Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, highlighting the stability of the RMB and the positive outlook for cross-border RMB transactions due to ongoing economic cooperation initiatives. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations - As of May 5, the offshore RMB broke the 7.20 mark against the US dollar for the first time since November of the previous year, with an intraday increase of over 130 points [1] - The New Taiwan dollar also saw significant appreciation, with the USD/TWD exchange rate dropping below 30, marking a 3.95% decline, the highest since February 8, 2023 [3] - The FTSE China A50 index futures rose by 0.57%, while the US dollar index fell to 99.66 [5] Group 2: Stability of RMB Exchange Rate - According to Guo Tao, Chief Economist at Zhongyin Securities, the RMB exchange rate has a solid foundation for stability, supported by domestic economic recovery and various positive factors [8] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has emphasized its commitment to maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, with a robust foreign exchange reserve of $3 trillion enhancing its ability to stabilize the currency [8][9] - The PBOC has taken multiple measures to ensure exchange rate stability, including addressing market behaviors that disrupt order and preventing excessive fluctuations [13] Group 3: Cross-Border RMB Business Growth - The cross-border RMB business has seen significant growth, with transactions between China and Malaysia reaching 1,020 billion RMB in Q1, a 27% year-on-year increase, and transactions with Cambodia growing by 45% [15] - The increase in cross-border RMB usage reflects deeper monetary sovereignty and industrial trust between China and its trade partners [15][16] - The RMB is forming a new model of trade dominance within the RCEP framework, enhancing trade efficiency and local asset reserve attributes in the Asia-Pacific region [16]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the resilience of China's foreign exchange market and plans to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies to support employment and growth amid recent fluctuations in the US Treasury market [1][2]. Foreign Exchange Market - The impact of fluctuations in a single market or asset on China's foreign exchange reserves is generally limited, as the reserves are diversified and managed with safety, liquidity, and value preservation in mind [1]. - China's foreign exchange reserves remain stable at over $3.2 trillion, supported by a balanced international payment situation and a resilient foreign exchange market [2]. Monetary Policy - The PBOC plans to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential adjustments to reserve requirement ratios and interest rates based on domestic and international economic conditions [3]. - The central bank aims to enhance financial support for key sectors such as technology innovation, green finance, and inclusive finance, while ensuring reasonable growth in money and credit [3]. Employment and Economic Growth - The PBOC will intensify support for employment through policies like entrepreneurship guarantee loans, particularly targeting groups such as returning migrant workers and recent graduates [4]. - Financial institutions will be guided to continue lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that are heavily reliant on foreign trade and facing temporary difficulties [4]. Support for Private Enterprises - The PBOC is committed to enhancing financial services for private enterprises, ensuring a favorable monetary environment through adequate liquidity and targeted financial support measures [5]. - The central bank will broaden financing channels for private enterprises, including expanding bond financing and improving access to foreign capital [6]. Data Insights - As of March 2025, the loan balance for privately held enterprises is approximately 45 trillion yuan, with an increase of 2.4 trillion yuan in the first three months of the year [6]. - The weighted average interest rate for new loans to privately held enterprises in March was about 3.41%, a decrease of 58 basis points compared to the same period last year [6].

邹澜表示，将根据国内外经济形势和金融市场运行情况，适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕，发挥好货币 政策工具总量和结构双重功能，创设新的结构性货币政策工具，围绕稳就业、稳增长的重点领域精准发 力，做好金融支持。还在研究丰富政策工具箱，将适时推出增量政策，助力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、 稳预期。 来源： 央视新闻客户端 关注" 新华网财经 "视频号 更多财经资讯等你来看 往期推荐 三只松鼠，赴港上市！ 重要数据发布！由降转增 中国人民银行副行长邹澜4月28日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，下一阶段， 中国人民银行将继续实施好 适度宽松的货币政策 ，加力支持实体经济，同时坚持以市场供求为基础，参考一揽子货币进行调节、 有管理的浮动汇率制度，坚持市场在汇率形成中的决定性作用，增强外汇市场韧性、稳定市场预期、加 强市场管理，坚决对市场顺周期行为进行纠偏，坚决对扰乱市场秩序行为进行处置，坚决防范汇率超调 风险， 保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定 。 央行：一季度个人住房贷款增约2200亿元 中国人民银行副行长邹澜表示，今年一季度末，个人住房贷款余额38万亿，增加约2200亿元，与去年一 季度相比同比多增超过2000亿元。 发挥 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese economy is expected to continue its recovery and high-quality development, which will support the stability of the RMB exchange rate despite external uncertainties [1][2] - The economic foundation of China is solid, with recent policy measures from the Central Political Bureau aimed at enhancing economic performance [1] - The balance of international payments is stable, with foreign trade enterprises diversifying markets and responding quickly to global demand [1] Group 2 - The foreign exchange market shows resilience, with more mature market participants and rational trading behaviors, leading to an increase in the use of foreign exchange derivatives for hedging [1] - The scale of foreign exchange reserves remains stable, with reserves maintaining above 3.2 trillion USD in recent months [1] - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support the real economy while managing the exchange rate based on market supply and demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support the real economy while maintaining a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and a basket of currencies [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The PBOC aims to enhance support for the real economy through appropriate monetary policy measures [1] - The central bank emphasizes the importance of market supply and demand in determining exchange rates [1] Group 2: Exchange Rate Management - The PBOC will reference a basket of currencies for exchange rate adjustments, ensuring a managed floating exchange rate system [1] - The central bank intends to strengthen the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilize market expectations [1] Group 3: Market Regulation - The PBOC will take measures to correct pro-cyclical market behaviors and address actions that disrupt market order [1] - There is a commitment to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate and maintain the stability of the RMB at a reasonable and balanced level [1]

Macro Dynamics - The China Passenger Car Association indicates that the recent tariff increases will further accelerate the domestic production of automotive chips, with the current domestic chip localization rate at approximately 20% [2] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reports that the RMB exchange rate is fluctuating within a stable range, with the onshore RMB to USD exchange rate at 7.288 as of April 21, reflecting a 0.1% appreciation since the end of 2024 [3] - Shanghai's total import and export value with ASEAN reached 143.52 billion yuan in the first quarter, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [4] Financial Institutions - China Bank will adjust the purchase conditions for its accumulation gold products starting April 23, 2025, raising the minimum purchase amount from 750 yuan to 850 yuan [7] - The China Development Bank issued 369.1 billion yuan in infrastructure loans in the first quarter, with the proportion of infrastructure loans steadily increasing [8] - CITIC Bank's president appointment has been approved by the National Financial Regulatory Administration [9] - Shanghai Bank's chairman Jin Yu resigned due to age reasons, ceasing to hold any positions within the company [10] Market Data - On April 22, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.25%, with significant trading activity in high-position stocks, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.36% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.82% [11] - As of April 21, the financing balance on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 916.758 billion yuan, an increase of 3.113 billion yuan from the previous trading day [12] Company Dynamics - ZTE Corporation reported a 10.5% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first quarter, with revenue of 32.968 billion yuan, a 7.82% increase [13] - Hunan Gold announced a 104.63% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first quarter, with revenue of 13.121 billion yuan, up 67.83% [16] - Huaron Holdings corrected its 2024 annual performance forecast, indicating a potential delisting risk due to expected losses [17]

作 者丨林秋彤 编 辑丨肖嘉 图 源丨摄图网 近期，受美国"对等关税"政策影响，全球金融市场震荡，不确定性显著增强。 2 1世纪经济报道记者注意到，在岸和离岸人民币对美元汇率先是短线走低，释放贬值压力后 转而回调，目前均收复7 . 3元关口。截至记者发稿，在岸人民币对美元报7 . 2 9 2 6元，离岸人民 币对美元报7 . 2 8 1 3元。 与 此 同 时 ， 美 元 指 数 持 续 承 压 。 Wi n d 数 据 显 示 ， 4 月 11 日 美 元 指 数 已 跌 破 1 0 0 ， 日 内 跌 幅 达 1 . 1 4％，最新报9 9 . 7 9 0 6。而此前自2 0 2 4年11月6日起，美元指数保持在1 0 5以上的高位已持 续了近半年。 | < w | 美元指数 ರ | | --- | --- | | USDX.FX | | | 99.7690 前收 | | | -1.1682 -1.16% 卖出 | 99.7690 买入 99.7690 | | 最高 今年来 | -8.03% 20 日 -3.82% | | 最低 99.0086 | 10 日 | | 时间 23:54 涨跌 | -1.05 ...

Policy Overview - The current market's core conflict has shifted to the struggle between economic downturn and policy countermeasures, with a focus on stabilizing the stock market as a macroeconomic indicator[3] - The political bureau meeting at the end of April is expected to set the tone for new reserve policies[3] Currency Stability - The exchange rate's bottom line is expected to remain unbroken, serving as a stabilizing anchor for the market, with a critical level of 7.35 (USD/CNY) to be defended[3][4] - A depreciation of the RMB is seen as more harmful than beneficial, potentially exacerbating capital outflow risks[3] Monetary Policy Adjustments - A reduction in reserve requirements (RRR) is anticipated to occur before interest rate cuts, with structural monetary policy tools being prioritized[5] - The focus on structural monetary policy is to support low-cost funding in key consumption areas while maintaining exchange rate stability[5] Consumption Focus - Increasing service consumption is identified as a priority policy option, as traditional investment potential is diminishing[5] - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to better guide market expectations compared to traditional investment stimuli[5] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policies falling short of expectations, unexpected changes in the domestic economic situation, fluctuations in exports, and unforeseen U.S. trade policies[5]

文/曹萌 3月6日，美元指数逼近104关口，点位创2024年11月以来新低，而自本周起， 美元指数已连续三 日大幅下跌，跌幅超过3%。反观离岸人民币（USD/CNH），升值不足1%。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，当前汇市存在人民币汇率波动幅度显著低于美元波动幅度的一般 模式，无论是在升值还是在贬值过程中。这会带动CFETS等三大一篮子人民币汇率指数保持在稳中 偏强状态，进而体现监管层"保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定"的控制目标。 01 下跌的不止美元 近日，中美资本市场发生了乾坤大挪移，曾在中国资本市场上演的股债汇三杀戏码，如今来到了具有 200多年历史的美国资本市场。 具体来看，美元指数自3月3日起，已连续三日大幅下行，点位从107上方逼近104，跌幅超过3%。 而汇率走势与宏观经济情况息息相关，数据显示，近期美国制造业活动陷入停滞，通胀压力持续升 温，1月消费者支出环比下降0.2%，贸易赤字扩大至982亿美元，初请失业金人数突破23万大关。 而亚特兰大联储模型显示，美国一季度GDP或萎缩2.825%，创2019年以来最差表现。 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪表示，近期美元指数大幅下跌与多项 ...

坚持市场在汇率形成中的决定性作用，保持汇率弹性。同时，强化预期引导，坚决防范汇率超调 风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定。 同时，综合运用公开市场操作、中期借贷便利、再贷款再贴现、政策利率等货币政策工具， 保持市场流动性的充裕，降低银行负债成本，持续推动社会综合融资成本下降，使社会融资 规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 3月6日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在十四届全国人大三次会议经济主题记者会上表示， 今 年，我们将根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，择机降准降息。 目前金融机构 存款准备金率平均为6.6%，还有下行空间，中央银行向商业银行提供的结构性货币政策工 具资金利率也有下行空间。 来源：第一财经 ...