小李做了十年外汇交易，这个数字让他心里"咯噔"一下。他记得很清楚，三年前的2023年，人民币还在7.3附近徘徊。那时候，市 场还在讨论"破8"的可能性。 #热爆趣创赛#"6.8823！" 2026年2月24日下午4点，上海外滩，某外资银行交易员小李盯着屏幕上跳动的数字，手指在键盘上悬停了几秒，然后轻轻敲下确认 键。 这是当天离岸人民币兑美元汇率的盘中最低点。换句话说，1美元只能换6.8823元人民币了。 也就是说，仅仅因为人民币汇率从去年的平均7.14升值到今天的6.88，中国2025年的GDP如果用美元计算，就凭空多出了一个"阿根 廷"。 这不是魔术。这是正在发生的、静默却深刻的金融变局。 汇率这把"尺子"，量出了不一样的"身高" 三年。从7.3到6.88。人民币悄无声息地升值了超过6%。 但这还不是最震撼的。小李顺手打开另一个窗口，调出国家统计局2025年的GDP数据：140.2万亿元人民币。按照全年平均汇率 7.1429换算，是19.63万亿美元。 他脑子里飞快地算了一笔账：如果不用全年平均汇率，就用今天这个6.8823来换算呢？ 140.2万亿 ÷ 6.8823 ≈ 20.37万亿美元。 20.37减 ...

记者 辛圆 2月25日，人民币对美元即期汇率接连升破6.88、6.87关口。 在岸人民币对美元16:30收盘报6.8672，较上一交易日上涨177点，创2023年4月14日以来新高。截止发稿，离岸人民币对美元报6.8667，较昨日上涨129个基 点。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对智通财经表示，节后人民币对美元较快升值，延续了2025年12月以来的偏强走势。背后或有三方面原因。 第三方面，王青认为，近期人民币对美元持续升值后，此前出口高增累积的结汇需求在加速释放。最新结售汇数据显示，2025年12月和2026年1月，银行代 客结售汇顺差分别达到999.3亿美元和887.6亿美元，单月顺差规模分列历史第1和第3位。值得一提的是，以离岸人民币领涨为标志，这段时间汇市情绪偏 高，也是助推人民币走势偏强，连破重要关口的一个重要因素。 中国人民银行发布此前发布的《2025年四季度货币政策执行报告》延续了"汇率基本稳定"的总基调，并在保持弹性、强化预期引导、防范超调风险基础上， 新增"发挥汇率调节宏观经济和国际收支自动稳定器功能"。 "短期来看，考虑到外部环境回稳态势有望延续，一季度我国出口还会保持较快增长，再加上当前汇市 ...

记者｜江佩霞 见习记者林芊蔚 编辑｜张楠 2月25日，在岸、离岸人民币兑美元汇率双双升破6.87。 截至发稿，离岸人民币对美元汇率报6.8655，盘中最高升至6.86179，较上一交易日上涨180点，创下34个月以来的新高。 人民币强势行情节后进一步提速。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，近期人民币连破重要关口，是内外部因素共振的结果。 王青分析认为，首先，外部环境改善是人民币走强的重要背景。2025年11月以来，中美经贸关系回稳，我国整体外部环境趋于缓和。 在岸人民币对美元汇率同样升破6.87关口，盘中最高升至6.8622，较前一交易日升值超200点。 | < W | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | USDCNY.IB | | | | 6.8669 | | 前收 | 开盘 | 6.8796 | | -0.0180 | 卖品 -0.26% | 6.8673 | 买入 | 6.8668 | | 最高 | 6.8809 | 今年来 -1.75% | 20日 | -1.34% | | 最低 | 6.8622 10日 | -1.00 ...

截至当日9时40分，在岸人民币对美元汇率报6.8765，日内升值0.07%；日内最高报6.8712，续创2023年 4月来新高。离岸人民币对美元汇率报6.8738，日内升值0.09%。 （文章来源：北京商报） 2月25日，人民币对美元中间价调升93个基点，报6.9321。前一交易日中间价报6.9414。 ...

北京商报讯（记者 董晗萱）2月25日，人民币对美元中间价调升93个基点，报6.9321。前一交易日中间 价报6.9414。 截至当日9时40分，在岸人民币对美元汇率报6.8765，日内升值0.07%；日内最高报6.8712，续创2023年 4月来新高。离岸人民币对美元汇率报6.8738，日内升值0.09%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the home appliance industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the nominal appreciation of the RMB is expected to have limited impact on export recovery and external sales profitability, as leading brands have strong pricing power, overseas production capacity, and effective foreign exchange hedging [8][11] - The report emphasizes that the home appliance sector is likely to benefit from increased foreign capital inflow due to RMB appreciation, with the sector's valuation and holdings at historical lows, indicating significant upside potential [7][8] Summary by Sections 1. Industry: Nominal Appreciation and Dollar Price Elasticity - Since Q2 2025, the RMB has appreciated approximately 5% due to the easing of trade tensions and economic recovery expectations, with the CFETS index remaining close to its 3-5 year average [11][12] - The report discusses the impact of exchange rates on export volume and pricing, noting that during appreciation phases, exporters may adjust dollar prices or lower RMB prices to mitigate the effects of appreciation [12][22] 2. Financial Statements: External Sales Profitability and Hedging - External sales gross margins have been under pressure, with historical data showing that external sales margins are generally weaker than domestic sales margins [4][6] - The report indicates that major companies have high foreign exchange hedging ratios, which effectively mitigate the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on their financials [4][6] 3. Capital: High Foreign Ownership Proportion - The report notes a strong correlation between RMB appreciation and net inflows of foreign capital, with the home appliance sector consistently attracting significant foreign investment [7][8] - The sector's Northbound trading and public fund holdings are at historical lows, suggesting ample room for upward movement [7] 4. Industry Perspective and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that under the expectation of moderate appreciation, the competitive edge of leading companies backed by domestic supply chain advantages and proactive overseas capacity expansion will remain intact [8] - Recommended stocks include high-quality white goods leaders such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric Appliances, and Hisense Home Appliances, as well as TV leader Hisense Visual and global leaders in robotic vacuum cleaners like Roborock and Ecovacs [8]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25% to 4065 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.33% [1] - The total market turnover was 2.16 trillion yuan, a decrease of 30.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with over 2700 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance - The mining and oil sectors saw gains, with stocks like Tongyuan Petroleum and Zhun Oil reaching their daily limit [1] - The fluorochemical sector also performed well, with Tianji Co. hitting the daily limit [1] - Lithium mining and battery sectors were active, with Enjie Co. reaching the daily limit [1] - Conversely, the liquor sector faced declines, with Huangtai Liquor hitting the daily limit down, and Moutai falling by 2.57% [1] - Other sectors such as commercial retail and tourism also saw declines, with Dalian Shengya dropping over 8% [1] Alibaba Concept Stocks - Alibaba concept stocks collectively surged, with Data Port hitting the daily limit and several other stocks like Borui Data and Lijun Thermal Energy rising over 5% [2] - The rise was attributed to the launch of a promotional event by Qianwen, which topped the Apple App Store free application chart [2] Precious Metals - International precious metal prices rebounded, with spot gold rising nearly 1% and silver increasing over 2% [4] - Analysts noted that the current upward trend in gold prices is driven by liquidity expectations and ongoing geopolitical conflicts providing safe-haven demand [5] - The outlook for the metal prices is optimistic, with potential for new highs due to a combination of demand recovery and rigid supply [5] Economic Outlook - Analysts predict a potential recovery in the economy over the next 6-12 months, which could boost market demand and support metal prices [5] - The macroeconomic outlook includes expectations for a "tight then loose" monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, a weaker dollar, and a strengthening of the RMB [6] - The stock market is anticipated to have upward potential, with liquidity being a significant driver of market changes [6]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a "tightening then loosening" monetary policy approach, with a potential for aggressive rate cuts in the second half of the year if Powell maintains a hawkish stance during his term [2][13] - The US dollar is anticipated to weaken further, especially as the dollar index has fallen below 97, driven by a loose monetary policy environment and increased global demand for safety [2][14] Group 2 - The RMB exchange rate is entering a mid-term appreciation channel, with a potential to break above 6.8, aligning with current export growth trends [3][19] - The appreciation of the RMB is seen as a rebalancing of external and internal demand, with policy shifts indicating a growing importance of domestic demand [4][21] Group 3 - Service consumption is expected to grow, with policy support shifting towards the service sector, reflecting a recovery in consumer sentiment post-pandemic [5][22] - CPI is projected to show stronger elasticity compared to PPI, driven by a potential recovery in pork prices and sticky core CPI, particularly in service inflation [6][27] Group 4 - The central bank is likely to adopt a cautious approach to domestic monetary policy easing, focusing on structural tools to provide low-cost funding to support specific sectors [8][29] - The stock market is expected to reach new highs due to ample liquidity and a rebound in profit growth, despite the current economic challenges [9][31] Group 5 - The technology sector is predicted to maintain its momentum, supported by liquidity and a favorable investment environment, particularly in AI companies [10][34] - Gold prices are expected to continue rising, bolstered by a weakening dollar and increased central bank purchases of gold [11][36]

免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下 本报告中的信息或所表达的意见不构成我公司实际的投资结果，也不构成任何对投资 人的投资建议。 本报告中的数据出处若未加特别说明，均来自Wind，彭博或博时基金宏观策略部。 本报告版权归博时基金管理有限公司所有。 国开ETF（159650）博时基金经理 吕瑞君 上周五（1月23日）受缴税走款因素影响，资金面有所收敛，隔夜资金价格升幅近10bp，当日央行净回 笼1117亿元。此外，当日央行还进行了9000亿元1年期MLF操作，本月有2000亿元MLF到期，净投放 7000亿元。本周一资金面延续边际收敛，临近月末，7天资金利率上行明显，当日央行净回笼78亿元。 本周二央行净投放，资金面边际改善，隔夜资金利率下行，当日央行净投放780亿元。本周三央行延续 净投放，资金面边际改善，7天资金利率回落，当日央行净投放1640亿元。临近月末，本周四7天资金边 际收敛，隔夜资金较为稳定，当日央行投放1438亿元。本周四（1月29日）相较于上周五，DR001下行 4bp收于1.36%，DR007上行10bp收于 1.59%。 海 ...

【中泰交运｜航空】航司业绩快评：盈利改善确认，春运旺季可期 业绩预告： # 海航控股，①全年归母/扣非归母净利润分别为18～22亿元/9～11亿元，同比扭亏为盈。 ②测算Q4归母/扣非归母净亏损分别为6.45～10.45亿元/16.02～18.02亿元。 # 南方航空，①全年归母/扣非归母净利润分别为8～10亿元/1.3～1.9亿元，同比扭亏为盈。 【中泰交运｜航空】航司业绩快评：盈利改善确认，春运旺季可期 业绩预告： # 海航控股，①全年归母/扣非归母净利润分别为18～22亿元/9～11亿元，同比扭亏为盈。 ②测算Q4归母/扣非归母净亏损分别为6.45～10.45亿元/16.02～18.02亿元。 # 南方航空，①全年归母/扣非归母净利润分别为8～10亿元/1.3～1.9亿元，同比扭亏为盈。 ②测算Q4归母/扣非归母净亏损分别为13.07～15.07亿元/12.33～12.93亿元。 # 中国东航，①全年归母/扣非归母净亏损分别为13～18亿元/27～33亿元，同比减亏。 # ①春运旺季即将来临。 ②测算Q4归母/扣非归母净亏损分别为34.03～39.03亿元/41.05～47.05亿元。 # 中国国航，① ...