Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the steel products industry is "sideways consolidation" [3] - The rating for the aluminum industry is "expected short - term range adjustment" [4] Report's Core View - The steel products market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with a pessimistic market sentiment, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. It is expected to move in a sideways consolidation manner [3] - The aluminum market has a complex situation. Although the inventory decline strengthens the fundamental support, the tariff policy is uncertain, the overseas demand is suppressed, and the price is expected to have a short - term range adjustment [3][4] Summary by Relevant Contents Steel Products - **Production Impact**: In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel producers' shutdown during the Spring Festival is expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has shut down on January 5, and most others will shut down around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [2][3] - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase from the same period last year [3] - **Market Situation**: In a pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, the price center moves down, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] - **Viewpoint**: The steel products market is expected to move in a sideways consolidation manner, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum - **Inventory**: On April 10, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 744,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from Monday and 21,000 tons from last Thursday. The overall de - stocking trend in the first half of April remained unchanged [3] - **Industry Operation**: The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 56.1%. Some recycled aluminum plants reduced their April operating levels due to order reduction and inventory pressure, and the short - term industry operating rate is expected to decline slightly [3] - **Tariff Impact**: The US tariff policy may suppress overseas demand and export - oriented die - casting enterprises' orders. China's tariff increase on US goods may raise the import cost of the aluminum industry chain but also release an incremental signal [3] - **Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to have a short - term range adjustment, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up, as well as macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [3][4]

荷兰国际：暂停降息不再是欧洲央行的选择 金十数据4月14日讯，荷兰国际集团的分析师卡斯滕•布热斯基（Carsten Brzeski）表示，暂停降息已不 再是欧洲央行利率制定者的选择。布热斯基说，美国对欧洲商品征收关税，以及特朗普领导下的华盛顿 更普遍的保护主义政策，重新引发了对欧元区经济增长的担忧，而欧洲在国防和基础设施方面的投资计 划似乎给欧元区带来了更乐观的前景。他表示："欧元走强以及能源价格下跌，增加了当前贸易紧张局 势将对欧元区产生的反通胀力量。"他说，欧洲央行似乎正在考虑暂停最近的一系列降息行动，但在周 四的会议上，他们将别无选择，只能继续降息。 ...

FDICI " 科尔尼近日发布全球 2025 年外商直接投资信心指数 （FDICI）报告。该报告调研了解投资者对未来 三年外商直接投资流动情况的看法。 2025年科尔尼外商直接投资信心指数®基于对全球领先企业高管专项调研所得原始数据展开计算。 调研时间是2025年1月。 然而，2025年3月以来，美国实施的"对等关税"机制对多个国家实行差异化税率调整，这一政策变化 引发了国际社会的广泛关注。针对这一贸易政策调整可能产生的区域性影响，特别是对亚洲经济体 的潜在作用，科尔尼全球商业政策委员会给予以下分析，分析基于的信息来源时间截至4月7日： 关税政策对亚太及东南亚地区的直接影响 特朗普总统关税政策可能对亚太地区产生显著影响。 而贸易紧张局势的预兆在FDICI报告的排 名中有所体现，如新加坡的排名从第12位降至第15位，印度从第18位降至第24位。 新加坡经济高度依赖贸易，且常处于中美之间，因此投资者可能担心贸易战对其经济的潜在影 响。 印度的优势在于人才储备（39%）和经济表现（28%），这是投资者青睐的主要原因。 美国新关税措施对亚太及东南亚地区FDI和投资者情绪的影响 鉴于关税政策的高度波动性和不确定性，目前 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices rebounded after hitting a low, currently trading around $3042, recovering all losses from the previous night [1] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.283%, reaching a high of 4.296%, increasing the holding cost of non-yielding assets like gold [1] - Concerns over weak demand for U.S. Treasury auctions and the Federal Reserve's policy outlook are dominating short-term market sentiment [1] Trade Policy - U.S. Trade Representative Tai indicated that there will be no easing of tariff policies in the short term, emphasizing the necessity of short-term pain for long-term competitiveness [3] - Tariffs on 57 trading partners have come into effect, reinforcing U.S. trade barriers and contributing to ongoing global trade tensions [3] - The U.S. is engaged in negotiations with over 50 countries, but a hardline stance is maintained, requiring substantial reductions in tariffs from trading partners for any consideration of tariff relief [3] Market Sentiment - The S&P 500 index fell below 5000, with a cumulative drop of over 12% in four days, resulting in a market capitalization loss of $5.8 trillion [4] - The volatility index (VIX) surged to its highest level since March 2020, indicating widespread market panic [4] - Market expectations suggest a 105 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by year-end, with over 50% probability for a cut in May [4] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown a recovery from recent lows, with potential for significant fluctuations within the range above $2950 [6] - Short-term price movements indicate a challenge around the $3050 level, with key support at $3013 [6] Trading Strategy - Aggressive buying is suggested around $3013, with a stop loss at $2999 and a target of $3053/3076 [7] - For short positions, entry is recommended near $3053, with a stop loss at $3060 and a target of $3033/3013 [7]

期货热点追踪 ICE棉花期货下跌！贸易紧张局势和好天气背后隐藏着什么？ 相关链接 ...

周二，波罗的海干散货运价指数跌至逾四周低点，因持续的贸易紧张局势导致各类船舶运价下跌。波罗 的海干散货运价指数下跌59点或4.21%，至1342点，为3月6日以来最低水平。海岬型船运价指数下跌 102点或逾5%，至1915点，为3月5日以来最低水平，且为连续第11日下跌。海岬型船日均获利下跌847 元，至15881美元。巴拿马型船运价指数下跌78点或5.75%，至1278点。巴拿马型船日均获利减少700美 元，至11501美元。超灵便型散货船运价指数下跌11点或1.1%，至954点，达到逾三周最低水平。 ...

对经济衰退的担忧重新抬头 推动金价反弹 金十数据4月8日讯，黄金期货价格上涨，从近四周低点反弹。TICKMILL分析师约瑟夫•达里耶在一份 报告中表示，对经济衰退的担忧重新抬头，贸易紧张局势不断升级，推动了金价的反弹。投资者的注意 力现在转向美联储会议纪要和将于周四公布的通胀数据。达里耶写道，消费者价格指数（CPI）走软可 能会增强人们对降息的乐观情绪，并支撑金价上涨。 ...

法巴银行：欧盟应抵制贸易紧张局势升级的诱惑 金十数据4月8日讯，法巴银行首席经济学家拉戈说，欧盟应该避免对美国的关税进行报复，因为现代宏 观经济模型证实，报复对所有各方的结果都更糟。她在一份报告中表示："对于美国的贸易伙伴来说， 最好抵制升级的诱惑，而是加倍努力强化国内增长引擎。""欧洲在这方面处于特别有利的地位。"欧洲 央行前行长德拉基去年提出的单一市场投资计划，在国防、基础设施和能源领域得到了欧盟领导层的支 持，正是可以做到这一点，其规模超过了美国的双边贸易逆差。她说，紧张局势进一步升级有可能适得 其反。 ...

对于未来黄金价格的走势，市场普遍持乐观态度。多家机构和分析师认为，随着市场避险情绪的持续升 温以及全球货币政策的宽松预期，黄金价格有望继续保持上涨态势。一些机构甚至预测，金价中枢有望 突破3800美元/盎司。 然而，也有分析人士提醒投资者，黄金市场同样存在风险，投资者应谨慎对待。在追逐金价上涨的同 时，也需关注市场动态和风险因素，合理配置资产，以规避潜在的市场风险。 据市场数据显示，自2025年初以来，黄金价格已累计上涨超过18%，涨幅显著。而此次冲破3100美元大 关，更是进一步巩固了黄金在全球金融市场中的地位。 分析人士指出，黄金价格的持续上涨，一方面得益于其作为避险资产的独特属性，另一方面也与全球货 币政策的宽松预期密切相关。随着美联储可能开启降息周期，美元汇率有望走弱，这将进一步提升黄金 的吸引力。 此外，全球央行对黄金的增持也是推动金价上涨的重要因素之一。据预测，全球央行年购金规模有望上 升至1300吨/年，这将为黄金市场提供有力的支撑。 3月31日，全球黄金市场迎来历史性时刻，伦敦现货黄金价格强势冲破3100美元/盎司的关键心理关口， 最高触及3101.51美元/盎司，再创历史新高。 近期，全球地 ...

近期，全球股市普遍遭遇重挫，市场情绪因美国总统特朗普的威胁言论而陷入恐慌。3月31日，亚太市 场开盘后，日经225指数一度大跌4%，韩国KOSPI指数跌幅扩大至2.4%，创下2月10日以来的最低水 平。与此同时，纳指期货跌超3%，显示出全球投资者对市场前景的担忧。 特朗普威胁言论加剧市场不确定性 特朗普在3月30日接受美国全国广播公司电话采访时，就伊朗核问题和俄罗斯石油出口发表了强硬言 论。他威胁称，如果伊朗不与美国就其核问题达成协议，美国将对伊朗进行轰炸，并对其相关产品征 收"二级关税"。此外，特朗普还表示，如果俄罗斯未能促成俄乌停火协议，美国将对俄罗斯石油买家征 收25%至50%的关税。这些言论引发了市场对地缘政治紧张局势升级的担忧，进一步加剧了全球股市的 波动。 美股表现疲软，科技股领跌 作者：观察君 上周，美国三大股指全线下跌，纳斯达克指数累计跌2.59%，道琼斯指数累计跌0.96%，标普500指数全 周累计下跌1.53%。科技股成为重灾区，英伟达累计跌6.82%，Meta下跌3.27%，微软下跌3.18%，亚马 逊下跌1.78%，苹果下跌0.17%，谷歌A则下跌5.89%。市场对特朗普关税政策的担忧 ...