Core Insights - The shipping industry is experiencing a downward trend in freight rates, particularly in the North American routes, as companies like MSC Mediterranean Shipping and ZIM Shipping have paused their services [1][4] - Maersk's CEO indicated that the growth rate of cargo volume will depend on the strength of Chinese exports, as the U.S. market remains weak [1][12] - The shipping giants are shifting their focus towards emerging markets in Africa, South America, and the Middle East, indicating a strategic realignment in response to trade uncertainties [1][14][15] Freight Rate Trends - Freight rates for North American routes have shown a decline, with rates for shipments from Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast and East Coast dropping by 9.8% and 10.7% respectively [4][5] - The overall freight rates are expected to gradually decrease in the second half of the year, although they remain at relatively high levels compared to earlier in the year [4][6] - The Shanghai Shipping Exchange reported a continued downward trend in freight rates across most routes, particularly in the European market [5][9] Market Dynamics - Maersk reported a 20% increase in demurrage and detention fees, reflecting heightened market uncertainty and slower container pickup rates by customers [6][8] - The shipping industry is witnessing a competitive pricing environment as companies lower rates to attract cargo, particularly in the European routes [9][15] - The demand for shipping services in emerging markets is increasing, with significant growth observed in the Middle East and South Asia routes [15][16] Strategic Shifts - Shipping companies are increasingly launching new routes to emerging markets, with MSC introducing services to West Africa and South America [1][14] - Maersk has adjusted its annual container shipping volume growth forecast to 2%-4%, driven by strong demand outside North America [12][13] - The focus on new markets is seen as a response to the declining import volumes in North America, with companies looking to capitalize on growth opportunities in other regions [13][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - China's export in July increased by 7.2% year-on-year, and import increased by 4.1%. The "rush to export" and price increase supported the export to exceed expectations, while the price increase was the main driver for the import growth [3]. - In the short term, the "rush to export" logic may be weakening, and the export in August may decline. In the medium term, the uncertainty of tariff policies may decrease, and the support from quantity and price to export may decline, with the pressure of export slowdown gradually emerging [3]. - For imports, the CRB increase in August is still at a high level, which is expected to support the import reading. Attention should be paid to the repair elasticity of domestic demand, import volume, and price [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Export: The re - warming of entrepot trade in July under the uncertainty of tariff negotiations - **Overall situation**: In July, the export growth rate was +7.2%, rising for two consecutive months. The "rush to export" logic was strong due to the uncertainty of tariff negotiations, and the export price increase also contributed to the high export growth from June to July. However, the "rush to export" logic is weakening, and the export may decline in August [3][20]. - **By commodity type** - Labor - intensive consumer goods: The year - on - year export declined to - 3.1%. The reasons may be the pre - Christmas rush to export in June and the "price - for - volume" strategy [1][22]. - Intermediate goods: The export growth rate continued to rise, with a combined year - on - year increase of 18.6% for five types, driving the export growth by 2.1 percentage points. It is expected to remain the main support for exports [1][26]. - Electronic products: The drag on export increased. The combined year - on - year decline of mobile phones and laptops was - 1.3%, and the contribution to export was - 18.1% [29]. - Automobiles: The driving effect on export remained high, with a year - on - year increase of 18.6% in export value, driving the export growth by 0.6 percentage points [29]. - **By country** - Developed economies: The year - on - year export growth rates to the US, EU, and Japan were - 21.7%, +9.3%, and +2.5% respectively. The EU's export weight continued to be higher than the same period, showing a substitution effect [2][34]. - ASEAN: The export share decreased, with a year - on - year increase of 16.6% in July, a slight slowdown of 0.4 pct [2][34]. - Latin America: The proportion rebounded, with a year - on - year increase of 7.7% in export in July ( - 2.1% in June), and the share rose to 8.3%, reaching a new high since August 2024. Entrepot trade heated up [2][34]. 3.2 Import: Price increase drives the further upward movement of imports - **Overall situation**: In July, the import amount increased by 4.1% year - on - year, rising further after turning positive in June. The price increase was the main driving force, and the CRB spot index had a good synchronicity with the import amount growth rate [2][38]. - **By commodity type** - Upstream bulk commodities: The import drag narrowed, with a combined year - on - year decline of 7.9% in the import amount of five types of upstream bulk commodities, which was 3.5 pct higher than that in June [39]. - Intermediate goods: The growth rate continued to rise, with a combined year - on - year increase of 9.5% in the import of four types, driving the import growth by 1.9% [39]. - Downstream consumer goods: The drag also narrowed, with a combined year - on - year decline of - 15.6% in the import of three types of consumer goods ( - 21.0% in June) [39].

Group 1: Market Sentiment - Increased uncertainty in tariff policies is driving risk-averse sentiment, supporting gold prices [2] - Rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are weakening the dollar, which is favorable for gold [2] - A weak U.S. labor market and potential trade risks are reinforcing support for gold [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold is experiencing high-level fluctuations, with resistance at 3390-3400 and support at 3365-3355, close to the historical high of 3500 [2] - Bullish momentum is resilient but has not yet fully materialized; a breakthrough above 3400 could strengthen bullish sentiment, while failure to do so poses a risk of pullback [2] Group 3: Trading Recommendations - The strategy suggests a short-term focus on short positions, while remaining cautious of potential breakouts; waiting for support signals to enter long positions [4] - A light short position is recommended if resistance is encountered at 3390-3400, with a stop-loss above 3405 and a target of 3375-3370 [4] - If 3400 is effectively breached, short positions should be avoided, with attention on levels 3410-3420, and caution advised for chasing long positions [4] - A light long position is suggested if stability is observed at 3370-3365, with a stop-loss below 3360 and a target of 3380-3385 [4]

Group 1 - The article highlights that the U.S. tariff policy has triggered a price increase for technology products, with Nintendo raising the price of the Switch in the U.S. market, followed by potential price hikes for Apple's iPhone 17 series [1] - Counterpoint Research warns that due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies, the growth rate of PC shipments may slow down starting in the second half of 2025 compared to the same period last year, which could negatively impact brands like Acer and ASUS in the latter half of the year [1] - Despite the current exemption from tariffs on laptops, the ongoing uncertainty regarding policies poses significant challenges for the global PC manufacturing industry, which is highly concentrated in mainland China [1] Group 2 - ASUS has seen a notable increase in PC shipments in the second quarter due to the launch of new products based on NVIDIA's RTX50 platform and early shipments to the North American market [1] - ASUS's co-CEO has expressed uncertainty about the market conditions for the second half of the year, primarily due to fluctuating exchange rates and tariff issues [1]

Group 1 - The company expects to record a net profit attributable to shareholders of not less than HKD 12 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to a net profit of approximately HKD 15.7 million for the same period in 2024 [1] - The anticipated net profit is primarily due to a one-time gain of approximately HKD 23.2 million from fair value changes of financial assets measured at fair value through profit or loss, attributed to the full repayment of principal and accrued interest on convertible bonds issued by Talentone Technology Limited [1] - The company warns shareholders and potential investors that a decrease in customer orders has put pressure on group revenue, with an expected decline of approximately 16.6% in revenue for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies has negatively impacted the company, leading to a cautious approach from customers who are delaying and reducing their purchasing decisions [1] - The overall economic slowdown has further weakened the company's revenue performance during the period [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a slight decline on July 23, primarily due to investors taking profits after prices reached a five-week high [1] - The focus of market participants is on the trade negotiations ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline set by President Trump [1] - As of the report, spot gold prices fell by 0.53%, trading at $3413 per ounce [1] Group 2 - The Trump administration has intensified pressure on the Federal Reserve, with President Trump urging for interest rate cuts and calling for the resignation of Fed Chairman Powell [3] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin proposed a comprehensive internal review of the Federal Reserve, raising concerns about the potential loss of central bank independence [3] - Ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe have led to a stalemate in negotiations, contributing to uncertainty in tariff policies and a volatile global trade environment [3] Group 3 - The early part of the week saw a positive trend in gold prices, breaking through previous resistance levels and stabilizing above $3400 [5] - Short-term support for gold is identified at $3405, with key resistance levels at $3438 and historical highs at $3452 [5] - The market outlook suggests a cautious approach, with strategies to enter long positions near $3405 and short positions near $3435, while monitoring for potential breakouts [5]

Group 1 - Vietnam's seafood exports to China reached $1.1 billion in the first half of the year, marking a nearly 45% year-on-year increase, making China the largest importer of Vietnamese seafood, surpassing the United States [1] - The United States imported $905 million worth of seafood from Vietnam during the same period, reflecting a 17.5% increase compared to the previous year [1] - In June, Vietnam's seafood exports to the U.S. saw a significant decline of nearly 18% year-on-year, amounting to only $131 million, attributed to uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for fuel oil is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 2948.00 CNY/ton and a decline of 2.23% observed [1] - South China Futures indicates that June's fuel oil exports remain tight, with increased import demand from China and reduced imports from India and the US, leading to stronger overall demand [1] - The market sentiment for fuel oil is generally bearish, with downstream demand releasing slowly and limited support from cost direction [2] Group 2 - OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years in its 2025 outlook report, raising concerns about potential supply surplus [2] - The shipping market is experiencing weak transactions, with just-in-time purchasing and limited support from low prices offered by refineries [2] - Technically, the main contract for fuel oil (FU) is facing resistance around 2980 CNY, while the LU main contract has support near 3600 CNY, indicating a weak oscillation in the short term [2]

Group 1 - Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil to Asia, indicating confidence in demand resilience during the summer peak season, leading to a rise in international oil prices [1][2][3] - The OPEC alliance agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August, significantly higher than the previous three-month increase of 411,000 barrels, with nearly 80% of the voluntary daily cut of 2.2 million barrels returning to the market [2][3] - The increase in oil prices was also influenced by a decrease in U.S. crude and fuel inventories and a weaker dollar, which shifted market attention to fundamentals and supported summer demand [3] Group 2 - Saudi Arabia's pricing strategy, which includes a combination of production cuts and price increases, aims to balance short-term profits with long-term market share, showcasing its soft power in the global oil market [1][3][4] - The geopolitical and policy risks, particularly related to U.S. tariffs, continue to create uncertainty in the market, affecting demand expectations for the second half of 2025 [2][4] - Saudi Arabia is focusing on long-term strategies, including technological upgrades and gradual reforms, to maintain its resource value while navigating internal and external challenges [4]

Market Overview - The gold market experienced significant volatility this week, with prices reaching new highs before a pullback, ultimately recording a weekly increase of 1.91% [1] - Factors influencing gold prices include easing geopolitical risks, uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies, concerns over U.S. sovereign debt, and strong economic data [1] - Market focus is on upcoming events such as U.S. non-farm payroll data, the expiration of Trump's tariff suspension, and the Federal Reserve's policy outlook [1] Gold Price Analysis - Weekly analysis shows gold prices dropped to $3247.4 before rebounding to a high of $3365.6, closing with a bullish weekly candle [3] - Technical indicators such as TRIX, KDJ, and MACD suggest a bearish outlook, with expectations for gold to potentially decline to $3200 in the near term [3] - On Friday, influenced by the U.S. Independence Day holiday, gold showed limited volatility, with a recommendation to short positions around $3345-$3348, resulting in a profit as prices fell to $3331 [3] Trading Recommendations - For the upcoming week, a trading strategy suggests shorting gold around $3347-$3350, with a stop loss at $3355 and a target profit at $3325 [5]