经过三轮艰苦谈判后，中美之间的关税战目前处于一种暂时"休战"的状态。表面上看，美国在这场博弈中并没有占到太多便宜，反而让另一个意想不到 的"赢家"浮出水面。特朗普恐怕没有预料到，中国原本下给美国的部分大额订单，被华盛顿的盟友顺势截走，这其中最明显的获益者便是澳大利亚。 就在不久前，澳大利亚总理在公开讲话中盛赞中国的举措，认为中国取消了针对澳大利亚的反制措施和贸易壁垒，中澳之间恢复的经贸合作象征着一种"双 赢"。这一番话几乎不言而喻地点出了谁才是这场关税战的实际受益国。 美国的处境与尴尬 2025年4月，特朗普重返白宫后，急于展现"强硬姿态"。他将对华关税总额迅速推高至104%，紧接着又在一天后追加到145%，试图通过极限施压的方式逼 迫中国妥协。然而，中国的回应干脆而有力，短时间内便将反制关税拉升到125%，毫不退让。这种坚决态度令美国措手不及。 美国财政部长贝森特甚至在采访中直言，中国是唯一敢于正面与美国对抗的国家。这种惊讶并非没有道理，毕竟长期以来，美国在对其他国家施加关税压力 时几乎都是屡试不爽。欧盟往往通过冗长谈判拖延，最后不得不妥协；越南面对关税则干脆低头；日本和以色列更是谨慎示好，唯恐与美国对抗。 ...

风水轮流转：澳大利亚抓住历史机遇，与中国贸易再攀新高 近期，澳大利亚的贸易版图上，一抹鲜亮的中国红正以前所未有的力量挥洒。澳大利亚牛肉出口商Andrew Simpson，作为Bindaree食品集团的 CEO，正亲历着这番热潮。他的冷藏仓库里，印着中文标签的谷饲牛排被工人娴熟地装载入集装箱，它们即将飞往上海的高端超市。令Simpson欣 喜的是，公司对华牛肉出口量在短短半年内飙升了惊人的40%，其中中国市场占据了他总业务量的三分之二。"我们的美国同行连中国海关的门都 摸不着，而我们这里，每分钟都有新订单涌入，"他指向满负荷运转的生产线，难掩激动，"这是一次历史性的机遇，我们抓住了！" Simpson的忙碌，只是澳大利亚各行各业蓬勃发展的一个缩影。从南澳州的阿德莱德，到西澳大利亚州的铁矿码头，再到昆士兰州的煤矿，随处可 见一派繁忙景象。在阿德莱德的葡萄酒庄，工人实行三班倒，加班加点灌装赤霞珠红酒；西澳的铁矿码头，满载铁矿石的巨型散货船正排队驶向 渤海湾；昆士兰的煤矿里，重型卡车昼夜不停地穿梭于矿区之间。就在全球两大经济体为关税大棒互相博弈之际，澳大利亚的货轮却悄然满载， 驶向了繁荣的中国市场。 在这场贸易盛宴中 ...

当地时间13日，巴西总统卢拉签发行政命令实施一项援助计划，帮扶受美国加征高额关税影响的巴西出 口企业。该计划以加强金融信贷和政府收购为核心，重点帮助难以找到替代市场的巴西企业。卢拉表示 巴西主权不容侵犯，将继续主张与美国谈判解决关税争端。 8月初，美国总统特朗普将部分巴西商品的关税从10%上调至50%，巴西咖啡、牛肉、海产品、纺织 品、鞋类和水果等行业受到冲击。根据巴西政府的援助计划，巴西政府将通过巴西国家开发银行管理的 现有出口担保基金提供300亿雷亚尔（约合人民币399亿元）的信贷额度，同时巴西政府还将追加45亿雷 亚尔，用于加强支持中小企业的基金。 巴西总统卢拉：现在让人感到不愉快的是，美国对巴西实施的制裁不存在正当理由。实际上，巴西没有 被征税的理由。我们将继续坚持谈判，我们倾向于谈判，并不想发生冲突。现在我们唯一要求的是我们 的主权不容侵犯。 巴西政府的援助计划还包括减轻出口企业税负，帮助其保持在美国市场的竞争力；支持巴西政府收购原 定销往美国市场的商品，并重新分配供应给公立学校和医院等。据了解，此行政命令须在4个月内获得 巴西国会批准才能持续有效。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

一场惊心动魄的经济保卫战：中国1.3万亿美元"战略空投"助力巴西反击美国关税霸凌 今年年初，特朗普重返白宫，便挥舞着"关税大棒"，对全球展开经济攻势。巴西，作为美国的"后花园"，首当其冲遭受重创。特朗普政府对巴西输美商品加 征高达50%的关税，咖啡、牛肉等巴西支柱产业瞬间被推向"关税火线"。这不仅是对巴西经济的沉重打击，更是对卢拉政府的一场严峻政治挑战。 外汇收入 的断崖式下跌将引发经济核爆，卢拉总统面临着巨大的压力，形势可谓千钧一发。 这并非简单的经济摩擦，更是美国试图通过经济手段干预巴西内政，扶 持亲美势力博索纳罗卷土重来的险恶图谋。 特朗普的这一"王炸行政令"与他对巴西前总统博索纳罗的政治算计息息相关。博索纳罗作为铁杆亲美派，败选后深陷腐败丑闻。特朗普此举，实则为其"捞 人"未遂后的恼羞成怒之举。对比之下，美国对英国、日本、韩国等"听话小弟"的关税分别仅为10%和15%，而对巴西却高达50%，其霸凌行径昭然若揭。 特朗普试图用经济绞索逼迫巴西就范，让亲美势力重掌权力，将巴西重新拉回美国的经济附庸地位。 然而，就在这危急关头，中国的"战略支援"火速抵达。7月30日，中国海关总署批准183家巴西咖啡企业获得 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. announced a punitive tariff of up to 50% on Brazilian imports, targeting Brazil's growing influence in the BRICS nations and challenging the U.S. dollar system [1][3] - Brazil's government responded strongly, claiming the U.S. actions were an infringement on its sovereignty and vowed to retaliate based on the Economic Equivalence Act [3] - A surprising twist occurred when a long list of exemptions was included in the executive order, allowing nearly 700 products, which accounted for 44.6% of Brazil's exports to the U.S., to avoid the additional tariffs [3][6] Group 2 - The U.S. has maintained a trade surplus with Brazil, with total trade nearing $81 billion in 2024 and a cumulative surplus of approximately $410 billion over the past 15 years [6] - Brazil is not just a resource exporter but also a significant market for U.S. industrial goods and services, making the trade relationship highly interdependent [6][10] - The exempted products include critical items such as aircraft, orange juice, and iron ore, which are essential to U.S. industries and supply chains [6][8] Group 3 - The U.S. coffee market, heavily reliant on Brazilian imports, reacted sharply to the tariff threats, with coffee futures prices rising significantly [8] - Brazilian diplomats and business leaders focused their efforts on U.S. interest groups that would be adversely affected by a trade war, leading to a strong internal lobbying effort [10] - The final outcome was a compromise where the high tariffs served as a political statement while the exemptions addressed the economic realities faced by U.S. businesses [10]

Group 1: Core Insights - Japan has resumed beef imports from Japan after a 24-year ban due to BSE, marking a significant shift in trade relations with China [1] - The lifting of restrictions on Japanese seafood imports coincides with the beef import resumption, indicating a broader trend of trade normalization between Japan and China [2] - The strategic decision to enhance economic cooperation with China is influenced by the trade pressures from the Trump administration, particularly the tariffs imposed on Japanese goods [3][5] Group 2: Economic Impact - Japan's beef export value is projected to reach 18 billion yen in 2024, with potential demand from China exceeding 5 billion yen [2] - The Japanese seafood export to China is expected to reach 1.23 billion USD in 2024, accounting for 11.1% of Japan's total seafood exports [2] - The anticipated trade agreements could boost Japan's exports to China to 300 billion USD, representing 35% of its total exports, effectively countering losses from U.S. tariffs [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Chinese market, with its 400 million middle-class consumers, presents a growing demand for high-end food products, including Japanese beef priced at 3,000 RMB per kilogram [7] - Japan's beef currently holds only a 0.3% share of China's total beef imports, which are projected to reach 2.8 million tons in 2024 [7] - Despite the challenges posed by stringent quality checks and public concerns over food safety, the potential for market share growth in China remains significant for Japanese agricultural products [7][2] Group 4: Geopolitical Context - The resumption of Japanese beef imports is not merely a trade decision but reflects the complex interplay of geopolitical and economic interests amid escalating U.S.-China tensions [1][7] - Japan's proactive approach in strengthening ties with China is seen as a strategic move to mitigate the economic impact of U.S. trade policies [5][3] - Continuous efforts from both the Japanese government and businesses are essential to navigate the challenges and achieve a mutually beneficial outcome in this evolving trade landscape [7]

Core Points - The second round of tariff negotiations between South Korea and the United States began on June 20 in Washington, focusing on key issues such as "reciprocal tariffs," non-tariff barriers, and trade imbalances [1][2] - This round of talks is significant as it occurs under the backdrop of the Trump administration's "America First" strategy and is seen as a test of the new and old policy directions of both countries [1] - The negotiations are expected to cover six major areas, including balanced trade, non-tariff barriers, economic security, digital trade, rules of origin, and improvement of the business environment [1] South Korea's Position - South Korea is particularly concerned about the 25% tariffs imposed by the U.S. on imports of steel, aluminum, and certain automotive products, which are framed under the "reciprocal tariffs" policy [2] - The South Korean delegation aims to negotiate significant tariff reductions from the U.S. by leveraging strategic industry cooperation and increasing U.S. product imports as bargaining chips [2] - The South Korean government emphasizes the importance of strategic industry collaboration in sectors like shipbuilding and semiconductors within the Indo-Pacific region to persuade the U.S. [2] U.S. Position - The U.S. has expressed a desire for South Korea to eliminate various non-tariff barriers, including restrictions on beef imports lasting over 30 months [2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary has warned that trade partners lacking sincerity in tariff negotiations may face the reinstatement of previously announced "reciprocal tariffs" [2] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the U.S. will accept South Korea's proposed timeline for reaching a framework agreement before the July 8 tariff buffer period expires [2] Political Context - The upcoming South Korean presidential election on June 3 adds urgency to the negotiations, as achieving a favorable outcome in tariff discussions is viewed as a key measure of the current government's economic diplomacy effectiveness [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the United States will reduce tariffs on British-made cars to 10% and will lower beef tariffs to "near zero" as part of a trade agreement between the US and the UK [1]

Core Viewpoint - China's record import of 7.3 million barrels of crude oil from Canada in March reflects a significant shift in energy trade dynamics amid the US-China trade war, impacting both countries' economies [1][3]. Group 1: Energy Trade Dynamics - The US has imposed a 125% additional tariff on Chinese imports, aiming to suppress China's energy demand, which led to a drastic reduction in China's imports of US crude oil and LNG, with LNG imports dropping to zero and crude oil imports plummeting by 90% from 29 million barrels per month in 2024 to 3 million barrels in March 2025 [1][3]. - Canada has become a new key supplier for China, with the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline facilitating increased crude oil exports, resulting in a significant rise in imports from Canada [3]. - The US is facing substantial losses in oil orders, estimated at several billion dollars monthly, as well as negative impacts on related supply chains and employment [3]. Group 2: Agricultural Trade Changes - The trade war has also affected agricultural exports, with US exports of soybeans to China dropping by 54% year-on-year, while Australia and Brazil have seen significant increases in their beef and poultry exports to China [3]. Group 3: Political and Economic Implications - President Trump has shown signs of softening his stance on tariffs, indicating a desire to lower them to prevent further trade stagnation with China [4]. - Canada is navigating a complex situation, benefiting economically from Chinese orders while politically aligning with the US, creating a contradictory stance [6]. - China has signed a 15-year LNG agreement with the UAE worth approximately 700 billion RMB, marking a significant step in energy cooperation and challenging the dominance of the US dollar [6]. Group 4: Strategic Energy Positioning - China's actions demonstrate a robust capability in energy strategic planning, reducing reliance on US energy and diversifying supply sources, thereby enhancing its energy security [8][9]. - The shift in energy trade dynamics is contributing to a more multipolar global energy market, diminishing the US's previous dominance in LNG exports [9].

观察者网 . 关注我们，一起观察 以下文章来源于观察者网 ，作者刘程辉 特朗普接着说："所以我可能不想让关税再提高，甚至可能不想达到现有水平。我可能想降低关税，因为，你知道的，你希望人们购买商品。" 4月17日，特朗普在白宫会见意大利总理梅洛尼 另一边，特朗普仍在对中国下黑手。他被曝试图借关税施压，强迫各国限制对华贸易。 彭博社17日引述消息人士的话称，数十个国家寻求美国减免或豁免关税，作为交换，美国准备要求这些国家采取措施限制中国制造业实力，以防中国 绕开特朗普的关税政策。 消息人士还称，特朗普的高级经济顾问正考虑一项措施，要求他国对从某些与中国关系密切的国家进口的商品征收二级关税。 来源|观察者网 作者| 刘程辉 在中方连续反制下，连打关税乱拳的特朗普，口风变了。 当地时间4月17日，美国总统特朗普在白宫椭圆形办公室对记者表示，他不想继续提高对中国的关税了，因为这可能会使两国之间的贸易陷入停滞。 彭博社等报道称，在谈到美国会对中国进一步反制措施作何回应时，特朗普对记者暗示，他可能愿意降低关税。 "在某个时候，我不想让关税再提高了，因为到了一定程度，人们就不会购买商品了。" 发言人强调，中方此前已就美单边加 ...