Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and the EU by President Trump has led to increased market pressure and heightened risk aversion, resulting in declines in U.S. stock futures and slight increases in gold, the dollar, and Bitcoin [1][11]. Market Reactions - U.S. stock futures opened lower, with the S&P 500 futures down by 0.4% [1]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 200.50 points, or 0.45%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures also experienced declines of 0.47% and 0.46%, respectively [2]. - Asian markets reacted with the Nikkei 225 index down 0.3% and the South Korean KOSPI remaining flat [3]. Commodity and Currency Movements - Gold prices increased by 0.5%, marking the fourth consecutive day of gains, although the increase has moderated [3]. - The U.S. dollar and Japanese yen saw slight increases against major currencies [6]. - Bitcoin experienced a temporary rise of about 1% before retreating from its recent highs [9]. Economic Context - Analysts warn that the 30% tariff is punitive and may have a more significant impact on the EU than on the U.S. itself [11]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including China's Q2 GDP and U.S. June CPI, are expected to be focal points for the market [12]. - The recent tariff announcement disrupts the previously optimistic sentiment surrounding trade negotiations [14]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market's resilience is being tested as Trump's trade threats complicate accurate pricing in financial markets [13]. - Some analysts believe that the market may overlook the trade conflict until tariffs are fully implemented, drawing lessons from past experiences [14]. - Discussions around potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership due to Trump's criticisms of Powell add further uncertainty to the market [15].

Core Insights - The latest retail sales report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) indicates a slowdown in retail sales growth in June due to consumer concerns, marking the first monthly decline since February [1] - The seasonally adjusted total retail sales excluding automobiles and gasoline decreased by 0.33% month-over-month in June, while year-over-year sales still grew by 3.19% [1] - Core retail sales (excluding auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants) also saw a month-over-month decline of 0.32% in June, with a year-over-year increase of 3.36% [1] Monthly Performance - The overall retail sales for the first half of the year increased by 4.66% year-over-year, while core retail sales rose by 4.93% [2] - The June decline is the first since February, when both total and core retail sales fell by 0.22% compared to January [2] Consumer Behavior - Matthew Shay, CEO of NRF, noted that long-term uncertainties surrounding the economy, tariffs, and trade policies are causing consumers to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach regarding household budgets [1] - Despite the economic slowdown, consumers still have the capacity to spend on necessities, but their psychological outlook is being affected [1] Category Performance - In June, seven categories experienced year-over-year growth, with digital products, sporting goods stores, and health and personal care stores leading the way [2] - Only one category showed month-over-month growth, while the rest declined [2] - Specific category performance includes: - Digital products: Seasonally adjusted month-over-month growth of 0.26% and a year-over-year surge of 24.11% [2] - Health and personal care stores: Seasonally adjusted month-over-month decline of 0.31% and year-over-year growth of 3.47% [3] - General merchandise stores: Seasonally adjusted month-over-month decline of 0.15% and year-over-year growth of 3.18% [4] - Food and beverage stores: Seasonally adjusted month-over-month decline of 0.13% and year-over-year growth of 2.59% [5] - Electronics and appliance stores: Seasonally adjusted month-over-month decline of 1.03% and year-over-year growth of 2.43% [6] - Furniture and home furnishings stores: Seasonally adjusted month-over-month decline of 1.04% and year-over-year decline of 1.14% [7] - Building materials and garden supplies stores: Seasonally adjusted month-over-month decline of 0.76% and year-over-year decline of 5.33% [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose with a weekly increase of about 0.76%, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. The international cotton market is affected by factors such as the US cotton export sales report and weather, while the domestic textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with weak demand and cautious raw material procurement by enterprises. Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and high - temperature weather in some areas of Xinjiang supports the price to fluctuate strongly. Overall, the market shows a slightly stronger oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [6][19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Points Summary - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose by about 0.76% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. In the international market, the US cotton export sales report was not as expected, and the favorable weather led to an increase in the excellent - good rate of US cotton, suppressing the price of US cotton. In the domestic market, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. Enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw materials. As of July 10, the operating load of spinning enterprises in mainstream areas was 70.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84% [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and there is a high risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton in some areas of Xinjiang, which supports the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the weak demand drags down the price rhythm, so the overall trend is slightly stronger oscillatory. Attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in the price of foreign cotton, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.04%. As of June 24, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 2 cotton increased by 5.61% month - on - month, the non - commercial short - position decreased by 1.86% month - on - month, and the net position increased by 14.91% month - on - month [9]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of July 3, 2025, the net increase in US cotton export sales in the current market year was 75,100 bales, a 217% increase compared to the previous four weeks and a 55% increase compared to the four - week average. The cotton export volume was 240,900 bales, a 6% decrease compared to the previous week and a 9% increase compared to the four - week average. As of July 8, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 78.75 cents per pound, a 0.51% month - on - month decrease [14]. - **Futures Market**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose by about 0.76% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 15,063, and that in cotton yarn futures was 29 lots. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,850, and that of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 91 [19][24][31]. - **Futures and Spot Price Difference**: This week, the price difference between the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 contract was 65 yuan per ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,224 yuan per ton [32]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 11, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,266 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,490 yuan per ton. As of July 10, 2025, the CY index:OEC10s (air - flow yarn) was 14,560 yuan per ton [37][46]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of July 9, 2025, the 1% quota port pick - up price of the imported cotton price index (FC Index):M was 13,545 yuan per ton, a 0.64% month - on - month decrease; the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was 14,324 yuan per ton, a 0.37% month - on - month decrease. The port pick - up price of the imported cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):C32S was 21,061 yuan per ton, a 0.08% month - on - month increase; the port pick - up price of C21S was 20,086 yuan per ton, a 0.10% month - on - month increase; the port pick - up price of JC32S was 22,990 yuan per ton, a 0.09% month - on - month increase [52]. - **Imported Cotton Cost and Profit**: As of July 9, 2025, the cost profit of the imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 816 yuan per ton, and the cost profit of the imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,561 yuan per ton [55]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Conditions - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of May, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 693,900 tons or - 16.71%, and a year - on - year decrease of 315,400 tons or - 8.36%. As of June 15, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 930,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.17% [59]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In May 2025, China imported about 40,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month decrease of about 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of about 86.3%. From September 2024 to May 2025, China imported about 920,000 tons of cotton. In May 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 100,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 20,000 tons or 14.5%, and a month - on - month decrease of about 20,000 tons or about 16.67%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative imported cotton yarn was 560,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.8% [63]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of June 15, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.864 days, a month - on - month increase of 6.8%, and the grey cloth inventory was 35.46 days, a month - on - month increase of 7.81% [67]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was 838.33 billion yuan, a 2.1% increase compared to the same period last year. Among them, the export of textiles was 420.14 billion yuan, a 3.7% increase, and the export of clothing was 418.19 billion yuan, a 0.6% increase. In May, the export of textile and clothing was 188.84 billion yuan, a 0.2% year - on - year increase and an 8.9% month - on - month increase. Among them, the export of textiles was 91 billion yuan, a 2.3% decrease and a 0.9% month - on - month increase, and the export of clothing was 97.84 billion yuan, a 2.6% increase and a 17.6% month - on - month increase [71]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side**: As of May 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 613.8 billion yuan, a 3.3% year - on - year increase [75]. 3.4 Option and Stock Market - related Market - **Option Market**: This week, the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton was analyzed, but specific data was not provided [76]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. was analyzed, but specific data was not provided [80].

Group 1 - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1, 2025, which is expected to have severe impacts on the copper market and Chilean exporters [1] - Chile is a major supplier of copper to the U.S., accounting for approximately 70% of U.S. copper imports in 2024, with exports valued at over $6 billion in 2023 [1] - The new tariffs have already driven copper prices to historical highs, influenced by both actual supply shortages and speculative trading [1] Group 2 - Although the U.S. market accounts for less than 13% of Chile's total copper exports, the tariff's impact extends beyond trade volume, potentially weakening the Chilean peso and increasing local costs [2] - A decline in copper export revenues could exacerbate Chile's public finance pressures, as public debt was 42% of GDP and the fiscal deficit was 2.9% in the previous year [2] - Chilean officials and industry leaders face strategic decisions on whether to risk losing the U.S. market or to explore opportunities in other markets, particularly in Asia and Europe [2]

Core Viewpoint - The "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" aims to restructure global economic governance through high tariffs, dollar depreciation, debt swaps, multilateral currency negotiations, and security fees, indicating potential challenges for the dollar system [1] Group 1: Dollar System Challenges - The internal dilemma of the dollar's reserve status stems from its provision of global liquidity since the Bretton Woods system, leading to persistent trade and current account deficits [6] - The demand for dollars and U.S. Treasury bonds is driven by strategic, risk-averse, and national security considerations rather than trade balance [6] - The implementation of the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" could trigger a sell-off of dollar assets, although the current domestic holding of U.S. Treasuries exceeds foreign holdings, which may mitigate drastic market reactions [6] Group 2: Trade Policies and Currency Dynamics - High tariff policies may narrow the U.S. trade deficit in the short term but cannot fundamentally alter trade structures or address the hollowing out of manufacturing [11] - A single trade policy is insufficient to disrupt the currency landscape; a macro-level approach involving coordinated policies across trade, fiscal, monetary, and industrial sectors is necessary [15] - Even if trade balances change, the distribution of international monetary power may not shift correspondingly due to institutional inertia [15] Group 3: Global Monetary Governance - The global monetary governance structure will not rapidly restructure due to short-term maneuvers; it requires a systematic replacement path involving technology, governance capabilities, and legal foundations [16] - The "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" could negatively impact China’s economy and industries, particularly in electronics, metallurgy, and transportation equipment sectors [16] - Under unilateral pressure and currency depreciation, China's manufacturing sectors, especially in high-tech fields like semiconductors, may face significant losses [20] Group 4: Future of Currency Systems - The U.S. is attempting to create a new global currency anchor system involving "dollars + gold + digital dollars," necessitating China to propose systematic institutional options for participation [21] - The current trade disputes are evolving into currency wars, highlighting the need for the renminbi to establish its own safe asset attributes and financial institutional discourse power to challenge the dollar's dominance [21]

美东时间7月10日周四，媒体援引知情者消息称，本周三，纽约精品投行Allen & Co.举行的公司年会 上，主持人要求贝森特比较他的现任和前任老板，贝森特表示，特朗普和索罗斯两人的脾气和要求、以 及对待事情不耐烦这点都相似。他建议特朗普，在双方讨论贸易公告时保持耐心。 知情者称，在上述不公开的公司年会闭门讨论期间，贝森特称赞特朗普，拥有发现问题和找到解决方案 的独到能力，但也表示，特朗普在执行过程中有时缺乏耐心。 美国财长贝森特被传在最近的一场闭门会议上爆特朗普的料，暗示他可能在特朗普的贸易政策上有影响 力。 据知情者，贝森特在回答现场听众提问时试图淡化特朗普政府关税对通胀的影响，并预测，今年美联储 将有两次降息。他还说，长期借贷成本可能与新冠疫情前持平。 目前不清楚贝森特对最近特朗普的关税决策有多大影响。据央视新闻，7月7日周一，也就是对日韩等14 国发函通知8月1日起新对等关税生效当天，特朗普签署了行政命令，延长所谓"对等关税"暂缓期，将实 施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日。 特朗普的行政令相当于将7月9日这个之前的关税"大限"推迟到了三周多之后的8月1日。这实际上为贸易 伙伴延长了谈判时间，将谈判截止期延 ...

Core Viewpoint - The threat of a 50% tariff on all goods from Brazil by Trump has caused significant turmoil in the Brazilian financial markets, leading to declines in both currency and stock indices [1] Market Reaction - The Brazilian real fell by 0.8% against the US dollar, continuing its previous day's decline [1] - Stock index futures dropped by 1.5% [1] - Interest rate swap contracts experienced a widespread decline [1] - In the New York market, the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF saw a pre-market drop of 3.2% [1] Trade Policy Implications - Brazil has re-entered Trump's trade policy focus after months of relative calm, leading to expectations of increased market volatility in the short term [1] - The proposed tariff is significantly higher than the previously anticipated 10% base rate [1] - Uncertainty remains regarding how effective negotiations between the two countries can be conducted [1] Analyst Insights - Analyst Ilan Albertman from Ativa noted that this tariff threat adds new risk factors to Brazilian local assets, potentially leading to greater volatility [1] - Companies with significant exposure to the US market may need to reassess their cash flows and valuations in light of this development [1]

美股三大股指期货维持在平盘附近，美国前副总统迈克·彭斯批评唐纳德·特朗普的关税政策，称这与他 第一任期内的贸易政策截然不同，将损害美国消费者和企业。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent FOMC meeting minutes reveal significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate decisions, primarily influenced by differing opinions on the impact of tariffs on inflation [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Decisions - A majority of officials lean towards a potential interest rate cut later this year, but there is a notable faction that believes current inflation levels are still far from the 2% target, which does not justify an immediate rate cut [3]. - The FOMC has maintained the interest rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, with 10 out of 19 officials predicting two rate cuts within the year, while 7 believe there will be no cuts until 2025 [3]. Economic Data and Risks - Current economic data has not provided sufficient signals for action, with ongoing risks related to inflation and a weak labor market [5]. - There is a lack of consensus on the impact of tariffs, with opinions ranging from minimal effects to concerns about long-term implications [5]. Market Expectations - Market expectations indicate a likelihood of rate cuts in September and December, as investors await key economic indicators such as CPI and unemployment rates [7]. - The Federal Reserve is also considering enhancing policy communication strategies to clarify its economic forecasts and analyses [7]. Overall Sentiment - The prevailing sentiment among Federal Reserve officials is one of caution, emphasizing patience over aggressive action in response to economic data [8].

Core Viewpoint - Gold has once again fallen below the $3,300 threshold, with market attention shifting towards the details of trade policies and the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes [1] Group 1 - The current price of gold is under pressure, indicating potential volatility in the market [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming trade policy details, which could impact gold prices [1] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes are anticipated to provide insights that may influence investor sentiment towards gold [1]