Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a slight increase against the US dollar (USD), trading around 0.6986, following a 25 basis points interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to 3.85% on February 3, marking the beginning of a tightening cycle among major central banks in 2026 [1] - The RBA's hawkish stance is supported by rising inflation pressures, with expectations that inflation will remain above the 2%-3% target range for an extended period, particularly as the unemployment rate falls to 4.1% and job advertisements increase [1] - Market expectations for further rate hikes have intensified, with a 75% probability of another increase in May, and institutions like Goldman Sachs and major Australian banks have raised their rate forecasts, indicating a potential peak above 4.1% [1] Group 2 - The divergence in monetary policy between the US and Australia is supporting the AUD, as the RBA initiates a rate hike cycle while the Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts, leading to a widening yield premium on 10-year Australian bonds compared to US bonds [2] - Commodity prices for iron ore and copper are recovering, alongside a sustained trade surplus for Australia, which further enhances the AUD's appeal as a commodity currency [2] - Technically, the AUD/USD pair shows a strong upward trend, with resistance at 0.7050 and potential to reach 0.7260, while support is identified at 0.6980 [2]

2月4日，国投白银LOF复牌后再度跌停，已连续三日跌停，现报3.825元，溢价率为64.6%。 受风险偏好回落、美元指数走软等因素影响，国际黄金和白银价格持续反弹，金价3日创下2009年以来最大单日涨幅。在随后的隔夜交易中，金银期货价 格继续反弹，金价重回每盎司5000美元上方。 3日，纽约商品交易所4月黄金期价盘中涨幅超过7%；3月白银期价重新站上每盎司80美元，盘中涨幅超过15%。 | 間大福 | 間六福 | ■ # # 周生生 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1566.00 | 1561.00 | 1570.00 | | 金条价格 1375.00 | 金条价格 1456.00 | 金条价格 1378.00 | | 周大堂 間大生 | 州 潮宏基 | 六福珠宝 | | 1566.00 | 1566.00 | 1564.00 | | 铂金价格 899.00 | 铂金价格 899.00 | 金条价格 1373.00 | | 老凤祥 | 命 老庙黄金 | 6 中国黄金 | | 1576.00 | 1571.00 | 1069.00 | | 足金价格 1576.00 | 金条价格 1396.00 ...

荷兰国际 银行的Francesco Pesole在报告中表示，澳元存在转而走弱的风险，因为市场对进一步加息的 预期显得过于激进。他指出，澳洲联储如预期加息25个基点，市场从政策声明中解读出足够理由，押注 未来还会继续加息。澳洲联储将6月通胀预测上调至3.7%，但年末3.2%的通胀预期"并不足以说明有迫 切需要再次加息"。他表示，在加息预期已被计入、且美元可能回升的情况下，澳元在澳洲联储决议后 的涨势应会逐步回吐。 ...

2026年2月3日亚洲交易时段早盘，澳元兑美元围绕加息预期震荡走高，截至发稿报0.6971，日内微涨 0.3455%，最高触及0.6973、最低下探0.6941，昨收与今开均为0.6950，商品货币属性叠加加息预期为汇 价提供短期支撑，交投情绪聚焦日内澳洲联储利率决议。上一交易日汇价受美元短线反弹压制小幅走 弱，尾盘依托加息预期企稳回升，未跌破0.6940关键支撑位，市场对澳联储加息的定价已基本消化，等 待政策声明的前瞻指引给出明确方向。 技术面来看，澳元兑美元短期呈现技术面偏空与基本面偏多的博弈特征。1小时级别形成头肩顶形态并 跌破颈线，释放明确短期看空信号，预示汇价存在回调需求；14日RSI指标报46.7，未进入超买或超卖 区间，多空动能暂时均衡。日线级别上，汇价此前受加息预期推动创近三年高位，短期均线呈多头排 列，但近期涨势放缓，技术面走势更多依赖日内澳联储决议的基本面催化，若决议释放鹰派信号，有望 扭转短期技术面偏空格局。 本次澳洲联储利率决议成为主导澳元兑美元走势的核心变量，市场普遍预期央行将加息25个基点，将基 准利率从3.60%上调至3.85%，这也是2026年澳洲联储首次货币政策调整，加息概率 ...

国外 1. 麦格理：美元暂稳但隐忧仍存 麦格理集团策略师Thierry Wizman指出，特朗普提名沃什领导美联储的决定，有助于稳定美元走势。市 场交易员或认为，这一决定意在传递延续央行制度传统的信号。然而，特朗普不太可能背离自身的信念 体系，其曾多次施压美联储降息。沃什是特朗普的家族友人，自2009年以来长期在货币政策方面为总统 提供幕后建议。这意味着当降息时机临近时，沃什或将更迅速采取行动。 2. 荷兰国际：多重压力叠加，加元或面临下行风险 荷兰国际集团分析师弗朗西斯科·佩索莱在报告中指出，若美元延续反弹势头、美墨加协定续约谈判陷 入僵局且加拿大失业率进一步攀升，加元可能走弱。美加关系与就业市场的持续恶化，可能促使市场对 加拿大央行进一步降息的预期升温。加拿大央行高度关注季度商业前景调查。即便其他经济信心指标已 开始改善，但该调查持续显示贸易不确定性是第四季度企业招聘意愿下降的主因。荷兰国际集团认为美 元兑加元仍有上行至1.36-1.37的空间。 3. CreditSights：沃什回归加剧美联储缩表争议，调控压力或转向财政部 随着凯文·沃什获得美联储主席提名，市场焦点已骤然从短期利率转向美联储6.6万亿 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump has led to a significant decline in silver prices, with a current trading price of 18.294 yuan per gram, down 4.28% from the opening price of 19.112 yuan per gram [1] - The market interprets Warsh's hawkish stance as a signal that the Federal Reserve may adopt a tighter monetary policy, which undermines investor expectations for further interest rate cuts [1] - The increase in interest rate expectations has caused the US dollar index (DXY) to rebound sharply, reducing the attractiveness of precious metals priced in dollars and triggering a wave of selling among traders [1] Group 2 - The analysis of the silver market indicates that after hitting a low, the price has entered a consolidation phase, with a decline of over 4% [2] - The one-hour Bollinger Bands show a downward opening, indicating that bears are currently in control, and further declines are possible [2] - Key support levels for silver are identified at 16.50-17.50, while resistance levels are noted at 19.50-20.50 [2]

近期澳元兑美元（AUD/USD）走势表现强势，截至周四亚洲交易时段，该货币对已连续第三个交易日延续涨势，交投于0.7040附近，整体呈现稳步上行态 势。此次涨势并非偶然，核心驱动力来自澳大利亚最新公布的通胀数据超预期，直接推升了澳洲联储（RBA）的加息预期，为澳元提供了强劲支撑。 周三公布的澳大利亚通胀数据成为市场焦点，多项关键指标均超出市场预期，印证了国内通胀压力仍在持续。数据显示，澳大利亚12月消费者价格指数 （CPI）同比上涨3.8%，较前一个月的3.4%有所回升，也高于市场普遍预期的3.6%；月度CPI环比上涨1.0%，相较于前值0%的持平状态大幅改善，同样超出 0.7%的预期值。作为核心通胀参考的澳大利亚央行截尾均值通胀率，环比上升0.2%、同比上升3.3%，始终高于澳洲联储设定的2%-3%政策目标区间，进一 步强化了加息必要性。 通胀数据的向好，直接改变了市场对澳洲联储后续货币政策的预期。目前市场预测，澳洲联储最早可能在下周的议息会议上启动加息，将现金利率从当前的 3.6%上调25个基点，这一加息概率已从数据公布前的60%升至70%以上。 从长期利率定价来看，市场预计到5月份，利率将完全定价至3. ...

美元指数当日大跌0.95%，收盘96.17，跌破96关口创2022年2月以来新低，为澳元提供被动上行动力。 核心诱因是特朗普表态"不担忧美元走弱"，被市场解读为官方默许美元贬值，虽贝森特补充美国长期奉 行强势美元政策，但市场看空情绪未减，美元走弱与大宗商品涨价形成双重利好。 作为铁矿石、煤炭等核心大宗商品出口国，澳大利亚受益于商品涨价改善贸易条件，推动结汇与外资流 入。当日澳股ASX200指数能源、材料板块分别上涨2.33%、1.35%，铀矿、铜矿个股表现强势，进一步 强化澳元商品货币属性支撑。 1月29日回溯年1月28日(周三)，澳元兑美元上演"冲高回落再企稳"震荡行情。澳大利亚12月通胀数据超 预期反弹催生加息预期，叠加美元指数结构性疲软托底，澳元盘中触及0.7022，创下2023年以来新高， 终以强势格局收尾，开年累计涨幅近4%，跻身G10货币涨幅前三。 当日澳元兑美元开盘报0.7002，早盘受通胀数据公布前的谨慎情绪影响，于0.6990-0.7010窄幅整理。澳 洲统计局披露数据后，澳元快速拉升至0.7022高点，随后因美联储会议纪要前的获利了结盘离场，小幅 回落至0.70整数关口企稳。 截至收盘，澳 ...

新华财经悉尼1月28日电（记者李晓渝）澳大利亚统计局28日宣布，2025年12月该国整体消费者价格指 数同比涨幅为3.8%，高于11月的3.4%，也高于市场此前预期的3.6%。受此影响，市场对澳大利亚央行 在2月加息的预期增强。 同时，作为基础通胀率指标的截尾均值通胀率从前一个月的3.2%回升至3.3%，继续高于澳大利亚央行 设定的通胀目标区间2%-3%。 具体来说，12月澳大利亚食品与非酒精饮料价格月度同比涨幅为3.5%，烟酒价格涨幅为4.8%，服装鞋 靴价格涨幅为3.4%，房屋价格涨幅为5.5%，家具、家居设备与服务价格同比涨幅为1.7%，保健价格涨 幅为3.6%，交通价格涨幅为1.7%，通讯价格涨幅为1.1%，文娱价格涨幅为4.3%，教育价格涨幅为 5.4%，保险与金融服务价格涨幅为2.5%。 2025年四季度，澳大利亚整体消费者价格指数环比增长约0.6%，环比截尾均值通胀率约为0.9%。 通胀数据公布后，市场预测澳央行在2月初加息的可能性从61%升至72%。纽约梅隆银行宏观策略师Wee Khoon Chong表示，12月通胀数据高于预期，加上本月早些时候公布的劳动力市场数据表现强劲，市场 对近期加息的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) has shown strong performance against G10 currencies, reaching a three-year high against the US dollar, supported by policy divergence, commodity prices, and economic resilience [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Performance - As of January 28, the AUD/USD exchange rate reached 0.7010 before slightly retreating to around 0.6997, marking a nearly 4% increase year-to-date [1]. - The AUD/CNY exchange rate was reported at 4.8520, down 0.4852% from the previous trading day, with a daily high of 4.8852 and a low of 4.8520 [1]. Group 2: Policy Divergence - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained a benchmark interest rate of 3.6% and indicated plans for potential rate hikes in 2026, contrasting with the US Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts [1][2]. - The interest rate differential between Australia and the US has widened to a new high since 2022, attracting cross-border capital inflows that support the AUD [1]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Australia's economy demonstrated resilience with the addition of 65,200 full-time jobs in December 2025, leading to a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1% [2]. - The fourth quarter CPI data showed a month-on-month increase of 0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, reinforcing expectations for interest rate hikes [2]. Group 4: Commodity Prices - The AUD is closely linked to commodity prices, with recent highs in gold and copper, stable nickel prices, and iron ore prices holding above $130 per ton, benefiting Australia's trade balance [1]. - The strong performance of commodities, driven by recovering demand from China and supply-side disruptions, is expected to continue supporting the AUD [1]. Group 5: Market Predictions - Financial institutions are optimistic about the AUD's future, with predictions from various banks suggesting it may reach 0.70 against the USD by the end of March 2026 [3].