Group 1 - Investment in high-tech industries has been surpassed by overall manufacturing investment for the first time, indicating a shift in trends after three years of low returns on investments [1][3][4] - Many sectors, including new energy and semiconductors, are showing signs of overcapacity, with rapid technological iterations leading to outdated "new" technologies [3][4] - Private investments focused on financial returns have lagged behind state-owned enterprises, highlighting a disparity in investment strategies [4] Group 2 - Corporate profits are finally showing signs of recovery, with many sectors experiencing profit rebounds, although the automotive industry continues to struggle [5][9] - The gap between fixed asset investment in manufacturing and overall profits is narrowing, suggesting a potential shift towards prioritizing shareholder returns [9][11] - Regulatory pressures in the automotive sector and tightening capital constraints are contributing to a more sustainable investment environment [11] Group 3 - The growth rate of high-tech service industries remains strong, outperforming the manufacturing sector [14] - Consumer spending on services is lagging behind goods due to supply constraints and a lack of quality offerings, impacting overall consumption patterns [17][19] - New consumption trends, particularly those with emotional and differentiated attributes, are gaining traction, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [21]

Core Points - The productivity of American workers declined significantly in the first quarter, with a final value decrease of 1.5%, which is worse than the initial estimate of 0.8% [1] - This marks the first decline since the second quarter of 2022, indicating potential challenges for businesses [1] - Labor costs surged by 6.6% in the first quarter, with a year-over-year increase of 1.9%, surpassing the previously reported 1.3% [1] Economic Impact - Businesses are facing rising costs due to tariffs on imported goods, which may further strain profitability [1] - Economic uncertainty is expected to hinder consumer and business spending, leading to cautious financial guidance from companies in sectors such as airlines, retail, and automotive manufacturing for 2025 [1] - Overall, the decline in productivity and the rise in labor costs could pressure corporate profits moving forward [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stated that Japanese corporate profits remain at a high level and that corporate activities will not be overly constrained by downward pressures from tariffs [1] Group 1 - Japanese corporate profits are currently strong, indicating resilience in the business environment [1] - The impact of tariffs on corporate activities is expected to be limited, suggesting a stable outlook for businesses [1]

日本央行行长植田和男：企业或能吸收关税带来的上升成本，但这将恶化企业利润，并可能对工资和资 本支出前景产生负面影响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor, Philip Lowe, indicated that corporate profits are currently being impacted by various economic factors [1] Group 1: Economic Impact on Corporate Profits - Corporate profits are facing pressure due to rising costs and changing economic conditions [1] - The RBA is closely monitoring the situation as it may influence future monetary policy decisions [1] - Lowe emphasized the importance of understanding the broader economic context in which businesses operate [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report offers short - term and medium - term outlooks for various commodities. For example, gold is expected to see a risk preference rebound, copper's price is supported by strong fundamentals, while industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon are in a weak position due to downstream production cuts and falling spot prices respectively [2][12][32][33]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Risk preference rebounds, with a trend strength of 0. Its prices showed declines in the previous trading session, and ETF holdings slightly increased [2][6][9]. - Silver: Stabilizes and rebounds, with a trend strength of 0. There were drops in prices and a decrease in SLV ETF holdings [2][6][9]. Base Metals - Copper: Strong fundamentals support the price, with a trend strength of 0. There were changes in prices, trading volumes, and inventories, and some countries' production data showed growth [2][12][14]. - Aluminum: Ranges within an interval, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina is expected to decline slightly. Ore prices are under downward pressure due to production cuts and other factors [2][15][17]. - Zinc: Strong current situation but weak expectations, with a trend strength of 0. There were price fluctuations, and a major producer's profit increased due to production and price rises [2][18][19]. - Lead: Price is under pressure as restocking weakens, with a trend strength of - 1. There were changes in prices, trading volumes, and inventories [2][21][22]. - Nickel: Upside and downside spaces converge, and the price may fluctuate narrowly, with a trend strength of 0. Indonesian production capacity is recovering, and resource tax policies are adjusted [2][24][26]. - Stainless steel: Spot prices decline to repair the basis, with a trend strength of 0. Cost and negative feedback are in a game on the disk [2][25]. - Tin: Shows a slight repair, with a trend strength of 0. There were price increases in the spot market and changes in trading volumes and inventories [2][28][31]. Energy and Chemicals - Industrial silicon: Downstream production cuts lead to a weak performance on the disk, with a trend strength of - 1. There were price drops and changes in inventories and production profits [32][33][35]. - Polycrystalline silicon: Spot prices fall, and the disk is weak, with a trend strength of - 1. There were price declines and changes in inventories and production profits [32][33][35]. - Carbonate lithium: Weak demand and falling costs lead to a continued weak operation, with a trend strength of 0. There were price drops in the spot market and changes in contract prices and trading volumes [36][37][38]. - Iron ore: Expectations are volatile, and the price fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0. There were price changes and some macro - economic data were released [39][40]. - Rebar: The expectation of production restrictions rises, and there is a short - term rebound, with a trend strength of 1. There were price changes and some production and inventory data were updated [42][43][44]. - Hot - rolled coil: Similar to rebar, with a trend strength of 1. There were price changes and some production and inventory data were updated [42][43][44]. - Ferrosilicon: Oscillates at a low level, with a trend strength of 0. There were price changes and some industry information was reported [47][50][51]. - Silicomanganese: Oscillates at a low level, with a trend strength of 0. There were price changes and some industry information was reported [47][50][51]. - Coke: Affected by production restriction news, it fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0. There were price changes and some price and position information was provided [52][53][54]. - Coking coal: Similar to coke, with a trend strength of 0. There were price changes and some price and position information was provided [52][53][54]. - Steam coal: Limited rigid demand, with a weak and oscillating trend, with a trend strength of 0. There were price changes and some position information was provided [56][58][59]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a trend strength of 0. The spot market price is stable with some regional differences [60][61]. - p - Xylene: In a de - stocking pattern, it is strong in the short term but weak in the medium term. The suggestion is to go long on PX and short on SC, with a trend strength of 0 [63][66][67]. - PTA: The basis strengthens significantly, and it is not advisable to chase the monthly spread. It is recommended to go long on PTA and short on MEG, with a trend strength of 0 [63][66][67]. - MEG: The strategy is to go long on PTA and short on MEG, and not to chase the monthly spread, with a trend strength of 0 [63][66][67]. - Rubber: Oscillates, with a trend strength of 0. There were price changes and some industry news was reported [68][69][71]. Other Commodities - LPG: The center of gravity of civil gas declines, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - PVC: Oscillates weakly, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Fuel oil: Weakens slightly at night, and short - term fluctuations narrow, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Mainly oscillates, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market rebounds slightly, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Container shipping index (European line): The near - month contract is under pressure, and a short - position on the 10 - 12 spread can be lightly held, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Staple fiber: Rebounds following raw materials in the short term, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Bottle chips: Rebounds following raw materials in the short term, and it is advisable to short the processing fee on rallies, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Palm oil: The driving force for price increase is questionable, and it is treated as oscillating for now, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Soybean oil: The sentiment in the spot market improves, and there may be a correction at a high level, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Soybean meal: Concerns in the spot market ease, and the futures price falls, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Soybean: Affected by the spot price fluctuation of soybean meal, it follows the decline, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Corn: Oscillates strongly, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Sugar: Ranges within an interval, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Cotton: Demand restricts the rebound momentum of Zhengzhou cotton futures, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Eggs: Oscillates weakly in the spot market, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Live pigs: A phased de - stocking may start, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the purchase by oil mills, with a trend strength not provided [4].

美国企业能在多大程度上缓冲关税冲击仍然悬而未决 金十数据4月22日讯，由于利润率接近创纪录水平，美国企业有空间消化高关税带来的成本，利润将决 定企业能在多大程度上缓冲关税打击，最终将决定2025年的通胀有多高。根据最新的政府数据，去年第 四季度的税后利润增长是两年多来最大的。机构预计，即将发布的财报将显示，在特朗普政府对进口商 品征收巨额关税之前的2025年前三个月，盈利能力开始恶化。随着消费者在应对多年的高通胀后显示出 疲态，且有迹象显示衰退风险上升，企业能在多大程度上转嫁成本上升仍是一个悬而未决的问题。 ...