Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant reduction of tariffs on soybean imports between the US and China, with the US lowering tariffs from 145% to 30% and China from 125% to 10% [1] - China has ceased purchasing US soybeans and corn since mid-January, leading to a complete halt in imports from the US, while increasing purchases from Brazil, which has become the primary supplier [3][4] - Brazil's soybean production is at a record high, and the country has become the largest supplier of soybeans to China, accounting for over 70% of China's imports [8] Group 2 - The US soybean industry is facing challenges due to tariffs, with a significant drop in soybean imports to China, which fell to the lowest level since 2008, with March imports at 3.5 million tons, down 36.8% year-on-year [6] - The US is exploring new markets in India, Egypt, and Mexico, but establishing these alternatives may take one to two decades [6] - China's soybean import structure has changed dramatically, with Brazil now supplying more than 60% of the global trade and over 70% of China's imports, further eroding the US market share [8]

Market Reaction - Major US stock indexes experienced significant declines, with the Dow down 380 points (0.9%), S&P 500 down 1.1%, and Nasdaq down 1.4% in early trading [1] - US stock futures extended losses following President Trump's tariff threats, with Nasdaq futures down 1.9%, Dow futures down 1.5%, and S&P 500 futures down 1.6% [4] Trade Tensions - President Trump proposed substantial tariffs on EU goods and suggested a 25% import tax on Apple if iPhones are not manufactured in the US [2][6] - Analysts expressed concerns that the current rhetoric represents a destabilizing threat, increasing the risk of recession and long-term damage to US credibility [2] Bond Market and Safe Haven Assets - Bond yields dropped sharply, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling 12 basis points to 4.10%, indicating a flight to safety among investors [3] - Gold prices spiked, reflecting market apprehension, while the dollar gained strength [3] Economic Indicators - Traders are monitoring upcoming economic data, including April's new home sales, as they prepare for a bond market close ahead of the Memorial Day weekend [3] Political Developments - The House of Representatives passed President Trump's tax and spending package by a narrow margin, raising concerns about its impact on bond markets and US debt levels [10]

金十数据5月22日讯，欧洲央行会议纪要显示，欧洲央行决策者上月表示，欧元区通胀几乎被遏制，即 便贸易途径可能进一步引发通胀，但贸易紧张局势可能在短期内打压物价。欧洲央行上月在一年内第七 次降息，并警告称，经济增长将受到美国关税的严重打击，这加大了未来几个月进一步放宽政策的押 注。欧洲央行在会议纪要中表示："委员们表示，对通胀将在中期内回归目标水平的信心增强，对通胀 冲击的斗争已接近尾声。因此，反通胀的力量很可能在短期内占据主导地位。"尽管自4月会议以来，贸 易紧张局势在很大程度上有所缓解，但普遍存在的不确定性继续打压市场情绪，使人们坚定地押注欧洲 央行将于6月再次降息。不过，一些政策制定者认为，从长远来看，贸易战将导致通胀。会议纪要补充 称："鉴于破坏全球价值链的破坏性影响，这些委员认为贸易冲击在短期内引发通胀的可能性更大。" 欧洲央行会议纪要：抗通胀的进程已接近尾声 ...

图 点击 上方 硬AI 关注我们 实际上，我们并未看到当前关税新闻及其他事件对公司的任何影响。 受益于AI工具创新与市场需求驱动，Snowflake宣布将全年产品收入预期显著上调至43.3亿美元。公司同时强调，近期关 税政策调整未对业务构成实质性冲击。 硬·AI 作者 | 龙 玥 编辑 | 硬 AI 在美国加征关税阴云下，数据仓库巨头Snowflake交出一份令投资者满意的财报。该公司首席财务官直 言，关税调整并未对其业务造成影响。 Snowflake周三发布的财报显示，截至7月的季度，该公司主要产品收入预计将增长约25%达10.4亿美元， 超过分析师平均预期的10.3亿美元。这也是该公司季度营业收入首次超过10亿美元。 此外，公司同步上调了全年产品收入预测，从42.8亿美元提高到43.3亿美元。 该公司首席财务官Mike Scarpelli在财报电话会议上明确表示： 这一声明暗示了软件行业特别是以数据和AI为中心的业务，可能在短期内不会立即受到贸易紧张局势的负 面冲击。 Snowflake强劲的业绩表现推动公司股价在盘后交易中上涨约7%，收盘价为179.12美元。值得注意的是， 该股从2025年4月4日的低 ...

美联储穆萨莱姆：如果贸易紧张局势持续缓解，通胀可能回到目标水平，劳动力市场保持弹性，当前的 货币政策将保持适当性。 ...

Core Insights - Geopolitical factors, trade tensions, and the unpredictability of U.S. government policies are determining the global environment [1] - These factors have a decisive impact on global economic growth prospects and pose risks to the stability of the financial system [1] - Higher tariffs are expected to primarily affect the United States, with lesser impacts on the Eurozone and Spain [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global environment is significantly influenced by geopolitical factors, trade tensions, and the unpredictability of U.S. government policies [1] Group 1 - Geopolitical tensions are a major determinant of the current global economic landscape [1] - Trade disputes continue to create uncertainty in international markets [1] - The unpredictability of U.S. government policies adds to the complexity of the global economic environment [1]

Group 1 - The gold market is experiencing unprecedented volatility this year, characterized by significant price fluctuations and a shift from "black swan" events to daily occurrences of $100 price swings [1] - Factors contributing to this volatility include tariff disputes, geopolitical tensions, de-dollarization trends, fluctuating Federal Reserve policies, and global recession expectations [1] - Recent trading patterns indicate a bearish sentiment, with gold prices fluctuating around 3222, and key resistance and support levels identified at 3250 and 3200 respectively [3] Group 2 - The silver market opened with slight gains, supported by key technical levels, while a weakening dollar and renewed trade tensions have increased safe-haven demand [6] - Silver prices are currently hovering around 32.33, with potential upward movement if they break through the resistance at 32.65, targeting 33.00 [6] - Short-term trading strategies for silver suggest focusing on selling on rebounds and buying on dips, with critical resistance and support levels identified at 32.65-32.75 and 32.20-32.10 respectively [6]

Group 1 - The European Commission indicates that the economic growth outlook for the Eurozone is facing downward risks due to trade tensions and climate-related disasters [1] - The Eurozone's GDP growth is projected to be only 0.9% this year, down from a previous forecast of 1.3% [1] - By 2026, the Eurozone's economic growth is expected to accelerate to 1.4%, but this is still below the earlier estimate of 1.6% [1] Group 2 - The first quarter GDP growth rate for the Eurozone was revised to 0.3%, below the expected 0.4% [2] - Industrial production in March saw a month-on-month increase of 2.6%, significantly higher than the economists' forecast of 1.1% [2] - The unemployment rate in the Eurozone is expected to decrease from 6.4% in 2024 to 6.3% in 2025, and further to 6.1% in 2026 [2] Group 3 - The European Commission forecasts that consumer inflation in the Eurozone will slow from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.1% in 2025, and further to 1.7% in 2026 [2] - Public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise from 88.9% in 2024 to 89.9% in 2025, and to 91.0% in 2026 [2] - The overall budget deficit as a percentage of GDP is projected to increase from 3.1% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025, and to 3.3% in 2026 [2] Group 4 - Barclays Bank maintains a cautious outlook on the Eurozone's growth prospects due to high current uncertainties and a lack of progress in tariff negotiations between the US and EU [3]

欧盟委员会：受贸易紧张局势和气候相关灾害影响，欧元区经济增长前景面临下行风险。 ...