美联储理事米兰周三再次表示，他预计通胀将回落，并再次呼吁降低利率。米兰说："我认为我们必须 把货币政策调整到位——让它摆脱过于紧缩的状态，从而消除部分经济下行风险。"米兰预计在其美联 储理事任期于明年1月结束后，将重返白宫经济顾问职位。他在美联储最近两次利率决策会议上均投下 反对票，主张降息50个基点，而非美联储最终实施的25个基点降息。米兰还警告不要"从表面"解读通胀 数据。（格隆汇） ...

美联储米兰：我们保持独立性的唯一途径是不参与货币政策以外的事务。 来源：滚动播报 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔周三在声明中表示，能与博斯蒂克共事是一种"荣幸"，称其在政策讨论中声音稳健， 其领导强化了美联储机构并推动了使命的实现。 博斯蒂克则表示，他为自己在亚特兰大联储任职期间取得的成就感到自豪。他在周三的声明中说： "我为任期内取得的成就感到自豪。我们让惠及全民的经济这个崇高目标更趋现实。我期待 在我的下一个篇章中探索新途径来推动这一宏伟愿景。" 博斯蒂克决定退休的时间点，正值美联储华盛顿总部的七名理事成员需共同批准系统内12家地区联储主 席的新一轮五年任期，任期将自明年3月1日起生效。 亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克（Raphael Bostic）周三表示，他将在当前五年任期于明年2月底届满时退 休。亚特兰大联储在声明中表示，博斯蒂克将于2026年2月28日卸任。 三年前，博斯蒂克因披露自己未遵守美联储高级官员个人金融交易相关规定而受到审查。当时，他仍获 得了董事会的支持。同年，另有两位地区联储主席因财务问题接受调查后辞职。 美联储监察长去年发布的一份报告指出，博斯蒂克违反了相关政策，造成"似乎基于机密信息行事"的印 象，但调查并未发现他确实利用了内部消息进行交易的证据。 博斯蒂克于2017年出任亚特兰 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for a balanced monetary policy that supports economic growth while managing risks, aiming for a stable economic environment and achieving a 5% growth target for the year [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Strategy - The central bank plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain relatively relaxed social financing conditions, adjusting according to economic and financial conditions [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring liquidity supply and demand in the banking system and financial markets, using various monetary policy tools to ensure ample liquidity [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Resource Management - The focus is on revitalizing existing financial resources rather than merely increasing credit volume, aligning with the transition from high-speed to high-quality economic development [3][4]. - The current balance of RMB loans is 270 trillion yuan, and the total social financing stock is 437 trillion yuan, indicating a shift in financing structure and the need for more attention to social financing scale [3][4]. Group 3: Interest Rate Relationships - The report discusses the necessity of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy and reduce arbitrage opportunities [4][5]. - Various interest rate relationships are outlined, including those between central bank policy rates and market rates, as well as between different asset types and risk levels [4][5]. Group 4: Capital Market Dynamics - There is a perception that the slowdown in deposit growth is due to funds moving to the stock market, although this is seen as a redistribution of deposits rather than a net decrease [5]. - The adjustment in asset allocation is explained by changes in return rates and price relationships among different assets, influenced by the market-driven interest rate system [5].

Economic Outlook - The current monetary policy is viewed as too restrictive, which may hinder economic growth and job creation [2][6][12] - There is a concern regarding the impact of AI on the labor market, with reports indicating significant job redundancies due to technological advancements [3][10][11] Labor Market Insights - Recent revisions in job data indicate a loss of approximately 1.5 million jobs over 2024 and 2025, suggesting weaker job growth than previously thought [4][5] - The productivity growth has been higher than expected, but job-fueled growth has been lower, raising concerns about the overall health of the labor market [5][10] Sector-Specific Implications - Interest rate-sensitive sectors, particularly real estate and mortgage finance, may benefit from a more stimulative monetary policy, potentially leading to job creation in those areas [6][8] - The ongoing productivity advancements, while beneficial, may lead to a "creative destruction" effect in the labor market, causing discontent among workers who feel excluded from the productivity gains [10][11] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The discussion around inflation is shifting from a traditional view to a focus on price levels, with concerns that easing monetary policy could reignite inflation, particularly in the services sector [9][16] - The Federal Reserve's current stance reflects a debate between supply-side and demand-side economic theories, with a need for a more balanced approach to address labor market consequences [12][13]

Core Points - The Japanese yen has depreciated to 155 against the US dollar, marking the lowest level since February of this year, which is expected to prompt verbal intervention from Tokyo officials to curb the decline [1] - On Wednesday morning in New York, the yen fell by 0.6% to 155.04 yen per dollar before slightly recovering [1] - Concerns are rising that if this trend continues, it may lead to government intervention by Japan [1] - In October, the yen has depreciated approximately 4% against the dollar, making it the weakest performer among G10 currencies [1] - The market is betting on Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's inclination towards a combination of loose monetary policy and fiscal expansion [1]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of Raphael Bostic's retirement from the Federal Reserve in February marks a significant transition in leadership, particularly as he has been a vocal advocate for cautious monetary policy in the face of persistent inflation risks [1] Group 1: Leadership Changes - Raphael Bostic plans to retire in February when his current term ends [1] - Bostic has been the president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve since 2017 and is noted as the first African American to lead a regional Federal Reserve Bank [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Stance - Bostic has consistently expressed concerns about ongoing inflation risks and has urged caution among his colleagues regarding interest rate reductions [1] - Although he did not vote on monetary policy decisions this year, he supported the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in September and October [1] - He emphasized that monetary policy should remain restrictive as long as inflation is above the central bank's 2% target [1]

Report Title - "Bond Daily Report: Emphasize the Transmission of Monetary Policy and Balance the Interest Rate Parity Relationship - Interpretation of the 2025 Q3 Monetary Policy Report" [1] Report Summary - On November 12, 2025, the central bank released the Q3 2025 Monetary Policy Implementation Report. The overall tone has changed, with liquidity, entity financing, cost reduction, exchange rate, and interest rate policies all showing corresponding adjustments [6]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report sends a strong signal for steady growth, is more cautious about the external situation, and strengthens the demand for steady growth led by domestic demand. The policy tone has been adjusted, and the possibility of front - loaded monetary policy next year cannot be ruled out. Although the statement of "preventing capital idling" is removed, the space for significant easing is limited. It also guides the market to rationally view the credit growth rate affected by factors such as debt replacement and proposes to maintain a "reasonable interest rate parity relationship" [3][32]. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 1. Focus on Steady Growth and Acknowledge the Improvement in Price Operation - Be cautious about the external situation and have a strong demand for domestic steady growth and stable expectations. The description of the external environment has become more cautious, and more emphasis is placed on expanding domestic demand in the internal environment. The report describes price operation more positively, acknowledging the marginal changes in CPI and PPI and also emphasizing long - term supply - demand contradictions [3][7][8] 2. Change from "Implementing in Detail" to "Implementing Well", and from "Counter - cyclical" to "Counter - cyclical and Cross - cyclical" - "Implementing in detail" is changed to "implementing well", and "counter - cyclical adjustment" is adjusted to "counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment". This does not mean that the window for aggregate easing is completely closed [3][11] 3. Do Not Mention "Preventing Capital Idling", but Still Pay Attention to Overnight Fund Operation - The statement of "preventing capital idling" is not mentioned, but the control over the money market is strengthened, and it is difficult to expect a significant loosening of capital prices. The operation time of outright repurchase and MLF is clearly defined [3][14][15] 4. Maintain a Reasonable Growth of Financial Aggregates and Pay More Attention to Social Financing and Money Supply - Emphasize maintaining a reasonable growth of financial aggregates, mainly focusing on social financing scale and money supply. The credit growth rate has declined due to the crowding - out effect of replacement bonds. Continue to promote the reduction of the comprehensive social financing cost and pay attention to stabilizing the net interest margin of banks [3][19][20] 5. Exchange Rate Pressure Eases, and the Statement of "Three Resolves" Fades - In the exchange rate statement, the emphasis is on preventing exchange rate over - adjustment risks, and the statement of "three resolves" is faded, indicating that the pressure on the RMB exchange rate has eased [3][23] 6. Do Not Directly Mention "Pay Attention to the Trend of Long - term Interest Rates", but Emphasize Maintaining a Reasonable Interest Rate Parity - The text does not directly mention "pay attention to the trend of long - term yields", but proposes to balance the interest rate parity relationship of each group to smooth the transmission of monetary policy, and lists several key interest rate relationships [3][27]

日本首相高市早苗在关键经济会议后表示，实施适当的货币政策对于同时实现强劲经济和稳定通胀至关 重要。此番表态虽未明确支持加息，但暗示期望日本央行与政府政策方向协同，这为市场对日本央行明 年1月底前加息的普遍预期提供了支撑。 11月12日，高市早苗在政府经济与财政政策委员会会议后作出上述表述。这是她上任后首次召开该会 议，日本央行行长植田和男亦出席。 高市早苗最新言论与她过往被视为货币宽松坚定拥护者的立场形成微妙对比。去年她曾称加息为"荒唐 之举"，但自就任首相以来，其在货币政策上措辞趋于审慎。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 高市早苗在会后的发言显示出在推动政策协调与尊重央行独立性之间的平衡。她表示"将继续共同为经 济发展而努力"，透露出期望央行配合政府总体经济方向的意愿。 然而，她并未直接反对加息，同时要求植田和男定期向该委员会汇报——这延续了以往惯例。植田和男 会后拒绝置评，维持了央行的谨慎姿态。 通过委员会人事任命，高市早苗亦透露出政策倾向。她任命以"再通胀" ...

Group 1: Domestic Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market opened mixed, with energy products leading the gains, as crude oil rose by 2.11% [1] - Most base metals increased, with Shanghai tin up by 1.42%, while precious metals also saw gains, with Shanghai silver rising by 0.96% [1] - Agricultural products mostly declined, with live pigs down by 0.93%, and chemical products also saw a downward trend, with ethylene glycol falling by 0.89% [1] Group 2: Palm Oil Market - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures rose for the second consecutive day, supported by stronger Chicago soybean oil, but faced pressure from weather concerns and weak November export data [2] - The benchmark January palm oil contract closed up by 27 Malaysian Ringgit, or 0.66%, at 4,139 Malaysian Ringgit per ton [2] Group 3: Rubber Market - Current demand for rubber is at its best level post-pandemic, with strong performance in heavy truck data and high operating rates in downstream tire factories [3] - There is a willingness among downstream tire manufacturers to accept orders, but supply remains the core factor, with future production increases dependent on weather conditions [3] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Market - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing strong supply and demand dynamics, with continued inventory reduction during the peak season [4] - The demand for lithium carbonate remains recognized, and there is still upward momentum, although spot prices are lagging, indicating potential profit-taking risks [4] Group 5: Market Events and Trends - The People's Bank of China released its monetary policy report for Q3 2025, emphasizing the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the use of various tools to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions [5] - Indonesia plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to B50 next year, which may impact palm oil exports and tighten global supply, potentially leading to a spike in palm oil prices [9]