美联储理事Barr：价格稳定性目标面临"严重风险"。劳动力市场对负面冲击表现得更加脆弱。美联储应 当对调整政策保持谨慎态度。我本人对"全面看淡关税通胀"这种做法持怀疑态度。不清楚美国政府关门 事件是否会对美国经济增长构成显而易见的影响。 ...

最新发声。 当地时间10月9日，美联储主席鲍威尔以视频形式在华盛顿特区联邦储备委员会社区银行会议上致欢迎辞，但他并未对当前经济形势和货币政策前景进行表态，而 纽约联储负责人则明确表示美联储应该继续降息。 鲍威尔：确保社区银行稳健经营 在美联储公布的讲话稿中，鲍威尔表示，社区银行在美国金融体系中发挥着至关重要的作用，因为它们与所服务的个人和企业有着密切的联系，并且对当地经济状 况有直接的了解。这些密切的联系使社区银行家能够更好地了解他们的客户，以及他们所服务的客户随之而来的产品和服务。 鲍威尔表示，当天的活动是美联储领导人听取社区银行家意见，并更多地了解用户面临的问题的有用机会。鲍威尔强调，美联储致力于了解这些问题，并一直致力 于为社区银行量身定制监管实践，以减少不必要的负担，同时仍然确保社区银行继续以安全稳健的方式运营。 在致辞中，鲍威尔并未提及当前经济形势，以及货币政策相关的内容。 纽约联储负责人：支持继续降息 10月9日，美联储货币政策委员会（FOMC）委员、纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams）在接受《纽约时报》采访时明确表态，支持在今年内进 一步下调利率，以应对劳动力市场可能 ...

Joining us now to discuss the state of the Fed and where we go from here, we've got Danielle D. Martino Booth, CEO and chief strategist QI Research. Danielle, I'm so glad I get a chance to talk with you this morning.Off the back of the latest minutes from the Fed, plus you've got a lot of Fed speak happening today. We've got Fed Chair Jerome Pal speaking literally as we speak right now. Uh let's talk a little bit about the minutes.Uh to me my take was there was essentially near uh unanimous to cut rates wit ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of silver prices and the implications of the Federal Reserve's recent decisions on interest rates, highlighting the potential for further rate cuts and their impact on the silver market [3][4]. Silver Price Summary - As of October 9, 2025, the spot silver price is $49.49 per ounce, with a trading range of $48.42 to $49.51 during the day [1][2]. - The silver T+D price is 11,179 yuan per kilogram, and paper silver is priced at 11.338 yuan per gram [2]. Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate a division among officials regarding future interest rate cuts, with a majority supporting at least two more cuts this year [3]. - Some officials believe there was no need for the recent rate cut, while others support maintaining current rates, reflecting challenges in building consensus [3]. - Investors anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming October meeting, as indicated by the general sentiment among officials [3]. Labor Market Concerns - Federal Reserve official Williams expressed concerns about the slowing labor market and its implications for future rate cuts, despite inflation not being as severe as earlier in the year [4]. - He emphasized the need to prevent further deterioration in the labor market, suggesting that if inflation rises to around 3% and unemployment slightly increases, he would support lowering rates [4]. Silver Trading Strategy - The silver price has shown bullish momentum, with a potential breakout above $49.55 leading to targets of $50.50 to $51.00 [4]. - Conversely, if the price falls below the support level of $48.50, it could decline to $48.00 or even $47.50 [4]. - The overall market shows resistance near historical highs, with key support and resistance levels being crucial for future price movements [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the aluminum price remains strong due to the resonance of macro and fundamental expectations. In October, the Fed's interest rate cut and the controllable inflation and economic risks in the US create a favorable macro - environment for the rise of aluminum prices. Although the peak demand season in September was not satisfactory, the demand in October is still promising. The supply growth of electrolytic aluminum slows down, and the aluminum ingot inventory is expected to decline, which will support the aluminum price. [1][78] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The overall trend of the Shanghai aluminum market in September was a rapid rise followed by a rapid decline. At the beginning of the month, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation increased, but China's export data was poor, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to increase, so the aluminum price fluctuated. Then, due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the obvious reduction of aluminum ingot inventory, the aluminum price rose rapidly and hit a new high this year. After that, due to the poor economic data in China and the increase in inventory, the aluminum price fell back. Before the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, the market's inventory - building sentiment was good, but the non - ferrous metal sector declined, and the aluminum price was weak. [6] 2. Macro and Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - **Overseas Macro Indicators**: It shows data on the Fed's and the European Central Bank's interest - rate decisions, US inflation indicators, freight indices, etc. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025. The European Central Bank has also carried out multiple interest - rate cuts since 2024. [12][14] - **Domestic Macro Indicators**: It includes data on GDP growth, social financing scale, PMI, exchange rates, inflation, and import - export. China's export growth slowed down in August, and the trade balance was affected by factors such as tariffs. The government has introduced policies to support the economy, such as issuing special bonds. [19][25] 3. Aluminum Raw Material and Production - **Domestic Bauxite**: The production in the main domestic bauxite - producing areas remains stable. Due to safety supervision and environmental inspections in Shanxi and Henan, and the rainy season, the mining of bauxite is restricted. After the inventory of domestic ore is gradually consumed, alumina plants generally increase the use of imported ore. With the end of the rainy season in Guinea and the increase in imported ore, the price of domestic ore is expected to decline. [28] - **Imported Bauxite**: In August 2025, the import volume of bauxite was 18.29 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.81% and a year - on - year increase of 18.24%. Guinea is the largest supplier. After the end of the rainy season in Guinea, the supply - demand surplus pattern of bauxite will be more prominent, and the price of imported ore is expected to decline. [31] - **Alumina**: At the end of September, the built - in production capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, and the operating capacity was 98.55 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 350,000 tons. The domestic spot weighted index of alumina decreased. The production of the alumina industry is in a high - stable state, but due to the decrease in the import of Guinean bauxite and the rapid release of production and inventory accumulation, the price of alumina continues to weaken. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in October. [34] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of September, the built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China was 45.232 million tons, and the operating capacity was 44.449 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons. The operating capacity is expected to increase steadily in October, but the new production and restart capacity are very limited. [36][39] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import**: In August 2025, the net import of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 1.917 million tons. In the first and middle of September, the loss of electrolytic aluminum imports increased. In October, with the expectation of the relative strength of Shanghai aluminum, the import of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase. [42] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Cost and Profit**: In September, the average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 368 yuan/ton to 15,120 yuan/ton, mainly due to the decline in the price of alumina. It is expected that the production cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry will remain stable in October. [44] 4. Aluminum Downstream Demand - **Automobile**: In August, automobile production and sales increased, and the export reached a new high. The penetration rate of new - energy vehicles continued to increase. With the support of special bonds and the arrival of the peak season, and the pre - demand caused by the restart of the new - energy vehicle purchase tax next year, the demand for aluminum in the automobile industry is expected to continue to grow. [52] - **Real Estate**: From January to August, real estate development investment, construction area, new - start area, and sales area all declined. Although the government has introduced a series of loosening policies, the real - estate market is still weak. [55] - **Infrastructure**: In August, the issuance of new local bonds decreased, but the issuance progress of new special bonds in the first eight months was faster, which is expected to drive future infrastructure investment to maintain a high growth rate. However, the use of special bonds for debt repayment and land reserve will have a crowding - out effect on infrastructure investment. The investment in the power grid has increased significantly, and the demand for aluminum in infrastructure is still optimistic. [58] - **Home Appliances**: In August, the production and export of home appliances showed different trends. The export of home appliances showed certain resilience. With the support of special bonds and the increase in the production schedule of three major white - goods in October, the demand for aluminum in the home - appliance industry is expected to increase. [61] - **Photovoltaic**: In July, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic decreased year - on - year, but the cumulative installed capacity from January to July increased significantly year - on - year. With the release of provincial mechanism electricity prices, the uncertainty of photovoltaic project returns is partially eliminated, and the photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to remain low but may improve month - on - month. [64] - **Aluminum Products Export**: In August, the net export of domestic aluminum products decreased year - on - year. Due to factors such as the restart of US tariffs and the full release of the US import demand, the export of aluminum products in October may decrease month - on - month. [67] 5. Aluminum Price Outlook - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase steadily, but the growth rate slows down. The demand in October is expected to improve in some fields, and the cost is expected to remain stable. The Fed's interest - rate cut creates a good macro - environment, and the reduction of aluminum ingot inventory in October is expected to support the aluminum price. If the inventory reduction is not effective, it is recommended to take profit at high points at the end of October and in November. [78]

大摩：市场思考 2026 年美国通胀会放缓吗 摘要 美国通胀同比率预计年底前升至 3%左右，但 2026 年走势关键。联储 虽放松政策支持劳动力市场，但明年通胀降幅或不及预期，需关注关税 影响是否为暂时性因素。 移民限制可能导致服务业通胀居高不下，初步迹象表明移民管制可能使 服务价格保持坚挺，或阻碍 2026 年通胀下降幅度，需持续观察。 2025 年上半年美国经济增速放缓至 1.8%左右，但第三季度反弹至 3%。关税政策对经济增长的显著下行压力尚未显现。 非金融企业部门非劳动成本（含关税）上升，企业通过降低劳动成本和 吸收利润应对，但这种紧张关系的可持续性有待观察，未来或引发通胀 或消费放缓。 美联储策略转向再校准，从关注通胀上行风险转为平衡通胀与劳动力市 场风险，预计年底前或再降息两次，以应对不断变化的经济状况。 劳动力市场数据支持美联储政策调整，但 2026 年鲍威尔任期结束后， 美联储是否维持传统政策模式仍存在不确定性，对投资者构成风险。 印度国内需求放缓和贸易紧张局势影响短期经济前景，但政府刺激措施 有望推动第四季度起恢复增长，贸易政策不确定性仍需关注。 Q&A 美国的通胀前景如何，关税的影响是否已 ...

据CME"美联储观察"：美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为5.9%，降息25个基点的概率为94.6%。美联储 12月维持利率不变概率为0.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为19.0%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 80.1%。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 美联储会议纪要谨慎暗示今年将进一步降息 美联储官员对利率未来走向的分歧越来越大，但多数人认为，今年有必要进一步降息。周三公布的美联 储9月会议纪要显示，委员会正在努力应对相互矛盾的经济信号，并在顽固的通胀和疲软的劳动力市场 哪个是最紧迫的问题上难以达成共识。会议纪要显示，美联储官员一致认为，鉴于近期疲弱的就业数 据，有必要降息一次，但对于未来路径官员产生分歧。不过，会议纪要显示，"大多数人认为，在今年 剩余时间里进一步放松政策可能是合适的。"然而，一些政策制定者"指出，从若干指标来看，金融状况 表明货币政政策并非特别具有限制性 ...

【导读】 标普500指数、纳指创收盘新高； 美联储公布9月议息会议纪要，未来降息路径现 分歧！ 中国基金报记者 郭玟君 10月8日，美国三大股指多数收涨，标普500指数、纳指创收盘新高，中概股多数上涨。美国 参议院再次否决两党拨款法案，联邦政府继续停摆。 标普500指数、纳指创收盘新高 美国三大股指多数收涨，道指持平，报46601.78点；标普500指数涨0.58%，报6753.72 点；纳指涨1.12%，报23043.38点。其中， 标普500指数、纳指创收盘新高 。 大型科技股多数上涨，万得美国科技七巨头指数上涨0.84%。英伟达涨2.20%，亚马逊涨 1.55%，特斯拉涨1.29%，领涨美国科技七巨头。 | 涨跌 涨跌幅▼ 年初至今 时间 名称 | 代码 | - 现价 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) NVDA 1 189.110 4.070 2.20% | | | | 40.85% 16:00 | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) AMZN 2 225.220 | | | 3.440 1.55% | 2.66% 16:00 | | 特斯拉 ...

根据联邦公开市场委员会9月16日—17日会议纪要，"多数人判断，在今年剩余时间进一步放松政策可能 是合适的"。会议记录还显示，"多数与会者强调通胀前景面临上行风险"。 与会官员以11比1的投票结果决定将利率下调25个基点至4%—4.25%的区间，这是今年的首次降息。新 上任的斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）主张一次性降息50个基点，因而对该决定投了反对票。 会议后发布的新预测显示，按中位数估计，官员预计到今年年底还将再降两次各25个基点。不过，预测 也体现出委员会内部的分歧：在19名与会者中，有6人预计2025年只会降息一次或不再降息。 美联储又传重磅消息。 重点内容如下。 10月9日凌晨，美联储公布9月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要。美联储官员们在9月政策会议 上表现出今年进一步降息的意愿，但同时也因通胀风险而保持谨慎。 美联储官员在上月的政策会议上表示，今年内有意进一步降息，但出于对通胀的担忧，许多人仍保持谨 慎态度。 自9月会议以来，包括美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊和米歇尔·鲍曼在内的美联储理事都提到，劳动力市场 的强劲是需要降息的理由。米兰则认为，中性利率低于普遍认知，这意味着美联储需 ...

会后，多位美联储高官相继发声。副主席杰斐逊与鲍曼认为劳动力市场的强劲表现支持进一步降息；米 兰则认为中性利率水平低于此前估计，美联储需更快降息。特朗普及其政府成员也多次呼吁立即降息。 市场方面，联邦基金期货显示投资者普遍预期，美联储将在10月和12月再次降息。纪要最后强调，决策 者将继续在促进就业与控制通胀目标之间寻求平衡。值得注意的是，本次会议召开于美国政府关门前两 周，而政府停摆已导致关键经济数据的发布被迫中止。 智通财经APP获悉，周三，美联储9月会议纪要显示，多数官员认为在今年剩余时间内进一步降息是合 适的，但同时强调通胀风险仍偏向上行，显示决策层在货币政策上持谨慎态度。 纪要指出，"多数委员认为，在今年余下时间继续放松货币政策可能是适当的。"不过，"多数与会者强 调，通胀前景仍存在上行风险。"会上，美联储以11票对1票的结果决定将基准利率下调25个基点至 4.00%至4.25%区间，这是今年首次降息。唯一的反对票来自新任理事米兰，他主张降息50个基点。 会议公布的最新预测显示，按中值计算，美联储官员预计年内还将有两次各25个基点的降息，但委员会 内部分歧明显，19位与会者中有6人预计2025年仅会降 ...