Core Viewpoint - The defense and military industry sector is experiencing a significant pullback, with the popular defense ETF (512810) declining over 1% and hitting a six-month low, while major military stocks are also seeing declines [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The defense military ETF (512810) has seen a decline of 1.60%, trading at 0.676, with a drop of 0.011 [2]. - Major military stocks such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation have dropped nearly 3% and over 1% respectively [1]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The ETF has attracted over 100 million yuan in net subscriptions over the past six trading days, indicating active interest from investors [1]. - Analysts suggest that the fourth quarter may see the gradual realization of "14th Five-Year Plan" related orders, coupled with military trade catalysts, which could lead to a resurgence in the defense and military market [1]. - The defense industry is expected to benefit from geopolitical risks, technological advancements, and policy support, with potential for high-end weapon exports and a revaluation of core asset values [1]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - CITIC Securities' report indicates a shift in China's defense industry from "cyclical growth" to "comprehensive growth," driven by domestic demand, foreign trade expansion, and civilian contributions [3]. - The defense ETF (512810) is highlighted as an efficient tool for investing in core defense assets, covering various hot themes such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and military AI [3].

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant turning point for the defense and military industry in 2025, with a strong recovery in both fundamentals and market performance, indicating a shift from policy expectations to actual performance realization [4][9][11] - The industry is entering a new phase characterized by rigid demand, structural upgrades, and improved financial health, with five core judgments outlined for 2026 [4][6][24] Industry Trends - The defense and military sector saw a cumulative increase of 16.39% in the Shenwan Defense Index by October 31, 2025, closely aligning with the performance of the CSI 300 index but lagging behind the growth-driven ChiNext index [9] - The market experienced a "Q1 bottoming, Q2 recovery, Q3 acceleration, and Q4 consolidation" rhythm, with the driving force shifting from policy expectations to performance realization [9][10] Financial Performance - The industry ended the "increasing revenue without increasing profit" dilemma, with significant improvements in operating cash flow and profitability quality, marking a transition to a new phase of high-quality development [4][24][26] - By November 10, 2025, the PE-TTM (excluding negative values) for the defense sector was approximately 70 times, indicating a structural revaluation rather than a systemic bubble [20][24] Revenue and Profitability - The report indicates a recovery in revenue and profit growth in 2025, with a notable increase in operating cash flow, signaling a turnaround from previous years of negative cash flow [24][31] - The industry experienced a significant rebound in profitability, with a 17.29% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2025, reflecting effective cost control and improved operational efficiency [26][31] Investment Focus - The investment strategy focuses on four main lines: the main battle equipment supply chain from a military trade perspective, advanced combat capabilities, military-civilian integration sectors, and reform and asset securitization [4][6][26] - Key companies to watch include AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, and others involved in military trade and advanced combat technologies [4][6][26]

室 坑车工 2025 年 11 月 17 日 时代小说书 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 册 分歧污 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 关注军贸及消耗类武器, 配置周期 国防军工行业周报（2025年第 47 周） 本期投资提示: 上周申万国防军工指数下跌 2.15%，中证军工龙头指数下跌 1.53%，同期上证综指下 ● 跌 0.18%, 沪深 300 下跌 1.08%, 创业板指下跌 3.01%, 申万国防军工指数跑赢创业 板指、跑输沪深 300、跑输上证综指、跑输军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上周 国防军工板块 2.15%的跌幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 27 位。2、从我们构建 的军工集团指数变化来看，上周中证民参 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the defense and military industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the sector, suggesting it will outperform the overall market [23]. Core Insights - The military industry is entering an upward cycle as per the "14th Five-Year Plan" recommendations, with expectations of performance recovery in Q4 2025, driven by increased military trade and order fulfillment [3][4]. - The report highlights that the military trade landscape is evolving due to rising global geopolitical uncertainties, leading to increased demand for military products, particularly in the Middle East and Asia [3]. - Key investment opportunities are identified in next-generation equipment, unmanned/anti-unmanned weapons, and information/intelligent systems, with a focus on companies that are expected to benefit from these trends [3]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index fell by 2.15%, while the CSI Military Leaders Index decreased by 1.53%. In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 0.18% and the CSI 300 by 1.08% [4][11]. - The report notes that the defense and military sector's performance ranked 27th among 31 Shenwan primary industries, indicating a relatively poor performance compared to other sectors [4]. - The report lists the top five gainers in the defense sector: Tian'ao Electronics (up 12.63%), Aerospace Development (up 8.54%), *ST Dali (up 7.1%), Aerospace Intelligence Equipment (up 5.72%), and 712 (up 4.21%) [11][12]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan military sector is 76.94, placing it in the upper range historically, with a valuation percentile of 65.32% since January 2014 and 91.95% since January 2019 [12][13]. - The report indicates a slight differentiation in valuations among sub-sectors, with aerospace and aviation equipment showing relatively high PE valuations since 2020 [12][13].

现在全球局势发生了巨大的变化，哪怕是12月份的美联储降息的预测降到了50%以下，这就意味着近期的市场会利空偏多，连锁反应会导致金融市场受到明 显的影响。A股市场在上周已经出现机构减仓的迹象，这里不排除还有资金在本周利空消息下有所动作，目前"击鼓传花"的个股比较多，一定要小心自己成 为"最后一棒"的接替者。资金仍然在高低位切换，这里还是要注意风险谨慎而为之，金融市场的风险永远多于机会，赚钱的永远是少数"能看懂的人"！ 骑牛看熊发现军工行业将进入上升周期，从三季报来看，军工行业业绩整体见底，前三季度同比降幅收窄，判断Q4 将恢复同比正增长，且提速趋势将持 续。进入四季度，预计"十五五"相关订单有望逐步落地，叠加军贸催化，进入订单交付与确收旺季，预期业绩呈逐步修复趋势，军工行业"十五五"将进入到 新一轮提质增量的上升周期。地缘局势不确定性加剧，军工板块关注度有望提升台海局势，当前我国先进主战装备不仅能够满足国内列装需求，而且在国际 经贸市场上具备一定竞争力，持续看好我国高端化和体系化武器装备出口前景，有望带动军工核心资产的价值重估。 三大指数集体低开，两市个股跌多涨少，题材板块方面林业、渔业、地面兵装等板块表现较强 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the defense and military industry, indicating a turning point in profitability and growth potential [6][4]. Core Insights - The military industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle driven by the initiation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" equipment construction, military trade, and commercial aerospace advancements [2][3]. - The overall revenue for the military sector increased by 3.07% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.89%, showing a narrowing decline compared to the previous year [6][11]. - Key segments such as components, sub-systems, and assembly levels have shown signs of recovery, with revenue growth turning positive for the first time since 2021 [18][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Analysis - In Q3 2025, revenue growth rates for components, sub-systems, and assembly levels were 8.30%, 3.37%, and 1.16% respectively, marking a positive shift from negative growth in 2024 [18][19]. - The net profit for the components level increased by 6.94% year-on-year, while sub-systems and assembly levels saw declines of 28.98% and 19.48% respectively [18][23]. 2. Cash Flow Improvement - The cash flow from operations for sub-systems and assembly levels improved, while components faced temporary pressure [40][42]. - The sales collection ratio for assembly levels rose significantly by 23.23 percentage points to 92.50% in Q3 2025, indicating better cash flow management [40][41]. 3. Prepayments and Inventory - Prepayments (including contract liabilities) across all levels showed an upward trend, with assembly levels increasing by 21.85% to 63.345 billion yuan [48][49]. - Inventory levels for components, sub-systems, and assembly increased by 12.57%, 8.81%, and 19.82% respectively, suggesting a positive outlook for future performance [53][54]. 4. Segment Performance - The weaponry segment led revenue growth with a remarkable 27.52% increase, while the aerospace segment grew by 6.17% and the information technology segment by 5.37% [35][36]. - The information technology segment achieved a net profit growth rate of 136.38%, indicating strong performance and future growth potential [36][39].

Core Insights - The defense and military industry index experienced a decline of -0.47% over the past week, ranking 25th out of 31 in the Shenwan first-level industry classification [3][7] - Over the past month, the index fell by -2.45%, ranking 24th out of 31 [3][10] - In the past year, the index increased by 4.99%, ranking 21st out of 31 [3][14] - The current PE-TTM for the defense and military industry is 78.66, which is at the 73.66 percentile of the past ten years, indicating a relatively high valuation level [3][14][41] Industry and Stock Performance Review Industry Performance Review - The defense and military industry index has shown a performance of -0.47% in the last week, -2.45% in the last month, and +4.99% in the last year [3][7][14] - The PE-TTM of the aerospace equipment sub-industry is 80.71, while the aerospace equipment sub-industry has a PE-TTM of 304.62, indicating significant valuation differences among sub-sectors [3][14] Stock Performance Review - The top-performing stocks in the defense and military industry over the past week include Triangle Defense (+25.28%), Guorui Technology (+14.59%), and Hangfa Technology (+7.27%) [3][18] - The worst-performing stocks include Jiangxin Technology (-17.20%), Guorui Technology (-4.41%), and Hailanxin (-4.77%) [3][18] Funding Situation - The total transaction volume for the defense and military industry was 257.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of -43.71% and a week-on-week decrease of -28.70% [3][32] - The military ETF fund shares decreased by -1.41% compared to the previous week, but increased by +70.89% year-on-year [3][34] Industry News - The successful launch of the Starcloud-1 satellite equipped with H100 GPU marks a significant step in space data center construction [3][40] - The first electromagnetic catapult aircraft carrier, Fujian, has been officially commissioned, representing a new era in China's naval capabilities [3][42] Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to focus on investment themes such as commercial aerospace, military trade, unmanned equipment, military AI, and low-altitude economy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huazhong Securities indicates that AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (中航沈飞) achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.362 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 25.10% [1] Group 1: Military Trade Development - The Aviation Industry Corporation of China has positioned military trade as a core business, establishing a Military Trade Development Committee, office, and working groups to enhance the group's overall management and shorten decision-making chains [1] - Major decisions regarding military trade will be coordinated across the entire group, ensuring comprehensive integration and execution [1] Group 2: Strategic Alignment and Market Expansion - The company is fully committed to implementing the decisions made by the Aviation Industry Corporation's Party Committee, benchmarking against advanced domestic and international aviation enterprises [1] - The company is strategically aligning its equipment development resources to meet the policy requirement of "one type of equipment serving two markets," actively seizing opportunities for open development [1] - There is a continuous effort to engage with target customers and accelerate the expansion into the high-end military trade market for aviation equipment [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The year 2025 is identified as a critical year for the "14th Five-Year Plan," and the company expresses confidence in fulfilling all annual work tasks [1] - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [1]

Group 1 - The defense and military sector saw a significant surge, with Triangular Defense stock hitting a 20% limit up, leading to a trading volume exceeding 2 billion yuan, a new high in nearly a year [1] - Triangular Defense announced a development agreement and framework order with Siemens Energy, which has a gas turbine order backlog of approximately 136 billion euros for the first half of 2025 [1] - The Defense and Military ETF (512810) also rose, reaching a peak of 1% during trading, with net subscriptions totaling over 29 million yuan in the previous four trading days [1] Group 2 - According to Dongfang Securities, some upstream sectors in the defense and military industry showed improved performance in Q2, indicating a strengthening outlook for the sector [3] - The third-quarter reports revealed that 68 out of 79 component stocks in the Defense and Military ETF (512810) were profitable, with over half showing year-on-year growth, and 15 stocks exceeding 100% growth [3] - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities noted a trend of quarterly improvement in financial reports, with expectations for "14th Five-Year Plan" related orders to gradually materialize, potentially driving the defense and military market upward [3] Group 3 - The top 15 stocks in the Defense and Military ETF (512810) showed significant year-on-year net profit growth, with companies like Chuanjiang New Material and Gaode Infrared reporting net profit increases of over 20 times and 10 times, respectively [4] - The ETF serves as an efficient tool for investing in core assets of the defense and military sector, covering various hot topics such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, controllable nuclear fusion, large aircraft, deep-sea technology, and military AI [4]

Investment Rating - The report suggests increasing attention to the military industry, particularly focusing on elastic and thematic varieties [4][5]. Core Viewpoints - The military industry is experiencing significant changes at the margin, with overall revenue and performance needing recovery. The industry saw a year-on-year revenue decline of 1.68% and a net profit decline of 10.95% for Q1-Q3 2025 [4][5]. - The report highlights a divergence in performance across different equipment sectors, with ground equipment showing a revenue growth of 18.2%, while naval equipment and aerospace equipment experienced declines of 8.4% and 1.7%, respectively [4][5]. - The report emphasizes that the military industry's operational indicators are showing stable growth, indicating a sustained industry outlook [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The military industry’s revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 was 483.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.68%. The net profit for the same period was 24.5 billion, down 10.95% [23][26]. - The performance across different sectors is mixed, with ground equipment and naval equipment showing contrasting trends in revenue and profit growth [4][5]. 2. Profitability Indicators - The overall gross margin and net margin for the military industry were 18.04% and 5.07%, respectively, indicating a slight decline in profitability [28]. - The military electronics sector maintained a higher profitability level compared to other sectors, which experienced minor fluctuations [4][5]. 3. Operational Indicators - Key operational metrics such as inventory, accounts payable, and contract liabilities showed year-on-year increases of 13.19%, 30.96%, and 30.96%, respectively, indicating stable growth in operational indicators [31]. - The report notes that the military industry is well-positioned to meet future demand, with significant pre-receivables and contract liabilities suggesting a robust outlook for the next 3-5 years [31]. 4. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The aviation sector contributed the most to the industry’s revenue and net profit, accounting for 46% and 58%, respectively, in Q1-Q3 2025 [44]. - The report identifies a notable performance in the naval equipment sector, with 62.5% of companies in this area reporting profit increases [51]. 5. Key Investment Targets - The report recommends focusing on high-end combat capabilities and new quality combat capabilities, highlighting specific companies such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and Ziguang Guowei as key targets for investment [4][5].