1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The passage of the US stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest, the increased probability of the Fed's September rate - cut due to Trump's pressure, continuous gold - buying by central banks globally, and unresolved geopolitical risks may limit the downside of precious metal prices. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1]. 3. Summary of Relevant Information 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: - **Shanghai Futures Gold**: The closing price was 777.32 on 2025 - 07 - 21, 778.74 on 2025 - 07 - 25, and 781.70 on 2025 - 07 - 24, with a change of - 4.38 compared to the previous day and - 1.42 compared to the previous week. The trading volume and open interest also showed corresponding changes, and the inventory (in ten - gram units) increased by 900 from 28857 to 30258 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3371.30 on 2025 - 07 - 17, 3338.50 on 2025 - 07 - 25, and 3345.40 on 2025 - 07 - 24, with a change of - 32.80 compared to the previous day and - 6.90 compared to the previous week. The trading volume, open interest, and inventory (in troy ounces) also had corresponding fluctuations [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3318.50, with a change of 25 compared to the previous day [1]. - **Silver**: - **Shanghai Futures Silver**: The closing price was 9392.00 on 2025 - 07 - 21, 121.00 on 2025 - 07 - 25, and 9386.00 on 2025 - 07 - 24, with a change of 6 compared to the previous day. The trading volume, open interest, and inventory (in ten - gram units) changed accordingly [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 38.33 on 2025 - 07 - 17, 39.29 on 2025 - 07 - 25, and 38.44 on 2025 - 07 - 24, with a change of - 0.96 compared to the previous day and - 0.11 compared to the previous week. The trading volume, open interest, and inventory (in troy ounces) also showed corresponding changes [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 38.74, with a change of - 0.29 compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Price Ratios and Spreads - **Gold - to - Silver Price Ratio**: The ratios of Shanghai gold/Shanghai silver, New York gold/New York silver, and London gold/London silver had different values and changes [1]. - **Spread and Basis**: The spreads between near - month and far - month contracts and the basis between spot and futures prices for gold and silver also had corresponding changes [1]. 3.3 Other Commodity and Financial Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was at 512.90 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was at 68.53 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was at 65.07 dollars/barrel, with corresponding price changes [1]. - **Copper**: Shanghai copper futures were at 79250 yuan/ton, and LME spot copper was at 9867 dollars/ton, with price fluctuations [1]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Shanghai rebar was at 3356 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was at 802.50 yuan/ton, with price changes [1]. - **Interest Rates**: Shanghai Interbank Offered Rates (SHIBOR) for overnight and one - year terms, US 10 - year Treasury nominal and TIPS yields, and inflation - breakeven rates had different values and changes [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index, the central parity rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, and the euro against the Chinese yuan had corresponding fluctuations [1]. - **Stock Indices**: Major global stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, UK FTSE 100, French CAC40, German DAX, Nikkei 225, and South Korean Composite Index had different price movements [1]. 3.4 Important News - **Trade Agreements**: The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff trade agreement, with the EU increasing investment in the US by 600 billion dollars and purchasing 750 billion dollars of energy products. The US and Japan reached an agreement, and the Bank of Japan may restart interest rate hikes this year [1]. - **Legislation**: The US House of Representatives passed a stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in gold and digital currencies [1]. - **Inflation and Unemployment**: Import tariffs pushed up US consumer - end inflation in June, and the initial jobless claims were 217,000, lower than expected [1]. - **Central Bank Policies**: The European Central Bank paused rate cuts in July, the Bank of England cut the key rate in May, and the Bank of Japan raised interest rates in January and may reduce bond purchases in 2026 [1].

Group 1 - The euro to Japanese yen exchange rate is rising, nearing a one-year high, driven by the continued weakness of the yen [1] - The US dollar index has significantly declined, marking the largest drop for the same period since 1973, with non-US currencies strengthening, particularly the euro, which has seen a cumulative increase of 13.86% against the dollar in the first half of 2025 [1] - The Bank of Japan maintains a loose monetary policy with a benchmark interest rate between 0 and 0.1%, indicating that the current financial environment will continue unless there is a significant price trend change [1] Group 2 - The Japanese authorities' intervention expectations regarding exchange rate fluctuations add uncertainty to the market, with the Bank of Japan conducting checks on the euro to yen exchange rate [2] - The euro to yen exchange rate reached 175.43, a new high since the euro's introduction in 1999, and if it approaches 180, intervention by Japanese authorities is likely [2] - Investors are closely monitoring the Bank of Japan's policy meetings for potential changes in bond purchase scales and interest rate decisions, which could impact the currency market [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the stagnation in US-Japan trade negotiations poses significant pressure on the Japanese market, with potential tariffs of 30-35% threatening investor sentiment [1][2] - Analysts predict that the trade talks may be delayed until after the Japanese Senate elections, with a possible compromise emerging only after both sides escalate their positions [2][5] - The Japanese government may face political risks, including increased defense spending as a concession to the US and potential electoral backlash against the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) due to perceived negotiation failures [5][6] Group 2 - Despite a bleak outlook for manufacturing, the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey reveals resilience in the non-manufacturing sector, suggesting a possibility of interest rate hikes within the year, with a 40% probability for October [3][6] - The Japanese stock market is expected to remain under pressure from a strong yen and trade negotiation deadlock, making it an unfavorable environment for stock purchases [6] - Conversely, the bond market may find support from the weak stock market, with a shift in investor interest towards long-term and ultra-long-term bonds [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market may oscillate weakly in the short term due to pressure on liquidity and demand. After the easing of the Israel-Iran conflict, market risk appetite has been continuously recovering, and it is waiting for new domestic and foreign policy signals [1]. - Precious metals maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term, but the medium - and long - term support logic remains unchanged. Non - ferrous metals continue the upward trend, and black metals' prices are rising again. Energy and chemical sectors show a weak performance, and agricultural products are on a weak track [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Market Overview - Last week, the overall commodity market declined by 2.00%. The energy and chemical sector fell by 4.23%, agricultural products and precious metals dropped by 1.31% and 0.36% respectively, while black and non - ferrous metals rose by 1.29% and 2.71% respectively [1][6]. - The top - rising varieties were industrial silicon, coking coal, and zinc, with increases of 8.66%, 6.60%, and 3.39% respectively. The top - falling varieties were crude oil, fuel oil, and LU, with decreases of 12.02%, 10.73%, and 8.09% respectively [1][6]. - There was a small outflow of funds, with little overall change [1][6]. 3.2 Outlook - After the Israel - Iran conflict eased, the market's risk preference is continuously recovering. The market is waiting for new policy signals at home and abroad [1]. 3.3 Specific Commodity Analysis 3.3.1 Precious Metals - They maintain a high - level oscillating trend. Gold is caught between the Fed's high - interest - rate stance and the slight slowdown of US core inflation. Although the US dollar index's strength suppresses gold prices to some extent, geopolitical tensions and central banks' strong gold - buying intentions support gold prices. Silver is affected by its industrial nature, and its short - term trend follows gold [2]. 3.3.2 Non - ferrous Metals - They continue the upward trend. The increase in market risk preference and the Fed's policy adjustment boost the metal sector. Copper prices are supported by low overseas inventories and strong domestic demand, and short - term factors like South American mine maintenance increase supply - tightening expectations. Aluminum prices benefit from rising alumina prices and power - rationing expectations [2]. 3.3.3 Black Metals - Their prices are rising again. Steel futures are firm, driven by the strength of iron ore and expectations of policy support. Iron ore inventories at ports are decreasing, and coke prices are stabilizing, with some areas starting a new round of price increases [3]. 3.3.4 Energy - The overall performance is weak. International oil prices are falling after high - level oscillations, mainly due to the cooling of macro - risk aversion, repeated Fed interest - rate hike expectations, an unexpected increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, and doubts about OPEC +'s production - cut implementation [3]. 3.3.5 Chemicals - They continue the weak trend. Most chemical varieties are adjusting. Methanol, PVC, and PTA prices are falling due to supply - side recovery and downstream procurement hesitation. High port inventories and import pressure exacerbate the supply - demand contradiction in the methanol market [3]. 3.3.6 Agricultural Products - The overall trend is weak, with oils and fats falling significantly. The improved weather in South American soybean - producing areas and high domestic soybean inventories suppress the prices of soybean oil and palm oil. Rapeseed meal is weak due to weak aquaculture demand and the price advantage of substitutes [4]. 3.4 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally declined last week, with the total scale increasing by 0.95% and the total trading volume increasing by 12.65%. The energy - chemical ETF and the soybean - meal ETF fell by 4.41% and 4.29% respectively, while the non - ferrous metal ETF rose by 2.19%, and the silver fund rose by 0.83% [35].

Group 1 - Tokyo's inflation rate shows signs of slowing for the first time in four months, primarily due to a slowdown in energy price growth and the Tokyo government waiving water fees for some households [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding fresh food in June increased by 3.1% year-on-year, slightly below economists' forecast of 3.3%, while the overall inflation rate decreased from 3.4% in May to 3.1% [1] - Electricity prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, significantly down from 10.8% the previous month, while gasoline prices fell by 1%, contrasting with a 6.3% increase in the prior month [1] Group 2 - Despite the inflation rate retreating, price increases remain above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, raising market expectations for a potential interest rate hike [1] - There are internal divisions within the Bank of Japan regarding monetary policy, with some members advocating for maintaining ultra-low interest rates to assess the impact of U.S. tariff policies, while others focus on rising domestic inflation pressures [2] - The Bank of Japan has lowered its economic growth forecast due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies, complicating the timing of the next interest rate hike [2]

Group 1 - Japan's rice prices surged by 101.7% year-on-year in May, marking the third consecutive month of significant increases, following rises of 98.4% in April and 92.1% in March, indicating a severe food price crisis not seen in over half a century [1][2] - The core consumer price index (CPI) in Japan rose by 3.7% year-on-year in May, exceeding economists' expectations of 3.6% and April's 3.5%, reaching the highest level since January 2023 [1][2] - The inflation rate excluding fresh food and energy increased from 3% to 3.3%, suggesting that price pressures are spreading [1][2] Group 2 - The Japanese government has released emergency reserves to stabilize rice prices, which account for approximately 50% of core inflation [2] - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% despite inflation exceeding the 2% target for 38 consecutive months, indicating significant pressure on monetary policy [3][4] - Japan's economy showed signs of weakness, with a 0.2% contraction in GDP in the first quarter, attributed mainly to declining exports [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US Federal Court's block of Trump's tariff policy has temporarily alleviated market concerns about a "full - scale trade war," leading to a significant repair of market risk appetite. However, Trump may still restart protectionist policies, so policy risks need to be monitored [2]. - The domestic economy continues to show the characteristic of "volume up, price down" after the weakening of the policy pulse effect at the beginning of the year. Although export pressure has eased, domestic demand repair is weak, and the next policy observation window will be at the end of July [2]. - Various commodities have different trends. Precious metals are under pressure due to the decline in risk - aversion demand; copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level; aluminum prices are expected to oscillate; zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly; lead prices have limited downward space; tin prices may be weakly adjusted; industrial silicon prices are expected to continue to explore the bottom; lithium carbonate prices may correct the price difference; nickel prices are weakly adjusted; crude oil prices oscillate; steel and iron ore prices are weakly adjusted; and agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and palm oil also show different trends [3][6][8][12][13][14][16][18][21][22][23][24][25][26] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - **Copper**: SHFE copper closed at 77,870 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 0.04%; LME copper closed at 9,566 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars or 0.31% [27]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum closed at 20,095 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan or 0.27%; LME aluminum closed at 2,465 dollars/ton, down 18 dollars or 0.72% [27]. - **Alumina**: SHFE alumina closed at 2,991 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan or 0.89% [27]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc closed at 22,210 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 0.54%; LME zinc closed at 2,689 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars or 0.74% [27]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead closed at 16,705 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 0.71%; LME lead closed at 1,989 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar or 0.03% [27]. - **Nickel**: SHFE nickel closed at 119,950 yuan/ton, down 2,360 yuan or 1.93%; LME nickel closed at 15,095 dollars/ton, down 285 dollars or 1.85% [27]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin closed at 257,000 yuan/ton, down 7,690 yuan or 2.91%; LME tin closed at 31,495 dollars/ton, down 915 dollars or 2.82% [27]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold closed at 3,312.40 dollars/ounce, up 12.70 dollars or 0.38%; SHFE silver closed at 8,225.00 yuan/kg, up 8.00 yuan or 0.10%; COMEX silver closed at 33.10 dollars/ounce, down 0.29 dollars or 0.87% [27]. - **Steel Products**: SHFE rebar closed at 2,964 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan or 0.54%; SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3,100 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 0.35% [27]. - **Iron Ore**: DCE iron ore closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [27]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - **Copper**: On May 28, SHFE copper's main contract was 77,870 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day; LME copper's 3 - month contract was 9,566 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 7,850 tons to 154,300 tons [28]. - **Nickel**: On May 28, SHFE nickel's main contract was 119,950 yuan/ton, down 2,360 yuan from the previous day; LME nickel's 3 - month contract was 15,095 dollars/ton, down 285 dollars. LME inventory increased by 864 tons to 200,862 tons [28]. - **Zinc**: On May 28, SHFE zinc's main contract was 22,210 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan from the previous day; LME zinc was 2,689 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 7,700 tons to 143,450 tons [31]. - **Lead**: On May 28, SHFE lead's main contract was 16,705 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan from the previous day; LME lead was 1,989 dollars/ton, up 0.5 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 1,325 tons to 291,050 tons [31]. - **Aluminum**: On May 28, SHFE aluminum's continuous - three contract was 19,975 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day; LME aluminum's 3 - month contract was 2,465 dollars/ton, down 18 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 4,250 tons to 377,325 tons [31]. - **Alumina**: On May 28, SHFE alumina's main contract was 2,991 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan from the previous day; the national average spot price of alumina was 3,289 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [31]. - **Tin**: On May 28, SHFE tin's main contract was 257,000 yuan/ton, down 7,790 yuan from the previous day; LME tin was 31,495 dollars/ton, down 915 dollars. LME inventory increased by 20 tons to 2,680 tons [31]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices were mostly unchanged on May 28. COMEX gold's inventory remained unchanged at 38,814,647 ounces, and COMEX silver's inventory increased by 1,070,427 ounces to 498,373,208 ounces [31][33]. - **Steel Products and Iron Ore**: Rebar's main contract was 2,964 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day; iron ore's main contract was 698.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. Other related prices and spreads also had corresponding changes [33]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke's main contract was 1338.5 yuan/ton, down 25.5 yuan from the previous day; coking coal's main contract was 779.0 yuan/ton, down 20.5 yuan [33]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On May 28, lithium carbonate's main contract was 6.05 yuan, down 0.04 yuan from the previous day; the electric - carbon spot price was 6.3 yuan, down 0.08 yuan [33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On May 28, industrial silicon's main contract was 7,340 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from the previous day; the average price of 421 silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [33]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: On May 28, CBOT soybean's main contract was 1048.5 yuan/ton, down 13.25 yuan from the previous day; the main contract of soybean meal was 2961 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the main contract of rapeseed meal was 2604 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [33][35].

Core Viewpoint - The future trajectory of the Japanese yen is expected to remain supported due to recent inflation data and the divergence in monetary policy among major global central banks [1][3]. Group 1: Japanese Inflation Data - Recent inflation data from Japan is a key variable influencing the yen's performance, suggesting a potential for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates later this year [3]. - Despite a long history of deflation in Japan, the market has been cautious about the Bank of Japan's rate hike, with low expectations for an increase this year [3]. Group 2: Global Monetary Policy Divergence - Most central banks in the G10 are moving towards lowering interest rates, with the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank continuing to cut rates to stimulate economic growth [3]. - In contrast, the Bank of Japan retains the possibility of raising rates, making its policy outlook unique amid a generally accommodative global monetary environment [3]. Group 3: Investor Behavior and Currency Dynamics - Investors seeking stable returns and asset preservation are likely to favor currencies with appreciation potential, such as the yen, due to its potential rate hike [3]. - As the market increasingly anticipates further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, the attractiveness of the dollar is diminishing, leading to a shift in investor preference towards the yen [4]. - The growing trend of selling dollars to buy yen is exerting downward pressure on the USD/JPY exchange rate [4].

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate continues to decline, currently at 145.2130, down 0.28%, influenced by a weaker dollar index due to poor economic data and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, alongside rising expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike [1] - A recent survey indicates that most economists expect the Bank of Japan to maintain interest rates until September to assess the impact of U.S. tariffs, with slightly over half anticipating at least a 25 basis point hike by the end of the year [1][2] - The survey, conducted from May 7 to 13 among 62 economists, reflects the Bank of Japan policymakers' view that while U.S. tariffs have disrupted markets, they have not completely derailed efforts to gradually tighten monetary policy [1] Group 2 - 95% of economists surveyed expect the Bank of Japan to keep rates unchanged at the June policy meeting, with 67% predicting the benchmark rate will remain at 0.5% until September, an increase from about 36% in the previous month [2] - The implied volatility of the USD/JPY exchange rate rose from a low of 9.5% to 11.3%, indicating increased demand for downside protection against the dollar, particularly beyond the three-month period following the U.S.-China tariff pause [2] - Technical analysis suggests that if the USD/JPY breaks below the psychological level of 145.00, it could lead to a decline towards the 144.55 area, with further support at approximately 144.30, which corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci level [3]

Group 1 - The recent surge in spot gold prices has seen it break through the $3,360 per ounce mark, with a slight pullback following the peak, indicating strong market interest in gold as an investment [1][3] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to several factors, including a cooling of interest rate hike expectations in the U.S., a weakening U.S. dollar, and central banks globally accumulating gold as a safety net, which affects supply and demand dynamics positively [3] - The current market sentiment is volatile, and while short-term gains are evident, a cautious approach is advised for long-term investors, suggesting to wait for potential price corrections before making new investments [3] Group 2 - The commentary emphasizes the importance of a long-term investment strategy, likening it to a marathon rather than a sprint, and encourages investors to focus on understanding market fundamentals rather than chasing short-term trends [3] - Future monitoring of global inflation data and geopolitical situations is recommended as these factors are considered significant variables that could impact gold prices [3]