会议强调，构建科学稳健的货币政策体系，动态评估完善货币政策框架，丰富货币政策工具箱，加强货 币政策执行和传导。统筹做好金融"五篇大文章"。健全覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系和系统性金融风险 防范处置机制，强化重点领域的宏观审慎管理，完善系统重要性金融机构监管的基本框架。建设规范、 透明、开放、有活力、有韧性的金融市场体系。建设安全高效的金融基础设施体系。完善中央银行履职 的法律基础。 北京商报讯（记者 廖蒙）据人民银行官网消息，12月12日，中国人民银行党委书记、行长潘功胜主持 召开党委会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神，落实全国金融系统工作会议要求，研究部署贯彻落实 举措。中国人民银行各党委成员出席会议。 ...

GDP数据公布后，英镑兑美元小幅下跌0.1%至1.337美元。交易员维持对下周降息25个基点的押注，概率维持在90%。 英国10月GDP意外收缩0.1%，加之通胀预期从两年高位回落，为英国央行下周重启降息周期提供有力支撑。疲弱的增长数据及缓和的价格压力正 推动市场将降息概率推升至90%。 英国国家统计局周五公布的数据显示，10月GDP环比下滑0.1%，低于路透调查经济学家预期的0.1%增长。这是英国经济过去七个月中实现增长后 再度萎缩，分析人士和英国统计局将这一放缓归因于人们对Rachel Reeves增税预算案引发的不确定性。 与此同时，英国央行最新调查显示，家庭对未来12个月通胀预期从8月份两年高位3.6%降至3.5%，五年期通胀预期也下降0.1个百分点至3.7%。这 一缓解为货币政策委员会提供了进一步宽松的空间。 通胀预期回落提振降息前景 英国央行密切跟踪的前瞻性通胀预期调查释放积极信号。调查显示，家庭对未来通胀的预期小幅回落，这被视为支持央行进一步降息的重要依 据。 Pantheon Macroeconomics首席英国经济学家Robert Wood表示，预期回落将让货币政策委员会感到宽慰，预计随着总 ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The financial data in 2025 shows that the growth rates of social financing and M2 are higher than the expected GDP and CPI growth rates, indicating effective financial support for the real - economy and a moderately loose monetary policy [1]. - The focus on quantity targets in the central economic work conference is being gradually淡化, which is an important measure for building a scientific and sound monetary policy system [2]. - Investors are advised to "look down, look comprehensively, and understand clearly" when analyzing financial aggregate data [3]. Section Summaries Financial Data Analysis - **Policy Background**: The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference proposed to match the growth of social financing scale and money supply with economic growth and price level targets. The expected GDP growth in 2025 is about 5% and CPI growth is about 2%. In November 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of social financing and M2 were 8.5% and 8% respectively, higher than the above targets and the nominal GDP growth rate in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting the effectiveness of financial support for the real economy and the moderately loose monetary policy [1]. - **Change in Policy Focus**: Similar statements about quantity targets in previous central economic work conferences did not appear in the 2025 conference news release, indicating a gradual淡化 of the focus on quantity targets [2]. Suggestions for Analyzing Financial Aggregate Data - **Look Down**: In the process of economic structural transformation and with the reduction of real - economy financing demand, the decline in the growth rate of financial aggregate indicators is normal, and there is no need to overly worry [3]. - **Look Comprehensively**: While RMB loan increment is an important indicator, banks support the real economy in multiple ways, and non - bank financial institutions also serve the real economy. It is advisable to use more comprehensive indicators such as social financing and broad money [3]. - **Understand Clearly**: When analyzing financial data, one should not only focus on the apparent readings but also consider the underlying logic, such as base effects and seasonal effects, and fully restore the impacts of local government debt resolution and small - and - medium - sized financial institution risk mitigation [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson expresses greater concern over the labor market's potential deterioration than inflation risks, anticipating a cooling of inflation next year [1][3]. Group 1: Labor Market Concerns - Paulson describes the labor market as "bent but not broken," indicating a significant increase in downside risks, with broader hiring activities remaining weak [2]. - Recent rate cuts totaling 75 basis points have provided some insurance against further deterioration in the labor market [2]. - The current federal funds rate of 3.5% to 3.75% is still considered restrictive, which, along with previous tightening effects, should help bring inflation back to the 2% target [1][3]. Group 2: Inflation Outlook - Paulson is relatively optimistic about inflation, suggesting a significant likelihood of a decline next year, primarily due to the expected waning impact of tariffs on goods prices [3]. - She emphasizes that the current interest rate levels and the cumulative effects of previous tightening policies should assist in achieving the inflation target [3]. Group 3: Decision-Making and Data Dependency - Paulson will gain voting rights on the FOMC in 2026 and anticipates more information by the end of January, which will clarify inflation and employment outlooks [4]. - The recent FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.5% to 3.75%, reflecting a balance between employment market risks and elevated inflation levels [4]. - The meeting saw three dissenting votes, highlighting deep divisions within the committee regarding policy direction [4]. Group 4: Economic Factors and Credibility - Paulson stresses the importance of the Fed's credibility when assessing the economic impacts of factors like tariffs and artificial intelligence [5]. - She notes that if the economy experiences high growth driven by AI, the policy response would differ from scenarios where high inflation risks coexist [5].

【美联储施密德：希望保持货币政策适度限制性】智通财经12月12日电，美联储施密德表示，劳动力市 场正在降温，但仍基本保持平衡；通胀仍过高，经济呈现增长势头。希望保持货币政策适度限制性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasized the importance of implementing the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, focusing on macroeconomic management and financial stability for the upcoming year [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Performance and Policy Direction - The PBOC acknowledged the achievements made over the past year despite external pressures and internal challenges, highlighting the effectiveness of the central leadership in navigating economic complexities [3]. - The meeting underscored the need for a proactive macroeconomic policy to ensure stable economic growth and high-quality development, aligning with the goals set for the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Financial Management - The PBOC plans to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [5]. - There will be an emphasis on enhancing the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and optimizing structural monetary policy tools to support key sectors such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises [5][6]. Group 3: Financial Stability and Risk Management - The meeting highlighted the importance of preventing and mitigating financial risks, maintaining a balance between economic growth, structural adjustments, and financial stability [5]. - The PBOC aims to strengthen financial risk monitoring and establish mechanisms for providing liquidity to non-bank financial institutions under specific scenarios [5][6]. Group 4: Financial Openness and International Cooperation - The PBOC is committed to advancing high-level financial openness while ensuring national financial security, participating in global financial governance reforms, and promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi [6]. - The development of a comprehensive cross-border payment system for the Renminbi and the gradual rollout of digital currency are also key focuses [6].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the acceleration of financial supply-side structural reforms to stabilize economic growth and ensure reasonable price recovery [2] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The meeting highlights the importance of using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions flexibly and efficiently [2] - It stresses maintaining ample liquidity and promoting low financing costs for the economy [2] - The central bank aims to enhance financial support for the real economy, particularly in key areas like expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and support for small and micro enterprises [2] Group 2: Financial Stability - The meeting calls for the prevention and resolution of financial risks in key areas to maintain financial stability [2] - It emphasizes the need to improve the central banking system and build a strong central bank [2] - The central bank is tasked with ensuring the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [2] Group 3: Coordination with Fiscal Policy - There is a focus on optimizing the use of structural monetary policy tools and enhancing coordination with fiscal policy [2] - The goal is to incentivize and guide financial institutions to support key sectors effectively [2]

中国人民银行12月12日消息，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，12月15日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元买断式逆 回购操作，期限为6个月（182天）。 对此，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青分析，一是10月安排5000亿元地方政府债务结存限额，用于化解存量债务及扩大有效投资，这意味着年底前两个月会 加发5000亿元地方债，12月政府债券发行规模会处于较高水平；二是10月5000亿元新型政策性金融工具投放完毕后，接下来会带动配套贷款较快增长；三 是12月银行同业存单到期量达到3.7万亿元，较上月明显增加，为年内最高水平。以上都会在一定程度上造成资金面收紧。 "着眼于应对潜在的流动性收紧态势，央行继续通过买断式逆回购向银行体系注入中期流动性，引导资金面处于较为稳定的充裕状态。这在助力政府债券 发行，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度的同时，也将释放数量型政策工具持续加力信号，显示货币政策延续支持性立场。"王青说。 目前，央行中短期流动性的投放方式已经基本固定，即每月5日前后开展3个月期买断式逆回购、15日前后开展6个月期买断式逆回购、25日前后开展中期 借贷便利（MLF）操作。 "央行继 ...

编辑：王永乐 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 中新社北京12月12日电 (陶思阅)中国人民银行12日发布公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，12月15 日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元(人民币，下同)买断式逆 回购操作，期限为6个月(182天)。 数据显示，12月有4000亿元6个月期买断式逆回购到期。因此，中国央行此次操作意味着当月6个月期买 断式逆回购加量续作，加量规模2000亿元。 "此举有助于熨平短期资金波动，保持市场流动性处于充裕状态。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青说，着 眼于应对潜在的流动性收紧态势，中国央行继续通过买断式逆回购向银行体系注入中期流动性。这在助 力政府债券发行，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度的同时，也将释放数量型政策工具持续加力信 号，显示货币政策延续支持性立场。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 中国央行将开展6000亿元买断式逆回购操作 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 ...

钛媒体App 12月12日消息，美联储保尔森表示，近期降息后，货币政策仍具限制性。明年通胀有很大几 率回落。（广角观察） ...