1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black building materials (steel) sector is short - term oscillatory and bullish [1] 2. Report's Core View - The black building materials (steel) market showed significant price increases on Wednesday and night trading. Although the macro and news aspects are favorable, the fundamental situation has not improved significantly, so the upside potential should be viewed with caution, and the short - term trend is oscillatory and bullish [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, rebar and hot - rolled coils rose significantly, and the night trading closed higher [1] 3.2 Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission recently allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 - billion - yuan "two major" construction project list for this year has been fully issued [1] - As of June 30, 27 cities introduced 34 real - estate market relaxation policies, with many areas optimizing housing provident fund policies, and some cities extending relevant relaxation policy periods [1] - Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing recently investigated the transformation and upgrading and innovation development of the manufacturing industry in Hubei, emphasizing the focus on the real economy and promoting high - end, intelligent, and green development of the manufacturing industry [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On Wednesday, the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils generally increased with good trading volume. Futures prices also rose significantly. In the industrial aspect, due to the decline in raw material prices such as coke, scrap steel, and iron ore, the profit of building materials improved, with a profit of about 100 yuan per ton of steel. Some blast furnaces resumed production but not at full capacity. Electric furnaces continued to suffer deep losses, with a loss of 100 - 150 yuan per ton during off - peak hours, and production continued to decline. The total actual steel supply only increased slightly. The emission reduction and production restriction in Tangshan from July 4 - 15 are beneficial to the market but have little impact on overall production. On the demand side, due to hot and rainy weather, demand continued to show off - season characteristics. The recent central meeting may briefly support the market. The upper resistance level of the rebar main contract moved up to 3100 after breaking through 3050, with an important support level at 2912. The support level of hot - rolled coils is 3026, with a resistance level of 3282 after breaking through 3200. The support level of stainless steel is 12300, and the resistance level is 13000 [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - With the positive macro and news factors already reflected in the market, and without obvious improvement in the fundamentals, the upside potential should be viewed with caution, and the short - term trend is oscillatory and bullish [1]

Group 1: Economic Development and Investment - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) aims to complete the list of all "two重" construction projects by the end of June, with a focus on both "hard investment" and "soft construction" [2][3] - In 2024, the NDRC has allocated 700 billion yuan for special long-term bonds to support major projects, including infrastructure along the Yangtze River and high-standard farmland construction [2] - The NDRC emphasizes the importance of these projects in stabilizing economic operations, optimizing industrial structure, and enhancing public welfare [2] Group 2: Foreign Investment Policies - The NDRC is revising and expanding the "Encouraged Foreign Investment Industry Catalog" to attract more foreign investment, particularly in high-end manufacturing and digital economy sectors [4] - Policies to encourage reinvestment by foreign enterprises in China are being developed, focusing on enhancing resource support and optimizing financial assistance [4] - The NDRC has established a task force to expedite the implementation of significant foreign investment projects, having already facilitated 66 projects with a total investment of 97 billion USD [5] Group 3: Market Competition and Regulation - The NDRC is addressing "involution" in competition, where some industries face structural issues and engage in unhealthy price competition [7] - Measures include promoting innovation, enhancing local regulations to eliminate protectionism, and optimizing industrial layouts to prevent the disorderly expansion of outdated capacities [8] - The NDRC is committed to strengthening market supervision to maintain fair competition and combat illegal activities such as counterfeit goods and price violations [8] Group 4: Consumer Market and Economic Stimulus - The NDRC has reported that as of May 5, over 3 million applications for the vehicle trade-in subsidy have been submitted, indicating strong consumer demand [9] - Retail sales in various categories, including home appliances and digital products, have shown significant year-on-year growth, contributing to an increase in total retail sales [9] - The NDRC plans to enhance the efficiency of fund allocation for consumer subsidies and streamline the application process to improve consumer experience [10]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) aims to complete the issuance of the full list of "two heavy" construction projects by the end of June this year [1] - Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office and spokesperson of the NDRC, emphasized the importance of high standards in organizing and implementing these projects [1]