Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Rebound [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillation [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Rebound [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillation [2] - Shanghai Composite 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Uptrend [4] - CSI 1000: Uptrend [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High - level Oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level Oscillation [4] - Pulp: Oscillation [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Soybean Oil: High - level Oscillation [6] - Palm Oil: High - level Oscillation [6] - Rapeseed Oil: High - level Oscillation [6] - Soybean Meal: Oscillation with a Bearish Bias [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Oscillation with a Bearish Bias [6] - No. 2 Soybeans: Oscillation with a Bearish Bias [6] - No. 1 Soybeans: Oscillation with a Bearish Bias [6] - Live Pigs: Rebound [8] - Rubber: Rebound [10] - PX: Wait - and - See [10] - PTA: Try Shorting at Highs [10] - MEG: Try Shorting at Highs [10] - PR: Wait - and - See [10] - PF: Wait - and - See [10] Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market shows a pattern of gradually increasing supply, relatively low demand, and an entry into the inventory accumulation stage. In the short term, due to emotional disturbances, it's recommended to exit previous short positions and wait and see. For coking coal and coke, with potential supply increases and uncertain demand, attention should be paid to the trends of hot metal and supply. The steel products market has a complex supply - demand situation, with short - term rebounds affected by policies and seasonal factors. The glass market lacks substantial positive factors, and its demand is difficult to recover significantly. The financial market is affected by factors such as policy support for infrastructure projects, economic data, and interest rate policies, with different trends for various stock indices and bonds. The precious metals market, especially gold, is influenced by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies, maintaining a high - level oscillation. The light industry and agricultural products markets have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends, such as the pulp market being in a situation of weak supply and demand, the live pig market expected to rise, and the rubber market having a wide - range oscillation [2][4][6][8][10]. Summaries by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Recently, the iron ore futures price has risen due to emotional factors. Although the global shipping volume and arrival volume have both declined this period, they are still at relatively high levels in recent years. There is an expectation of increased shipping volume later, and the arrival pressure may increase. During the industrial off - season, the output of five major steel products has increased, and the hot metal output is strong. The port inventory is still decreasing. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged. It's recommended to exit previous short positions and wait and see [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Affected by supply - side reform news and Tangshan production restrictions, the prices of black products have risen, and raw materials have followed. There are rumors of some coke enterprises and coal mines resuming production, and the supply is expected to increase. The steel mills are suppressing coke prices, the profit of coke enterprises has shrunk, and the inventory pressure has increased. Attention should be paid to the trends of hot metal and supply [2]. - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: Due to rumors of production reduction policies in Tangshan and supply - side reform news, the futures price has rebounded. In the off - season, the building materials demand has slightly increased, the output of five major steel products has continued to rise, and the total steel inventory is flat. However, the total demand is difficult to show an inverse - seasonal performance [2]. - **Glass**: There is no substantial positive factor in the glass fundamentals. The speculative sentiment in the Shahe area has been reignited. To achieve seasonal inventory reduction, the daily melting volume needs to be reduced below 154,000 tons. With the arrival of the rainy season, the demand is expected to weaken, and the total inventory is at a relatively high level in the past two years. In the long - term, the glass demand is difficult to recover significantly [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: On the previous trading day, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.62%, the Shanghai Composite 50 index rose by 0.07%, the CSI 500 index rose by 0.50%, and the CSI 1000 index rose by 0.53%. Funds flowed into the electronic components and pharmaceutical sectors and out of the coal and energy equipment sectors. With policy support for infrastructure projects and the issuance of special bonds, infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate. It's recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [2][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, and there was a large - scale net withdrawal of funds on that day. The market interest rate was consolidating, and the bond prices rebounded slightly. It's recommended to hold long positions in bonds lightly [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: In the context of high - interest rates and globalization restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting. Central bank purchases are the key factor, and gold's various attributes are affected by different factors such as debt problems, interest rates, and geopolitical risks. Gold is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost price has decreased, and the support for pulp prices has weakened. The papermaking industry's profitability is low, and the demand is in the off - season. The pulp market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Logs**: The daily shipment volume of logs at ports has increased, and the futures first - delivery has boosted market activity. The supply pressure is expected to increase with the increase in arrival volume, but the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Attention should be paid to the impact of the first - delivery on prices [6]. Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: The palm oil inventory in Malaysia has increased for three consecutive months. With the reduction of export tariffs, the export momentum is expected to continue. The demand for soybean oil and its upstream raw materials is expected to increase. However, due to factors such as high inventory and weak demand, the prices of three major oils are expected to oscillate at a high level [6]. - **Meal Products**: The soybean planting area in the US has decreased slightly, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas has improved. With the high - yield of South American soybeans and large - scale imports in China, the soybean meal market is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [6]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply side shows strong price - holding sentiment in the northern region, and the pig price is expected to continue rising. In the southern region, the supply is expected to be tight in July. The average trading weight of live pigs has decreased, and the slaughter enterprise's purchase strategy has changed. The pig price is expected to continue rising [8]. Soft Commodities and Polyester - **Rubber**: On the supply side, the raw material supply is tight due to rainfall in major rubber - producing areas. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rate of the tire industry has a structural rise. The inventory situation is complex, and the rubber price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: PX prices follow oil prices, with a short - term tight supply - demand pattern. PTA's supply - demand is expected to weaken in the medium - term, and its price follows cost fluctuations. MEG's supply - demand is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. PR and PF markets have their own supply - demand and price characteristics, with different trading outlooks [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Macroeconomically, the US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000 instead of increasing, with the first monthly decline in over three years. Trump claimed that the US and Vietnam reached a trade agreement. Fundamentally, there is great uncertainty about the resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State, and Thailand has banned the transit of tin mines from Myanmar, restricting the import supply of tin ore. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and currently, the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. On the smelting side, the Yunnan production area faces a combination of raw material shortages and cost pressures. The waste recycling system in the Jiangxi production area is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level. On the demand side, after the end of the rush to install photovoltaic equipment, the operating rate of some producers has declined. The electronics industry has entered the off - season, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Recently, the tin price has corrected, the spot premium has been lowered to 400 yuan/ton, and the trading is sluggish. Most downstream enterprises are waiting and seeing the current price, and the domestic inventory has increased slightly. However, overseas inventory continues to decline, the LME cancelled warrants have increased, the premium has risen, and the strength of LME tin has driven up the domestic price. Technically, the positions are stable, and both long and short sides are cautious. Attention should be paid to the adjustment at the 270,000 yuan mark. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being, with a reference range of 266,000 - 272,000 yuan [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 268,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month tin is 33,585 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 40 US dollars. The closing price difference between the August - September contracts of Shanghai tin is - 80 yuan, an increase of 50 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 30,442 lots, a decrease of 923 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 631 lots, an increase of 27 lots. The total inventory of LME tin is 2,215 tons, a decrease of 5 tons. The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,955 tons, a decrease of 10 tons. The cancelled warrants of LME tin are 710 tons, a decrease of 25 tons. The warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 6,882 tons, a decrease of 6 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 268,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 269,070 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan. The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is - 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,320 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 38 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10.99 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 257,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,700 yuan. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 261,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,700 yuan. The processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, an increase of 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 174,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, an increase of 144,500 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, a decrease of 33,900 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - The US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000 unexpectedly, the first negative growth since March 2023. The US interest rate futures have fully priced in the Fed's interest rate cut in September. The National Development and Reform Commission has arranged over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025. The preliminary estimate of the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers in China in June is 1.26 million, a year - on - year increase of 29% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. From January to June this year, the cumulative wholesale sales are 6.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 38%. Trump claimed that the US and Vietnam reached a trade agreement, with the US imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and a 40% tariff on trans - shipped goods, and Vietnam "fully opening its market" to the US [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply is expected to remain ample while demand contracts, and prices will continue to face pressure. The basis of soda ash starts to converge, and basis convergence trading may continue. The probability of a short - term halt in the price decline and a rebound for soda ash increases. It is recommended to go long on soda ash in the short - term and short the main contract in the medium - to - long - term [2]. - For glass, the supply decreases slightly, and the industry profit is poor with a downward trend. Demand is expected to weaken further. The basis remains within a normal range, and subsequent market trading is more about policy expectations. The rebound height and strength are expected to be limited. It is recommended to go long on glass at low prices in the short - term and short in the medium - to - long - term [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1183 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1039 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. Soda ash main contract position is 1648012 lots, up 177559 lots; glass main contract position is 1524412 lots, up 22334 lots. Soda ash top 20 net position is - 279455, up 28480; glass top 20 net position is - 205464, up 145295. Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 3674 tons, down 5 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 802 tons, down 55 tons. Soda ash September - January contract spread is - 20, down 5; glass September - January contract spread is - 87, down 2. Soda ash basis is - 15 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; glass basis is 4 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. East China light soda ash is 1175 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1155 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. Shahe glass sheets are 1056 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets are 1070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 82.21%, down 4.25 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75%, down 0.34 percentage points. Glass in - production capacity is 15.68 million tons/year, up 0.14 million tons; glass in - production line number is 222, down 1. Soda ash enterprise inventory is 176.88 million tons, up 0.19 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 6921.6 million heavy boxes, down 67.1 million heavy boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real estate new construction area is 23183.61 million square meters, up 5347.77 million square meters; cumulative real estate completion area is 18385.14 million square meters, up 2737.29 million square meters [2]. Industry News - Deputy Premier Zhang Guoqing emphasized technological empowerment and industrial innovation in Hubei. The National Development and Reform Commission arranged over 300 billion yuan for the third - batch "two major" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 - billion - yuan project list for this year has been fully released. EU Commission President von der Leyen met with Wang Yi, and an important China - EU leaders' meeting is upcoming. The CSRC aims to prevent risks in bond defaults and private funds and optimize capital market mechanisms. In the first half of this year, 12.6 million new A - share accounts were opened, a year - on - year increase of 32.77% [2]. Macro - level and Market Analysis - Guided by the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on capacity reduction, both soda ash and glass prices rose significantly. For soda ash, the domestic operating rate and production declined this week, supply is still ample, and profits have turned negative, indicating a further slowdown in production growth and a possible increase in cold repairs. For glass, one more production line was cold - repaired, and overall production decreased slightly. Photovoltaic glass demand is showing a downward trend [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina futures main - contract oscillated and declined, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Its fundamentals are in a stage of excessive supply and stable demand, with stable bauxite prices providing some cost support. Suggest light - position oscillating trading [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum main - contract oscillated strongly, with decreasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Its fundamentals are in a situation of relatively stable supply, short - term demand decline due to seasonality, and long - term positive expectations, with macro - sentiment dominating market changes. Suggest light - position short - selling on rallies [2]. - The cast aluminum main - contract oscillated strongly, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. Its fundamentals are in a situation of weak supply and demand, with continuous accumulation of industrial inventory. Suggest light - position oscillating trading [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main - contract was 20,680 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main - contract was 3,026 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. The LME aluminum three - month quotation was 2,614.50 US dollars/ton, up 12.50 US dollars [2]. - The main - contract open interest of Shanghai aluminum was 281,092 lots, and that of alumina was 279,051 lots, up 3,556 lots [2]. - The LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 8,625 tons, down 2,000 tons; the LME aluminum inventory was 356,625 tons, up 8,000 tons [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum SHFE inventory was 94,290 tons, down 10,194 tons; the alumina total inventory was 65,645 tons, down 24,650 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,860 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum was 20,850 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,080 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of alumina was 54 yuan, up 45 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium/discount was - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was - 2.97 US dollars/ton, down 2.21 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production was 748.80 million tons, up 16.50 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 720.02 million tons, up 26.32 million tons [2]. - The import quantity of alumina was 6.75 million tons, up 5.68 million tons; the export quantity of alumina was 21.00 million tons, down 5.00 million tons [2]. - The import quantity of aluminum scrap and waste in China was 159,700.92 tons, down 30,651.64 tons; the export quantity was 72.44 tons, up 35.90 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,520.20 million tons, up 2.00 million tons; the production of aluminum products was 576.20 million tons, down 0.20 million tons [2]. - The export quantity of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 55.00 million tons, up 3.00 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.60 million tons, up 3.37 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - In June, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The business volume index has been in the expansion zone for four consecutive months this year [2]. - The US ADP employment in June unexpectedly decreased by 33,000 people, the first negative growth since March 2023. The US interest rate futures fully priced in the Fed's September rate - cut expectation [2]. - The preliminary estimate of the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers in China in June was 1.26 million, a year - on - year increase of 29% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. From January to June, the cumulative wholesale was 6.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission arranged over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch "two - important" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 billion yuan "two - important" construction project list for this year has been fully released [2]. - Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing emphasized accelerating industrial innovation and promoting high - quality development of the manufacturing industry during his research in Hubei [2]. - Fed Chairman Powell said it's hard to say if a July rate cut is too early, and no meeting is excluded. Richmond Fed President Barkin said there is no urgency to change policies [2].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black building materials (steel) sector is short - term oscillatory and bullish [1] 2. Report's Core View - The black building materials (steel) market showed significant price increases on Wednesday and night trading. Although the macro and news aspects are favorable, the fundamental situation has not improved significantly, so the upside potential should be viewed with caution, and the short - term trend is oscillatory and bullish [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, rebar and hot - rolled coils rose significantly, and the night trading closed higher [1] 3.2 Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission recently allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 - billion - yuan "two major" construction project list for this year has been fully issued [1] - As of June 30, 27 cities introduced 34 real - estate market relaxation policies, with many areas optimizing housing provident fund policies, and some cities extending relevant relaxation policy periods [1] - Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing recently investigated the transformation and upgrading and innovation development of the manufacturing industry in Hubei, emphasizing the focus on the real economy and promoting high - end, intelligent, and green development of the manufacturing industry [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On Wednesday, the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils generally increased with good trading volume. Futures prices also rose significantly. In the industrial aspect, due to the decline in raw material prices such as coke, scrap steel, and iron ore, the profit of building materials improved, with a profit of about 100 yuan per ton of steel. Some blast furnaces resumed production but not at full capacity. Electric furnaces continued to suffer deep losses, with a loss of 100 - 150 yuan per ton during off - peak hours, and production continued to decline. The total actual steel supply only increased slightly. The emission reduction and production restriction in Tangshan from July 4 - 15 are beneficial to the market but have little impact on overall production. On the demand side, due to hot and rainy weather, demand continued to show off - season characteristics. The recent central meeting may briefly support the market. The upper resistance level of the rebar main contract moved up to 3100 after breaking through 3050, with an important support level at 2912. The support level of hot - rolled coils is 3026, with a resistance level of 3282 after breaking through 3200. The support level of stainless steel is 12300, and the resistance level is 13000 [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - With the positive macro and news factors already reflected in the market, and without obvious improvement in the fundamentals, the upside potential should be viewed with caution, and the short - term trend is oscillatory and bullish [1]

Group 1: Economic Development and Investment - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) aims to complete the list of all "two重" construction projects by the end of June, with a focus on both "hard investment" and "soft construction" [2][3] - In 2024, the NDRC has allocated 700 billion yuan for special long-term bonds to support major projects, including infrastructure along the Yangtze River and high-standard farmland construction [2] - The NDRC emphasizes the importance of these projects in stabilizing economic operations, optimizing industrial structure, and enhancing public welfare [2] Group 2: Foreign Investment Policies - The NDRC is revising and expanding the "Encouraged Foreign Investment Industry Catalog" to attract more foreign investment, particularly in high-end manufacturing and digital economy sectors [4] - Policies to encourage reinvestment by foreign enterprises in China are being developed, focusing on enhancing resource support and optimizing financial assistance [4] - The NDRC has established a task force to expedite the implementation of significant foreign investment projects, having already facilitated 66 projects with a total investment of 97 billion USD [5] Group 3: Market Competition and Regulation - The NDRC is addressing "involution" in competition, where some industries face structural issues and engage in unhealthy price competition [7] - Measures include promoting innovation, enhancing local regulations to eliminate protectionism, and optimizing industrial layouts to prevent the disorderly expansion of outdated capacities [8] - The NDRC is committed to strengthening market supervision to maintain fair competition and combat illegal activities such as counterfeit goods and price violations [8] Group 4: Consumer Market and Economic Stimulus - The NDRC has reported that as of May 5, over 3 million applications for the vehicle trade-in subsidy have been submitted, indicating strong consumer demand [9] - Retail sales in various categories, including home appliances and digital products, have shown significant year-on-year growth, contributing to an increase in total retail sales [9] - The NDRC plans to enhance the efficiency of fund allocation for consumer subsidies and streamline the application process to improve consumer experience [10]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) aims to complete the issuance of the full list of "two heavy" construction projects by the end of June this year [1] - Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office and spokesperson of the NDRC, emphasized the importance of high standards in organizing and implementing these projects [1]