Trade Conflict Overview - On October 10, President Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, alongside export controls on key software[1] - China responded by implementing export controls on certain rare earth items and announced additional port fees for U.S. vessels starting October 14[1][2] Economic Impact - If the 100% tariff is implemented, it could reduce China's GDP by approximately 1.5-2.0 percentage points, given that exports to the U.S. account for about 2% of China's GDP in 2024[4] - The U.S. could see its Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase by 1.8-3.6 percentage points due to the new tariffs, significantly higher than the current 1.1-2.1 percentage points[8] Probability of Escalation - The likelihood of a renewed trade war has been adjusted to 40%, up from 30%, reflecting the changing dynamics of U.S. trade negotiations[5] - The probability of maintaining the current tariff rates has been lowered to 60% from 70%[5] Historical Context - The report outlines a timeline of significant events in U.S.-China trade relations since February 2018, highlighting key tariff increases and negotiations[6] Future Considerations - The potential for a meeting between the leaders of China and the U.S. at the APEC summit at the end of October is a critical point to watch[5] - The report emphasizes that both economies are unlikely to completely sever trade ties despite ongoing tensions, given their interlinked economic structures[5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short - term. Factors such as the stalemate in Sino - US tariff negotiations, weather in US soybean - producing areas, and the volume of imported soybeans will influence the market. The US soybean market is also in a state of oscillation, with the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations and weather conditions being the main drivers of short - and medium - term trends [10][34]. - The soybean market will also remain range - bound. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price, while the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season suppress the price [11][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Hints No relevant content provided. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate with a possibility of escalation, which is negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating around the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on the harvest situation, Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the volume of imported soybeans [13]. - The volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in September, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills reached a relatively high level. The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short - term [13]. - The decline in pig - farming profits in China has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. Although the demand for soybean meal increased from August to September, the market will still oscillate due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Likely Positive Factors**: Uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, the relatively low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The high volume of imported soybeans in October and the expected bumper harvest of South American soybeans [14]. Soybeans - **Likely Positive Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [15]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and increased purchases by China, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Weather**: The weather in US soybean - producing areas is currently normal, with a neutral or bearish outlook in the short - term [9]. - **Import Cost**: The cost of imported soybeans is expected to oscillate weakly, with a neutral or bearish outlook due to uncertainties in Sino - US tariff negotiations and US soybean weather [9]. - **Oil Mill Pressing**: The demand for soybean meal is expected to decline in the short - term, and the oil mill's pressing volume has fallen from a high level. The oil mill's开机 rate is expected to decline from a high level, which is bullish [9]. - **Transaction**: The enthusiasm for downstream long - term stockpiling has declined, and market transactions are expected to be low, with a neutral or bearish outlook [9]. - **Oil Mill Inventory**: The soybean meal inventory of oil mills remains at a medium - high level. As the upstream开机 rate declines from a high level, the inventory is expected to fall from a high level, which is bullish [9]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided. 3.6 Soybean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies Soybean Meal - **Fundamentals**: US soybeans are oscillating downward. The domestic soybean meal market is in a narrow - range oscillation, and it may return to an oscillating pattern in the short - term [10]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2900 (East China), with a basis of - 42, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [10]. - **Inventory**: The soybean meal inventory of oil mills is 118.92 million tons, a 4.86% decrease from last week and a 3.04% decrease from the same period last year, which is bullish [10]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish [10]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main players have decreased, and funds are flowing in, which is bearish [10]. - **Expectation**: The soybean meal market will maintain a range - bound pattern in the short - term, influenced by US soybeans [10]. Soybeans - **Fundamentals**: US soybeans are oscillating downward. The domestic soybean market is also oscillating downward, and it will be affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and the volume of imported soybeans in the short - term [11]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4140, with a basis of 187, indicating a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [11]. - **Inventory**: The soybean inventory of oil mills is 719.91 million tons, a 3.63% increase from last week and a 14.38% increase from the same period last year, which is bearish [11]. - **Market**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward, which is neutral [11]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main players have decreased, and funds are flowing out, which is bearish [11]. - **Expectation**: The soybean market will maintain a range - bound pattern, affected by multiple factors [11]. 3.7 Trading Strategies Soybean Meal - **Futures**: US soybeans are oscillating around the 1000 - point mark in the short - term, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly. The M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 2800 and 3000, and short - term range trading is recommended [17]. - **Options Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. Soybeans - **Futures**: The A2511 contract of soybeans is expected to oscillate between 3800 and 4000, and short - term range trading is recommended [20]. - **Options Strategy**: Wait and see [20]. 3.8 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand and Inventory Structure) - **US Soybean Market**: The September USDA report had little impact. The US soybean market is oscillating due to the stalemate in Sino - US trade negotiations and relatively good weather. The bumper harvest of US soybeans is gradually being realized, suppressing the market outlook [34]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain**: The volume of imported soybeans in October is expected to decline from a high level. The soybean inventory of oil mills is at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to decline from a high level. The oil mill's pressing volume has decreased, and the unexecuted contracts have continued to decline [37][38][42]. - **Downstream Demand**: The demand for soybean meal is expected to be weak in the short - term. The pig - farming industry is in a state where the profit has declined, and the inventory of pigs is increasing slightly, while the inventory of sows is decreasing slightly [56]. 3.9 Technical Analysis Soybeans - The soybean futures market has bottomed out and rebounded, affected by the trend of US soybeans and the relative stability of domestic soybean spot prices. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show that the market is in a technical rebound stage but with limited upward space, and it will return to a range - bound pattern, waiting for new guidance [66]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures market is maintaining a range - bound oscillation, affected by US soybeans, rapeseed meal, and domestic demand expectations. Technical indicators show that the market is in a technical consolidation stage, and whether it will rebound or adjust downward remains to be seen [69].

Core Insights - The trade war between the US and China has unexpectedly drawn Australia into its complexities, affecting its economy despite not being a direct participant [1][5][19] Group 1: Economic Impact - Australian stock market fell over 6% within three days following the announcement of new US tariffs on China, with the Australian dollar hitting a five-year low [5] - Australia's economic ties with China and the US are intricate; while the US is only the fourth-largest export market for Australia, the indirect effects of US tariffs are significant due to Australia's close relationships with Asian economies [7] - The depreciation of the Australian dollar, while initially seen as beneficial for export competitiveness, has led to significant input inflation due to global supply chain tensions [9][11] Group 2: Sector-Specific Effects - Australia's beef exports surged by $313 million over four months in July 2025, filling the market gap left by reduced US beef exports to China, with Australian grain-fed beef market share in China increasing from 28% to 45% [11] - The energy and minerals sector is experiencing a shift, with Australian liquefied natural gas benefiting from reduced US competitiveness in the Chinese market, although this growth lacks long-term stability [13] - Overall, the Australian economy has contracted by 0.4% due to the direct and indirect impacts of US tariffs, with potential long-term effects reaching 0.7% if the tariffs persist [13] Group 3: Policy and Geopolitical Risks - The Albanese government is attempting to mend relations with China, achieving agreements to reduce trade barriers for agricultural products, yet faces strategic dilemmas due to its alliance with the US [15] - The uncertainty from the trade war is affecting corporate decision-making in Australia, as businesses navigate the geopolitical risks associated with the US-China rivalry [15][17] - Australia is increasingly facing competition from alternative suppliers like Brazil and Indonesia, which could undermine its market position in the future [17] Group 4: Consumer and Investment Sentiment - Despite some export growth, overall investment in Australia declined by 1.2% in Q2 2025, and consumer confidence has been low for six consecutive months, indicating market concerns about the short-term outlook [19] - The uncertainty stemming from the US-China trade war is impacting multiple countries, with Australia exemplifying the "contagion effect" of global trade tensions [19]

Group 1 - The U.S.-China trade war, which began in 2018, has seen multiple rounds of negotiations and tariffs without a clear resolution, with the fourth round of talks planned [4][10] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's recent remarks indicate a softening stance towards China, acknowledging it as the world's second-largest economy and the largest source of the U.S. trade deficit [5][12] - The agricultural sector, particularly soybean farmers, is under pressure due to a lack of new orders from China, which could lead to significant financial losses for U.S. farmers [6][10] Group 2 - The trade conflict has evolved into a prolonged struggle, characterized by numerous negotiations and tariff increases, with both sides experiencing domestic pressures [10][13] - The U.S. has attempted to rally European allies to apply pressure on China, but has faced challenges in achieving substantial actions from G7 countries [12] - China's position remains firm, expressing willingness to negotiate while also being prepared for confrontation, signaling a long-term strategy in the trade dispute [13]

Core Viewpoint - The refusal of China to purchase U.S. soybeans has created significant concern within the U.S. government, leading to threats of continued tariffs despite potential government shutdowns [1][12]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - Since the onset of the U.S.-China tariff war, both countries have engaged in reciprocal sanctions, with agriculture being a critical battleground alongside essential materials like rare earths [3]. - As of September 28, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported zero soybean orders from Chinese companies, a stark contrast to the 6.5 million tons ordered during the same period last year [3]. - China accounted for 22.1 million tons of U.S. soybean exports in 2024, representing 42% of total exports, but has not placed any orders since May, marking the first occurrence in 27 years [3]. Group 2: Impact on U.S. Farmers - The refusal to purchase U.S. soybeans is described as "devastating" for American soybean farmers, with many facing potential bankruptcy due to the lack of orders [5]. - Despite ongoing negotiations, no resolution has been reached regarding tariffs, and the soybean harvest season has passed, leaving farmers uncertain about future agreements [5]. - In the second quarter, China imported over 30 million tons of soybeans from Brazil and Argentina, indicating a significant shift in sourcing away from the U.S. [7]. Group 3: U.S. Government Response - The U.S. government, particularly the Department of Homeland Security, has stated that tariff collection will continue even in the event of a government shutdown, emphasizing a hardline stance [12]. - The Trump administration maintains that short-term losses from the tariff war are acceptable, with the expectation of future gains for American farmers [7]. - The ongoing tariff strategy is seen as a necessary function for national security, despite the adverse effects on U.S. businesses and consumers [12]. Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - The halt in U.S. soybean orders reflects broader concerns across various sectors, with many companies facing supply chain disruptions and increased costs due to tariffs [14]. - Rising prices from tariffs are expected to be passed on to consumers, indicating potential economic and social governance crises if the current high-pressure tactics continue [14].

Core Viewpoints - The company's own brand business remains strong, with revenue growth driven by customer stocking and pre-orders in Q1 2025, leading to an increase in operating net profit margin and a 54.61% year-on-year profit growth due to one-time gains from the divestiture of Quan Feng Automotive [1] - The company is actively expanding production capacity in Vietnam to mitigate tariff risks, and the anticipated improvement in terminal demand during the US interest rate cut cycle is expected to benefit the company's brands, particularly EGO [1][4] Revenue and Profit Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of $912 million, a year-on-year increase of 11.85%, with profit reaching $95.271 million, up 54.61% [1][2] - The OBM business revenue grew by 16.2%, accounting for 77.5% of total revenue, with OPE revenue at $602 million, a 22.8% increase, primarily driven by EGO [2][3] - The company’s gross margin improved to 33.31%, up 0.37 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the higher proportion of the high-margin EGO brand and a decrease in raw material costs [3] Regional Revenue Breakdown - North America showed strong demand with H1 2025 revenue of $651 million, a 17.9% increase, while Europe and China saw modest growth and decline, respectively [2] - Revenue from China decreased by 8.4% to $59 million, indicating market challenges [2] Cost and Profitability Analysis - The company’s total expense ratio was 24.02%, up 0.93 percentage points year-on-year, with specific increases in sales and management expenses [3] - Adjusted net profit for H1 2025 was $76.031 million, a 23.39% increase, with an adjusted net profit margin of 8.33% [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is accelerating the transfer of production capacity from Nanjing to Vietnam to reduce the impact of US-China trade tariffs, with significant capacity increases expected in H2 2025 [4] - The relocation of the Steinheim factory from Germany to Nanjing is anticipated to be completed by the end of 2025, enhancing long-term competitiveness [4] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are $2.020 billion, $2.266 billion, and $2.526 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.91%, 12.17%, and 11.43% respectively [4] - Expected net profits for the same period are $126 million, $158 million, and $191 million, with corresponding growth rates of 11.95%, 25.68%, and 20.99% [4]

Group 1 - The recent negotiations between China and the US in Madrid revealed a shift in strategy from the US, indicating a lack of confidence in handling China's responses to tariffs [1][3] - The US Treasury Secretary, Bessent, expressed a desire for the EU to take the lead in imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, particularly in the context of energy and technology sectors, highlighting the need for allied support [1][7] - China's assertive stance during negotiations, including a framework agreement on TikTok and investigations into Nvidia, showcased its negotiating power and willingness to counter US actions [3][5][9] Group 2 - The US's pre-negotiation tactics, such as adding Chinese entities to an export control list, were effectively countered by China, which initiated anti-dumping investigations on US imports of simulation chips [5][9] - The EU's mixed response to US pressure for joint tariffs on China reflects internal divisions, with some countries hesitant to align too closely with the US due to economic ties with China [7][8] - The evolving US-China economic relationship is characterized by a dual approach of seeking cooperation while simultaneously testing boundaries, indicating a complex and multifaceted dynamic [10]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that despite Trump's efforts to pressure China, the U.S. has ultimately lost the tariff battle, resulting in a 90-day ceasefire on tariffs between the two countries [1] - The U.S. and China have agreed to suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff starting from August 12, with a duration of 90 days [1] - The outcome of the negotiations was largely determined during the Stockholm talks last month, but U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that any extension required Trump's final confirmation [1] Group 2 - Trump attempted to leverage various tactics, including threatening to impose higher tariffs on China by using the import of Russian oil as a bargaining chip [1] - Trump also used his planned visit to China as leverage, demanding that China concede to U.S. demands or he would cancel the trip [1] - On August 10, Trump publicly urged China to purchase four times the amount of U.S. soybeans, but China remained unresponsive to his demands [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Australia has emerged as a significant beneficiary of the US-China trade war, contrary to expectations that either the US or China would gain the most [1][8]. - The trade war began in March 2018 when the US imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, leading to a series of retaliatory measures from China, which resulted in a loss of price advantage for Chinese products in the US market [3][5]. - Australia, being a major exporter of iron ore and coal, capitalized on the gap left by the US tariffs on Chinese goods, as its products faced lower tariffs in the US market, thus gaining a competitive edge [5][6]. Group 2 - The diplomatic thaw between Australia and China, particularly after the meeting between leaders in November 2022, has led to a significant increase in bilateral trade, with trade volume surpassing 300 billion AUD and creating substantial economic benefits for Australian households and employment [5][6]. - Australia's strategy of balancing economic reliance on China while maintaining security ties with the US presents a precarious situation, as it risks potential backlash if geopolitical tensions escalate [6][8]. - The sustainability of Australia's gains from the US-China trade war is uncertain, as shifts in global supply chains and the potential for changing demand dynamics could impact its current advantages [6][8].

Core Points - The core demand from the Chinese delegation in the latest US-China trade negotiations is the removal of the 20% punitive tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, which would reduce the total tariffs from 55% to 35% [2][4] - Even with the remaining 35% tariffs, Chinese manufactured goods would still maintain a significant cost advantage and competitiveness in the international market [2] Group 1 - The negotiations highlight a critical challenge: whether President Trump will agree to China's demand, which reflects China's firm stance in the ongoing trade conflict [4] - China's strong response to the US tariffs aligns with the public sentiment of its 1.4 billion citizens, emphasizing the importance of national dignity and resistance against unfair tariffs [6] - The necessity to protect China's vast foreign trade industry is paramount, especially for coastal enterprises that heavily rely on US orders, making it essential to negotiate the removal of the additional tariffs [8] Group 2 - The issue of "fentanyl" is framed as a result of US regulatory failures, with China arguing that it should not bear the economic consequences of US domestic issues [8][9] - Should the US refuse to remove the tariffs, China is prepared for a complete breakdown in negotiations, indicating its capability to withstand potential decoupling from the US economy [9] - The Belt and Road Initiative provides China with strategic alternatives, suggesting that the consequences of decoupling would be more detrimental to the US [9] Group 3 - Regardless of the outcome of the negotiations, China's assertiveness and confidence signal that it is no longer a passive player and that the US must acknowledge China's growing strength and influence [11]