一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 12 月 24 日 星期三 节前累库预期升温，芳烃震荡偏弱 价格：12 月 23 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 0.47%，报 6509 元/吨；纯 苯主力合约收跌 0.62%，报 5425 元/吨。 成本：12 月 23 日布油主力收盘 58.0 美元/桶（+1.5 美元/桶）， WTI 原油主力合约收盘 62.1 美元/桶（+1.6 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报 价 5310 元/吨（-5 元/吨）。 库存：纯苯方面，华东港口库存 27.30 万吨（+1.30 万吨），在到港压 力尚存及提货偏弱背景下继续累积，库存维持高位运行。苯乙烯方面， 华东港口库存 13.93 万吨（+0.46 万吨），华东商业库存 8.46 万吨 （+0.23 万吨），前期去库周期结束，库存进入回建阶段。 供应：纯苯主力基差-134 元/吨，CFR 中国及 FOB 韩国加工费小幅回 升，美韩价差维持相对高位，但海外汽油裂解价差走弱，调油支撑减 弱。苯乙烯装置负荷自低位回升，整体开工率 69.1%（+0.8 个百分 点），非一体 ...

A refiner stacks gold bullion after being removed from casts at the ABC Refinery smelter in SydneyDAVID GRAY/AFP via Getty Images Gold and silver spiked to records on Monday. Copper also jumped to new highs. The latest rise in gold and silver has been driven by a cocktail of macro and geopolitical developments. Copper, which moves with silver and gold, is also seen as a play on the AI boom. 2025 has been a wild year for metals, and the ride continued on Monday with fresh highs in gold, silver, and ...

Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets— and may continue to in the future. Key Takeaways Here’s what you need to know: Gold is on pace for a roughly $50/oz weekly gain, but has traded mostly flat near $4,340/oz after an early-week push higher. A wave of weak U.S. data (jobs, unemployment, and r ...

Core Insights - The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a decrease to 2.6%, down from 3.0% in September, indicating cooling inflation and potentially paving the way for more rate cuts than previously expected in 2026 [2][10][15] - Wall Street reacted positively to the CPI data, interpreting it as a signal for the Federal Reserve to prioritize labor market stabilization over inflation control, thus increasing the likelihood of earlier and deeper rate cuts [6][10][11] Inflation Data - The CPI report for November, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, came in at 2.6%, below market estimates [2] - The report did not provide month-over-month changes for October and November for most items, complicating the analysis of recent economic performance [5] Federal Reserve Outlook - Following the CPI report, traders adjusted their expectations for rate cuts, with nearly 47% odds for a quarter-point cut in March 2026 and almost 12% odds for a 50-basis-point cut [7] - The potential nomination of a dovish Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump could lead to significant rate cuts, with predictions of up to 100 basis points [8][10] Economic Conditions - The current economic landscape is characterized by cooling inflation and rising unemployment, which may prompt the Fed to act more decisively than previously anticipated [10][20] - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, exceeding earlier projections, indicating a potential need for the Fed to intervene to prevent further deterioration [21][25] Market Reactions - The positive market response to the CPI report reflects a shift in sentiment, as investors now see a clearer path for supportive monetary policy in 2026 [10][26] - The combination of softening economic conditions and easing inflation is viewed as a favorable backdrop for growth and AI-driven markets [15][26]

美联储古尔斯比：利率有现实可能大幅下调。 来源：滚动播报 ...

美联储古尔斯比：只要我们确定通胀正朝着2%的目标回落，利率就可以大幅下调。 来源：滚动播报 ...

美国上周初请失业金人数有所下降，扭转了前一周的激增趋势，表明12月份劳动力市场状况保持稳定。 周四公布的数据显示，美国截至12月13日当周初请失业金人数经季节性调整后下降了1.3万人，至22.4万 人，略低于经济学家预测的22.5万。截至12月6日当周续请失业金人数189.7万人，市场预期为193万人。 截至12月13日当周初请失业金人数四周均值为21.75万人。 美国劳工统计局周二公布，11月份非农就业人数增加了6.4万人。尽管11月份失业率高达4.6%，为2021 年9月以来的最高水平，但由于长达43天的政府停摆，美国劳工统计局未能公布10月份的失业率数据， 导致失业率数据出现偏差。这场历史上持续时间最长的政府停摆阻碍了家庭数据的收集，而这些数据对 于计算10月份的失业率至关重要。 近几周来，美国失业金申请人数波动较大，反映出感恩节假期前后数据调整的挑战。不过，劳动力市场 整体状况变化不大，雇主不愿增加招聘，但也没有进行大规模裁员。经济学家表示，美国总统特朗普实 施的大规模关税对企业造成了意想不到的冲击，企业因此缩减了招聘规模。 里士满和亚特兰大联邦储备银行与杜克大学福库商学院联合进行的一项针对548位首 ...

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【12月18日英国央行下调关键利率，与美联储步调一致】周四，英国央行下调关键利率，与美联储步调 一致，未跟随欧洲其他央行。欧洲央行已进入借贷成本趋稳期。 英国央行将关键利率从4%降至 3.75%，接近三年最低，恢复自2024年8月以来的降息行动，11月曾暂停。 该行称，未来几月借贷成本 或继续下降，但已接近低点。决策者平衡通胀与就业市场，成员对降息速度看法不一。 ...

start uh chairman. No, Governor Waller. Let me just call me Chris. >> Chris.Okay. Chris. Um let me start with uh the uh jobs data we got yesterday, which I think is uh people are wondering how uh the Federal Reserve is processing and how you're personally processing this data here.We had a tick up to the unemployment rate at 4.6%. Uh return to job growth in November after job losses in October. What's the state of the labor market in your opinion.Well, earlier this summer when the jobs numbers were looking ...

波通社12月3日报道，波兰货币政策委员会(MPC)在当日议息会议后，将波兰央行(NBP)的利率下调25个 基点，参考利率下调至4.00%。该决定与市场预期一致。 这是MPC连续第五次降息，也是2025年全年的第六次降息。今年5月降息50个基点，7月、9月、10月、 11月每次降息25个基点；8月不举行决策会议。2025年全年，MPC累计降息175个基点。 ...