Core Viewpoint - Nvidia and AMD have reached an unusual agreement with the U.S. government to pay 15% of their sales revenue from the Chinese market, which is considered unprecedented [1] Group 1: Agreement Details - The agreement involves Nvidia and AMD agreeing to pay a percentage of their revenue from sales in China to the U.S. government [1] - This arrangement is seen as a potential shift towards a "pay-to-play" framework, raising concerns among U.S. lawmakers [1] Group 2: Legal and Economic Implications - There are questions regarding the legality of this policy, as the U.S. Constitution prohibits Congress from imposing taxes on goods exported from any state [1] - Analysts predict that this fee could compress profit margins for chip manufacturers, with Bernstein analysts estimating a decline in processor gross margins by 5 to 15 percentage points for exports to China [1] - Overall gross margins for Nvidia and AMD may decrease by approximately 1 percentage point due to this agreement [1]

● 新华社北京8月12日电 商务部新闻发言人12日表示，根据出口管制相关法律法规规定，商务部于2025年4月4日和9日分别发布 了第21号和22号公告，将28家美国实体列入出口管制管控名单，禁止向其出口两用物项。为落实中美经 贸高层会谈共识，决定自2025年8月12日起，对于2025年4月4日被列入出口管制管控名单的16家美国实 体，继续暂停上述相关措施90天；对于2025年4月9日被列入出口管制管控名单的12家美国实体，停止执 行相关措施。 有记者问：我们注意到，中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明提到中方将采取或者维持必要措施，暂停或 取消针对美国的非关税反制措施。请问在出口管制管控名单方面有何考虑？商务部新闻发言人作出上述 回应。 发言人说，出口经营者如需向上述实体出口两用物项，应当根据《中华人民共和国两用物项出口管制条 例》相关规定向商务部提出申请；商务部将依法依规进行审查，符合规定的将准予许可。 ...

（文章来源：新华社） 问：我们注意到，中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明提到中方将采取或者维持必要措施，暂停或取消针 对美国的非关税反制措施。请问在出口管制管控名单方面有何考虑？ 答：根据出口管制相关法律法规规定，商务部于2025年4月4日和9日分别发布了第21号和22号公告，将 28家美国实体列入出口管制管控名单，禁止向其出口两用物项。为落实中美经贸高层会谈共识，决定自 2025年8月12日起，对于2025年4月4日被列入出口管制管控名单的16家美国实体，继续暂停上述相关措 施90天；对于2025年4月9日被列入出口管制管控名单的12家美国实体，停止执行相关措施。出口经营者 如需向上述实体出口两用物项，应当根据《中华人民共和国两用物项出口管制条例》相关规定向商务部 提出申请；商务部将依法依规进行审查，符合规定的将准予许可。 商务部新闻发言人就出口管制管控名单答记者问 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a unique agreement between U.S. chip manufacturers Nvidia and AMD with the Trump administration, where both companies will pay 15% of their chip sales revenue from China to the U.S. government in exchange for export licenses [1][3]. Group 1: Agreement Details - Nvidia will pay 15% of its revenue from H20 chip sales in China, while AMD will do the same for its MI308 chip [3]. - This financial arrangement was made to secure export licenses from the U.S. government for products sold to China [3]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce has begun issuing export licenses to these companies for the Chinese market [3]. Group 2: Company Responses - Nvidia stated that it complies with U.S. government rules for participating in the global market and will continue to serve as many customers as possible within those rules [5]. - AMD has not yet responded to the agreement [5]. Group 3: Context and Implications - The practice of requiring companies to pay a portion of their revenue for export licenses is unprecedented [7]. - This approach aligns with the Trump administration's strategy of demanding specific actions from companies, such as investing in the U.S. in exchange for benefits like tariff exemptions [7].

《金融时报》报道称，据美国一名不愿意透露姓名的官员透露的消息，根据协议，英伟达将上 缴其H20芯片在中国销售收入的15%，AMD也同意上缴MI308芯片相同比例的销售收入。包括 一名美国官员在内的知情人士对该报透露，为获得美国政府授予的对华出口许可证，这两家公 司同意了上述财务安排。知情人士表示，特朗普政府尚未决定如何使用这笔资金。 据悉美国商务部已开始对上述企业发放面向中国市场的出口许可证。 对此，英伟达回应称，我们遵守美国政府为我们参与全球市场所制定的规则，将继续在规则范 围内为尽可能多的客户提供服务。而AMD方面尚未作出任何回应。 来源丨央视新闻 编辑丨金珊 SFC 《金融时报》报道称， 这种向企业索要部分收入来换出口许可证的做法是前所未有的 。出口 管制专家表示，虽然美国政府之前从未有过这种安排，但符合特朗普政府的模式，即总统要求 企业采取特定举措，例如在美国投资，以换取关税豁免，从而达到他所谓的为美国带来就业机 会和财政收入的目的。 央视新闻最新消息，当地时间8月11日，据《金融时报》披露，为了获得芯片出口许可证，美 国芯片制造商英伟达公司和AMD，与特朗普政府达成了一项特殊协议， 两家企业同意将特 ...

据《华尔街日报》报道，AMD未回应置评请求。英伟达在一份声明中表示，"我们遵守美国政府为我们参与全球市场制定的规则"，"虽然已有数 月未向中国发货H20，但我们希望出口管制规则能让美国在中国和世界范围内参与竞争"。 【环球时报报道 记者 倪浩】英国《金融时报》11日援引知情人士的消息报道称，为取得对中国市场的半导体出口许可，英伟达公司和超威半导体 公司（AMD）已与美国政府达成一项非同寻常的协议，同意将在中国市场销售收入的15%上交给美国政府，这种交换条件被认为是"前所未 有"的。复旦大学美国研究中心副主任宋国友告诉《环球时报》记者，这是本届美国政府深涉企业业务经营的又一表现，一系列相关行为将不可避 免地冲击美国所谓自由市场经济秩序，损害市场交易规则，也让与美国打交道的外国企业越来越感受到美国营商环境的不确定性，并极大地增加 了市场成本。 报道援引包括一名美国官员在内的知情人士的话称，这两家芯片制造商接受了这一财务安排，作为上周获得中国市场出口许可的条件。英伟达同 意交出H20芯片在中国销售收入的15%，AMD也将从其MI308芯片的收入中提供相同比例给美国政府。两名知情人士称，特朗普政府尚未决定如 何使用这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented arrangement between Nvidia and AMD to pay 15% of their sales revenue from chip sales in China to the U.S. government marks a significant shift in U.S. export control policies [1][3][5]. Group 1: Export License Conditions - Nvidia and AMD have received export licenses to sell chips in China, contingent upon paying 15% of their sales revenue to the U.S. government [3][6]. - Nvidia is expected to generate approximately $23 billion in revenue from selling around 1.5 million H20 chips in China by 2025, which could result in over $3 billion in payments to the U.S. government [3]. Group 2: Implications of the Arrangement - This arrangement is seen as a new phase in the trade war, with analysts highlighting its significance as it involves revenue sharing rather than profit sharing [5]. - The U.S. government is negotiating "trade agreements" on a company-by-company basis, indicating a more tailored approach to trade relations [5]. Group 3: Government Stance and Reactions - The U.S. Commerce Department has begun issuing export licenses for H20 chips, coinciding with a meeting between Nvidia's CEO and former President Trump [6]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has expressed concerns over U.S. export controls, emphasizing the need for cooperation and a stable semiconductor supply chain [7]. Group 4: Tariff Policies - Trump has announced a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports but offers exemptions for companies that commit to building factories in the U.S. [8].

Core Insights - Nvidia and AMD have agreed to pay 15% of their sales revenue from chip sales in China to the U.S. government as a condition for obtaining semiconductor export licenses, marking a significant shift in U.S. export control policy [1][2] - Nvidia is expected to generate approximately $23 billion in revenue from the sale of 1.5 million H20 chips in China by 2025, which could result in over $3 billion in payments to the U.S. government [1][2] - This unprecedented arrangement indicates that the Trump administration is negotiating "trade agreements" on a company-by-company basis, suggesting a new era in the trade war [2] Company-Specific Developments - Nvidia received export licenses for H20 chips shortly after CEO Jensen Huang's meeting with President Trump, indicating a direct link between political discussions and business operations [3] - AMD has also begun receiving export licenses for its chips, although the company has not publicly commented on the arrangement [1][3] Government and Regulatory Context - The U.S. Department of Commerce has started issuing export licenses for H20 chips, coinciding with a broader strategy to encourage domestic investment and job creation while imposing tariffs on imports [3][4] - The Chinese government has expressed opposition to U.S. export controls, emphasizing the need for cooperation and fair competition in the semiconductor market [4]

Supply of Light Rare Earths - The biggest variable in the supply of light rare earths is the mining quota set by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which has not yet been disclosed for 2025 [3] - Baotou Steel's 2024 annual report indicates a 3.4% increase in rare earth concentrate production for 2025, but overall supply growth is expected to be limited due to export controls on medium and heavy rare earths and a 6.45% decrease in tungsten quotas [3] Demand for Light Rare Earths - In the first half of 2025, China's total production of new energy vehicles increased by 40.61%, with a penetration rate of 44.13% [4] - Wind power installations in China saw a significant increase, with a 104.64% year-on-year growth in new installed capacity during the same period, reaching 26.3 GW in May 2025 [4] Heavy Rare Earths Production - China dominates global rare earth smelting and separation capacity, accounting for approximately 88.56% of the total 407,000 tons (REO) expected in 2024 [5] - It is projected that by 2029, global rare earth smelting and separation capacity will rise to 560,000 tons (REO), with China's share decreasing to 64.17% [5] Strategic Metal Resource Management - China has implemented four rounds of export controls on strategic metal resources in 2023, with an increasing number of metals being controlled and faster implementation times [6][7] - The latest measures have included a broader range of metals, indicating a growing emphasis on managing strategic resources [6][7] Price Trends Post-Export Controls - Historical data shows that export controls typically lead to a short-term increase in metal prices and export volumes before stabilizing [8] - Following the recent export controls on tungsten and medium-heavy rare earth elements, a price increase is anticipated in the coming months as export volumes recover [8] Company Performance Elasticity - An elasticity analysis of four rare earth listed companies indicates that a 1% price increase in rare earth products could significantly impact their performance, particularly for companies focused on ion-adsorption type rare earth mines [9]

再再再 call【锑】：反转在即，重视底部布局机会 20250806 摘要 2020 年至 2024 年 8 月，锑价主要受光伏玻璃需求影响，从每吨 4 万 元上涨至 2021 年的八九万元，后在 22 万至 23 万之间横盘，主要受光 伏装机量增长和库存去化影响。 2024 年 9 月至今，出口管制政策导致多数时间出口接近零，国内市场 需求弹性大幅增加，直接影响价格波动。今年 2-3 月锑价曾涨至 16 万 元，后因打击走私回落至 18 万元。 出口管制减少了 40%的需求，因直接出口占国内总产量 40%。今年初 出口恢复至正常水平一半，后因查处走私再次清零，5-6 月出口量仅为 去年同期的 5%-10%，导致国内市场需求波动。 光伏玻璃产量从 5 月上旬接近 60 万吨降至当前单周约 51 万吨，环比下 滑 15%-16%。库存天数从 7 月初的 34 天降至 29 天，同比减少 5 天， 表明下游反周期库存累积不高。 近期国企出口放行和民企限制解除，显示出口管制有所放松。预计 Tia 出口拐点向上，若光伏玻璃企业盈利改善，补库需求可能增加 3-4 个百 分点，外需恢复至二三月份水平将增加约 20%需求。 ...