Company News - Dalian Thermal Power plans to acquire Kanghui New Materials for 10.153 billion yuan, marking a shift to the new materials industry [4] - China Communications Construction Company intends to purchase 70% equity of Boda New Energy, expanding into the photovoltaic business [5] - Zongshen Power's subsidiary Meixin Yishen has been approved for listing on the Beijing Stock Exchange [5] - Airport Holdings has terminated the transfer of its wholly-owned subsidiary Tianrui Real Estate [5] - Saiteng Co. plans to repurchase company shares worth between 200 million to 400 million yuan [5] - Kingood Co. has received three notifications for designated supply of Avatar electric vehicles [5] - Andavil's subsidiary is expected to win a bid for a 255 million yuan airborne system project [5] - Guorui Technology's subsidiary is anticipated to win a bid for a 380 million yuan engineering signal system procurement project [5] Macro News - As of the end of August, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 286.93 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.6%, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month and 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year [1] - The total social financing stock was 368.61 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9% [1] - In August, the increment of social financing was 3.12 trillion yuan, which is 631.6 billion yuan more than the same month last year [1] - The increase in RMB loans was 1.36 trillion yuan, which is 868 billion yuan more than the same month last year [1] - The China SME Development Index for August was 89.4, rising 0.1 points from July and marking the third consecutive month of increase [3]

会议指出，在中国人民银行、国家外汇局等监管部门和外汇市场指导委员会的指导下，在外汇市场自律 机制成员的共同努力下，近年来我国外汇市场取得长足发展，金融机构和企业等市场参与者应对外部冲 击的能力显著提升。未来一段时期，我国经济回稳向好的基本面不会改变，国际收支总体平衡的格局不 会改变，外汇市场韧性增强的态势不会改变，人民币汇率完全有条件保持基本稳定。 会议强调，要坚定不移保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。中国人民银行、国家外汇局将继 续综合施策，稳定预期，增强外汇市场韧性，加强外汇市场管理，坚决对市场顺周期行为进行纠偏，坚 决对扰乱市场秩序行为进行处置，坚决防范汇率超调风险。外汇市场指导委员会将加强对外汇市场自律 机制的指导，进一步强化行业自律管理，指导外汇市场成员严格落实自律规范，对扰乱市场秩序、恶意 误导公众等违反自律规范的行为及时采取措施。外汇市场自律机制成员要坚持以服务实体经济为首要任 务，努力为企业和居民提供稳定的汇率环境。要坚持汇率风险中性，完善服务企业汇率风险管理的长效 机制。要自觉遵守自律规范，不得扰乱市场秩序，不得推波助澜加剧顺周期行为，共同维护外汇市场有 序规范运行。 （责任编辑：蔡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes that China does not seek to gain international competitive advantages through currency devaluation, maintaining a clear and consistent stance on exchange rate policy, which prioritizes market determination and aims to keep the RMB stable at a reasonable equilibrium level [1][2]. Economic Stability - Domestic economy shows signs of recovery, with a GDP growth of 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, indicating a positive start to the year [1]. - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China has made important deployments for economic work, suggesting a continuation of high-quality economic development [1]. Monetary Policy Expectations - There is a growing market expectation that the Federal Reserve will resume interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, which may improve the alignment of monetary policy cycles between China and the U.S. and narrow the interest rate differential [1]. Balance of Payments - The current account surplus is projected to be 2.2% of GDP in 2024, indicating a balance within a reasonable range [2]. - China's financial market is operating stably, with steady progress in opening up, making RMB assets attractive, and facilitating orderly cross-border capital flows, with a net inflow of approximately $100 billion in the first five months of the year [2]. Foreign Exchange Market Development - Significant progress has been made in the development of the foreign exchange market, with more mature market participants and rational trading behaviors, enhancing market resilience [2]. - The hedging ratio for enterprises and the proportion of RMB cross-border receipts in goods trade have both increased to around 30%, indicating improved capacity for enterprises to respond to external shocks [2].

Group 1 - The central bank's monetary policy is expected to maintain a moderately accommodative tone in the second half of the year despite a shift in language regarding rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments [1][2] - The foundation for economic recovery in China is still fragile, with uncertainties in external demand for the third quarter and expectations of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][2] - The central bank aims to enhance domestic demand, stabilize social expectations, and invigorate market activity to support the overall economic and social development goals for the year [1] Group 2 - China is not seeking to gain international competitive advantage through currency depreciation, reflecting the country's confidence and responsibility [2] - The removal of certain phrases regarding market behavior and the weakening of statements on preventing excessive currency fluctuations indicate a reduced risk of RMB depreciation [2] - The RMB/USD exchange rate is expected to trend towards stability and gradual appreciation in the future [2]

Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy in response to a complex external environment and weakening global growth [2][3] - A package of 10 monetary policy measures was announced in May, focusing on maintaining liquidity, adjusting interest rates, and supporting key sectors such as consumption and technology innovation [2][3] Credit Structure - The credit structure has shown continuous optimization, with a total loan balance of RMB 268.56 trillion as of June, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [4] - New loans are primarily directed towards manufacturing and infrastructure, with manufacturing medium- and long-term loans increasing by 8.7% and infrastructure loans by 7.4% [4] Financial Support Initiatives - The PBOC has established a RMB 500 billion re-lending facility to support consumption and elderly care, aiming to enhance the quality of supply in service sectors [5] - The financial "Five Major Articles" initiative has seen a loan balance of RMB 103.3 trillion, growing by 14% year-on-year, with significant increases in green, inclusive, and digital loans [4][5] Exchange Rate Policy - The PBOC maintains a clear stance on exchange rate policy, emphasizing that it does not seek competitive advantage through currency depreciation [8][9] - As of June, the foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 3.32 trillion, with the RMB/USD exchange rate at 7.1586, reflecting a stable currency environment [9]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to continuing a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support economic growth and stabilize market expectations [2][5]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - Since 2020, the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) have decreased by 115 and 130 basis points respectively, reflecting a supportive monetary policy environment [3]. - In the first half of 2025, the weighted average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was approximately 3.3%, down about 45 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for personal housing loans was about 3.1%, down 60 basis points [4]. - The PBOC has implemented a comprehensive package of 10 monetary policy measures announced on May 7, which has positively impacted market confidence and expectations [6][7]. Group 2: Financing and Debt Market - The total loan balance in the "Five Major Areas" of finance reached 103.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14% [8]. - In the first half of 2025, the Chinese bond market issued various bonds totaling 44.3 trillion yuan, a 16% increase year-on-year, with net bond financing accounting for 38.6% of the total social financing increment [9]. - The issuance of technology innovation bonds has reached approximately 600 billion yuan, supporting the development of emerging industries [14]. Group 3: Consumer and Economic Support - The PBOC has established a 500 billion yuan re-loan facility for service consumption and elderly care to enhance supply in high-demand service sectors [11]. - Structural monetary policy tools are being utilized to support key areas such as technological innovation and consumption, aiming to facilitate economic transformation and upgrading [16]. Group 4: Currency Stability - The RMB exchange rate remains stable amid fluctuations, supported by a solid domestic economic foundation [12]. - The PBOC does not seek to gain international competitive advantage through currency depreciation and maintains a clear stance on exchange rate policy [13].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes that China does not seek to gain international competitive advantages through currency depreciation, maintaining a clear and consistent stance on its exchange rate policy [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Exchange Rate Policy - The PBOC will continue to uphold the decisive role of the market in the formation of exchange rates, ensuring exchange rate flexibility [1] - The central bank aims to strengthen expectations guidance to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate [1] - The goal is to keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has shown resilience against the US dollar, with a stable exchange rate and a positive outlook for the second half of the year, supported by domestic economic recovery and effective macro policies [1][3]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Performance - As of July 4, the offshore yuan to US dollar exchange rate was 7.1643, up 58 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - In the first half of the year, the onshore yuan appreciated by 1.82% and the offshore yuan by 2.45% against the US dollar [1]. - The US dollar index fell by 10.79% during the same period, while the yuan's central parity rate increased by 298 basis points [1]. Group 2: Factors Supporting Yuan Strength - The weakening US dollar index is a significant external factor contributing to the yuan's strength, alongside domestic economic recovery and proactive macro policies [1]. - Analysts believe that the market's lack of confidence in the US dollar and enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments in China provide strong support for the yuan [3]. - The narrowing gap between onshore, offshore spot rates, and the central parity rate suggests a potential convergence of these rates [1][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Market expectations indicate that the yuan may continue to appreciate moderately against the US dollar in the second half of the year [3]. - Continuous implementation of growth-stabilizing policies is seen as a key factor in maintaining exchange rate stability [3]. - The maturity of the foreign exchange market in China, along with improved risk management services for enterprises, enhances the ability to cope with exchange rate fluctuations [3].

Group 1 - The report from the Bank of China Research Institute indicates that the pressure for RMB depreciation has significantly eased, and the exchange rate is expected to remain stable at a reasonable equilibrium level in the second half of 2025 [1] - In the first half of 2025, the RMB faced significant depreciation pressure due to factors such as the US "reciprocal tariff" policy, but after high-level economic talks between China and the US, the RMB appreciated against the USD [1] - As of June 25, the RMB's central parity, onshore spot, and offshore spot exchange rates have converged around 7.17, indicating a reduction in the divergence between onshore and offshore rates [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that the capital market recovery has accelerated the inflow of foreign capital, which positively contributes to the stability of the RMB exchange rate [2] - Since October of the previous year, the trading volume of the Stock Connect (where Hong Kong or foreign capital purchases A-shares) has significantly exceeded previous levels, and this trend is expected to continue [2] - The anticipated inflow of foreign capital is expected to support the balance of international payments and the stability of the exchange rate [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate shows resilience and low volatility, with both onshore and offshore rates demonstrating a consistent upward trend against the US dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Onshore and Offshore RMB Performance - On June 30, the onshore RMB closed at 7.1656 against the US dollar, marking a rise of 34 basis points from the previous trading day and reaching the highest level since November 8, 2024 [1]. - In June, the onshore RMB appreciated by 0.41%, while in the second quarter, it cumulatively appreciated by 1.2%, and for the first half of the year, the overall appreciation was 1.86% [1]. - The offshore RMB also showed positive trends, with the exchange rate surpassing 7.16 on June 26, peaking at 7.1524, the highest since mid-November of the previous year [1]. Group 2: External Factors Influencing RMB - The US dollar index experienced a pullback during this period, with a decline of nearly 0.7% on June 26, providing a favorable external environment for the RMB [1]. - Year-to-date, the RMB's midpoint against the US dollar has appreciated by 0.37%, while the onshore spot rate has appreciated by nearly 1.8% [1]. Group 3: Market Stability and Expectations - The RMB exchange rate has exhibited characteristics of "low volatility and resilience," with the onshore and offshore rate differentials narrowing, indicating a stable "three-price unity" [2]. - The stability of the RMB reflects a growing consensus among market participants regarding exchange rate expectations, supported by the stability of China's economic fundamentals [2]. - The recent changes in the exchange rate market occurred amidst increased volatility in global financial markets, influenced by shifts in US Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations [2].