市场需求有所修复 11月，制造业PMI小幅回升。体现市场需求的制造业新订单指数回升0.4个百分点至49.2%，表明市场需求有所修复。 从需求结构上看，新订单指数与新出口订单指数差值在10月份出现跳升后，回落1.3个百分点至1.6个百分点。新出口订单指数回升1.7 个百分点至47.6%，是11月制造业新订单指数上升的重要推动因素。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青在接受《每日经济新闻》记者微信采访时表示，10月末中美经贸会谈取得积极成果，对11月出口形成一 定拉动。 王青指出，9月末至10月初推出"两个5000亿"稳增长政策，其中5000亿元新型政策性金融工具已在10月投放完毕，会在11月对基建投资 和制造业投资形成拉动；财政部10月份明确中央财政从地方政府债务结存限额中安排5000亿元下达地方，这将补充地方财力，其中为 项目建设提供2000亿元新增资金。这些都会拉动国内市场需求。 11月30日，国家统计局公布11月中国采购经理指数（PMI）运行情况。 数据显示，11月，中国制造业PMI为49.2%，比10月回升0.2个百分点，景气水平有所改善。其中，生产指数和新订单指数分别为50.0% 和49.2%，分别比上月上升 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Overview - The manufacturing PMI for November is reported at 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from October, but it has remained below the critical line for eight consecutive months [1] - The production index and new orders index for November are 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, indicating improvements in both production and demand [4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.1%, remaining above the critical point for ten months, suggesting continued growth in this sector [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The production expectations index for November is 53.1%, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [5] - The new export orders index has risen to 47.6%, up 1.7 percentage points from October, indicating a stabilization in manufacturing exports [5] - The overall manufacturing market demand is showing signs of recovery, with the new orders index increasing by 0.4 percentage points from October [5] Group 3: Price Trends and Inventory Levels - The purchasing price index for raw materials is at 53.6%, up 1.1 percentage points from October, indicating rising input costs [7] - The finished goods inventory index is at 47.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from October, suggesting smoother sales activities for enterprises [6] Group 4: Service Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index is reported at 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from October, indicating a slowdown in service sector activities [9] - The financial services sector shows strong performance, with business activity and new orders indices both exceeding 55%, indicating robust growth [13] - The construction industry business activity index has improved to 49.6%, up 0.5 percentage points from October, signaling a recovery in construction activities [14]

成为手机软件劫持流量的惯用手段，让消费者不堪其扰。 近日，市场监管总局点名手机"三宗罪"，针对流量截取、强制跳转、恶意设置不兼容等行为，面向相关 企业进行集中提醒与规范引导。 移动互联网时代，小小的一块手机屏幕，早已晋升为流量的主战场。正是在这个战场中，利用算法设计 的引流套路成为许多手机软件劫持用户的基本操作。 比如，被点名的强制跳转，未经用户明确同意，不得擅自更改默认跳转路径。但在现实中，人为更改跳 转路径时有发生，手指点哪未必去哪反倒越来越常见。 市场监管总局披露，这种技术劫持能使广告主获客成本大降，却让用户陷入"鬼打墙"式的浏览体验。 隐私授权默认勾选，弹窗跳过多次才能关闭，手机晃一下就跳转的开屏广告……类似套路 短期利益驱动之下，偷流量的鸡贼操作愈发猖狂。这些幕后操作，并非通过技术赋能、质量提升赢得用 户，而是人为设置技术藩篱，干扰正常的市场秩序，是对市场资源配置效率的极大损耗。 如果手机厂商只会用小算盘，把用户锁定在自我的圈层中，看似是巩固了自己的市场份额，实际上可能 失去更大的市场。 没有开放的生态，没有自由的竞争，任何一款产品都不会走太远。只停留在自家的一亩三分地，抑制潜 在竞争者的进入，互设 ...

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for November is reported at 49.2%, showing a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from October, but remains below the growth threshold for eight consecutive months [1][4] - The production index and new orders index for November are 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, indicating improvements in both production and demand, with the production index returning to the critical point [4][5] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.1%, remaining above the critical point for ten consecutive months, indicating continued growth in this sector [1][4] Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the slight recovery in the manufacturing PMI reflects improved market confidence, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" and recent positive outcomes from US-China trade talks [4][5] - Despite the improvements, there are still significant downward pressures on the economy, particularly due to external uncertainties and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [6][8] - The production activity expectation index for November is 53.1%, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [5] Export and Demand - The new export orders index for November is 47.6%, up 1.7 percentage points from October, suggesting a stabilization in manufacturing exports [5] - All major manufacturing sectors, including high-tech and consumer goods, have seen increases in new export orders, with high-tech manufacturing new export orders rising over 3 percentage points [5][6] Price Trends - The purchasing price index for raw materials is at 53.6%, up 1.1 percentage points from October, indicating rising costs for manufacturers [7][8] - The factory price index is at 48.2%, showing a slight recovery but still in the contraction zone, suggesting that price increases are primarily affecting upstream sectors [7][8] Service Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index for November is 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from October, reflecting a seasonal decline in consumer-related services [9][12] - The financial services sector shows strong performance, with business activity and new orders indices both exceeding 55%, indicating robust growth in this area [12][13] - The construction sector's business activity index has improved to 49.6%, signaling a recovery in construction activities, supported by recent policy measures [13][14]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月30日 估值周观察(11月第5期) 科技主导"反弹周" 策略研究 · 专题报告 证券分析师：王开 021-60933132 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60375429 chengkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980523090002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 近一周（2025.11.24-2025.11.28）海外市场普遍反弹，估值随股价修复。美股领涨，主要指数均上涨3%以上，其中纳斯达克100涨幅 最显著（+4.93%）。欧元区中，德国表现突出；亚洲市场整体温和上涨，恒生科技和日经225涨幅超3%，估值随股价修复。除道琼斯 工业指数，美股主要指数PE扩张均超过1x；纳斯达克、日经225、韩国综合指数、恒生科技PE扩张幅度超过2x。从估值分位数看，标 普500和法国CAC40位于历史较高水平，印度SENSEX30和恒生科技指数处于较低区间。 • 近一周(2025.11.24-2025.11.28)，A ...

10月贷款总额比9月少了3600多亿，十几年数据拉出来一看，确实是根扎眼的下行曲线。 有人立马甩锅美国贸易战，有人开始盘算要不要提前还房贷，还有中年朋友对着手机叹气——上有老下有小，房贷压肩，要是被裁员就真成"中年危机体验 卡"永久持有者了。 先把焦虑按一按，经济这盘棋没那么容易下崩，那些喊着"三驾马车全趴窝"的，多半是只看了局部没看全景。 今天的这篇文章，主要是分析当前中国经济的真实态势、消费与投资遇冷的核心原因及国家层面的破局策略，并为普通人指出在经济结构调整中的发展机 遇，这样的经济新局面前，你是否已经找准了自己的方向？ 最近打开任何一个聊天群，都能刷到有人转发贷款数据图，配文清一色"断崖式下跌""经济要凉"。 拉动经济的消费、投资、出口这三兄弟里，消费和投资确实踩了刹车，但出口这位选手正在偷偷刷业绩。 去年上半年出口总额12.13万亿，今年直接冲过13万亿，逆势上涨的成绩单摆在这里。 对美出口是有点吃力，但东盟、非洲这些"新朋友"接盘接得稳，一带一路沿线国家的订单量噌噌涨，把美国那边的缺口填得严丝合缝。 真正让大家慌神的，是消费和投资这两位"老大哥"动力不足。 10月房贷数据最能说明问题，去年同期1. ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In November, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from October, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1] - The production index and new orders index were reported at 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, with increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 50.1%, remaining above the critical point for ten consecutive months, reflecting ongoing expansion in this sector [1][3] Group 2: Market Demand and Orders - The new orders index for manufacturing increased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.2%, suggesting a recovery in market demand [2] - The new export orders index rose by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, contributing significantly to the increase in the new orders index [2] - Recent policy measures, including the introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools, are expected to stimulate infrastructure and manufacturing investments, thereby boosting domestic market demand [2] Group 3: Inventory and Production Trends - The raw materials inventory index remained below the prosperity line at 47.3%, indicating a continued destocking trend, while the finished goods inventory index also decreased, suggesting accelerated destocking [3] - The difference between the new orders index and the finished goods inventory index expanded by 1.2 percentage points, indicating that companies are focusing on reducing inventory levels [2][3] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The high-tech manufacturing sector continues to show resilience and growth, with a PMI of 50.1%, despite a slight decline from the previous month [3] - The equipment manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8% and the consumer goods manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.4%, both entering contraction territory, indicating a potential need for policy adjustments to stimulate these sectors [3] - The construction sector's business activity index improved to 49.6%, driven by the completion of the 500 billion yuan policy financial tool, which is expected to support infrastructure investment [5]

"面向供应链高质量发展需求，以'共享'为核心的战略框架正重塑产业价值。"龙易介绍了所在企业的具体做法：在数据共享层面，企业依托区块链、隐 私计算等技术打通全环节数据，结合AI大模型实现智能决策；技术共享层面，通过开放型技术中台降低企业数字化门槛，提供弹性算力支撑；生态共享层 面，构建全球协作网络助力企业拓展市场边界；价值共享层面，建立合理收益分配机制与绿色激励体系，兼顾多方权益与可持续发展，形成供应链转型的完 整闭环。 "此外，企业数字化转型需遵循从基础到生态的递进路径，以算力设施为重要引擎逐步深化。"龙易进一步说道，首先要推进基础设施数字化，实现生 产、物流等环节的实时监控与自动化调度；进而推动业务流程智能化，运用数字孪生等模式优化生产与需求响应效率；最终达成组织形态平台化，通过数字 工具降本增效，依托联盟链实现跨企业协同创新，完成从"工具赋能"到"生态重构"的质变。 "希望通过精准洞察市场需求、提升供应链敏捷响应能力、完善全球化运营服务，助力企业突破发展瓶颈，尤其为中小企业拓展国际市场创造有利条 件。未来我们将继续以'共享、开放、绿色、普惠'为原则，持续构建数据自由流动、价值充分释放的全球供应链网络，为助 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the establishment and investment focus of various mother funds across regions such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Tianjin, with a particular emphasis on sectors like artificial intelligence, biomedicine, and information technology [2] - Shanghai's QFLP cooperation with Singapore's Fenglong Xinghe aims to inject international capital into the Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Fund, with a planned investment of 500 million yuan [7][8] - The Shaoxing Industrial Fund, with a scale of 15 billion yuan, has been officially registered and will focus on strategic industry projects and technological innovation [3] Group 2 - The Yangzhou Shouxihu Guojin Emerging Industry Investment Fund is seeking GP partners to support key projects in tourism and technology sectors [4] - Tianjin's 2 billion yuan innovation mother fund has been established to support strategic emerging industries, including biomedicine and smart manufacturing [5] - The Xiamen Industrial M&A Fund, with a total scale of 5 billion yuan, aims to facilitate mergers and acquisitions in new materials and smart manufacturing [10][23] Group 3 - The establishment of the Beijing Future Science City Advanced Energy Industry Mother Fund focuses on energy storage and hydrogen energy, aligning with national carbon neutrality goals [9] - The Wuhan Future Intelligent Venture Fund, with a scale of 1 billion yuan, targets investments in artificial intelligence and humanoid robotics [19] - The National Commercial Aerospace Development Fund aims to encourage long-term investments in the commercial aerospace sector, with a focus on innovative projects [24]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent statement from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs regarding the prevention of large-scale return of migrant workers to rural areas, emphasizing the need to promote employment rather than restrict movement [3][4]. Summary by Sections Current Employment Situation - There is pressure on migrant workers' employment due to macroeconomic fluctuations and a slowdown in urbanization, leading to reduced job opportunities in sectors like construction and urban infrastructure [4]. - The increase in surplus rural labor is driven by agricultural mechanization and a peak in college graduates, alongside industrial automation releasing new labor, which intensifies competition for jobs [4]. Potential Solutions - **Skill Training**: Strengthening vocational training for migrant workers to enhance their competitiveness in emerging industries. For instance, Chongqing and Shandong have initiated targeted training programs benefiting over 500 rural laborers, including nearly 400 from impoverished households [5]. - **Employment Services**: Improving employment services, particularly through the use of big data and cloud computing to create efficient job information platforms. An example is the employment assistance system in Xinyu City, Jiangxi, achieving over 98% support for returning workers [5]. - **Rural Employment Opportunities**: Shifting focus to explore local employment potential in rural areas, leveraging opportunities in sectors like specialty agricultural products, rural tourism, and education services. Successful cases include rural tourism in Anji, Henan's instrument manufacturing, and e-commerce in Suining [6]. Conclusion - The potential issue of large-scale return of migrant workers can be seen as an opportunity to promote urban-rural integration and rural revitalization. By preparing in advance and enhancing the skills of rural laborers, it is possible to alleviate urban employment pressure and stimulate local economic development [6].