的货币政策如期落地，包括降准 0.5 个百分点、 下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点，以及下调结构型货币政策工具利率 0.25 个 百分点，预计本次宽松将向市场提供长期流动性 1 万亿元，同时带动 LPR 同步下行约 0.1 个百分点，有助于改善金融机构和资本市场流动性；二是 稳定金融市场，包括加大长期资金流入和优化资本 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market, and a 0.1 percentage point decrease in policy interest rates, expected to lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by the same margin [3][4] - The central bank's actions are seen as a clear signal of "appropriate easing" aimed at stabilizing growth and the market, especially in light of ongoing external tariff disputes affecting exports and the economy [3][4] - The current economic growth rate is reported at 5.4% year-on-year, indicating a recovery trend following policy interventions in the previous year [3] Group 2: Stock Market Support - The central bank and the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. are set to support the stock market by enhancing liquidity and providing backing for index fund purchases [5][6] - A total of 800 billion yuan has been allocated for two financial tools aimed at stabilizing the capital market, which will be utilized when the market is significantly undervalued [5][6] - The A-share market showed stability with the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index rising by 0.8% and 0.51%, respectively, reflecting positive market sentiment following the announcement [6] Group 3: Real Estate Market Policies - The interest rate for personal housing provident fund loans has been reduced by 0.25 percentage points, with the new rate for first-time homebuyers set at 2.6% for loans over five years [8][9] - The new policies are expected to alleviate repayment pressures for homebuyers and stimulate housing consumption, contributing positively to market confidence [8][9] - The government is also working on optimizing financing systems related to real estate development, which is anticipated to improve funding conditions for enterprises [9][10] Group 4: Consumer Spending Initiatives - A new 500 billion yuan service consumption and pension re-loan program has been established to stimulate domestic demand, particularly in durable goods and service consumption [11] - The policy aims to create a positive cycle of stabilizing the real estate market, boosting consumption, and enhancing investment [11] - The central bank has also reduced reserve requirements for auto finance and leasing companies by 5 percentage points to further support consumer spending [11] Group 5: Support for Technological Innovation - An additional 300 billion yuan has been allocated for loans aimed at technological innovation and upgrades, bringing the total to 800 billion yuan [12][13] - The issuance of technology innovation bonds is being supported through various measures to enhance funding for innovative enterprises [13][14] - Multiple securities firms and tech companies are preparing to issue innovation bonds, indicating a proactive approach to funding in the sector [14]

今年以来，国内一系列扩内需促消费政策发力显效，多地也酝酿出台新一轮提振消费专项行动。 5月7日，广东省人民政府办公厅发布关于印发《广东省提振消费专项行动实施方案》(简称《实施方案》)的通知，《实施方案》从8大方面提出31项政 策，全面提振消费。 《实施方案》提出，实施居民就业增收促进行动，其中包括推动工资性收入合理平稳增长，拓展财产性收入渠道等。在拓展财产性收入渠道方面，鼓励上 市公司推进员工持股计划。强化国企控股上市公司市值管理，稳定投资者回报预期。维护良好市场生态，严厉打击资本市场财务造假和上市公司股东违规 减持等行为。支持个人投资者投资交易所市场政府债券。推动柜台债券业务稳步扩容增量，拓宽居民债券投资渠道。丰富个人养老金理财产品。研究推动 通过出租、入股、合作等方式盘活利用农户合法拥有的住房。 此外，深化内外贸一体化改革试点，培育一批内外贸一体化试点企业、"领跑者"企业和特色产业集群，支持外贸企业打造内销品牌。大力实施"粤贸全 国"品牌工程，开展外贸优品中华行，促进外贸企业出口转内销等。 《实施方案》还提出实施消费环境改善提升行动，实施限制措施清理优化行动，其中提出有序减少消费限制。用好房地产调控自主权 ...