技术面： 基本面： 周五（6月6日）亚盘时段，现货黄金触底反弹收复隔夜部分跌幅，目前继续上探暂交投于3373美元附近。金价周四冲高回落，早些时候盘中白银突破35美元 关口，创13年新高，带动金价一度升破3400关口，创近四周新高至3403.28美元/盎司附近，但随后因中美领导人通话释放的贸易紧张局势缓和信号，现货黄 金价格收盘下跌0.6%，报每盎司3352.65美元。 6月5日，美国总统特朗普与中国国家主席习近平的通话成为全球金融市场的焦点。特朗普在社交媒体上表示，双方在贸易问题上达成"非常积极的结论"，而 中国官方则强调应撤销对华消极举措。这场罕见的领导人对话被市场解读为贸易紧张局势解冻的信号，削弱了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力，导致现货黄金价 格在盘中高点3403.28美元后回落至3352.65美元。尽管如此，黄金今年以来已上涨约28%，显示出其在全球不确定性背景下的强劲需求。贸易紧张局势的缓 解直接影响了避险资产的表现。黄金价格的下跌反映了市场对中美贸易谈判进展的乐观预期。 此外，特朗普近期多次公开呼吁美联储主席鲍威尔降低借贷成本，称高利率阻碍了经济增长。然而，美联储内部对降息的态度分歧明显。美联储理事库格 ...

Core Viewpoint - Procter & Gamble (P&G) is implementing a significant restructuring program that includes cutting 7,000 jobs, approximately 15% of its non-manufacturing workforce, in response to slowing growth and the impact of tariffs [1][2][5] Company Summary - P&G's job cuts were announced by CFO Andre Schulten during the Deutsche Bank Consumer Conference, with the company employing 108,000 people globally as of June 30 [2] - The company is facing challenges in its largest market, the U.S., where North American organic sales increased by only 1% in the fiscal third quarter [2] - P&G plans to raise prices in the upcoming fiscal year due to tariffs, expecting a 3 to 4 cent per share impact on fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and a projected $600 million headwind from tariffs before taxes in fiscal 2026 [3][4] - The restructuring will involve a reevaluation of P&G's portfolio, supply chain restructuring, and corporate organization slimming, with non-core costs estimated between $1 billion to $1.6 billion before taxes [4] - The restructuring is seen as a necessary step to ensure long-term growth, despite the immediate challenges faced by the company [5] Market Reaction - Following the announcement of job cuts, P&G's shares fell over 1% in morning trading, with the stock down 2% year-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500, which has gained more than 1% [6]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank's inflation target will remain stable at 2% [1] - Labor costs are gradually slowing down [1] - Economic growth risks are skewed to the downside [1] Group 2 - Trade tensions may reduce economic growth [1] - Most long-term inflation expectations are around 2% [1] - The inflation outlook is more uncertain than in the past [1]

欧洲央行行长拉加德：贸易紧张局势可能会降低经济增长。 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) indicates that further escalation of trade tensions in the coming months will lead to economic growth and inflation levels falling below baseline forecasts [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has noted that concerns regarding increased uncertainty and market reactions to trade tensions in April have eased [1] - The tightening impact on the financing environment due to these concerns is expected to be less pronounced [1]

Group 1 - The EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic stated that despite the new tariffs imposed by the US on steel and aluminum products, trade negotiations between the EU and the US are progressing in the "right direction" [1] - The US government raised tariffs on steel and aluminum products from 25% to 50%, citing national security as the reason, which has intensified trade barriers [1] - The EU has approved tariffs on €21 billion worth of US goods as a countermeasure to Trump's metal tariffs, targeting politically sensitive agricultural products and other items [2] Group 2 - The EU is preparing to impose additional tariffs on €95 billion worth of US goods in response to Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs and automotive tariffs, which will include products like Boeing aircraft and American-made cars [2] - The OECD warned that the trade tensions initiated by Trump have significantly worsened the global economic outlook, particularly affecting the US [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. has delayed the implementation of a 50% tariff on EU wine and alcoholic beverages until July 9, 2025, providing temporary relief for European exporters and U.S. importers [3] - The EU is heavily reliant on the U.S. market for wine exports, with over 60% of U.S. wine imports coming from Europe in 2024 [5] - The French economy is particularly vulnerable, with wine and beverages accounting for €4.1 billion (8.4% of total exports) and aerospace products at €9.1 billion (18.8% of total exports) to the U.S. in 2024 [6] Group 2 - The EU is seeking a negotiated solution to avoid new tariffs on agricultural products, while also preparing countermeasures worth €100 billion against U.S. products [5][8] - The ongoing trade tensions have led to uncertainty for French exporters, particularly in key sectors like wine, cosmetics, and aerospace [6][8] - The U.S. International Trade Court has ruled against Trump's tariff policies, indicating potential legal challenges to the administration's trade strategies [9][11]

美国总统特朗普4月2日公布了面向全球广泛的对等关税，引发全球贸易市场轩然大波。4月9日，特朗普 暂停了对大多数美国贸易伙伴的对等关税，暂停期限为90天，将高额关税的生效期推迟到7月9日。 据路透社报道，距离对等关税恢复期限仅剩五周，特朗普政府发出紧急信函要求各国在本周三前提交贸 易谈判的最佳方案。 据路透社获得的美国贸易代表办公室的一份信件草案显示，美国政府正在向谈判伙伴施压，要求各国在 关键领域提供最佳方案，包括购买美国工农业产品的关税和配额方案。 报道称，该草案表明，美国政府内部对完成交易存在紧迫感。尽管白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西 特反复承诺多项协议即将达成，但迄今为止，美国仅与英国这一主要贸易伙伴达成协议，且该协议更像 是持续谈判的框架而非最终交易。报道称，目前尚不清楚这封信会具体发送给哪些国家，但目标是那些 正在进行积极谈判的包括日本、越南、印度等国家以及欧盟。 美提高进口钢铝关税欧盟称将反制 美欧关系近期因美国滥施关税持续紧张。欧盟委员会2日表示，本周将向美国提出强有力的理由，要求 美国降低或取消关税。 欧盟委员会发言人奥洛夫·吉尔2日称，欧盟对美国宣布将钢铁进口关税从25%提高到50%表示强 ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) is currently trading around 0.64, down 0.35% from the previous close of 0.6489, indicating a bearish trend in the currency market [1] - Key financial data releases this week include Australia's Q1 GDP growth rate, which, if it shows accelerated growth, could support the AUD despite adverse international trade conditions [2] - The April trade data and building approvals will also be significant; an expansion in the trade surplus or a less severe contraction in building approvals could bolster the AUD [2] Group 2 - The release of China's May PMI data may impact the AUD positively, as increased economic activity in China could enhance Australia's raw material exports [2] - The decline in the April CPI may lead the Reserve Bank of Australia to continue easing monetary policy, with market expectations of three more rate cuts by the end of the year, which could exert pressure on the AUD [2] - The AUD is viewed as a risk asset, and market sentiment can significantly influence its performance; heightened trade tensions remain a primary concern for the currency [2] Group 3 - Analysts emphasize that the Q1 GDP data release is a critical event for Australian traders, with potential shifts in market sentiment affecting the AUD's trajectory [2] - The AUD has been oscillating within a trading range for several weeks, indicating trader indecision regarding future direction; a cautious approach is advised before confirming any upward movement above the 0.6500 level [2] - A breakout above the 0.6500 level could target the earlier year high range of 0.6535-0.6340, with subsequent resistance levels at 0.6600 and 0.6640 [2]