Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market on August 4, 2025, covering overnight and spot market quotes, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, capital flows, and arbitrage tracking. It focuses on the performance of various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil, as well as international and domestic economic indicators. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil in October was 4,245.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.35%. Brent crude oil in October on ICE was at 69.52, a decrease of 3.15% the previous day and 0.20% overnight. NYMEX US crude oil in September was at 67.26, down 3.03% the previous day and 0.06% overnight [1]. - The US dollar index was at 98.67, a decrease of 1.32%. The exchange rates of various currencies against the US dollar showed different trends, with the Malaysian ringgit, Indonesian rupiah, Brazilian real, and Singapore dollar appreciating, while the Argentine peso depreciated [1]. Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 9,040, 8,910, and 8,900 respectively, with corresponding basis values of 120, - 10, and - 20, and basis changes of - 10, - 40, and 0 [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8,300, 8,520, 8,460, and 8,390 respectively, with basis values and changes varying by region [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, the spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 2,890, 2,890, 2,870, and 2,970 respectively, with corresponding basis values and changes [2]. - The CNF quotes for imported soybeans from Brazil and Argentina were 474 and 452 dollars per ton respectively, with CNF premiums of 300 and 240 cents per bushel [2]. Important Fundamental Information - **Weather in Production Areas**: US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - average temperatures from August 6 - 10, with more precipitation in the northwest and northeast. The weather in the US Midwest is currently favorable for corn and soybean growth, with occasional rainfall and temperature fluctuations [3][5]. - **International Supply and Demand**: In July 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 7.07% according to SPPOMA. Indonesia exported 2.07 million tons of crude palm oil and its products in June. There were also changes in the positions of various agricultural products futures, US soybean crushing volume, Canadian rapeseed exports, and Nigeria's plan to double soybean planting area by 2027 [9][10][11]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: On August 1, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 31% compared to the previous day. There were also changes in the trading volume and开机 rate of soybean meal, soybean crushing volume, Brazilian soybean shipping plans to China, pig - breeding profits, and agricultural product wholesale prices [14][15]. Macro - economic News - **International News**: US economic data in July showed mixed results, with lower - than - expected non - farm payrolls, slightly higher unemployment rate, and inflation expectations. The ISM and S&P Global manufacturing PMIs also had different performances. There were discussions about OPEC+ production increases [18][20]. - **Domestic News**: On August 1, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upwards. The Chinese central bank carried out reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds on the day and a net injection for the week. Newly - issued government bond interest income will be subject to VAT starting from August 8 [22]. Capital Flows - On August 1, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 9.63 billion yuan, with 1.091 billion yuan from commodity futures (697 million yuan inflow in agricultural product futures, 140 million yuan inflow in chemical futures, 1.293 billion yuan outflow in black - series futures, and 635 million yuan outflow in metal futures) and 8.539 billion yuan from stock - index futures [25]. - The capital flows of major futures varieties varied, with inflows in some commodities like soybean oil and gold, and outflows in others such as crude oil and copper [24]. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: In the short - term, the supply - demand gap persists before the new crop is on the market, providing strong support for spot and near - month contract prices. In the long - term, potential increases in forward import orders and new - season supply may put downward pressure on prices [3]. - **Starch**: In the short - term, it is expected to have a weak rebound. In the long - term, high inventory and lower expected raw material costs lead to a bearish outlook [3]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, there is potential for a corrective rebound in raw sugar. Domestically, the arrival of imported sugar creates significant upward pressure on the futures market [6]. - **Cotton**: The upward trend needs verification during the September peak season. Consider 9 - 11 or 9 - 1 reverse spreads for month - spreads [8]. - **Eggs**: Spot prices are in a seasonal upward channel, but high cold - storage egg inventory and high laying - hen存栏 may limit the rebound height [13]. - **Apples**: New - season production may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the market share is squeezed by seasonal fruits [16]. - **Pigs**: Long - term supply pressure remains. Futures prices need further verification from spot prices, and short - term supply is sufficient with seasonal support [16]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From July 25 to July 31, corn prices in some regions changed, with a maximum decline of 20 yuan/ton in蛇口. Starch prices were stable, and the processing profit increased by 2 yuan [2]. - **Analysis**: Corn supply tension is slightly relieved by auctions. Starch is in a loss situation with high inventory [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From July 25 to July 31, sugar prices in some regions decreased, with a maximum decline of 20 yuan/ton in柳州. The import profit increased by 7 yuan/ton for Thailand sugar [6]. - **Analysis**: International supply pressure affects prices. Domestic import arrivals create upward pressure on the futures market [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From July 25 to July 31, the price of 3128 imported M - grade US cotton decreased by 150 yuan/ton. The 32S spinning profit increased by 77 yuan/ton [8]. - **Analysis**: Inventory reduction drives price increases, but downstream demand is weak [8]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From July 25 to July 31, egg prices in some regions decreased, with a maximum decline of 0.10 yuan in山东 and河南. The base difference decreased by 38 [13]. - **Analysis**: Seasonal factors drive price increases, but high inventory and存栏 may limit the increase [13]. Apples - **Price Data**: From July 25 to July 31, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7800 yuan/ton. The national inventory increased by 68 (unit not specified) [16]. - **Analysis**: New - season production may be similar to last year, and consumption is in the off - season [16]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From July 25 to July 31, pig prices in some regions increased, with a maximum increase of 0.40 yuan in河南开封. The base difference increased by 400 [16]. - **Analysis**: Long - term supply pressure exists, and futures prices need spot verification [16].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For corn, short - term support for spot and near - month contract prices is strong due to expected supply gap before new crop listing, but long - term supply increase may pressure prices [4]. - For starch, short - term weak rebound is expected, while long - term outlook is bearish due to high inventory and expected lower raw material cost [4]. - For sugar, international sugar price may have a corrective rebound, and the domestic market faces upward pressure as imported sugar is about to arrive in large quantities [7]. - For cotton, the price increase is driven by inventory reduction, but the upward trend needs verification in September; consider 9 - 11 or 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage for month - spreads [9]. - For eggs, the spot price is in a seasonal upward channel, but high cold - storage egg inventory and high laying - hen存栏 may limit the rebound height [14]. - For apples, the new - season output may not differ much from last year, and consumption is in the off - season with slow de - stocking [17]. - For pigs, long - term supply pressure remains, and the futures price needs further verification from the spot market [17]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From July 24 - 30, corn prices in some regions changed slightly, with a 16 - yuan increase in潍坊 and no change in蛇口. Starch prices in some regions also had minor changes, with a 50 - yuan increase in Heilongjiang and a 30 - yuan increase in潍坊 [3]. - **Analysis**: Short - term supply tension is alleviated by reserve auctions, and the price has support before new crop listing. Starch has a weak short - term rebound and a bearish long - term outlook [4]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From July 24 - 30, the spot prices in柳州, Nanning, and Kunming remained stable, the base difference increased by 63, and the import profit and warehouse receipts changed [7]. - **Analysis**: International sugar price may rebound due to uncertain Brazilian production, and the domestic market has upward pressure from imported sugar [7]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From July 24 - 30, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 215 yuan, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 196 yuan [9]. - **Analysis**: Cotton price increase is driven by inventory reduction, but the upward trend needs verification, and consider month - spread arbitrage [9]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From July 24 - 30, egg prices in some regions were stable, and the base difference increased by 68 [14]. - **Analysis**: Spot price is in a seasonal upward channel, but high inventory and high存栏 may limit the rebound [14]. Apples - **Price Data**: From July 24 - 30, the spot price in Shandong remained 7800 yuan, and the national inventory decreased by 23 [16][17]. - **Analysis**: New - season output may be similar to last year, and consumption is in the off - season with slow de - stocking [17]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From July 24 - 30, pig prices in some regions changed slightly, and the base difference increased by 125 [17]. - **Analysis**: Long - term supply pressure remains, and the futures price needs spot verification [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions for various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil. It also presents important fundamental information on factors such as weather conditions, international and domestic supply - demand dynamics, and macroeconomic news. Additionally, it details the capital flow in the futures market and conducts arbitrage tracking [1][2][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - **Futures**: The closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts, such as BMD's October palm oil, ICE's October Brent crude, and NYMEX's September US crude oil, are presented. For example, BMD's October palm oil closed at 4259.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.54% and an overnight decrease of 0.42% [1]. - **Currencies**: The latest prices and price changes of multiple currencies, including the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc., are provided. For instance, the US dollar index was at 99.94, with an increase of 1.05% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - **Futures - Spot**: The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of various futures contracts, such as DCE's 2509 palm oil, 2509 soybean oil, and 2509 soybean meal, are given. For example, the spot price of DCE's 2509 palm oil in North China is 9110, with a basis of 130 and a basis change of 0 [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Weather Conditions in Producing Areas - **US Soybean Producing States**: The future weather outlook from August 4th to 8th shows that the temperature in the main soybean - producing states is high, and the precipitation in the northwest is higher than the average. The temperature in the Midwest planting belt is expected to drop, and the growth conditions are still relatively favorable [5][7]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From January to May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports to the US increased by 51.8% year - on - year, from 6.1 million tons in the same period last year to 9.3 million tons [9]. - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week ending July 24th, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 20 - 90 million tons, with 10 - 30 million tons for the 2024/25 season and 10 - 60 million tons for the 2025/26 season [10]. - **Argentine Soybean Sales**: As of July 23rd, Argentine farmers sold 78.77 million tons of 24/25 season soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 2743.16 million tons, and 4.3 million tons of 25/26 season soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 48.95 million tons [11]. - **Ukrainian Rapeseed**: As of July 25th, Ukrainian farmers have harvested about 100 million tons of rapeseed, lower than 330 million tons in the same period last year. The market has revised down the 2025 rapeseed production forecast to 240 - 250 million tons [12]. - **Baltic Dry Index**: On Wednesday, the Baltic Dry Index fell for the fourth consecutive day, reaching a two - week low, due to a decline in demand for all ship types [13]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - **Oil Product Transactions**: On July 30th, the total transaction volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 102,566 tons, a 108% increase from the previous trading day. The total transaction volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 30.49 million tons, a decrease of 13.05 million tons from the previous day [14]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The average weekly price of lean - type white - striped pork in 16 provinces (municipalities) from July 21st to July 25th, 2025, was 18.73 yuan per kilogram, a 2.2% week - on - week decrease and a 25.7% year - on - year decrease [14]. 3.4 Macroeconomic News 3.4.1 International News - **US Economic Data**: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 54.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 45.7%. US economic data such as ADP employment, GDP, and PCE price index are also presented [17]. - **FOMC Statement**: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, with two governors advocating for a rate cut [18]. - **Eurozone Economic Data**: The Eurozone's second - quarter GDP annual rate is 1.4%, and the industrial and economic sentiment indices in July are - 10.4 and 95.8 respectively [19]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - **Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy**: On July 30th, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.1441, down 70 points. The central bank conducted 309 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 158.5 billion yuan [21]. - **Housing Loan Interest Rate**: In the second quarter of 2025, the weighted average interest rate of newly issued commercial personal housing loans in China was 3.09% [21]. 3.5 Capital Flow On July 30th, 2025, the net inflow of funds in the futures market was 18.187 billion yuan, with 6.098 billion yuan in commodity futures (including 205 million yuan in agricultural product futures, 5.324 billion yuan in chemical futures, 131 million yuan in black - series futures, and 439 million yuan in metal futures) and 12.089 billion yuan in stock index futures [24]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking There is no detailed information on arbitrage tracking in the provided content.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver. The domestic soybean import cost is oscillating slightly upwards due to a single - supply source. The soybean meal market is a mix of long and short factors, and the price is expected to remain range - bound [3][5]. - The EPA policy, long - term B50 policy expectations, and limited palm oil supply in Southeast Asia have raised the annual operating center of the oil market. However, the significant year - on - year recovery of palm oil production in Southeast Asia still poses downward pressure [7]. - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price decreased, and the basis strengthened. With the increase in import supply and the expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season, the price is likely to continue to decline [11][12]. - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fall. The ongoing Sino - US trade talks have not produced a specific agreement, and the cotton market is short - term bearish [14][15]. - The egg price is expected to remain stable, with individual regions possibly seeing a slight increase. The near - month contract is oscillating, and the post - festival contracts after 09 are recommended for short - selling after a rebound [18][19]. - The domestic pig price is expected to rise slightly. The market is trading on the policy's intervention in capacity reduction, and the focus should be on the spread opportunities [21][22]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: The North American weather restricts the upside of US soybeans, and Sino - US trade talks have not provided positive news for US soybean exports. However, due to low valuation, it is expected to oscillate within a range. The domestic soybean meal price increased slightly, with good trading volume and high pick - up levels [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the soybean meal market, it is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure at the upper end. For arbitrage, focus on widening the spread of the soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract [5]. Oil - **Important Information**: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil showed different trends in different periods in June, and the production increased in July. Brazil exported $19 billion worth of soybeans to China from January to June, accounting for 74.6% of its total soybean exports [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fundamentals support the oil price center. The palm oil price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term and may rise in the fourth quarter. However, due to factors such as high - level production expectations, the upside is limited [9]. Sugar - **Key Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price dropped significantly, and the spot price remained stable. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil is expected to increase in the first half of July [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Given the increase in import supply and the expected increase in domestic planting area, the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fall, and the basis strengthened. Sino - US economic and trade talks were held, and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures was extended for 90 days [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: As the specific agreement has not been finalized and the downstream consumption is weak, the cotton market is short - term bearish [15]. Egg - **Spot Information**: The national egg price remained stable, with stable supply and good market circulation. It is expected to remain stable, with individual regions possibly seeing a slight increase [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The near - month contract oscillates, and the post - festival contracts after 09 are recommended for short - selling after a rebound [19]. Pig - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price remained stable with slight fluctuations in some areas. The reduction in the slaughter volume at the beginning of the month and the strong price - support sentiment among farmers are expected to drive the price up slightly [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is trading on policy intervention in capacity reduction. Attention should be paid to the spread opportunities [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Corn**: In the short - term, the price of spot and near - month contracts has strong support due to the supply - demand gap before the new crop is launched. In the long - term, potential increases in imports and lower new - season planting costs may put downward pressure on prices [1]. - **Starch**: Short - term prices are expected to have a weak rebound, while long - term prices are expected to be bearish due to high inventory and lower expected raw material costs [2]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are under pressure from Brazilian supply, but may rebound. Domestic sugar prices have upward pressure due to upcoming large imports [5]. - **Cotton**: After a rapid price increase, prices may decline due to low downstream profits and expected new - crop production increases [6]. - **Eggs**: Spot prices are in a seasonal upward trend, but high cold - storage egg inventory and high laying - hen存栏 may limit the increase [8]. - **Apples**: New - season production may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and spot prices are affected by seasonal fruits [11]. - **Pigs**: Spot prices are in a weak and volatile state. Long - term supply pressure remains, and futures need further spot verification [11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: Corn prices in different regions remained relatively stable from July 18 - 24, with some minor changes. Starch prices were also stable, and the processing profit was in a loss state [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Corn supply tension has been alleviated by auctions, but the supply - demand gap persists in the short - term. Starch prices follow raw material prices and are expected to be bearish in the long - term [1][2]. Sugar - **Price Data**: Sugar spot prices in different regions were mostly stable from July 18 - 24, with a 10 - yuan decrease in the Kunming price. The import profit and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [5]. - **Market Analysis**: International sugar prices are affected by Brazilian supply, and domestic prices are affected by imports [5]. Cotton - **Price Data**: The price of 3128 cotton decreased by 20 yuan from July 18 - 24, and the import profit and other data changed slightly [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Cotton prices may decline due to low downstream profits and expected new - crop production increases [6]. Eggs - **Price Data**: Egg spot prices in different regions increased from July 18 - 24, and the basis also increased [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Egg prices are in a seasonal upward trend, but high cold - storage inventory and high laying - hen存栏 may limit the increase [8]. Apples - **Price Data**: Apple spot prices in Shandong remained stable from July 18 - 24, and the basis decreased [10][11]. - **Market Analysis**: New - season production may not differ much from last year, and consumption is in the off - season [11]. Pigs - **Price Data**: Pig prices in different regions decreased from July 18 - 24, and the basis changed significantly [11]. - **Market Analysis**: Pig spot prices are in a weak and volatile state, and long - term supply pressure remains [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, and macro - economic news. It also covers international and domestic supply - demand situations for various agricultural products [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Market - Overnight prices and changes of various futures are presented, such as the closing price of BMD's October Malaysian palm oil at 4316.00 with a previous day's increase of 2.47%. Brent's September contract dropped 0.60% previously and 1.69% overnight [1]. - Currency exchange rates and their changes are also shown, like the US dollar index at 98.44 with a 0.20% decline [1]. 02 Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE's palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal futures in different regions are provided. For example, the spot price of DCE's 2509 palm oil in North China is 9000 with a basis of 100 and no change [2]. - Import soybean quotes include CNF premiums and CNF prices for different origins, such as Brazil's CNF premium of 260 cents per bushel and a CNF price of 473 dollars per ton [3]. 03 Important Fundamental Information -产区天气 - - US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - average temperatures and near - to above - normal precipitation from July 23 - 27. The Midwest will have an active rainfall system and rising temperatures, which is generally favorable for crops but may bring high - temperature stress to some areas [4][6]. - International Supply - Demand - - Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20 decreased 3.5% compared to the same period last month. The KPK is discussing land conversion from rubber to palm oil for smallholders to obtain MSPO certification [8][9]. - If Indonesia implements the B50 biodiesel blending policy, domestic palm oil consumption may surge by about 3 million tons [10]. - Nigeria plans to stabilize global crude palm oil prices and has increased production to 1.5 million tons [11]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area is estimated to increase, and the production is expected to reach 50.9 million tons [12]. - Canadian rapeseed exports increased, and the commercial inventory is 1.2049 million tons as of July 13 [13]. - Germany's 2025 winter rapeseed production for vegetable oil and biodiesel is expected to increase by 7.1% [14]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose, with different types of ships having different price and profit changes [14]. - Domestic Supply - Demand - - On July 18, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 13% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased [15]. - China's palm oil imports in June increased year - on - year, while soybean oil imports decreased. Rapeseed and mustard oil imports increased [15]. - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 29th week was 2.3055 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.81% [15]. 04 Macro News - International News - - The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in July was 61.8, higher than expected. US new - home starts and building permits in June also showed positive changes [18]. - The eurozone's May seasonally - adjusted current account surplus was 32.307 billion euros [18]. - Domestic News - - On July 18, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upward. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 10.28 billion yuan on that day and 120.11 billion yuan for the week [20]. 05 Capital Flow - On July 18, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 2.96 billion yuan, with a 2.187 billion yuan inflow in commodity futures and a 773 million yuan inflow in stock - index futures [23]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategies for both the soybean meal and corn sectors are cautiously bearish [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of the supply - demand report is minor and in line with market expectations. The weather in the main soybean - producing areas in the US is favorable, and the soybean growth is expected to remain good. In China, there is still pressure on the spot market, and future focus should be on the growth of new - season US soybeans and policy changes [3] - In the domestic corn market, there is an increase in supply, a lackluster demand, and changes in the market atmosphere due to import auctions [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data - Soybean Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2978 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.47%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2655 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.15%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2910 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2810 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2790 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton). In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2660 yuan/ton [1] - US Data: As of July 13, the US soybean good - excellent rate was 70%, the flowering rate was 47%, and the pod - setting rate was 15%. As of July 10, the US soybean export inspection volume was 14.70 tons. The 2024/25 US soybean export inspection volume was 4641 tons, a 10.4% year - on - year increase, reaching 91.4% of the annual export target [2] 2. Market News and Important Data - Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2295 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.30%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2641 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.23%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2740 yuan/ton [4] - US Data: As of July 13, the US corn good - excellent rate was 74%, the silking rate was 34%, and the wax - ripening rate was 7%. As of July 10, the US corn export inspection volume was 128.7 tons [4] 3. Market Analysis - Soybean Meal - The supply - demand report adjustment is small, in line with expectations. The US soybean good - excellent rate is high, and the weather is favorable. In China, there is spot pressure, and the soybean meal inventory is rising rapidly [3] 4. Market Analysis - Corn - In China, the supply of corn increases due to auctions and storage issues. The demand is weak as feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and the breeding season is off - peak. Import auctions show a change in market sentiment [5] 5. Strategy - For both soybean meal and corn, the strategy is cautiously bearish [4][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The July report indicates a downward adjustment in global corn, rice, and wheat production for 2025/2026, while soybean production is projected to increase [12] - The USDA's report highlights a reduction in corn production due to a decrease in harvested area in the United States, while an increase in soybean production is attributed to expanded harvested area in Ukraine [12][22] - The report also notes that wheat production is down due to reduced harvested areas in Russia and Mexico, as well as declines in Canada [34][35] - Rice production is expected to decrease due to a reduction in harvested area in the United States [51] Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - The global corn production for 2025/2026 is adjusted down by 2.32 million tons to 126.4 million tons, with a corresponding decrease in consumption [13] - The USDA forecasts a reduction in U.S. corn production to 39.9 million tons, down by 2.92 million tons from the previous report [13] Soybean - Global soybean production for 2025/2026 is projected to increase by 0.86 million tons to 42.8 million tons, with domestic consumption also rising [22] - The USDA reports an increase in soybean production in Ukraine, with an expected output of 7.6 million tons, up by 1 million tons from the previous forecast [22] Wheat - The global wheat production for 2025/2026 is adjusted down by 40,000 tons to 80.9 million tons, while consumption is expected to rise [34] - The report indicates that wheat production in Russia is projected to be 23 million tons, down by 1 million tons from the previous report due to farmers switching to other crops [35] Rice - Global rice production for 2025/2026 is adjusted down by 310,000 tons to 54.1 million tons, while consumption is expected to increase by 550,000 tons [51] - The USDA forecasts a decrease in U.S. rice production to 6.51 million tons, down by 300,000 tons from the previous report [51]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro news, and capital flow. It shows the performance of various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and their related products, as well as the impact of weather on soybean crops and international and domestic macro - economic factors on the market. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Market - Overnight closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts are presented, including palm oil, Brent crude, WTI crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. The US dollar index and exchange rates of multiple currencies are also provided [1]. 02 Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given [2]. - CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different origins are presented [3]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather and Crop Impact**: US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - normal rainfall and cooler temperatures in the future. The Midwest has continuous showers, which are generally beneficial for soybean growth [4][6]. - **International Supply and Demand**: BMI predicts that Malaysia's palm oil production will partially recover to 1.95 billion tons in 2025/26, while domestic consumption will decline. Indonesia transfers nearly 400,000 hectares of confiscated oil palm plantations. Analysts' forecasts for USDA reports on global and South American crop production, export sales, and EU rapeseed production are also provided [8][10][12]. - **Market Transactions**: On July 9, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased, while the trading volume of soybean meal decreased. The opening rate of oil mills declined. Agricultural product prices showed some fluctuations [13]. 04 Macro News - **International News**: The probability of the Fed maintaining or cutting interest rates in July and September is estimated. Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on Brazil. US economic data such as wholesale sales, mortgage application index, and EIA inventories are presented. Malaysia's central bank cuts interest rates [15]. - **Domestic News**: The US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate rises. The Chinese central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds. China's June CPI and PPI data are released, and the expected GDP scale for this year is mentioned [17]. 05 Capital Flow On July 9, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 19.597 billion yuan, with details of capital flow in different sectors such as commodity and stock index futures [20]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.