Core Insights - The third-party overseas warehouse industry is transforming from a supplementary role in the supply chain to a core component of global trade efficiency, driven by the restructuring of global trade patterns and the growth of cross-border e-commerce [1][13]. Industry Positioning - Overseas warehouses are defined as storage facilities established abroad, optimizing cross-border logistics through a model of "bulk export, pre-storage, and local fulfillment." They are categorized into three types: third-party warehouses, platform-operated warehouses, and self-built warehouses by large enterprises [2][20]. - The three types of warehouses are not mutually exclusive but rather form a dynamic competitive ecosystem. For instance, nearly half of Amazon sellers use a combination of FBA and third-party warehouses, indicating a significant market opportunity for third-party warehouses [2][26]. Growth Drivers - The revival of the overseas warehouse industry is influenced by multiple factors, including rising global trade protectionism, strategic adjustments by cross-border e-commerce platforms, and uncertainties in the logistics environment [3][4]. - The shift in inventory cycles towards replenishment and supportive national policies are also contributing to the industry's growth [4]. Market Landscape - The overseas warehouse market is characterized by regional differentiation, with North America leading and emerging markets like Southeast Asia becoming new growth engines. China's overseas warehouse count is projected to grow from over 2,000 in 2021 to over 2,500 by 2024 [5][6]. - The service provider landscape shows significant stratification, with 56.25% being small warehouses and only 17.19% classified as large warehouses, indicating low industry concentration [5]. Service Evolution - Service offerings are evolving from basic warehousing to value-added services, with customized solutions becoming a competitive focus. Companies are leveraging technology to optimize logistics costs and enhance service delivery [6][7]. Competitive Landscape - The competition in the overseas warehouse industry is multi-dimensional, with small service providers facing survival pressures due to low automation and compliance capabilities. Leading companies are expanding their operations to consolidate their advantages [7][8]. - The bargaining power between merchants and service providers varies by scale, with small merchants prioritizing cost and larger merchants focusing on compliance and service quality [8]. Trend Outlook - The value of overseas warehouses is transitioning from a "cost center" to a "profit center," with demand extending beyond simple storage to include local distribution, after-sales service, and compliance consulting [9]. - Emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America are expected to continue releasing potential, while mature markets will focus on efficiency improvements through advanced technologies [9].

Core Insights - WTO economists predict a slowdown in global goods trade growth later this year due to ample inventories and increased tariffs impacting import demand [1][7] - In the first quarter of 2025, global goods trade volume increased by 3.6% quarter-on-quarter and 5.3% year-on-year, driven by a surge in North American imports in anticipation of higher U.S. tariffs [1][3] - The growth in trade volume exceeded WTO's earlier forecast of a 0.2% decline for the year [3] Trade Volume and Value - The dollar value of global goods trade, adjusted for seasonality, increased by 4% year-on-year in the first quarter, reflecting strong trade volume growth despite a decline in prices [3] - The first quarter saw significant growth in specific categories: office and telecommunications equipment (up 16%), chemicals (up 12%), and clothing (up 7%) [6] Regional Performance - North America led with a 13.4% quarter-on-quarter increase in imports, followed by Africa (5.1%), South America and Central America & Caribbean (3.6%), the Middle East (3.0%), Europe (1.3%), and Asia (1.1%) [4] - In terms of exports, the Middle East recorded the highest quarter-on-quarter growth at 6.3%, followed by Asia (5.6%) and South America (3.2%) [5] Future Trends - Data indicates that after a surge in the first quarter, import demand is beginning to slow down, with U.S. imports growing only 1% in the first two months of the second quarter after a 25% increase in the first quarter [7][8] - The World Bank reports a significant downward adjustment in trade growth forecasts for developed economies, with expected growth for 2025 being about half of earlier predictions [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that global trade is expected to grow by approximately 1.5% in Q1 2025 and 2% in Q2 2025, continuing a moderate recovery trend since the second half of 2023 [1] - Despite an increase of about $300 billion in global trade volume in the first half of this year, uncertainties stemming from U.S. trade policies and geopolitical tensions are expected to create significant obstacles in the second half of the year [1] - The report highlights the unclear direction of U.S. trade policy, making it difficult to predict whether the U.S. will suspend, exempt, or impose new tariffs on specific countries and products [1] Group 2 - Since the beginning of 2024, over 150 new restrictive trade measures have been implemented globally, significantly increasing pressure on the trade environment [2] - The economic situation of the least developed countries is particularly vulnerable amid these pressures, prompting calls for developing countries to enhance regional trade cooperation and increase export value [2] - The report emphasizes that China's provision of zero-tariff treatment to all African countries and least developed nations is a significant opportunity for promoting trade development [2]

据华尔街日报：欧盟发言人表示，欧盟已准备好完成贸易协议的框架，正等待美国的回应。 跟踪全球贸易动向 +订阅 ...

加拿大总理卡尼10日晚对美国总统特朗普新的关税威胁作出回应，表示将加强与世界各地贸易伙伴的关 系，以应对美方关税威胁。 ...

Group 1 - Emperor International has incurred a significant debt of HKD 16.6 billion, with loans now overdue [1] - The company reported a substantial loss exceeding HKD 4 billion last year [1] - Emperor International operates across multiple sectors including entertainment, real estate, jewelry, finance, and hospitality, with seven listed companies on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] Group 2 - China's average economic growth rate from 2021 to 2024 is projected to reach 5.5% [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission anticipates that China's economic increment over five years will exceed CNY 35 trillion, contributing around 30% to global economic growth annually [2] - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year, reversing a previous decline [2] Group 3 - The Chinese automotive market saw retail sales of 10.9 million passenger vehicles in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [4] - New energy vehicles accounted for 5.468 million units sold, driving significant growth in the market [4] Group 4 - The National Development Bank signed a CNY 2.1 billion loan agreement with the Southern African Development Bank to support infrastructure and other projects in Africa [6] - Several banks have reduced their operating loan interest rates to 3% or below, focusing on small and micro enterprises [7]

Group 1 - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its global trade outlook from "expansion" to "downward adjustment" due to increasing trade policy activities and geopolitical tensions among major trading partners [1][3] - The WTO report indicates that global trade uncertainty is rising, influenced by regional conflicts and geopolitical tensions, leading to increased volatility and unpredictability in the global trade environment [1][2] - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reported that while global trade is expected to grow by $300 billion in the first half of the year, it will face significant headwinds in the second half due to U.S. trade policy uncertainties and global geopolitical tensions [1][4] Group 2 - The WTO calls for countries to reduce tariffs and other trade barriers to promote trade liberalization and economic growth, emphasizing the need for transparency in trade policies [2][5] - The WTO's previous forecast in April predicted a 0.2% decline in global goods trade by 2025, with a 2.5% growth expected in 2026, but this outlook has been revised downward due to U.S. tariff policies [2][3] - The global goods trade barometer showed a rise in the index from 102.8 to 103.5, but a decline in new export orders indicates a potential slowdown in trade growth later this year [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its global trade outlook from an expected expansion to a downward adjustment due to increasing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: Global Trade Assessment - The WTO's latest report indicates a rise in global trade policy activities, with escalating tensions among major trading partners contributing to increased trade uncertainty [1]. - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) forecasts a $300 billion increase in global trade for the first half of the year, but warns of significant obstacles in the second half due to U.S. trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [1][7]. Group 2: Trade Policy and Measures - Since the beginning of the year, the U.S. has implemented various bilateral and global trade measures, prompting some economies to introduce trade facilitation measures while others have announced retaliatory measures, primarily involving tariff increases [3]. - The WTO calls for countries to reduce tariffs and other trade barriers to promote trade liberalization and economic growth, emphasizing the need for transparency in trade policies [3]. Group 3: Trade Volume Predictions - The WTO's earlier predictions for global trade growth in 2025 and 2026 have been significantly downgraded due to U.S. tariff policies, with expectations for a 0.2% decline in goods trade and a slower growth outlook for services trade [4]. - The WTO's Goods Trade Barometer shows a rise in the global goods trade index from 102.8 to 103.5, but a decline in new export orders indicates a potential slowdown in trade growth later this year [6]. Group 4: Trade Imbalances and Risks - The UNCTAD report highlights a worsening trade imbalance, with the U.S. trade deficit continuing to expand over the past four quarters, raising concerns about the fragmentation risks associated with recent U.S. tariff measures [7]. - The report warns that if U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" are fully implemented or if trade policy uncertainty spreads globally, a contraction in trade could occur [7].

Group 1: Tariff Changes and Impacts - The U.S. has issued tariff notices to 14 countries, affecting approximately 14.2% of U.S. imports, with tariff rates ranging from 25% to 40%[6] - The weighted average tariff level in the U.S. is expected to rise by 5-6 percentage points to around 15-16%, the highest since 1940[5][21] - The tariffs on 15 countries could further increase the effective tariff level by 2-2.5 percentage points, raising the average to approximately 9-10%[7][8] Group 2: Specific Country Tariffs - Japan and South Korea will face tariffs of 25% and 25% respectively, while Vietnam's tariff has been reduced from 46% to 20%[12] - The countries affected by the tariff notices include major Asian economies and some African and Eastern European nations, collectively accounting for 18.4% of U.S. imports in 2024[15] - The tariffs on specific goods from the 232 investigation, such as copper and semiconductors, are likely to be set at 25% and could be finalized by August 2025[16] Group 3: Future Trade Outlook - Global trade growth may significantly decline after July 9, 2025, due to the impact of these tariffs[11] - The potential for additional countries, particularly in Europe, to receive tariff notices remains high, indicating a broader trade conflict[11] - The uncertainty surrounding the tariffs on fentanyl and reciprocal tariffs may lead to further adjustments in trade policies[11]

印尼经济部发言人：与美国之间的讨论仍在进行中，我们将强调印尼是全球贸易的战略性国家。 ...