Market Overview - Global risk assets are showing significant differentiation under the dual narrative of "tariffs + interest rate cuts" [1] - Emerging markets are outperforming developed markets, with the South Korean Composite Index leading with a 33.28% increase [1] - The Hang Seng Index and Germany's DAX follow with increases of 24.14% and 19.77%, respectively [1] - The US stock market, represented by the Nasdaq and S&P 500, has seen increases of 8.32% and 7.10% [1] - A-shares in China have also performed well, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rising by 7.93% and 6.65% [1] Bond Market - Chinese government bond yields have shown a stable trend, with the 10-year yield fluctuating between approximately 1.66% and 1.75% [1] - In contrast, the US 10-year Treasury yield has decreased from 4.37% in early April to 4.22% by August 5, indicating rising expectations for interest rate cuts [1] Currency Market - The US dollar has begun to decline, with the dollar index dropping from 103.46 in March to 98.76 by August 5, a significant decrease [1] - The USD/CNY exchange rate is stable around 7.18, while the USD/JPY has depreciated to 147.18 [1] - The USD has appreciated against the Euro, with the exchange rate at 0.86 [1] Alternative Assets - Gold has performed exceptionally well, with the London spot gold price rising from approximately $3000/oz at the beginning of the year to $3375.30/oz by August 5, a 25.49% increase [2] - The oil market is under pressure, with ICE Brent crude oil down by 9.32% year-to-date [2] Family Office Trends - Global family offices are adjusting their risk tolerance and return expectations due to increasing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [2][3] - Domestic family offices prioritize "preservation of value," shifting from "outpacing inflation" to "not losing is gaining" [3] - Overseas family offices are more open to single-digit returns in the current market environment [3] Asset Allocation - According to UBS's latest report, family offices plan to reduce cash holdings to only 6% by 2025, while increasing investments in alternative assets, particularly private debt [4] - There is a notable increase in the allocation to fixed income and cash-like assets, as well as a rise in consultations regarding family trusts and insurance products [4] - Family offices are extending their due diligence periods for private equity investments, focusing more on cash flow and dividend terms [4] Regional Asset Distribution - Family office wealth is primarily concentrated in North America and Western Europe, with 80% allocated to developed market stocks and bonds [6] - The allocation to North America is projected to be 53% in 2025, a slight increase from the previous year [6] - There is a gradual shift in investment focus, with some family offices reallocating from the US to European markets [6] Investment Opportunities - There is a growing interest in the Greater China region, with 19% of global family offices planning to increase investments there, up 3 percentage points from 2024 [7] - Future investment directions are expected to focus on emerging technologies, including pharmaceuticals, healthcare, electrification, and artificial intelligence [7] - Domestic family offices are increasingly looking overseas for high returns, with a notable rise in interest towards regions like Singapore, Hong Kong, and emerging markets [8]

Market Performance - Global risk assets are showing significant differentiation under the dual narrative of "tariffs + interest rate cuts" [1] - Emerging markets are outperforming developed markets, with the South Korean Composite Index leading with a 33.28% increase [1] - The Hang Seng Index and Germany's DAX have increased by 24.14% and 19.77% respectively, while US indices like Nasdaq and S&P 500 have risen by 8.32% and 7.10% [1] - A-shares have also performed well, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rising by 7.93% and 6.65% respectively [1] - The healthcare sector in Hong Kong has seen a remarkable increase of 83.25% [1] Bond Market - Chinese government bond yields have shown a stable trend, with the 10-year yield fluctuating between approximately 1.66% and 1.75% [1] - In contrast, US 10-year Treasury yields have decreased from 4.37% in early April to 4.22% by August 5, indicating rising expectations for interest rate cuts [1] Currency Market - The US dollar has been on a downward trend, with the dollar index falling from 103.46 on March 19 to 98.76 on August 5 [1] - The USD/CNY exchange rate is stable around 7.18, while the USD/JPY has depreciated to 147.18 and the USD/EUR has appreciated to 0.86 [1] Alternative Assets - Gold has performed exceptionally well, with the London spot gold price rising from approximately $3000/oz at the beginning of the year to $3375.30/oz by August 5, marking a 25.49% increase [2] - Conversely, the oil market is under pressure, with ICE Brent crude oil down by 9.32% year-to-date [2] Family Office Trends - Family offices are becoming more conservative in their investment strategies due to increasing geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties [3] - Domestic family offices prioritize "preservation of value," shifting their focus from "beating inflation" to "not losing is gaining" [3] - Overseas family offices are still seeking higher returns, with single-digit growth now being acceptable in the current market environment [3] Asset Allocation - According to UBS's latest report, family offices are reducing cash holdings, with only 6% planned for cash by 2025, while increasing investments in private debt to enhance portfolio returns [4] - There is a notable increase in fixed income and cash-like assets, as well as a rise in consultations for "safety net" tools like family trusts and large deposits [4] - The due diligence period for private equity has lengthened, with stricter requirements for cash flow and dividend terms [4] Global Asset Allocation Shifts - Family offices' wealth is primarily concentrated in North America and Western Europe, with 80% allocated to developed market stocks and bonds [6] - The allocation to North America is projected to be 53% in 2025, a slight increase from the previous year, while the Asia-Pacific region's allocation has decreased to 7% [6] - Some family offices are beginning to adjust their risk exposure to the US market, with a shift of stock allocations from the US to Europe [6] Investment Focus in Asia-Pacific - There is a growing interest in the Greater China region, with 19% of global family offices planning to increase investments there, up 3 percentage points from 2024 [7] - Future investment directions are expected to focus on emerging technologies, including pharmaceuticals, healthcare, electrification, and artificial intelligence [7] Overseas Investment Trends - Domestic family offices are increasingly seeking high returns overseas, with a consensus on diversifying market risks [8] - There is a noticeable increase in asset allocation demand towards Hong Kong and emerging regions [8] - Clients are also paying attention to cross-border tax implications related to overseas investments [8]

Core Viewpoint - The global asset performance in July shows that the US dollar leads with a return of 3.19%, followed by commodities at 2.00%, global stocks at 1.30%, and the Chinese yuan at -0.50%, with global bonds declining by 1.49% [2] Group 1: Global Asset Trends - The liquidity of Japanese government bonds has deteriorated beyond the levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis, with the Bloomberg Japan Government Bond Liquidity Index surpassing the post-Lehman Brothers bankruptcy levels [4][10] - There is a divergence in the performance of cyclical stocks versus defensive stocks in the US market, closely linked to forward swap rates tied to interest rates, indicating optimism among investors regarding sustained high interest rates [12] - The relative performance of MSCI Japan bank stocks is highly correlated with the 10-year Japanese government bond yield, benefiting from rising inflation expectations [5][15] Group 2: Fund Manager Allocations - Global fund managers have increased their allocation to technology to the highest level since March 2009, while reducing positions in cash, consumer staples, banks, emerging markets, and commodities [18] - Emerging market sovereign debt has seen its yield spread over US Treasuries narrow to a 15-year low, reducing the attractiveness of this strategy despite strong performance earlier in the year [24][21] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The relative performance of European consumer staples has diverged from the gold-to-copper ratio since 2024, indicating a weakening relationship between macroeconomic conditions and defensive sectors [28] - The relative price-to-earnings ratio of European and US stock indices is closely related to the uncertainty of economic policies in both regions, with European valuations rising as US policy uncertainty increases [31] Group 4: Interest Rate Dynamics - The interest rate swap spread between China's 5-year and 1-year rates has turned positive for the first time in seven months, reflecting confidence in long-term inflation due to domestic policies and infrastructure projects [35] - The South African stock index has closely followed gold prices, with a cumulative increase of approximately 19% since 2025, outperforming other emerging market indices [38] Group 5: Market Sentiment - The volume of bullish options on the SPDR US Dollar ETF has been declining, suggesting a potential softening of the dollar, as indicated by the falling risk reversal options [41]

Group 1: Global Economic Impact of Tariffs - The average import tariff level in the U.S. has reached 15.6% in 2023, significantly higher than the 2.4% in 2024, which may increase inflation and weaken corporate profitability [3] - The impact of U.S. tariff policies includes a slowdown in global trade flows, reduced investment and consumption growth, and potential restructuring of global supply chains [3] - The legal standing of Trump's tariff policies remains uncertain, pending a final ruling from the Supreme Court [4] Group 2: U.S. Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates in July, with expectations of potential rate cuts in September or October, and a total of four cuts by June 2024, amounting to 100 basis points [6][7] - High tariffs may hinder the Fed's ability to cut rates due to rising inflation and weakening corporate earnings [6] Group 3: Precious Metals and Investment Strategies - Gold prices are expected to rise, with a forecast of $3,700 per ounce by June 2026, driven by geopolitical risks and increased central bank gold reserves [8] - The market may see a correction in gold prices due to reduced uncertainty from tariff policies and a historical high price level [8] Group 4: Global Asset Allocation - U.S. economic and stock market pressures may lead to a decline in trust in dollar assets, while European stocks may attract investment due to lower valuations [10] - A-shares and H-shares are expected to benefit from policy support and improved fundamentals, with a focus on cyclical stocks and technology growth sectors [10] Group 5: Sector Focus in Chinese Market - The market is showing a "high-low" switching characteristic influenced by infrastructure policies and trade risks, with a focus on cyclical stocks and technology sectors [13] - The AI sector is anticipated to remain a core focus, with recommendations to monitor semiconductor and technology index stocks [13][14]

Group 1 - The adjustment of the U.S. non-farm payroll data has significantly impacted market expectations, indicating a shift in economic outlook [10] - Understanding the future trajectory of the U.S. economy is crucial, with discussions on whether a recession can be avoided [10] - Following a substantial correction in the U.S. stock market, there are considerations on whether this presents a good buying opportunity [10] Group 2 - Future trends in the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and gold prices are essential for investment strategies [10]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for diversified asset allocation is increasing among investors in the current volatile A-share market and declining interest rate environment, with QDII funds emerging as important tools for risk diversification and capturing overseas market opportunities [1] Group 1: Fund Performance - Penghua Global Short-Medium Bond RMB A and Penghua Global High Yield Bond (QDII) have shown strong performance, with net value growth rates of 6.61% and 17.18% over the past year and three years respectively for the former, ranking 3rd out of 55 and 9th out of 51 in their categories [1] - The Penghua Global High Yield Bond achieved a net value growth rate of 6.79% over the past year, ranking 1st out of 55 in its category [1] - The Penghua Global Short-Medium Bond has seen significant growth in scale, reaching 2.641 billion RMB as of June 30, 2025, an increase of 408 million RMB from the end of 2024 [1] Group 2: Fund Management - Both QDII bond funds are managed by Hao Lili, who has 15 years of experience in the securities industry and 8 years in U.S. dollar bond investment research, known for a prudent and stable investment style [2] - The Penghua Global Short-Medium Bond primarily invests in overseas investment-grade short to medium-term bonds, focusing on credit risk stability and diversification across industries and regions [2] - The fund employs foreign exchange derivatives to hedge against currency risks and adjusts duration to mitigate risks associated with rising interest rates [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - In the second quarter, adjustments were made to the portfolio of the Penghua Global High Yield Bond to enhance overall credit quality, with positive returns from trading certain industry bonds affected by fluctuating tariffs [3] - Future risks are anticipated from potential policy changes following tariff exemptions, with ongoing negotiations between Trump and various governments [3] - The outlook for U.S. Treasury bonds includes concerns over interest rate cuts and supply-demand dynamics, while the static yield of dollar bonds remains attractive, with a focus on timing and sector allocation strategies for enhanced returns [3]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese equity assets are expected to outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year due to strong policy expectations and favorable liquidity conditions in the Asia-Pacific emerging markets [22]. Group 1: Global Economic Impact - The average import tariff level in the U.S. has reached 15.6% this year, significantly higher than the 2.4% expected in 2024, which may elevate U.S. inflation and weaken corporate profitability [11]. - The U.S. tariff policy is likely to slow global trade flows, reduce investment and consumption growth, and reshape global supply chains, potentially leading to a "de-Americanization" and "multilateralization" of trade among non-U.S. economies [11]. Group 2: U.S. Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged as long as the U.S. economy and labor market remain robust, with market expectations for rate cuts cooling down [14]. - It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will cut rates four times by June next year, totaling 100 basis points [16]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to increase their allocation to non-U.S. assets, particularly European investment-grade bonds and stocks, which are expected to benefit from Germany's fiscal stimulus plan [20]. - A focus on Chinese A-shares and H-shares is recommended, as they are likely to attract international capital inflows due to policy support and improving fundamentals [20]. Group 4: Sector Focus in China - The market is expected to show a "high-low cut" characteristic, with significant interest in cyclical stocks driven by infrastructure policies and technology events [23]. - The technology sector, particularly AI-related stocks, is projected to remain a core focus, with recommendations to monitor semiconductor, optical module, and high-end PCB stocks [23].

Group 1: Market Overview - The global capital market continues to exhibit a complex and volatile trend as of July, with macroeconomic data, geopolitical situations, and monetary policies influencing the market outlook for August [1] - The average import tariff level in the U.S. has reached 15.6% this year, significantly higher than the 2.4% expected in 2024, which may elevate U.S. inflation and weaken corporate profitability [8][12] - The impact of U.S. tariff policies includes potential slowdowns in global trade flows, reduced investment and consumption growth, and a reshaping of global supply chains [8] Group 2: Trade Policies and Economic Impact - The trade agreements reached have prevented the implementation of higher tariffs, which is generally favorable for the market; however, the tariffs already in effect since April have led to a notable decline in U.S. imports and affected consumer confidence [8][11] - The tariffs have a more pronounced effect on industries such as automotive, steel, and aluminum, with significant declines in revenue and profitability for companies heavily exposed to the U.S. market [8][11] - The legal standing of Trump's tariff policies remains uncertain, pending a final ruling from the Supreme Court [9] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates in July, with expectations of potential rate cuts in September or October, and a total of four cuts anticipated by June next year, amounting to 100 basis points [11][13] - High tariffs may constrain the Fed's ability to lower rates, as they could lead to increased inflation and weakened consumer and investment activity in the U.S. [12] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The outlook for gold prices is positive, with a forecast of $3,700 per ounce by June 2026, driven by ongoing geopolitical risks and central banks increasing gold reserves [14] - Investors are advised to increase allocations to non-U.S. assets, particularly European investment-grade bonds and stocks, which are expected to benefit from Germany's fiscal stimulus [18] - Chinese equity assets are projected to outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year due to strong policy expectations and improved fundamentals [20] Group 5: Sector Focus - The market is expected to show a "high-low cut" characteristic, with significant interest in cyclical stocks driven by infrastructure policies and technological advancements [21] - The AI sector is anticipated to remain a core focus, with recommendations to pay attention to semiconductor, optical module, and high-end PCB stocks [21] - For low-risk investors, there are opportunities in undervalued stocks with cash value and liquidation reassessment potential, particularly in sectors that have lagged since last year [22]

私募出海渐成趋势。私募排排网数据显示，截至8月1日，已获得香港证监会发放的9号牌照且牌照为存 续状态的内地私募共有87家，其中管理规模超50亿元的私募占比超四成。据悉，获取香港9号牌的私 募，可成立香港资管子公司或关联公司，直接管理美元基金，实现投资端和募资端的全面出海。 业内人士称，随着全球增配中国资产的需求升温，私募业走上规范发展之路，管理人出海将成为中长期 趋势。在此过程中，具备长期业绩积累，合规风控体系健全的头部私募，更显出海优势，中小私募则须 进一步提升机构化、专业化水平。 私募"组团"拿9号牌 私募排排网数据显示，今年以来，黑翼资产和前海博普资产获得了香港9号牌照，至此，获香港9号牌照 且牌照为存续状态的私募达87家。其中，持牌的主观私募、量化私募和混合型（"主观+量化"）私募分 别有58家、20家和9家。 ■私募新观察 积极参与全球配置 87家内地私募获香港9号牌照 ◎记者 马嘉悦 在业内人士看来，出海是海外投资者与境内资管机构的一场"双向奔赴"。 王丽称，近年来，随着居民财富管理需求增长，私募业发展走上快车道，百亿级私募持续扩容。在此背 景下，越来越多私募意识到资金结构多元化对公司长期稳健发展 ...

Core Insights - The recent decline in the US dollar index and rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have created new opportunities and volatility in global capital markets [1][3] - Alipay Index+ provides tools and data to help investors optimize asset allocation during the interest rate cut cycle, balancing risk and growth opportunities [1][4] Investment Logic Behind Dollar Weakness - A falling dollar index typically leads to appreciation of non-US currencies, recovery in commodities, and increased attractiveness of emerging market assets [3] - Historical data shows that during Federal Reserve rate cut cycles, core A-shares, gold, and high-growth Asian stocks tend to perform well [3] - Alipay Index+ employs a "global asset allocation + dynamic optimization" strategy to help investors respond flexibly to market changes [3] Global Asset Allocation and Risk Diversification - Alipay Index+ includes a variety of assets, such as broad-based A-share indices, allowing ordinary investors to conveniently allocate to index-enhanced funds with potential for sustained excess returns [4] - The platform aims to improve the stability and longevity of long-term investments through professional tools [4] Intelligent Portfolio Adjustment - Index-enhanced funds are not passively managed but dynamically optimized based on quantitative models [6] - The system may automatically adjust allocations to growth stocks sensitive to interest rates or increase defensive asset proportions based on market conditions [6] - As of the end of 2024, over 11 million investors have initiated index fund regular investments, with an average holding period of 1,239 days and an average return of 4.14% [6] - The passive index fund market in China reached a scale of 3.96 trillion yuan in 2024 [6] - Ant Group's wealth management division aims to enhance investor experience through a comprehensive index investment service platform, "Index+", which collaborates with multiple institutions to provide stable index-enhanced products [6] Strategic Focus During Rate Cut Cycles - The combination of intelligent portfolio adjustment strategies and market volatility presents both opportunities and risks [8] - Alipay Index+ utilizes fundamental indicators to filter out short-term funds, employs quantitative models to assess tracking errors and information ratios, and conducts qualitative analysis by industry experts to ensure high investment value [8]