有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/20 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/20 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78660 9755 8.10 三月 77930 9622 8.16 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.17 -1293.68 现货出口 541.23 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/20 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22000 2595 8.48 三月 21550 2622 6.46 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.70 -583.20 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/20 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20770 2538 8.18 三月 20340 2538 8.11 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.61 -1086.05 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/20 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 120400 14839 8.11 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.27 -3376.30 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/20 | | 国内价格 | LME价格 | 比价 | | 均衡比价 | 盈利 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

铝期货方面：2025-06-18日沪铝主力合约开于20520元/吨，收于20680元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨275元/ 吨，涨幅1.35%，最高价达20745元/吨，最低价达到20500元/吨。全天交易日成交135602手，较上一交易日增 加33904手，全天交易日持仓198623手，较上一交易日减少321手。 能源扰动引发铝价上涨 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-19 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20900元/吨，较上一交易日上涨280元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日下跌30元/吨至180元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20750元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日 下跌40元/吨至40元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20760元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上涨25元/吨至55元/ 吨。 库存方面，截止2025-06-16，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存45.8万吨。截止2025-06-18，LME铝库存347000 吨，较前一交易日减少2100吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-06-18 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3170元/吨，山东价格录得3180元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin on June 18, 2025 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Categories Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 78,700 in China and 9,823 in LME with a ratio of 8.04; March price is 78,200 in China and 9,700 in LME with a ratio of 8.09. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.17 with a profit of - 1307.92, and spot export profit is 1072.03 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price is 22,040 in China and 2,626 in LME with a ratio of 8.39; March price is 21,540 in China and 2,654 in LME with a ratio of 6.36. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.70 with a profit of - 797.78 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 20,620 in China and 2,517 in LME with a ratio of 8.19; March price is 20,165 in China and 2,514 in LME with a ratio of 8.12. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.61 with a profit of - 1063.18 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price is 120,000 in China and 14,771 in LME with a ratio of 8.12. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.27 with a profit of - 3535.05 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price is 16,700 in China and 1,967 in LME with a ratio of 8.50; March price is 16,875 in China and 2,001 in LME with a ratio of 10.91. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.90 with a profit of - 793.18 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 330, - 510, - 780, - 950 respectively, and theoretical spreads are 496, 889, 1292, 1694 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 425, - 560, - 655, - 725 respectively, and theoretical spreads are 214, 333, 453, 572 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 425, - 545, - 645, - 725 respectively, and theoretical spreads are 215, 330, 446, 561 respectively [4] - **Lead**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 50, - 55, - 55, - 55 respectively, and theoretical spreads are 210, 315, 421, 527 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 660, - 470, - 330, - 170 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is - 780 with a theoretical spread of 5460 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 25 and - 305 respectively, and theoretical spreads are 475 and 862 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 60 and - 365 respectively, and theoretical spreads are 132 and 260 (also 199 and 261) respectively [4][5] - **Lead**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 230 and 180 respectively, and theoretical spreads are 210 and 322 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc are 3.63, 3.88, 4.63, 0.94, 1.19, 0.78 in Shanghai (three - continuous) and 3.66, 3.79, 4.89, 0.97, 1.29, 0.75 in London (three - continuous) [5]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-18 铝合金与铝价价差走扩 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20620元/吨，较上一交易日下跌10元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日上涨240元/吨至210元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20490元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日 上涨200元/吨至80元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20440元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上涨245元/吨至30 元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-06-17日沪铝主力合约开于20410元/吨，收于20460元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨70元/ 吨，涨幅0.34%，最高价达20475元/吨，最低价达到20355元/吨。全天交易日成交101698手，较上一交易日减 少54378手，全天交易日持仓198944手，较上一交易日减少5356手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-16，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存45.8万吨。截止2025-06-17，LME铝库存349100 吨，较前一交易日减少2100吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-06-17 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3180元/吨，山东价格录得319 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [7] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [7] - Aluminum alloy: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - Aluminum prices may face difficulties in breaking upward without unexpected positive stimuli and could return to the previous plateau after the contract rollover, while the risk of cost collapse should be watched [4] - Alumina supply is expected to remain in excess with the release of new capacity and the recovery of previously maintained capacity, despite current slow提货 issues [6] - Aluminum alloy prices have limited upside during the off - season, but cost support exists, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Group 3: Key Data Aluminum - Spot prices: Yangtze River A00 aluminum was 20630 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; Central Plains A00 aluminum was 20520 yuan/ton; Foshan A00 aluminum was 20420 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On June 16, 2025, the SHFE aluminum main contract opened at 20375 yuan/ton, closed at 20405 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.1%), with a trading volume of 156076 lots and an open interest of 204300 lots [2] - Inventory: As of June 16, 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 45.8 tons, and LME aluminum inventory was 351200 tons, down 2025 tons [2] Alumina - Spot prices: On June 16, 2025, SMM alumina prices were 3200 yuan/ton in Shanxi and Shandong, 3250 yuan/ton in Guangxi, and FOB price in Australia was 370 dollars/ton [3] - Futures: On June 16, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 2850 yuan/ton, closed at 2852 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.73%), with a trading volume of 294017 lots and an open interest of 298925 lots [3] Aluminum Alloy - Prices: On June 16, 2025, Baotai's civil aluminum scrap purchase price was 15400 yuan/ton, mechanical aluminum scrap was 15500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; ADC12 Baotai quote was 19600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Inventory: The total aluminum alloy inventory was 10.73 tons, down 0.41 tons week - on - week [3] Group 4: Market Analysis Aluminum - Supply: There is a risk of production cuts at Rio Tinto's electrolytic aluminum plants in Australia [4] - Demand: Consumption shows signs of weakening marginally, and the inventory drawdown has slowed [4] - Market situation: The soft squeeze may have ended, and upward breakthrough of aluminum prices may be difficult without unexpected positive factors [4] Alumina - Supply: Industry profits have recovered, with production and inventory rising due to capacity restart and new capacity output [6] - Cost: Alumina plants' procurement is conservative, and domestic imported ore prices are hard to rise despite high freight [6] Aluminum Alloy - Market: It is in the off - season, with limited price upside, but cost support exists [6] - Arbitrage: Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities with the 11 - contract becoming a peak - season contract [6] Group 5: Strategies - Unilateral: Aluminum - Neutral; Alumina - Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy - Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: SHFE aluminum positive spread and long AD11 short AL11 [7]

跨期套利跟踪 2025/06/16 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -890 -1100 -1310 -1540 理论价差 497 891 1295 1698 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -560 -855 -1010 -1105 理论价差 215 336 457 578 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -235 -465 -615 -725 理论价差 214 330 445 561 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 65 60 35 45 理论价差 209 315 420 526 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 1920 2120 2260 2480 锡 5-1 价差 1290 理论价差 5448 期现套利跟踪 2025/06/16 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -15 -905 理论价差 114 421 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 105 -455 理论价差 8 137 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源 ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/11 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/11 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 79260 9814 8.06 三月 78770 9730 8.13 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.17 -1195.14 现货出口 375.79 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/11 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22170 2603 8.52 三月 21655 2636 6.39 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.70 -481.62 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/11 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20160 2472 8.15 三月 19880 2465 8.13 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.66 -1240.39 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/11 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 123050 15171 8.11 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.27 -3823.28 跨期套利跟踪 2025/06/11 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -120 -230 -370 -600 理论价差 497 892 1296 1700 锌 ...

Group 1 - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures on June 10 has seen all contracts rise, with the main contract reaching a high of 19,500 yuan and a low of 19,070 yuan, marking an increase of 4.63% [1] - Current market conditions indicate a strong upward trend for casting aluminum alloy, despite being in a traditional off-season for consumption [1] - Institutions suggest that the price difference between ADC12 and A00 is currently around -800 yuan, with historical mid-year lows typically between -1,000 to -1,500 yuan [1] Group 2 - The current spot price for ADC12 is approximately between 19,500 to 20,000 yuan per ton, with production costs at 20,086 yuan per ton, indicating a potential buying opportunity at lower prices [2] - Concerns about severe overcapacity in casting aluminum alloy production and the traditional off-season from June to August suggest a downward trend in the medium to long term [2] - The expected reasonable trading range for AD2511 is projected to be between 18,000 to 19,700 yuan per ton [2]

| 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/06/09 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/06 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/05 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/04 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/03 | -191.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 6 月 10 日） 一、动力煤 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of aluminum alloy futures marks a significant development in China's metal futures market, with the first contract being the 2511 contract, and the market sentiment is cautious due to seasonal consumption factors and price differentials [1][4]. Industry Overview - The aluminum alloy futures market is structured from scrap aluminum to casting aluminum alloy, then to die-cast parts, with the transportation sector being the largest consumer [1]. - The primary delivery standard for the futures is ADC12, which is currently in a consumption off-season, leading to a significant price discount compared to A00 aluminum [1]. Market Dynamics - The current market sentiment is cautious, influenced by the seasonal demand and the price disparity between different quoting platforms, with Jiangxi Baotai generally offering lower prices compared to Shanghai Steel Union and Shanghai Nonferrous [2]. - The market is divided into two categories: high-quality aluminum water for mainframe manufacturers and lower-quality alloy ingots for secondary suppliers, affecting the delivery dynamics [2][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The second quarter is characterized as a consumption off-season, with limited support for aluminum prices due to low demand and high production capacity [4]. - Despite an overall surplus in aluminum alloy production, the actual circulation of alloy ingots is minimal, resulting in low social inventory levels of 10,000 to 20,000 tons, providing some support for prices [4]. Price Expectations - The expected price range for the first trading day of aluminum alloy futures is between 19,000 and 19,800 yuan per ton, with various factors influencing both the upper and lower limits of this range [5]. - The upper limit is based on recent pricing from Jiangxi Baotai and includes additional costs, while the lower limit considers historical cost and price differentials [5]. Trading Strategies - The initial trading strategy suggests a focus on short to medium-term trading, with a recommendation for competitive buying due to the low listing price, while also being cautious of potential price corrections [6]. - Additional strategies include considering options for hedging and potential arbitrage opportunities due to expected seasonal price peaks and price differentials between ADC12 and A00 [7].