农产品日报 | 2026-01-15 基本面描述，猪价延波动，蛋价稳偏强 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约12010元/吨，较前交易日变动+215.00元/吨，幅度+1.82%。现货方面，河南地 区外三元生猪价格12.96元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.08元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+950，较前交易日变动-135；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 13.20元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH03+1190，较前交易日变动-215； 四川地区外三元生猪价格12.87元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH03+860，较前交易日变动-215。 据农业农村部监测，1月14日"农产品批发价格200指数"为128.10，比昨天上升0.01个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为130.59，比昨天上升0.02个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.06元/公斤，比昨天上升0.1%；牛肉65.48 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.1%；羊肉62.77元/公斤，比昨天上升0.1%；鸡蛋7.75元/公斤，比昨天上升0.8%；白条鸡17.78 元/公斤，比昨天上升0. ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Leading the Market - A" with a maintained rating [5]. Core Views - The recent pig prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with a focus on changes in production capacity [19][21]. - The white feather chicken market is experiencing a supply-demand mismatch, with stable prices but cautious market sentiment [33]. - The aquaculture sector shows stable prices, presenting potential investment opportunities [47]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The agricultural sector increased by 0.98% during the latest trading week, ranking 29th among the primary industries [12]. - The animal health sector saw significant gains, with notable increases in specific stocks [15]. 2. Industry Data Tracking 2.1. Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is 12.49 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.54% and a two-week increase of 4.22% [18]. - The average price of piglets is 363 CNY/head, stable over the past two weeks [19]. - The average daily slaughter volume of pigs is 226,500 heads, showing a week-on-week decrease of 5.12% [19]. 2.2. Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather chicken is 7.64 CNY/kg, down 1.04% week-on-week [33]. - The price of chicken seedlings is 3.59 CNY/bird, up 1.70% week-on-week [33]. - The market is stable, but there is a notable increase in inventory levels due to weak demand [33]. 2.3. Planting Sector - The average price of corn is 2,352.77 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.02% week-on-week [42]. - The average price of domestic wheat is 2,512.98 CNY/ton, down 0.12% week-on-week [42]. - The average price of domestic soybeans is 4,048.42 CNY/ton, up 0.50% week-on-week [42]. 2.4. Aquaculture Sector - The average price of carp is 20.00 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 11.11% [47]. - The average price of crab is 260.00 CNY/kg, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 30.00% [47]. - The average price of shrimp is 320.00 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week but down 11.11% year-on-year [47].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that the pork price has slightly declined but remains supported by high slaughter volumes and increased breeding activity. The pre-Spring Festival stocking has not yet started, and downstream profits are still in need of recovery. The average price of live pigs as of January 9, 2026, is 12.58 CNY/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.09 CNY/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 3.36 CNY/kg. The industry gross white price difference is 3.85 CNY/kg, which has decreased by 0.13 CNY/kg week-on-week and 1.46 CNY/kg year-on-year, indicating potential for recovery as stocking begins [5][14]. Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The report notes that the pre-Spring Festival stocking has not yet started, and downstream profits are still in need of recovery. The average price of live pigs is 12.58 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.09 CNY/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 3.36 CNY/kg. The industry gross white price difference is 3.85 CNY/kg, indicating potential for recovery as stocking begins [5][14]. Market Performance - From January 5 to January 9, the agricultural sector underperformed the market by 2.84 percentage points. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.82%, while the agricultural index increased by 0.98%. The fishery sector led the gains, with notable increases in stocks such as Dahu Co. (+17.83%), Zhongshui Fishery (+16.07%), and Biological Co. (+15.46%) [7][20][24]. Key News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported a 98% compliance rate in the national agricultural product quality safety monitoring for 2025. Additionally, the central reserve of frozen pork will initiate a two-way rotation with an outflow and storage volume of 17,800 tons each [6][26]. Price Tracking - As of January 9, 2026, the average price of live pigs is 12.63 CNY/kg, down 0.13 CNY/kg from the previous week. The average price of piglets is 20.39 CNY/kg, up 0.95 CNY/kg week-on-week. The average price of white strips of meat is 16.85 CNY/kg, showing a slight increase of 0.05 CNY/kg [8][28].

Group 1 - The national market price of edible agricultural products increased by 0.2% from December 15 to 21 compared to the previous week [1] - The average wholesale prices of six types of fruits saw a slight increase, with watermelon, grapes, and bananas rising by 3.5%, 2.6%, and 1.6% respectively [1] Group 2 - Wholesale prices of poultry products experienced a slight increase, with both eggs and broiler chickens rising by 0.1% [2] Group 3 - The wholesale price of pork was 18.08 yuan per kilogram, increasing by 0.4%, while beef and lamb prices remained stable compared to the previous week [3] - Grain and oil wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with flour increasing by 0.2%, while canola oil and rice remained stable; peanut oil and soybean oil decreased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [3] - Wholesale prices of aquatic products saw a slight decline, with grass carp, crucian carp, and large yellow croaker decreasing by 0.4%, 0.4%, and 0.1% respectively [3] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 5.99 yuan per kilogram, decreasing by 0.7%, with cauliflower, broccoli, and lettuce dropping by 13.4%, 11.6%, and 10.2% respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The average price of pork in China's wholesale markets has increased, while the average price of eggs has decreased, indicating fluctuations in agricultural product prices [1] Price Summary - As of December 25, the average price of pork is 17.44 yuan per kilogram, which represents a 0.5% increase from the previous day [1] - The average price of eggs is 7.32 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 1.5% decrease from the previous day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic and international oilseed market is facing increasing bearish factors, leading to expectations of declining prices for canola oil in December 2023 due to rising supply and decreasing import costs [1][9]. Supply Factors - Global canola seed supply is expected to increase significantly, with Canada projecting a record production of 21.8 million tons for the 2025/26 season, an increase of 1.77 million tons from previous estimates, representing a 13.31% rise [1]. - Australia is also expected to achieve a record canola seed production of 7.2 million tons for the 2025/26 season, up by 126,000 tons or 21.21% from the previous year [1]. - The EU is projected to produce 20 million tons of canola seed for the 2025/26 season, an increase of 3.36 million tons or 19.95% year-on-year [1]. Demand Factors - Canadian canola seed exports have significantly decreased, with cumulative exports for the 2025/26 season at 2.087 million tons, down by 1.801 million tons or 46.32% compared to the previous year [4]. - Despite an increase in domestic canola seed crushing in Canada, the limited growth combined with a substantial drop in export volume has led to a surplus in the domestic market [4]. Price Trends - The price of Canadian canola seed has been declining, with the main futures price at CAD 601.9 per ton as of December 16, down 7.04% from November and 1.73% from December 2024 [4]. - The cost of imported canola seed to China has also decreased, with a reported cost of CNY 3,894 per ton as of December 16, down 5.92% from November and 1.12% from December 2024 [4]. Domestic Market Impact - The arrival of Australian canola seed shipments has led to a decrease in domestic canola oil prices, with the price of imported canola oil at CNY 9,727 per ton as of December 16, down 5.93% from November but up 5.38% from December 2024 [5]. - The operational capacity of domestic oil mills is expected to rise to around 11% due to increased imports, contributing to a recovery in canola oil inventory levels [7]. Future Expectations - With the anticipated increase in global canola seed production and rising domestic supply, the average price of imported canola oil is expected to continue declining, projected at around CNY 9,835 per ton, a decrease of 3.50% month-on-month [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in vegetable prices compared to previous years, indicating a trend of inflation in food prices, particularly vegetables, while some meat and fruit prices have decreased or remained stable [1][3]. Price Changes in Vegetables - Vegetable prices have increased dramatically, with items like cabbage now costing around 1-2 yuan per jin, compared to just a few dimes in previous years [1]. - Many vegetables have seen price increases of at least 50% compared to last year [3]. Price Changes in Fruits - Fruit prices have generally decreased, with strawberries available for under 5 yuan, cherries around 10 yuan, and grapes below 3 yuan [2]. - Citrus fruits like oranges are also affordable, with prices around 5 yuan for three jin [2]. Price Changes in Meat and Eggs - Pork prices have reached new lows, with prices for various cuts dropping below 10 yuan per jin [2][3]. - Chicken prices have seen fluctuations, with some cuts now priced above 20 yuan per jin, which is an increase from previous years [3]. - Egg prices have varied throughout the year, with current prices around 2.6 to 2.9 yuan per egg [2]. Regional Price Variations - There are notable regional differences in vegetable prices, with some areas experiencing higher prices than city centers [2]. - In Shenzhen, for example, prices for basic vegetables like lettuce and tomatoes are significantly higher, with lettuce costing around 6 yuan and tomatoes 7 yuan [8]. Supply Chain Factors - The article mentions that continuous rainfall in the autumn has severely impacted vegetable production in northern regions, leading to supply shortages and higher prices [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the fluctuations in agricultural product prices, with specific indices showing both weekly and yearly changes in wholesale prices [1][2] Group 2 - The "Agricultural Products Wholesale Price 200 Index" for the 48th week of 2025 is reported at 126.28, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.86 points and a year-on-year increase of 4.96 points [1] - The "'Vegetable Basket' Product Wholesale Price Index" stands at 128.52, with a weekly rise of 1.00 points and a year-on-year increase of 5.99 points [1] - Pork prices continue to decline, with the average wholesale price at 17.82 yuan per kilogram, down 0.2% week-on-week and down 23.9% year-on-year [1] - Beef prices show a slight increase, with an average wholesale price of 66.28 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 9.2% year-on-year rise despite a 0.3% weekly decline [1] - Lamb prices have increased slightly, averaging 62.80 yuan per kilogram, up 6.1% year-on-year [1] - Chicken prices have seen a minor increase, with an average of 17.47 yuan per kilogram, down 1.7% year-on-year [1] - Egg prices have risen slightly to 7.27 yuan per kilogram, although they are down 27.7% year-on-year [1] Group 3 - The average price of 28 monitored vegetables has increased to 5.76 yuan per kilogram, up 1.6% week-on-week and up 15.7% year-on-year [2] - Specific vegetable prices have varied, with cauliflower and zucchini seeing significant weekly increases of 9.7% and 7.4% respectively [2] - Fish prices are mixed, with some types like large yellow croaker and grass carp experiencing slight declines, while others like carp have seen increases [2] Group 4 - The average price of six monitored fruits has risen to 7.29 yuan per kilogram, up 2.5% week-on-week and up 2.7% year-on-year [2] - Watermelon and giant grapes have shown notable weekly price increases of 6.3% and 3.3% respectively [2]

Group 1: Pork Market - The average daily trading volume of pork (including live pigs) increased to 10,797 heads (825.27 tons), a rise of 3.73% compared to the previous week [1] - The average price of live pigs in Hangzhou was 14.48 yuan/kg, up by 0.07% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of pork decreased to 16.21 yuan/kg, down by 0.98% [1] - Retail prices for various pork cuts showed mixed results, with pork loin at 34.52 yuan/kg increasing by 0.26%, while pork belly dropped by 6.82% to 34.73 yuan/kg [1] Group 2: Vegetable Market - The average daily trading volume of vegetables fell to 3,347.86 tons, a decrease of 9.83% from the previous week [2] - The overall average wholesale price of vegetables rose to 5.59 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.27% [2] - Significant price increases were noted for green chili peppers at 7.23 yuan/kg (up 6.17%) and tomatoes at 6.01 yuan/kg (up 4.34%), while cauliflower dropped by 9.02% to 5.75 yuan/kg [2] - Retail prices for monitored vegetables showed an overall increase, with winter melon rising by 21.55% to 5.81 yuan/kg [2] Group 3: Egg and Seafood Market - The average daily trading volume of eggs remained stable at 1,035 tons, with wholesale prices for chicken eggs at 7.23 yuan/kg, down by 2.32% [3] - Retail prices for chicken eggs increased by 1.95% to 11 yuan/kg, while duck eggs rose slightly to 16.54 yuan/kg [3] - The total trading volume of seafood was 3,036.9 tons, with an average daily volume of 433.84 tons, down by 1.47% [3] - The overall wholesale price of seafood decreased to 40.48 yuan/kg, down by 0.37%, while retail prices increased by 4.79% to 66.45 yuan/kg [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term due to unstable supply and weak downstream consumption. In the long - run, after the first peak of grain sales, prices may rebound as farmers may hold back on selling [2] - Starch prices are pressured by high inventory in the short - term, and downstream consumption rhythm will be the key factor for long - term price trends [3] - For sugar, maintain a short - selling strategy as the global and domestic supply is loose. However, short - term downward space is limited [5] - Cotton is suitable for long - term buying as new cotton production is lower than expected and the external environment for textile exports has improved [8] - Egg prices have a slightly higher price center due to balanced supply and demand. Faster chicken culling may drive prices up [14] - Apple prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term with a reduction in new - season production and quality issues in some regions [16] - Pig prices will experience short - term market fluctuations. Mid - term supply pressure remains high, and the de - stocking process is the key driver of the market [16] 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/06 to 2025/11/12, corn prices in some areas increased slightly (e.g., 10 yuan increase in some locations), while starch processing profit decreased by 20 yuan [2] - **Market Analysis**: Short - term corn price increase is limited by weak downstream demand. Starch prices follow raw material prices but are suppressed by high inventory [2][3] Sugar - **Price Data**: Changes from 2025/11/06 to 2025/11/11 show fluctuations in spot prices and other indicators, with the number of warehouse receipts remaining unchanged [4][5] - **Market Analysis**: Short - term Zhengzhou sugar is more affected by policies. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus worsens, domestic sugar costs may be affected [5] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/06 to 2025/11/12, cotton prices decreased slightly (e.g., 3128 cotton dropped from 14490 to 14395), and some related profit indicators changed [6][8] - **Market Analysis**: New cotton production is lower than expected, and improved external conditions for textile exports make it suitable for long - term investment [8] Eggs - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/06 to 2025/11/12, egg prices in some production areas increased slightly, and the basis and prices of some substitutes changed [14] - **Market Analysis**: Supply pressure is relieved, and demand is increasing. Faster chicken culling may drive up prices [14] Apples - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/06 to 2025/11/12, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8000 yuan, and inventory and basis data changed [15][16] - **Market Analysis**: New - season apple production has decreased, and prices will fluctuate in the short - term [16] Pigs - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/06 to 2025/11/12, pig prices in some production areas decreased slightly, and the basis changed significantly [16] - **Market Analysis**: Short - term prices will fluctuate, and mid - term supply pressure is high. The de - stocking process is crucial [16]