Core Viewpoint - The Turkish central bank has maintained its mid-term inflation target for 2026 while raising the end-of-2025 inflation forecast range, signaling a cautious monetary policy stance amid ongoing price pressures [1][2]. Inflation Forecasts - The end-of-2025 inflation forecast range has been adjusted from 25%-29% to 31%-33%, while the mid-term inflation target for 2026 remains at 16% [2]. - Recent inflation rates have exceeded previous forecasts, primarily driven by rising food prices and persistent core price pressures in housing, utilities, and services [2][3]. Monetary Policy Adjustments - The central bank has slowed its interest rate cuts, reducing the policy rate by 100 basis points to 39.5% in October, while warning of rising inflation risks that could delay the disinflation process [3]. - The finance minister acknowledged the challenges in achieving the end-of-year inflation forecast, indicating potential further tightening of monetary policy if inflation deviates significantly from targets [3]. Market Reactions - Following the release of the latest inflation report, the Turkish lira depreciated slightly against the dollar, and the Istanbul Stock Exchange's banking index fell by 3.4%, reflecting market skepticism regarding the feasibility of the central bank's inflation targets [4]. - Analysts predict that the current policy rate may be insufficient to meet the 2026 target, with expectations of a 150 basis point rate cut in December and a projected inflation rate of 22.5% by the end of 2026, with upward risks [4]. Policy Coordination - The continuity and coordination of monetary and fiscal policies are deemed crucial for effective inflation control and market stability [4]. - The Turkish government has implemented tight monetary policies and fiscal discipline, alongside subsidies for essential goods and structural reforms, to alleviate cost pressures on citizens and enhance economic resilience [4].

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank is expected to implement further monetary easing within the year, with a focus on both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments[1] - The actual GDP growth for the first three quarters was 5.2%, indicating a reduced difficulty in achieving the annual economic development goals[1] - The first window for additional easing measures is anticipated in November, followed by another potential window in January of the following year[1] Group 2: Interest Rate Management - The relationship between policy rates and market rates is currently stable, with DR007 maintaining a premium of no more than 10 basis points over the 7-day OMO rate[2] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to reach a temporary peak at 1.85%, with a favorable premium range of 30-40 basis points over market rates[2] - Commercial banks' net interest margin was 1.42% as of June 2025, reflecting a slight decline, suggesting potential downward space for deposit rates[2] Group 3: Direct Financing Support - The central bank is shifting focus from total credit volume to structural optimization and quality improvement, promoting direct financing development[3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring social financing and money supply growth in relation to nominal economic growth[3] - The evolving financial structure indicates a transition from investment-driven to innovation-driven economic growth, necessitating a broader evaluation of financial metrics[3] Group 4: Risk Considerations - Potential risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts and unexpected financial crises abroad[4]

JerryZang 笔者认为，美国经济的现状并非强劲，其中会引发重大经济问题爆发的痛点很多，同时来自内部和外部 的负面冲击也不少，如果再叠加可能出现的"黑天鹅事件"的负面影响，那么美国经济的前景并非光明一 片，而是堪忧。 据媒体报道，近日美国亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克宣布他将在2026年2月28日任期届满时退休。同时， 博斯蒂克表示，通胀仍然是美国经济面临的更大风险，他倾向于在12月维持利率不变。 在不久前召开的美联储10月议息会议上，有两张分别主张更大幅度降息和维持利率不变的反对票。这凸 显出美联储内部在货币政策走向方面的巨大分歧。一方面，特朗普总统正在不断向美联储施压，希望美 联储尽快降息；另一方面，美联储主席鲍威尔在不久前的讲话中再次强调了其在货币政策方面的谨慎态 度，并明确表示12月降息并非铁板钉钉。 虽然近期由于美国政府停摆而造成一些重要的经济数据缺失，但是种种迹象表明美国经济面临的下行压 力正在加大，消费者信心也在下降。在这样的背景下，美联储在货币政策问题上的犹豫不定会增加美国 经济面临的不确定性，甚至会错失及时支撑经济的良机。 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作， ...

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the report emphasizes the evolution of the central bank's monetary policy framework, highlighting the shift towards "diminishing quantity targets, strengthening interest rate comparisons, and optimizing structural tools" [1] Group 1: Economic Situation Assessment - The report indicates that the domestic economic recovery requires further consolidation, with a need to promote a smooth transition between old and new growth drivers and to transform the economic development model [2] - It acknowledges the complex international situation and the insufficient growth momentum in the global economy, while asserting that the long-term supportive conditions for China's economy remain unchanged [2] - The report shifts its focus on inflation from assessment to description, noting improvements in price movements and suggesting policies to positively influence reasonable price recovery [2] Group 2: Policy Stance - The monetary policy maintains a "moderately loose" tone, focusing on achieving a "fourfold balance" [3] - The report highlights the need for supportive monetary policy to stabilize growth and inflation, especially in light of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and slowing domestic economic growth [3] - It notes that the non-performing loan ratio and net interest margin of commercial banks have not significantly improved, indicating that the loosening of monetary policy should remain moderate [3] Group 3: Policy Framework Evolution - The report details the evolution of the monetary policy framework, emphasizing the need for liquidity to remain ample and interest rates to be reasonably priced [4] - It states that the focus will shift from "financing and monetary aggregates" to "financial totals," indicating a reduced emphasis on quantity targets, particularly credit growth [5] - The report mentions that the growth rate of RMB loans has dropped to 6.6% in October, a decline of 4.1 percentage points compared to the average growth rate over the past five years [5] Group 4: Price Control Mechanisms - The report stresses the importance of price-based regulation in response to the anticipated decline in financial total growth and increased volatility [8] - It outlines five key interest rate relationships that need to be rationalized, including the relationship between central bank policy rates and market rates, and the relationship between different types of asset yields [8] - The report emphasizes the need for continuous evaluation of financial institutions' interest rate policies and self-regulatory agreements [8] Group 5: Structural Adjustments - The report calls for continued support for key financial initiatives and emphasizes the importance of enhancing data development and utilization in the fintech sector [9] - It reviews the achievements in financial support for the digital economy during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and outlines plans for the 15th Five-Year Plan, focusing on the integration of digital technology and data elements [9]

Group 1 - The agreement officially ends a 43-day government shutdown, allowing federal operations to resume until January 30, 2026 [1] - Market focus is shifting towards the backlog of economic data, which will quickly test the current monetary policy outlook [1] Group 2 - Key missing reports: Federal agencies will begin releasing two months of lagging data, including September and October Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and October Consumer Price Index (CPI) [2] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to release NFP data within 2-5 business days after resuming operations, potentially as early as this weekend or more likely early next week [2] - The rapid release of economic data will challenge the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, with market attention on whether the data indicates a weak labor market (supporting a rate cut in December) or persistent inflation (limiting easing) [2] Group 3 - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects a 66.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, a significant drop from 92% a month ago [3] Group 4 - The resolution of the government shutdown and the upcoming lagging economic data have led to increased volatility in the foreign exchange market [4] - The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) is maintaining a consolidation around 99.00, with a technical bias still leaning towards bullish due to expectations of the Federal Reserve's policy remaining unchanged and future policy uncertainty [5] Group 5 - The USDX is expected to continue consolidating before the upcoming data provides clearer direction, with the 99.00-100.00 range being a critical testing zone for potential breakouts [8] Group 6 - Despite a slight weakening of the dollar, the USD/JPY pair has seen a small increase, indicating that the pair is correcting from last week's temporary strength due to risk aversion [9] - As the U.S. government shutdown nears its end, the main drivers for yen demand are diminishing, pushing USD/JPY back into bullish momentum [9] Group 7 - Gold prices have continued to rise this week, driven by uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy, a weaker dollar, and the diminishing risk of a government shutdown [12] - As of now, gold prices have increased by over 5% this week, with investors reallocating to alternative safe-haven and inflation-hedging assets, anticipating that the upcoming data flood may challenge the Federal Reserve's policy stance [12] Group 8 - Technically, gold has continued to rise after breaking above $4,200, with recent resistance in the $4,180-$4,200 range, indicating a potential breakout [15] - If gold prices maintain a solid breakout above $4,200, it could signal a bullish opportunity, while a pullback near resistance may present a buying opportunity, with recent support around $4,135 [15] Group 9 - The market is expected to remain highly volatile on Thursday, with investors repricing in the context of the U.S. government reopening while awaiting the release of lagging economic data [16] - The dollar is anticipated to maintain a range-bound pattern, with resistance at 100 and support at 99, sustaining a short-term consolidation phase [16] - Gold remains bullish in the current market environment, but caution is advised as prices approach the critical $4,200 level; a solid breakout could lead to further upward movement, while resistance may result in short-term consolidation or pullback [16]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight weakness on November 13, with government bond futures declining across the board, while interbank bond yields rose by approximately 0.5 basis points. The central bank's latest monetary policy report emphasizes stable growth and removes the "preventing capital outflow" statement, maintaining a favorable outlook for the bond market [1][8]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.26% at 116.13, the 10-year main contract down 0.1% at 108.41, the 5-year main contract down 0.08% at 105.885, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01% at 102.462 [2]. - Interbank bond yields generally increased slightly, with the 30-year "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 06" yield rising by 0.5 basis points to 2.15%, and the 10-year "25 National Development Bank 15" yield up by 0.35 basis points to 1.876% [2]. International Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields varied, with the 2-year yield up 1.67 basis points to 3.568%, and the 30-year yield down 0.29 basis points to 4.665% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 1.2 basis points to 1.697% [4]. - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds generally fell, with the French yield down 4.7 basis points to 3.375% and the German yield down 1.5 basis points to 2.642% [4]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 1900 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 972 billion yuan for the day [7]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate down 10.0 basis points to 1.315% [7]. Institutional Insights - Huatai Fixed Income noted that recent regulatory measures by the central bank could help open up space for easing and improve the transmission of interest rates from short to long [8]. - CITIC Securities suggested that in the current environment of fluctuating long-term rates, investors should focus on coupon strategies and maintain a flexible approach to enhance returns [9].

本周，美联储官员密集发声，但对于12月是否降息释放出不同信号，美联储内部分歧巨大，降息节奏争 议升级。 美联储内部在三个关键问题上存在深刻分歧：关税驱动的涨价是否一次性、就业放缓的根源，以及利率 是否仍具限制性。 鸽派代表美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰持续呼吁加快宽松步伐，主张在12月降息50个基点，最低也应为25个 基点。 米兰强调，货币政策具有12至18个月的滞后效应，认为"若仅依据当前数据制定政策，那就是在向后 看"。 鹰派阵营则担忧过早放松可能逆转抗通胀成果。圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长阿尔贝托·穆萨勒姆表示， 他预计美国经济将在2026年一季度显著反弹，并强调进一步降息空间有限。 穆萨勒姆警示高通胀正严重冲击中低收入家庭，重申美联储必须坚持控通胀目标，将通胀率降至2%。 中间派官员则倾向于保持谨慎。今年拥有投票权的波士顿联邦储备银行行长苏珊·柯林斯明确表示，短 期内进一步降息的门槛"相对较高"，将利率维持在当前水平一段时间可能是合适的做法。 美国联邦政府部分"停摆"导致关键经济数据中断，加剧了美联储政策的不确定性。 根据最新芝商所美联储观察（Fed Watch）工具，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为66.9% ...

Group 1 - The overall outlook for precious metals is expected to continue a strong oscillation at high levels in the short term, driven by various market factors [1] - The expectation of the U.S. government reopening and the return of interest rate cut expectations are contributing to a bullish sentiment for gold prices [2] - The retirement of Atlanta Fed President Bostic is likely to lead to a more dovish stance within the Federal Reserve, further supporting gold and silver prices [2] Group 2 - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve are a significant factor pushing gold prices higher, with potential implications for a $500 increase in gold prices if the Supreme Court rules in favor of the President [3] - Increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainties are creating upward pressure on gold prices, as investors seek alternatives to U.S. Treasury bonds [3] - The recent technical correction in gold prices has alleviated overbought market conditions, contributing to a renewed bullish momentum [3]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.07% at 4,000 points, while the Shenzhen Component fell 0.36% and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.39%[15] - Hong Kong stocks rose, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 0.85% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 0.16%[10] - European markets closed higher, with the Euro Stoxx 600 up 0.7% and the German DAX rising 1.2%[8] - U.S. markets showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.7% nearing record highs, while the Nasdaq fell 0.3%[8] Commodity and Currency Trends - OPEC revised its outlook, indicating a global oil supply surplus earlier than expected, leading to a 4.18% drop in WTI crude oil prices to $58.49 per barrel[26] - Gold prices increased by 2.4%, while silver prices surged, reflecting market expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve[26] - The Japanese yen fell below the 155 mark against the U.S. dollar for the first time since February[26] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields decreased by 2-5 basis points, with the 10-year yield at 4.07%[29] - The auction of $42 billion in 10-year Treasuries was relatively stable, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.43[29] - Asian bond markets saw a widening of spreads by 0-2 basis points due to selling pressure[29] Key Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance on interest rates, with potential for a 10 basis point cut in Q4 if domestic demand does not recover sufficiently[5] - The Chinese central bank is focusing on enhancing the internal coordination of the interest rate system, transitioning from aggregate control to structural optimization[5] Sector Performance - In the A-share market, financial stocks led gains, with Agricultural Bank of China up 3.5% and China Life Insurance rising 4%[15] - In Hong Kong, financial stocks also performed well, with notable increases in Agricultural Bank and China Life, while home appliance stocks surged following positive sales reports[10]

Group 1: Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DR001 closed at 1.42 with a -9.02bp change, DR007 at 1.49 with a -2.21bp change, GC001 at 1.54 with a -10.00bp change, and GC007 at 1.50 with a -3.00bp change [3] - SHBOR 3M remained at 1.58 with no change, and LPR 5 - year stayed at 3.50 with no change [3] - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese government bonds closed at 1.35 (-1.80bp), 1.52 (-2.00bp), and 1.80 (-1.60bp) respectively, while 10 - year US Treasury bonds closed at 4.09 with a 2.00bp increase [3] - The central bank conducted 1955 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 655 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1300 billion yuan [3] - This week, 4958 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 783 billion, 1175 billion, 655 billion, 928 billion, and 1417 billion maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The central bank's Q3 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report stated that it will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, use various tools to keep social financing conditions relatively loose, improve the monetary policy framework, and strengthen policy implementation and transmission [4] - Promoting a reasonable recovery of prices is an important consideration for monetary policy to keep prices at a reasonable level [4] Group 3: Stock Indexes and Futures - The CSI 300 fell 0.13% to 4645.9, the SSE 50 rose 0.32% to 3044.3, the CSI 500 fell 0.66% to 7243.2, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.72% to 7486.4 [5] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 19450 billion yuan, a decrease of 486 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - Industry sectors showed more declines than gains, with insurance, mining, pharmaceutical commerce, medical devices, and beauty care sectors leading the gains, while photovoltaic equipment, non - metallic materials, wind power equipment, power supply equipment, power grid equipment, and electronic chemicals sectors leading the losses [5] - IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts showed different price changes and volume/position changes. For example, IF volume increased by 93 to 120690, and its open interest increased by 3.9% to 273421 [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - The macro news was calm, and the stock index continued to fluctuate. The current macro situation is a mix of positives and negatives, lacking a core driving force [6] - There are disagreements in the market regarding the further increase of technology stock valuations and the transition from a structural market to a full - fledged slow - bull market [6] - Short - term market differences are expected to be digested during the stock index's volatile adjustment, and new driving factors such as overseas liquidity release or domestic fundamental improvement will be key for the market to rise [6] Group 5: Futures Contract Premium/Discount - IF showed premiums of 0.79%, 3.80%, 2.76%, and 3.15% for the current, next, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts respectively [7] - IH had a - 3.33% discount for the current contract and premiums for other contracts [7] - IC and IM contracts generally showed premiums [7]