注：本文发表于《财贸经济》2025年第5期，转载请注明出处。为方便阅读，此版本省略了技术细节、参考文献与脚注。全文请参见中国知网。 内容提要：使用1960—2021年全球191个经济体数据，本文系统考察了实际汇率升值对经济总量赶超的作用。研究发现，第一，实际汇率小幅升值（约4% 左右）不仅有助于国内经济增长，而且在统计层对经济赶超起到拉动作用；第二，经济增长是实现经济赶超的根本手段，对经济赶超的贡献度接近80%， 实际汇率的贡献度约为20%；第三，在经济增长较快时期，实际汇率发挥着更大的正向作用，此时经济体呈现出名义汇率适度贬值、适度通货膨胀和实际 汇率适度升值的组合。而在危机时期，实际汇率大幅贬值会拖累经济赶超速度；第四，经济增速较低、名义汇率大幅波动及高通胀的国家容易陷入"中等 收入陷阱"；第五，与日韩相比，中国在跨越"中等收入陷阱"前经济增速就明显回落，面临更大的赶超压力。 二、文献综述 实际汇率是宏观经济中最重要的相对价格。尽管受货币中性假设影响，传统宏观经济模型并未突出实际汇率的作用，但实际汇率与经济增长之间有着纷繁 复杂的关系，且近年来随着"罗德里克新论"的出现，有关实际汇率与经济增长关系的讨论重 ...

编者按：人工智能的发展及其对就业和经济的影响，已成为舆论界、研究领域和决策圈关注的重点。中国社会科 学院学部委员蔡昉近日出版新书《中国就业新趋势：人工智能如何重塑劳动力市场》，作者并未止步于论述人工 智能带给劳动力市场的冲击和机遇，而是借助经济学、社会学、人口学等跨学科方法，将视野放宽到"人工智能 +"民生福祉和新人力资本。其中，作者精炼地指出中国的居民消费率为何与经济发展水平并不匹配的问题，进一 步挖掘出人口结构与消费分布之间的"人口金字塔消费悖论"，对实现"十五五"时期居民消费率明显提高目标很有 启发意义。 蔡昉/文 中国就业新趋势：人工智能如何重塑劳动力市场 蔡昉著 中信出版集团 2025年10月 如今，中国面临的更为紧迫的课题是，如何在更高的发展阶段顺势而为，在老龄化加深的条件下顶风而上，抓住 机遇显著提高居民消费率、居民消费在"三驾马车"中的比重，以及居民消费对经济增长的贡献率。 从支撑中国经济增长的需求因素来看，多年来货物和服务净出口的贡献已经不显著，周期性地呈现大起大落。以 往的应对举措通常是通过宏观经济政策加大投资刺激力度，进而弥补外需的周期性不足，但此举往往造成资本形 成的过度波动，伴随着基 ...

编者按：人工智能的发展及其对就业和经济的影响，已成为舆论界、研究领域和决策圈关注的重点。中 国社会科学院学部委员蔡昉近日出版新书《中国就业新趋势：人工智能如何重塑劳动力市场》，作者并 未止步于论述人工智能带给劳动力市场的冲击和机遇，而是借助经济学、社会学、人口学等跨学科方 法，将视野放宽到"人工智能+"民生福祉和新人力资本。其中，作者精炼地指出中国的居民消费率为何 与经济发展水平并不匹配的问题，进一步挖掘出人口结构与消费分布之间的"人口金字塔消费悖论"，对 实现"十五五"时期居民消费率明显提高目标很有启发意义。 蔡昉/文 根据世界银行的数据，2023年中国的居民消费率（居民消费总支出占国内生产总值的比重）为39.1%， 低于高收入国家平均水平（58.7%）、中等偏上收入国家平均水平（47.9%）和世界平均水平 （56.5%）。 关于中国居民消费率低下的问题，在经济学界已经成为一个长期讨论的话题，答案莫衷一是。 蔡昉 著 中信出版集团 2025年10月 如今，中国面临的更为紧迫的课题是，如何在更高的发展阶段顺势而为，在老龄化加深的条件下顶风而 上，抓住机遇显著提高居民消费率、居民消费在"三驾马车"中的比重，以及 ...

商务部最新数据显示，今年前11个月，消费品以旧换新带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元，惠及3.6 亿多人次。今年以来，我国共分4批向地方下达3000亿元超长期特别国债资金，支持消费品以旧换新。 政策效应加快释放，带动数字、绿色等新型消费发展向好。 一方面，建议多措并举促进服务消费需求的有效释放，除拓展服务消费补贴范围、培育优质服务供 给外，考虑推动职工法定休假应休尽休，搭配推行中小学春假制度，发挥假日经济对消费的拉动作用， 进一步扩大服务业开放，尤其是要建立更便捷、高效的消费纠纷解决机制，推动消费相关行业的专业化 和标准化发展，通过制定行业标准和指南，帮助消费者更好地识别产品质量，降低感知风险，增强消费 信心。 另一方面，完善以人为本的城镇化改革，释放新市民的住房、教育等需求。建议进一步深化户籍制 度改革，加强教育、医疗、养老、住房等领域投入，推动未落户常住人口均等享有基本公共服务。住房 方面，从短期供求关系看，一线和新一线城市有望完成"止跌回稳"目标，大部分城市仍将面临房价下跌 压力，复苏分化是一个新常态。当前家庭小型化、多样化，人民对"好房子"的追求，以及人在不同阶段 对房子的需求差异等对房市仍有多样性的需 ...

Core Insights - The core argument is that in China's new development stage, the main constraint on economic growth has shifted from the supply side to the demand side, with resident consumption becoming the decisive driving force for growth [1][2]. Demand-Side Constraints - Demand-side constraints, particularly in resident consumption, have become the primary limitation on China's economic growth, influenced by factors such as declining manufacturing advantages, the transition to high-quality development, and demographic changes like population decline and aging [2][3]. - The transition from investment-driven to consumption-driven growth is essential as China faces challenges from a decreasing population and slower income growth, which significantly suppresses resident consumption [2][5]. Economic Growth Dynamics - The relationship between resident consumption rates and economic growth is critical; higher consumption rates correlate with lower probabilities of significant economic slowdown, highlighting the importance of maintaining consumption at levels consistent with development stages to avoid the middle-income trap [3][4]. Barriers to Consumption Growth - Several barriers must be overcome to enhance resident consumption, including the long-term trend of slowing GDP and disposable income growth, which is exacerbated by demographic shifts and the transition to a higher economic development stage [5][6]. - The existing income distribution gap, characterized by a high Gini coefficient, limits overall consumption demand as lower-income households tend to have a higher marginal propensity to consume [6][7]. - Rapid aging and the phenomenon of "getting old before getting rich" further complicate consumption dynamics, as older populations typically have lower consumption rates and face multiple financial burdens [7][8]. Policy Recommendations - To foster necessary changes in consumption dynamics, a shift in mindset and policy is required, focusing on long-term human capital development and job creation to support household income and consumption [8][9]. - Improving income distribution through effective tax and transfer systems is crucial, as current redistributive measures in China are significantly lower than those in many OECD countries, indicating substantial potential for improvement [9][10]. - Expanding the provision of public goods and services is essential, as increased government spending on social services can enhance overall living standards and indirectly support consumption growth [10][11].

有一个许多人意想不到的事实，那就是在中国，一些民间作坊竟然能手工制造出可以飞行的小飞机。普通老百姓都有这个能力，而正规的工厂更是有强大的 制造实力。近年来，美国的经济学家和学者们一直在警告华盛顿的政客们，他们对中国的认知有很大问题。然而，美国的政客们却不愿听从这些意见，仍然 坚持自己的看法。这种固执己见的态度，最终会把美国带向何方呢？ 美国曾寄希望于印度，结果却事与愿违。华盛顿的政策制定者们曾根据一个经济学规律，认为随着中国的经济发展，工人工资将会上涨，这会促使许多企业 将工厂迁往工资更低的地方。根据这一推测，制造业肯定会离开中国，而印度则被认为是最理想的目的地——因为印度人口多，工资低，而且讲英语。过去 的十年里，美国媒体不断报道印度经济的火热，声称印度即将成为接班中国的全球工厂。美国的政客们认为，只要中国的制造业流失，那么中国的经济必定 会遭遇困境，综合国力也会下降。 然而，十年过去了，印度交出的成绩单令美国十分尴尬。外国资本没有如预期般涌入，反而开始撤出。近两年，印度的外资净流入甚至变成了负数，意味着 流失的资本远远超过了流入的资本。印度的制造业进展缓慢，依旧只能进行一些基础的组装工作，技术含量较高的产 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Weight Importance - The issue of "manufacturing weight" has gained significant attention from the central government since the 19th National Congress, with key deployments in the 2020 "14th Five-Year Plan" and subsequent meetings[1] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests maintaining a reasonable manufacturing weight, aiming for a long-term target of 24.5% of GDP, as recommended by UNIDO[1][2] - China's manufacturing value added as a percentage of GDP has decreased from a peak of 32% in 2006 to 25% in 2024, indicating a critical phase for maintaining this ratio[2][14] Group 2: Economic Implications - A manufacturing weight below 20% is a critical threshold that can lead to a downward trend, weakening economic resilience and development potential[15] - The manufacturing sector is essential for breaking through the middle-income trap and is a key driver of national security[4][15] - The investment share in manufacturing has rebounded from 26% in 2020 to 33% by October 2025, highlighting the cyclical relationship between manufacturing value added and investment[2][5] Group 3: International Comparisons - International experience shows a "U-shaped" trend in manufacturing weight, with developed countries maintaining a ratio above 20% to ensure economic stability[13][15] - Countries like Germany and Japan have stabilized their manufacturing weight around 20%, leveraging high-end manufacturing to maintain economic resilience[13][28] - In contrast, Brazil and Argentina have seen their manufacturing weights drop below 20%, leading to economic challenges and a low-value-added industrial structure[38]

Core Viewpoint - The shift in focus from "technological innovation" to "building a modern industrial system" in China's 15th Five-Year Plan is aimed at creating a synergistic relationship where innovation leads industry and industry supports innovation, crucial for establishing a global production system centered on China [1][9]. Group 1: Modern Industrial System - The establishment of a modern industrial system is prioritized to address the shortcomings in China's industrial structure and to enhance the synergy between technological innovation and industrial application [8][30]. - The modern industrial system is seen as essential for transforming technological potential into economic growth, emphasizing the need for a complete support system from basic research to industrial application [8][9]. Group 2: Strategic Emerging Industries - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy, marking the first time since the 12th Five-Year Plan that new energy vehicles are not included [2][10]. - The exclusion of new energy vehicles indicates a transition from a policy-driven growth phase to a market maturity phase, reflecting a shift from scale expansion to quality enhancement in industrial policy [2][10]. Group 3: Involution in Competition - Involution in the new energy vehicle industry has emerged, characterized by low efficiency and stagnant total factor productivity growth, necessitating a policy shift to correct market failures and promote high-end, intelligent, and green transformations [12][15]. - The adjustment in policy aims to guide the industry from price competition to value competition, focusing on core technology breakthroughs and product quality improvements [12][15]. Group 4: Lessons from International Experience - International experiences highlight that dynamic adjustments in industrial policy are common among developed countries, which adapt their support strategies as industries mature [11][12]. - The U.S. and Japan have successfully navigated similar challenges by shifting their focus from broad subsidies to targeted support for advanced technologies, providing a model for China's policy evolution [11][12]. Group 5: Structural Shortcomings and Challenges - China's capital, technology, and talent factors face structural shortcomings that hinder its transition to a developed economy, with a need for improved global competitiveness in these areas [27][30]. - The focus on enhancing the quality of factor inputs and ensuring stable returns on capital is crucial for overcoming the "middle-income trap" and achieving sustainable economic growth [27][30].

Group 1: Achievements during the 14th Five-Year Plan - China's economy grew by approximately 40 trillion RMB during the 14th Five-Year Plan, reaching a total economic volume of 140 trillion RMB, which is equivalent to the total volume of several medium-sized economies [1][2] - Per capita GDP increased from 10,504 USD in 2020 to 13,445 USD in 2024, indicating resilience and vitality in economic development [2][4] - The World Bank adjusted its high-income standard, lowering the threshold from 14,005 USD to 13,935 USD, which brings China closer to crossing the high-income threshold by just 275 USD [2][4] Group 2: Economic Development Requirements for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The 15th Five-Year Plan must achieve an average annual growth rate of 4.5% to 5% and gradually raise inflation to around 2% to support nominal economic growth [8][14] - By 2035, China's GDP needs to exceed 200 trillion RMB and per capita GDP should surpass 20,000 USD, building on the 40 trillion RMB growth achieved during the 14th Five-Year Plan [8][14] Group 3: Challenges and Strategic Responses - Current challenges include low inflation and employment pressures, which could hinder nominal GDP growth if not addressed [13][14] - The need for coordinated fiscal and monetary policies is emphasized to ensure effective resource allocation and improve the business environment [13][14] Group 4: International Trade and Economic Environment - China's trade surplus is projected to reach nearly 1 trillion USD in 2024, with expectations of further growth to 1.2 trillion USD in 2025, reflecting strong external competitiveness [15] - The global trade environment is expected to face significant challenges by 2026, necessitating proactive measures to adapt to changing conditions [15][16] Group 5: Digital Currency and Financial Infrastructure - The rise of digital currencies and financial infrastructure is reshaping global financial dynamics, with China leading in central bank digital currency (CBDC) initiatives [18][19] - The U.S. is focusing on stablecoins to maintain dollar dominance, while other countries are exploring their own digital currency strategies [19][21] - The integration of blockchain technology into traditional payment systems, such as SWIFT, is underway, indicating a shift towards a more digitalized financial landscape [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is focusing on high-quality development and increasing domestic consumption as primary goals for the 15th Five-Year Plan, indicating a shift from reliance on investment and exports to domestic demand and consumption [1][2][3]. Economic Transition - The transition from export dependency to domestic demand has been recognized since the 12th Five-Year Plan, marking a long-term process that may span decades [2]. - The emphasis on Gross National Income (GNI) reflects a growing concern for income distribution among different social strata, aligning with the current economic realities in China [2][3]. - Historical growth in China was heavily reliant on external demand, but as the economy matures, the sustainability of export-driven growth is diminishing [2][3]. Innovation and Technology - The 15th Five-Year Plan will prioritize self-reliance in technology, enhancing the overall effectiveness of the national innovation system, and fostering a development model that integrates education, technology, and talent [3][4]. - The focus on technological innovation aims to boost productivity, which is essential for meeting domestic economic and social development needs [3][4]. Global Competition - The economic transformation is not optional for China but a necessary response to avoid falling into the "middle-income trap," necessitating a shift towards domestic economic reliance and service sector development [4][5]. - In the context of global competition, particularly in artificial intelligence, China and the U.S. are seen as leading players, with both countries having distinct advantages [5][6]. Multilateral Cooperation - The current U.S. administration's withdrawal from multilateral agreements has raised questions about the future of global cooperation, suggesting a need for a new multilateral system that coexists with the U.S.'s bilateral approach [7][8]. - Despite U.S. resistance to multilateralism, the consensus among most countries favors continued multilateral cooperation, indicating a potential shift towards a more complex and fragmented global trade system [8].