1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply of sugar remains abundant, with a likely downward trend in price. For the Zhengzhou sugar main contract 05, consider short - selling on rebounds [3]. - The pulp market is affected by the downstream off - season. Although the cost of warehouse receipts has increased, the pulp futures are under short - term pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [3][4]. - The cost support for double - offset paper has weakened, and the spot price is relatively stable. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with the basis, and it is advisable to try short - selling in the short term [5]. - The domestic cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and it is recommended to reduce long positions in the 05 contract [6]. - The apple futures price may continue to fluctuate in a high - level range, and it is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long at low prices [7]. - For the jujube 2605 contract, it is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points, and for long positions, consider buying protective put options. Cautious investors can hold a reverse spread of short 2605 and long 2609 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part - Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures** - Apple 2605: Reduce long positions. The supply side still has support, but the overall commodity sentiment is volatile recently, and it may show a volatile trend in the short term. Support range: 8800 - 8900, pressure range: 11000 - 11500 [16]. - Jujube 2605: Buy on dips in the short term. The expected production reduction may be gradually reflected in the distant months, and the spot inventory is starting to peak and decline. Support range: 8700 - 9000, pressure range: 9500 - 9800 [16]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - Sugar 2605: Short - sell on rebounds. The global sugar supply is still in surplus, and the domestic sugar supply is in the peak season, with overall sufficient supply. Support range: 5070 - 5100, pressure range: 5300 - 5320 [16]. - Pulp 2605: Allocate long positions lightly. The downstream finished paper is in the off - season, and there is a lack of new supply - side利多 recently. However, the US dollar quotation remains stable, and the cost of warehouse receipts may support the short - term price. Support range: 5200 - 5300, pressure range: 5450 - 5500 [16]. - Double - offset Paper 2605: Operate within a range. The spot market is stable, but demand has entered the off - season. In the short term, pay attention to the support after the futures price further declines and the basis widens. Support range: 4000 - 4100, pressure range: 4250 - 4300 [16]. - Cotton 2605: Reduce long positions. The long - term positive expectations still exist, and the medium - term support remains unchanged. However, the external market price is in a downward trend, and the internal - external price difference restricts the domestic price. The short - term futures price may fluctuate. Support range: 13500 - 13600, pressure range: 15400 - 15500 [16]. 3.2 Second Part - Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of February 5, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 5.6351 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 375,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 554,900 tons [17]. - **Spot Market**: The price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in Shandong is stable. The Spring Festival stocking is basically over, and the price will remain stable before the Spring Festival. The mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruits in Qixia is 3.0 - 3.5 yuan per catty. In Shaanxi, the mainstream price is stable, and the cold - storage trading is gradually decreasing. The mainstream price of 70 and above bagged Fuji in Luochuan is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty [17][18]. - **Jujube Market**: As of February 29, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,888 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.84%. Due to the scattered acquisition structure in the 2025 production season and the cautious market outlook for the new season after the Spring Festival, holders are more inclined to sell actively before the Spring Festival to reduce inventory pressure [20]. - **Sugar Market**: In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, as of the first half of January, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 345,000 tons. As of the week of February 3, 2026, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 210,289 contracts, showing strong bearish sentiment in the market [22]. - **Pulp Market**: Affected by the decline in futures prices and weakening demand for key resale products, the Chinese pulp market continues to weaken. The price of resale BSK has fallen, and the spot price of imported NBSK has also declined. However, the prices of Canadian and Nordic NBSK remain stable [26]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% week - on - week, and the decline rate narrowed. The start - up load rate was 57.43%, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points, and the growth rate also narrowed [27]. - **Cotton Market**: As of the end of January, the industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 1.001 million tons, an increase of 17,200 tons from the previous month. The intended cotton - planting area in 2026 is 46.479 million mu, a year - on - year decrease of 827,000 mu, a decrease of 1.7%. It is estimated that the total cotton output will be 7.275 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 452,000 tons, a decrease of 5.8% [28]. 3.3 Third Part - Market Review - **Futures Market Review** - Apple 2605: Closing price of 9517, a daily decrease of 18, a daily decline rate of 0.19%. - Jujube 2605: Closing price of 8725, a daily increase of 30, a daily increase rate of 0.35%. - Sugar 2605: Closing price of 5261, a daily increase of 33, a daily increase rate of 0.63%. - Pulp 2605: Closing price of 5200, a daily decrease of 34, a daily decline rate of 0.65%. - Cotton 2605: Closing price of 14580, no daily change [29]. - **Spot Market Review** - Apple: Spot price of 4.45 yuan per catty, no month - on - month change, a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan. - Jujube: Spot price of 9.40 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan. - Sugar: Spot price of 5310 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 640 yuan. - Pulp: Spot price of 5300 yuan (Shandong Yinxing), a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1400 yuan. - Double - offset Paper: Spot price of 4350 yuan (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin), no month - on - month change, a year - on - year decrease of 600 yuan. - Cotton: Spot price of 15967 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 58 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1150 yuan [33]. 3.4 Fourth Part - Basis Situation No specific text summary information provided, only figure references such as apple 5 - month basis, jujube main contract basis, etc. 3.5 Fifth Part - Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 5 - 10 spread: Current value of 1280, a month - on - month decrease of 38, a year - on - year increase of 1909, expected to be volatile and strong, recommended strategy: buy on dips. - Jujube 5 - 9 spread: Current value of - 240, a month - on - month decrease of 15, a year - on - year increase of 140, recommended strategy: wait and see. - Sugar 5 - 9 spread: Current value of - 13, a month - on - month decrease of 2, a year - on - year decrease of 133, expected to be volatile, recommended strategy: wait and see. - Cotton 5 - 9 spread: Current value of - 125, a month - on - month decrease of 5, a year - on - year increase of 40, expected to be volatile and weak, recommended strategy: short - sell on rallies [54]. 3.6 Sixth Part - Futures Positioning Situation No specific text summary information provided, only figure references for the top 20 long and short positions, trading volume changes, etc. of each variety. 3.7 Seventh Part - Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: 0 warehouse receipts, no month - on - month or year - on - year change. - Jujube: 3350 warehouse receipts, no month - on - month change, a year - on - year decrease of 722. - Sugar: 14461 warehouse receipts, a month - on - month increase of 87, a year - on - year decrease of 9667. - Pulp: 146447 warehouse receipts, no month - on - month change, a year - on - year decrease of 193040. - Cotton: 10580 warehouse receipts, a month - on - month increase of 5, a year - on - year increase of 3815 [87]. 3.8 Eighth Part - Option - related Data No specific text summary information provided, only figure references for option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, historical volatility, etc. of apple, sugar, and cotton.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the Spring Festival approaches, most varieties in the agricultural sector are volatile. Oils and fats, protein meals, corn, natural rubber, cotton, and pulp are expected to fluctuate, while live pigs and sugar prices are likely to be weak. Synthetic rubber is expected to be moderately strong, and logs are expected to be range - bound [1]. - The overall supply of oilseeds such as soybeans and rapeseeds is relatively loose, and palm oil is about to enter the destocking trend. The demand side should focus on biodiesel policies and export performance in the producing areas. Recently, the market has been intertwined with long and short factors, and oils and fats are expected to fluctuate [4]. - Near the Spring Festival, downstream stocking is basically completed, trading is light, and the protein meal market is expected to fluctuate [6]. - Near the Spring Festival, the trading of corn is light, and the price is expected to be weak. After the festival, attention should be paid to the rhythm of traders' delivery, restocking, and inventory building [8][9]. - The supply of live pigs is loose, and the price is weak. The downward cycle has not ended, but the industry's destocking process is blocked and needs further observation [10]. - The fundamentals of natural rubber are relatively weak, but the expectation is good. The market is expected to fluctuate due to increased capital attention [14]. - The improvement of the supply - demand pattern of butadiene is relatively certain, but it needs adjustment in the short term and is expected to be moderately strong in the medium term [17]. - Before the Spring Festival, cotton is expected to fluctuate. After the festival, the terminal demand is expected to pick up, and the price center of gravity is expected to rise [17]. - In the medium and long term, the sugar price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. The new sugar - making season is expected to have an oversupply in the global sugar market, and the price has a downward driving force [18]. - The pulp futures are still weak, and the spot market is difficult to improve before the Spring Festival. After the festival, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and it is expected to fluctuate [19]. - The double - gum paper market is expected to fluctuate weakly before the Spring Festival, and the market trading is expected to stagnate in mid - to late February. After the festival, attention should be paid to the resumption of work and production of downstream printing factories [21]. - The log market is expected to be range - bound. In the short term, there is no new driving force, and the fundamentals remain loose [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Oils and fats fluctuate narrowly. - **Information**: As of the end of the 6th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 1974,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 19,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.60%. - **Logic**: Near the Spring Festival, the market sentiment is wait - and - see, and the oils and fats fluctuate narrowly. The expectation of destocking of palm oil is weakening, and the soybean market is affected by trade negotiations and bio - diesel policies [4]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. 3.1.2 Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: The trading of double - meals is light, and the market fluctuates. - **Logic**: The market's expectation of China's increased procurement of US soybeans has cooled, and the supply peak of Brazilian soybeans is coming. In China, the oil mills are shutting down, and the logistics is stagnating. After the festival, the cost of imported soybeans is expected to decrease, and the spot and basis of soybean meal are expected to be weak [6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: Near the Spring Festival, the trading of corn is light, and the price is expected to be weak. - **Information**: The FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2340 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract is 2274 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. - **Logic**: Near the Spring Festival, the downstream stocking is coming to an end, and the trading is inactive. After the festival, the selling pressure may increase, and the demand is lackluster. The supply of substitute grains and imported grains may suppress the price of domestic corn [8][9]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The supply of live pigs is loose, and the price is weak. - **Price**: On February 9, the national average price of live pigs was 11.71 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85%. The closing price of live pig futures (active contract) was 11,565 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%. - **Logic**: In the short term, the slaughter is increasing. In the medium term, the supply will be excessive until April 2026. In the long term, the industry's destocking process is blocked. The demand is increasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be weak [10]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Before the Spring Festival, it is mainly range - bound. - **Information**: The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 15,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials in Thailand's Hoh Ai market has increased. - **Logic**: The rubber price has increased slightly, maintaining a range - bound trend. The fundamentals are weak, but the expectation is good. The supply is abundant, and the demand is supported by tire enterprises' procurement, but the inventory is increasing rapidly [12][14]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to fluctuate. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the short - term support strength. - **Information**: The spot price of butadiene rubber has decreased, and the domestic spot price of butadiene has increased. - **Logic**: The BR market first rose and then fell, and the support at the 12,500 yuan/ton mark is strong. The supply of butadiene is expected to be tight in the first half of 2026, and the market sentiment affects the price, but the downside space is limited [16][17]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be moderately strong in the medium term. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: It is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival. - **Information**: On February 6, the closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 05 contract was 14,580 yuan/ton. - **Logic**: The processing and inspection of new cotton are coming to an end, and the demand is improving, but the textile factories are shutting down for the holiday. The market risk preference is decreasing, and the macro - sentiment is weakening. After the festival, the demand is expected to pick up [17]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be moderately strong in the medium and long term. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar production in Brazil has entered the end, and the sugar price is expected to be weakly volatile in the medium and long term. - **Information**: On February 9, the closing price of Zhengzhou Sugar 05 contract was 5261 yuan/ton. As of the first half of January in the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar production in central and southern Brazil was 40.236 million tons, an increase of 345,000 tons year - on - year. - **Logic**: In the medium and long term, the sugar price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. The global sugar market is expected to have an oversupply in the new sugar - making season, and the supply of major producing countries is expected to increase [18]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The pulp futures are still weak, and the spot market is difficult to improve before the Spring Festival. - **Information**: The price of coniferous pulp in Shandong has not changed. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the terminal and downstream are on holiday. After the festival, the demand is expected to recover seasonally. The bottom support of the pulp futures has weakened, and the downside space is limited [19]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to fluctuate. 3.1.10 Double - Gum Paper - **Viewpoint**: The double - gum paper market fluctuates narrowly at a low level. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the trading is expected to decrease, and the market is stable. In February, the number of enterprises choosing to shut down for maintenance may increase, and the market trading is expected to stagnate in mid - to late February. After the festival, attention should be paid to the resumption of work and production of downstream printing factories [21]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be weakly volatile. 3.1.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: The log market is weak. - **Logic**: The log market is affected by the suspension of delivery warehouses, but the fundamentals are loose. The valuation has increased, and the supply has decreased in the short term, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the medium term [23]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be range - bound. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring There is no specific data monitoring content provided in the report. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on February 9, 2026. - **Characteristic Index**: The commodity index increased by 0.70% to 2374.89, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.96% to 2710.51, the industrial products index increased by 0.21% to 2278.80, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.58% to 1404.35 [183]. - **Sector Index**: The agricultural product index on February 9, 2026 was 927.90, with a daily decline of 0.19%, a 5 - day decline of 0.56%, a 1 - month decline of 1.67%, and a year - to - date decline of 0.55% [184].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 --- 2020 =----- 2021 =----- 2022 =----- 2023 =----- 2024 =-- ----- 2021 =---- 2022 =----- 2023 =----- 2024 - 2026 - 2025 2026 2025 1 20 18 15 120 90 60 30 04/04 05/05 06/05 07/06 08/06 09/06 10/07 11/07 12/08 01/01 02/01 03/04 04/04 05/05 06/05 07/06 08/06 09/06 10/07 11/07 12/08 02/01 03/04 01/01 全国主要油厂开机率(%) 全国主要油厂大豆压榨量(万吨) == ------ 2020 ----- 2021 ------ 2022 ------ 2023 ----- 2024 · 2026 2025 2026 2025 2.90 1 00 200 80 开机和压榨情况 60 150 100 40 50 20 01/01 02/01 03/04 04/04 05/05 06/ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of Brazilian soybeans is expected to be sufficient, but logistics congestion may cause the selling pressure on Brazilian soybean discounts to be postponed. The production of Argentine soybeans may be affected by dry conditions, but rainfall is expected to recover in the next two weeks. [10] - The demand for soymeal shows a seasonal decline. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising in the pig industry has turned positive, with high pig inventory and slow capacity reduction. The far - month demand for soymeal is expected to shrink under the influence of capacity adjustment and policy control. [10] - Domestic soybeans and soymeal are in a seasonal de - stocking period, and the current inventory is still at a high level. The number of days of soymeal inventory in feed enterprises has increased. [10] - In the short term, the unilateral price of soymeal is expected to have limited rebound and will maintain a weak and volatile trend later. The domestic supply - demand situation in the first quarter is expected to be loose, the spot basis is expected to weaken, and M3 - M5 is expected to show a reverse spread. [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Spot Basis Data - On January 30th, the basis of 43% soymeal spot in Dalian was 453, up 15; in Rizhao and Zhangjiagang it was 373, up 15; in Tianjin it was 413, up 35; in Dongguan it was 353, up 35; in Zhanjiang it was 383, up 35; in Fangcheng it was 373. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 105, down 42. [4] - M3 - M2 was 294, unchanged; RM5 - 9 was - 19, down 11. [4] b. Inventory Data - Domestic soybeans and soymeal are in a seasonal de - stocking period, but the current inventory is still at a high level, and the number of days of soymeal inventory in feed enterprises has increased. [10] c. International Supply Data - As of January 24th, the harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 6.6%, up 2.3% from last week and 3.2% faster than the same period last year. The pre - sale progress of new Brazilian soybeans is about 31%, slower than the same period last year. The USDA estimates the Brazilian soybean output in the 2025/26 season to reach 178 million tons. [10] - As of January 21st, the proportion of good - rated soybeans in Argentina in the 2025/26 season was 38% (last week's value was 61%, last year's same - period value was 26%), and rainfall is expected to recover in the next two weeks. [10] d. Domestic Demand Data - The profit of self - breeding and self - raising in the pig industry has turned positive, with high pig inventory and slow capacity reduction. Under the influence of capacity adjustment and policy control, the far - month demand for soymeal is expected to shrink. The pre - holiday procurement of soymeal is over, the far - month trading volume has increased, and the delivery performance is good. [10]

研究所 农产品研发报告 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c 粕类日报 2026 年 1 月 29 日 【粕类日报】扰动因素增加 粕类继续偏强 研究员：陈界正 om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2026/1/29 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 2933 | 1 2 | 天津 | 380 | 390 | -10 -10 | | 东莞 | 0 5 | 2802 | 2 0 | | 290 | 300 | | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 2888 | 7 | | 280 | 290 | -10 | | | | | | 日照 | 290 | 300 | -10 | | 南通 | 0 1 | 2252 | 1 6 | | 205 | 233 | - ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The global market for soybeans has a relatively loose supply-demand situation, so there may still be pressure on overall prices [4][5]. - The domestic soybean meal market has shown some stability after a continuous decline, and the rapeseed meal market has a relatively strong trend, but there may be greater pressure after the supply recovers [3]. - The price of Brazilian soybeans is expected to face pressure in the medium term, and the price of rapeseed meal is expected to move downward [5][7]. - The trading strategy suggests a bearish approach for single - sided trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and a short straddle strategy for options [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Quotes - Futures prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal generally declined. For example, the 01 soybean meal contract closed at 2895, down 8; the 01 rapeseed meal contract closed at 2208, down 9 [3]. - The spot basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions mostly increased. For example, the spot basis of 01 soybean meal in Tianjin increased from 440 to 450 [3]. - The inter - monthly spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends. The near - month inter - monthly spread of soybean meal decreased, while that of rapeseed meal was relatively strong [3]. - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, and the oil - meal ratio increased [3]. 2. Fundamental Analysis International Market - The U.S. soybean carry - over inventory was raised to 350 million bushels, higher than the market estimate of 292 million bushels. The quarterly grain inventory data was also bearish [4]. - Brazil's new soybean crop is growing well, and exports are expected to increase significantly. The old crop has good export and crushing performance [4]. - Argentina's old soybean crop has a relatively large yield, and recent crushing and exports have increased significantly [4]. Domestic Market - The domestic soybean meal market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The oil mill operating rate increased, and the market supply was sufficient. As of January 16, the actual soybean crushing volume was 1.9942 million tons, and the operating rate was 54.86% [6]. - The domestic rapeseed meal market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The demand has gradually weakened, the oil mill operation has basically stopped, and the rapeseed supply is at a low level [6]. 3. Logical Analysis - The U.S. soybean market has large inventory pressure, but the downward speed may slow down due to improved demand. It is expected to move downward in a volatile manner [7]. - Brazil's soybean price is expected to face pressure, and South American quotes have started to decline [7]. - The domestic soybean supply has uncertainty, and the spot market shows some support. However, the upward space is limited [7]. - The rapeseed meal market is expected to move downward, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to expand [7]. 4. Trading Strategy - Single - sided trading: Adopt a bearish approach [8]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8]. - Options: Use a short straddle strategy [8]. 5. Soybean Pressing Profit - The pressing profit from Brazilian soybeans in different shipping months showed different changes. For example, the pressing profit in March decreased by 13.17 compared with the previous day [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [3][5]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to experience upward price trends, particularly in beef and dairy, while grain prices are stabilizing at historical lows [1][3][5]. - The supply-demand dynamics for corn and soybeans remain loose, with global ending stocks projected to increase, while domestic prices are expected to find strong support at current low levels [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - The USDA January supply and demand report forecasts a global corn production increase of 13.05 million tons (approximately +1.02%) to 1.283 billion tons for the 25/26 season, with a corresponding increase in the global ending stocks-to-use ratio by 0.86 percentage points to 22.38% [15][16]. - Domestic corn prices are currently at a historical low, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.04% and a year-on-year increase of 10.30% [18]. Soybeans - The USDA report indicates a global soybean production increase of 3.14 million tons, with ending stocks projected to rise by 2.04 million tons (approximately +1.67%) to 124 million tons for the 25/26 season [33][34]. - Short-term support for soybean prices is expected from import costs, while long-term trends are anticipated to improve as Brazilian soybeans come to market [35]. Wheat - The USDA report predicts a global wheat production increase of 4.36 million tons (approximately +0.52%) for the 25/26 season, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio increasing by 0.37 percentage points to 33.77% [47][48]. - Domestic wheat prices are expected to stabilize at low levels, with current prices at 2,515 yuan per ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.15% [50]. Beef - The USDA forecasts a decrease in U.S. beef production for 2026, with prices expected to rise by approximately 5.1% year-on-year [3][19]. - Domestic beef prices are anticipated to maintain an upward trend due to reduced production capacity and lower imports [3][19]. Dairy - The USDA predicts a slight reduction in U.S. milk ending stocks, with prices expected to remain favorable due to a contraction in domestic dairy cow capacity [3][24]. - The interplay between meat and dairy sectors is expected to drive a recovery in dairy prices [3][24]. Pork - The USDA projects a 2.69% increase in U.S. pork production for 2026, with prices expected to remain stable at high levels [4][28]. - Domestic breeding sow capacity is being managed to support industry profitability [4][29]. Poultry - U.S. chicken production is expected to recover, with prices projected to perform well due to improved consumer demand [6][30]. - Domestic egg supply is anticipated to be ample, with a year-on-year increase in ending stocks by 23.5% [6][33]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include leading companies in the livestock, pork, poultry, and pet sectors, such as YouRan Agriculture and MuYuan [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [1][3]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the beef prices in the US are expected to maintain an upward trend in 2026, while global corn and soybean ending stocks for the 25/26 season are projected to increase [1][3]. - The agricultural products in the planting chain are currently in a bottom consolidation phase, awaiting upward movement [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - The USDA's January supply and demand report forecasts a global corn production increase of 13.05 million tons (approximately +1.02%) to 1.283 billion tons for the 25/26 season, with a corresponding increase in global ending stocks [15][16]. - The ending stocks-to-use ratio is expected to rise by 0.86 percentage points to 22.38%, with China's ratio increasing by 1.94 percentage points [15][17]. - Domestic corn prices are at historical lows, with a current price of 2318 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.04% and a year-on-year increase of 10.30% [18]. Soybeans - The USDA report predicts a global soybean production increase of 3.14 million tons for the 25/26 season, with ending stocks projected to rise by 2.04 million tons (approximately +1.67%) to 124 million tons [33][34]. - The ending stocks-to-use ratio is expected to increase by 0.39 percentage points to 29.40% [33][34]. - Short-term focus is on South American weather, while long-term trends are expected to improve due to reduced domestic soybean stocks and strong import support [35][37]. Wheat - The USDA's January report indicates a global wheat production increase of 4.36 million tons (approximately +0.52%) for the 25/26 season, with ending stocks projected to rise by 3.38 million tons [47][48]. - The ending stocks-to-use ratio is expected to increase by 0.37 percentage points to 33.77% [47][48]. - Domestic wheat prices are currently at 2515 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.15% [50][52]. Beef - The USDA forecasts a decrease in US beef production for 2026, with an expected overall price increase of approximately 5.1% [3][19]. - The report anticipates that domestic beef prices will maintain a bottoming upward trend due to reduced production capacity and import constraints [3][22]. Dairy - The report notes a slight decrease in US milk ending stocks for 2026, with expectations for domestic raw milk prices to begin an upward trend due to reduced production capacity and import reductions [3][24][26]. Pork - The USDA predicts a 2.69% increase in US pork production for 2026, with overall prices expected to remain high [4][28]. - Domestic breeding sow capacity is being steadily controlled, which is expected to support industry profitability [4][29]. Poultry - The report indicates that US chicken supply is expected to recover, with a slight increase in production and consumption [6][30]. - Domestic egg supply is projected to remain ample, with a year-on-year increase in ending stocks by 23.5% [6][33][34]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the livestock, pork, poultry, and pet sectors, including YouRan Agriculture, Modern Agriculture, and MuYuan Co., among others [6][8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market - A" [6] Core Insights - The report highlights that the consumption peak for pork has not yet arrived, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of hog slaughtering by producers, which impacts pork prices [22][23] - The white feather broiler market is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with chick prices significantly lower due to insufficient parent stock and market pressures [34] - The aquaculture sector shows stable prices, with potential investment opportunities identified [41] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The agricultural sector experienced a decline of 3.27% this week, ranking 29th among the primary industries [14] - The animal health sector saw a notable increase, with a rise of 1.19% [17] 2. Industry Data Tracking 2.1. Swine Farming - The average price of live pigs is 12.69 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.60% and a two-week increase of 1.57% [21] - The average price of piglets is 425 CNY/head, with a week-on-week increase of 17.08% [21] - Daily average slaughter volume is 223,400 pigs, showing a week-on-week decrease of 1.27% [22] 2.2. Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather broilers is 7.59 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.65% [34] - Chick prices have dropped to 2.74 CNY/bird, reflecting a significant week-on-week decrease of 23.68% [34] 2.3. Planting Sector - The average price of corn is 2359.57 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.26% [38] - The average price of domestic wheat is 2513.57 CNY/ton, remaining unchanged [38] 2.4. Aquaculture Sector - Prices for various aquatic products remain stable, with carp at 20.00 CNY/kg and crab at 260.00 CNY/kg, both showing no week-on-week change [41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Oils and Fats**: The global soybean harvest is expected to be abundant, and China's domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to decline. The inventory of soybean oil in coastal oil mills is in a seasonal de - stocking channel, but the absolute level is still higher than the historical average. The price of soybean oil futures Y2605 is expected to range from 7,900 to 8,200 yuan/ton, showing a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Palm oil has strong support below 8,500 yuan due to production decline and export improvement in Malaysia. The Indonesian B50 policy suspension is a short - term negative, and the policy of confiscating illegal plantations may tighten long - term supply. For rapeseed oil, the market expects the Sino - Canadian trade relationship to ease, and attention should be paid to whether there are official signals of tariff adjustment [8][9]. - **Corn**: The supply side is affected by factors such as farmers' selling intentions and port inventory. The demand side includes feed and deep - processing demand. Overall, the supply - demand relationship may remain tight, and the spot price is expected to be strong. The futures price of the 2603 contract may also follow the spot price and be strong [77][78]. - **Pigs**: The supply side shows that the pig出栏 is expected to increase slightly in the short - to - medium term, and the second - fattening pen utilization rate is relatively high. The demand side shows that the second - fattening is on the sidelines, and the terminal consumption and slaughter volume have decreased. The spot price is expected to fluctuate, and the futures price is affected by factors such as supply increase and second - fattening pressure [129]. - **Soybean Meal**: The USDA January report is bearish for US soybeans, with increased ending stocks. The Brazilian soybean harvest is expected to be abundant, putting pressure on the market. The domestic 03 contract of soybean meal may be affected by the import soybean auction, while the 05 contract is under pressure due to the approaching Brazilian soybean arrival [134][135]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs has been rising due to factors such as decreased laying hen inventory and seasonal demand. However, the de - capacity process is tortuous, and it is recommended to reduce long positions and operate in a rolling manner after the upward momentum weakens [173]. - **Cotton**: The USDA monthly report is relatively positive for the global cotton market. The domestic cotton market is in a wide - range volatile adjustment stage in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term trend is still positive. Attention should be paid to factors such as the actual decline in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in the 2026/27 season [200][201]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats 3.1.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of various oil contracts showed different degrees of increase. The USDA's soybean production data was higher than expected, and China's continuous purchase of US soybeans provided some support to the market, but the upcoming Brazilian harvest may weaken China's demand for US soybeans [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The price of soybean oil futures Y2605 is expected to range from 7,900 to 8,200 yuan/ton, with a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Palm oil has support below 8,500 yuan, and attention should be paid to the policy changes in Indonesia and the Sino - Canadian trade relationship for rapeseed oil [8][9]. 3.1.2 Core Points - **Domestic Spot Changes**: As of January 16, 2025, the prices of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil in different regions showed varying degrees of increase, and the basis also changed accordingly [10]. - **Domestic Three - Major Oil Inventories**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.1417 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 104,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.67%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.76% [17]. - **Domestic Oilseed Supply**: The soybean opening rate of domestic oil mills increased, and the soybean crushing volume also increased. The inventory of imported soybeans in ports was relatively high, and the estimated arrival volume in January was about 7.597 million tons. The opening rate of imported rapeseed processing enterprises was almost stagnant, and the inventory of imported rapeseed in ports was about 120,000 tons [22][27][28]. - **Palm Oil Dynamics**: In January, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased, and the export volume increased. Indonesia's B50 policy was postponed, and Malaysia's palm oil production and inventory were expected to change in 2026 [30][31]. - **CFTC Positions**: Speculative funds continued to reduce net long positions in soybeans for the fifth week, net - bought Chicago soybean oil for the first time in five weeks, and continued to net - sell Chicago soybean meal for the sixth week [41]. Corn 3.2.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The corn prices in the north port, northeast production area, and sales area increased, while the prices in the north China region continued to fluctuate. The increase in prices did not reduce the demand, and the downstream was in the pre - Spring Festival stocking period [44]. - **Futures Market**: As of January 15, the main 2603 contract of Dalian corn closed at 2,295 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 29 yuan/ton, or 1.26% [44]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Corn Supply**: The grain - selling progress was average, with the northeast being faster than the same period last year and the north China and northwest being slower. The port inventory decreased [46][47][49]. - **Domestic Substitutes**: The supply of wheat was stable, but the feed substitution demand was weak due to the lack of price advantage [50]. - **Imported Substitute Grains**: In November, the import of some grains increased, and the import of corn and other grains showed different trends. The import profit of Brazilian corn was relatively high, and the import volume may continue to increase in the future [52][62]. - **Feed Demand**: In November 2025, the national industrial feed output decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The feed enterprises' inventory increased, and the pig inventory was expected to drive the feed demand to be good [63][69]. - **Deep - Processing Demand**: The corn starch industry's opening rate decreased, and the production profit was in a loss state. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased slightly, and there was still a certain demand for inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival [71][72]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, China's corn planting area, yield, and total output increased, and the consumption also increased. The market supply and demand were relatively tight, and the price had strong support [75][76]. 3.2.3 Later Outlook and Strategy - **Viewpoint**: The supply side may see a slight acceleration in the grain - selling rhythm before the Spring Festival, and the port inventory is still low. The substitute grains' import advantage is increasing. The demand side has a demand for inventory replenishment, but the profit of the breeding and deep - processing industries is not good. The overall supply - demand relationship is tight, and the spot and futures prices are expected to be strong [77][78]. - **Strategy**: Spot enterprises should replenish inventory appropriately, and futures investors should hold long positions [79]. Pigs 3.3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The pig price continued to rise this week, with the supply side showing pressure - barring and weight - gaining, and the demand side having limited increase in slaughter volume due to high purchase costs [81]. - **Futures Market**: As of Thursday, the main contract LH2603 of pig futures fluctuated and rose, with a closing price of 11,950 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 230 yuan/ton, or 2% [82]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Overview - **Long - Term Supply**: The price of binary sows increased slightly, and the replenishment enthusiasm was average. The theoretical pig出栏 is expected to change according to the sow inventory data [89][90][93]. - **Medium - Term Supply**: The price of piglets increased, and the inventory decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The theoretical pig出栏 is expected to change in the medium term [102][103]. - **Short - Term Supply**: The large - pig inventory decreased, and the proportion of large - pig inventory increased due to pressure - barring and second - fattening. The utilization rate of fattening pens increased [105][106]. - **Current Supply**: The actual pig出栏 in December was close to the plan, and the planned出栏 in January decreased. The average slaughter weight increased slightly [113][114]. - **Import Supply**: In November, the pork import volume decreased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the cumulative import volume from January to November also decreased [120]. - **Second - Fattening Demand**: The second - fattening showed sporadic entry, and the cost increased with the rising pig price [122]. - **Slaughter Demand**: The slaughter enterprise's opening rate decreased, and the slaughter volume increased year - on - year in November. The opening rate is expected to remain weakly volatile [126]. 3.3.3 Later Outlook - **Viewpoint**: The supply side is expected to have a slight increase in pig出栏, and the second - fattening pressure is still high. The demand side shows that the second - fattening is on the sidelines, and the terminal consumption and slaughter volume have decreased. The spot price is expected to fluctuate, and the futures price is affected by factors such as supply increase and second - fattening pressure [129]. - **Strategy**: Futures investors should wait and see, and breeding enterprises should reduce hedging short positions with the出栏 [130]. Soybean Meal 3.4.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: As of January 16, the coastal soybean meal price was slightly weaker than a week ago [133]. - **Futures Market**: The US soybean main contract was weak this week. The USDA January report was bearish, and the Brazilian soybean harvest was expected to be abundant. The domestic 03 contract of soybean meal may be affected by the import soybean auction, while the 05 contract is under pressure due to the approaching Brazilian soybean arrival [134][135]. 3.4.2 Core Points - **Soybean Planting**: The USDA January report showed that the US soybean planting area decreased, the yield remained high, and the ending inventory increased. The Brazilian soybean planting was basically completed, and the Argentine soybean planting rate was 93.9%. The weather in Brazil was relatively normal, while the rainfall in Argentina was insufficient [136][137][138]. - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week of January 8, the US soybean export volume increased, and the net sales also increased. The US - China trade agreement may affect future soybean purchases [146]. - **Domestic Soybean Import and Pressing**: The pressing profit of imported soybeans varied. The soybean pressing volume and opening rate decreased, and the soybean import volume and inventory changed. The future import soybean arrival will enter a relatively off - season [153][154][156]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction and Inventory**: The soybean meal inventory decreased, and the transaction volume increased this week due to the potential risk of soybean shortage at the end of the first quarter [160][163]. - **Basis and Inter - Month Spread**: The basis of the 05 contract of soybean meal increased, and the 3 - 5 spread continued to widen [164]. - **Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 15, 2026, the domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts were at a relatively high level in the same period of history [170]. Eggs 3.5.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The egg spot price has been rising since late December, mainly due to the decrease in laying hen inventory and seasonal demand. The price increase is expected to be higher than expected, but the de - capacity process is tortuous [173]. - **Operation Suggestions**: If the spot price maintains the current trend, the futures price may rebound, but it is recommended to reduce long positions and operate in a rolling manner after the upward momentum weakens [173]. 3.5.2 Data Summary - **Inventory and Replenishment**: The laying hen inventory is at a high level in the same period of history but is gradually decreasing. The replenishment momentum is weak, and the future laying hen inventory is likely to further decrease [174][176]. - **Cost, Income, and Breeding Profit**: The egg price increased, the feed cost was at a medium level, the egg - chick price was at a medium - low level, and the breeding profit was at a low level but improved [179]. - **Culled Hens**: The culling volume decreased, the culling age was delayed slightly, and the culled hen price increased but was still at a low level compared with the same period last year [184]. - **Demand, Inventory, and Pig Price**: The egg sales volume was at a low level in the same period of history, the inventory was relatively high, and the pig price was at a low level in the same period of history [190]. Cotton 3.6.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The external market showed a slight recovery, and Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated widely. The macro - economic situation and domestic policies had an impact on the market. The domestic spot market had different trading situations, and the overseas market's supply - demand contradiction was not prominent [198][199][200]. - **Operation Suggestions**: In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton enters a wide - range volatile adjustment stage, and the medium - to - long - term trend is still positive [200][201]. 3.6.2 Core Points - **Cotton - Producing Countries' Situation**: The USDA January supply - demand report adjusted the global cotton supply - demand situation, with a decrease in beginning inventory, production, and ending inventory, and an increase in trade volume and consumption [202]. - **US Cotton Exports**: As of the week of January 8, the US cotton net signing and shipment volume changed, and the signing progress was lower than the same period last year and the five - year average [208]. - **Textile Enterprises' Operation**: The cotton inventory, yarn inventory, and fabric inventory of textile enterprises increased, and the yarn and fabric load indexes changed slightly [211]. - **Basis and Inter - Month Spread**: The spot basis of cotton increased, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased [223]. - **CFTC Positions and Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The non - commercial net position of cotton increased, and the domestic cotton registered warehouse receipts increased [225].