·美媒称哈西特"领跑"美联储主席候选人 ·美联储"褐皮书"显示美国消费支出进一步下滑 ·新西兰联储将基准利率下调25个基点至2.25% ·欧洲央行：欧元区金融稳定脆弱性仍处于高位 ·韩国央行保持利率不变 【全球央行动态】 ·美国彭博新闻社援引知情人士说法报道，在美国总统特朗普及其顾问和盟友眼中，白宫国家经济委员 会主任凯文·哈西特是美联储下任主席头号候选人。其中一些知情人士称，哈西特被视为能将特朗普所 主张降息政策带入美联储的人。美国预测市场平台Kalshi显示，特朗普有72%的几率提名哈西特出任下 一任美联储主席。 ·美联储经济状况褐皮书显示，十二个联邦储备区中的大多数报告显示，经济活动与上一份报告相比变 化不大，但有两个区报告略有下降，一个区报告略有增长。虽然高端零售支出依然保持韧性，但美国总 体消费支出进一步下降。一些零售商指出，政府"停摆"对消费者购买力产生了负面影响。此外，制造业 和零售业出现广泛成本上涨压力，反映出关税引起的成本增加。展望未来，联邦储备区所联系的企业大 多预期成本上涨压力会持续。 ·美联储官员发言一览： 美联储理事沃勒表示，疲软的劳动力市场数据支持12月降息。他警告称，会后密集发布 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent data indicates that foreign capital is significantly reducing its holdings in Chinese bonds, with a notable decline attributed to rising U.S. Treasury yields and currency fluctuations, which may impact China's financial market [1][3][4]. Group 1: Foreign Capital Reduction - As of October 2025, foreign institutions held 29,765 billion yuan in Chinese bonds, a decrease of 2,843 billion yuan or 8.7% since the beginning of the year, marking the longest net outflow in five years [1]. - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds reached 4.8%, compared to approximately 2.6% for Chinese bonds, creating a 2.2 percentage point yield advantage that attracts international capital [1][3]. - Approximately 62% of surveyed international investors indicated that currency fluctuations are a primary factor in their decision to adjust their holdings in Chinese bonds [3][4]. Group 2: Global Monetary Policy and Economic Factors - The divergence in monetary policy, with the U.S. maintaining a stringent stance while China has implemented three interest rate cuts in 2025, has widened the interest rate differential, further encouraging capital flow to the U.S. [4]. - China's GDP growth slowed to 4.6% year-on-year in Q3 2025, which, while still higher than many global economies, has led to cautious sentiment among foreign investors regarding Chinese bonds [4]. Group 3: Impact on Financial Markets - Foreign holdings of Chinese bonds accounted for approximately 2.1% of the total bond market as of October 2025, down from a peak of 3.5% in 2023, suggesting that while the outflow has some impact, it is unlikely to cause severe disruption [6]. - The outflow of capital may exert some pressure on the renminbi, but China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.24 trillion as of September 2025, providing a solid foundation to manage currency fluctuations [6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The internationalization of China's bond market is increasing, with Chinese bonds included in major international indices, which may provide a more stable source of foreign investment in the long run [7]. - A survey of 50 major asset management firms revealed that about 67% believe the proportion of Chinese bonds in their global asset allocation will increase over the next five years [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements by U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin supporting a 50 basis point rate cut and predicting a total cut of 150-175 basis points for the year indicate an urgent debt crisis in the U.S., which is a rare occurrence as Treasury Secretaries typically avoid discussing Federal Reserve policies to maintain its independence [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Implications - The U.S. faces a staggering $37 trillion in national debt, with annual interest payments reaching $1.2 trillion, which is consuming the federal budget. A 300 basis point rate cut could save nearly $1 trillion annually for the White House, potentially funding several of Trump's policy commitments [3]. - The internal division within the Federal Reserve is unprecedented, with Vice Chair Bowman shifting to support a rate cut cycle, while Trump's nominee Waller publicly questions Powell's leadership, indicating political interference [3][5]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Trump's actions to potentially replace Federal Reserve leadership, including nominating candidates who advocate for presidential control over Fed officials, threaten the independence established since the Fed's inception in 1913, raising concerns in global markets [5][7]. - If Powell is forced to resign, the yield spread on U.S. Treasuries could widen by 200 basis points, leading to significant volatility in global financial markets, with Deutsche Bank simulations predicting a more severe impact than Nixon's interventions in the 1970s [7]. Group 3: Inflation and Global Currency Trends - U.S. inflation is facing new challenges, with the core CPI rising to 3.1%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target, and 90% of U.S. importers planning to raise prices in the next three months, further exacerbating inflationary pressures [9]. - The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating globally, with countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia moving towards alternative currencies for trade, while central banks are increasing gold reserves, indicating a shift in the international financial landscape [11]. Group 4: Global Financial Order - The ongoing struggle between Trump and the Federal Reserve not only impacts the U.S. economy but also has profound implications for the global financial order, as the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency relies on the Fed's independence and the stability of the U.S. financial system [13]. - Continued political interference could hasten the decline of dollar hegemony, leading to significant changes in the global monetary system, presenting both challenges and opportunities for global investors [13].

Central Banks' Monetary Policy Divergence - The week marked a "super central bank week" with the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of England announcing their interest rate decisions amidst rising tensions in the Middle East and varying inflation pressures [2][3][4]. Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% despite a revised zero growth in Q1 GDP and high inflation, particularly with rice prices doubling over the year [2]. - The focus is on potential adjustments to its bond purchasing plan, possibly slowing the planned quarterly reduction from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen, with a hint that any rate hike may be postponed until Q1 2026 [3]. Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is likely to keep rates unchanged, with a core CPI of 2.8% and weak non-farm payroll data showing an increase of only 139,000 jobs [3]. - Market attention is on the dot plot for any signals of potential rate cuts, with Citigroup predicting a total of 75 basis points in cuts later this year [3]. Swiss National Bank - The Swiss National Bank faces a critical decision, with a 69% probability of a 25 basis point cut to 0% or even returning to a negative rate of -0.25% due to a negative CPI of -0.1% and an 11% appreciation of the Swiss franc [4]. - Such a move could increase volatility in the euro-Swiss franc exchange rate and raise concerns for pension funds regarding liquidity management [4]. Bank of England - The Bank of England is expected to maintain its rate at 4.25%, but deteriorating labor market conditions and a slowdown in wage growth may set the stage for potential rate cuts in August or November [4]. - Current rates are still considered in a "tightening zone," providing ample room for policy shifts, which may put short-term pressure on the British pound [4]. Market Reactions - The escalation of the Middle East conflict, particularly Iran's threats to block the Strait of Hormuz, combined with central bank policies, has heightened market volatility [5]. - U.S. stock indices fell sharply, with the VIX fear index surging by 22% and oil prices spiking by 12% in a single day [5]. - A hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve could strengthen the dollar, further suppressing capital flows to emerging markets, while dovish signals from Switzerland and the UK could provide temporary relief for risk assets [5].

Core Viewpoint - China's economic data for April shows stable growth despite a complex external environment, with significant contributions from domestic demand and overall employment stability [1][4]. Economic Performance - In April, China's industrial added value increased by 6.1% year-on-year, while the service production index grew by 6.0% and retail sales of consumer goods rose by 5.1% [1]. - The urban surveyed unemployment rate decreased to 5.1%, indicating a stable employment situation [1]. - Fixed asset investment in China grew by 4.0% year-on-year from January to April, and total goods import and export value increased by 2.4%, reflecting resilience in foreign trade [3]. Policy Impact - The combination of macroeconomic policies in April has led to sustained industrial production growth, particularly in equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors [3]. - The service sector has shown stable growth due to policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, with digital transformation and increased travel boosting information and business services [3]. - The effects of the "old-for-new" consumption policy continue to support stable market sales, particularly in basic living goods and some upgraded products [3]. Global Monetary Policy Trends - The Federal Reserve has indicated a reluctance to lower interest rates, with Chairman Powell noting the challenges posed by potential supply shocks and unstable inflation [3]. - The European Central Bank is considering further rate cuts, while the Bank of Mexico has reduced its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 8.5% [3]. - The divergence in global monetary policies is expected to have significant implications for financial markets [4].