Core Insights - The event held on May 24, 2025, in Shenzhen served as a platform for entrepreneurs and executives from the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to engage in deep dialogue across industries and fields, emphasizing the area's role as a significant economic engine in China [2][3] - The discussions highlighted the importance of game theory in understanding competitive and cooperative strategies in business, with a focus on real-world applications and implications for decision-making [6][7] Group 1: Game Theory Insights - Game theory is crucial in economic research, influencing decisions in competitive markets and consumer transactions, revealing the strategies behind economic behaviors [2][6] - The keynote speech by Wang Hui emphasized the classic "Prisoner's Dilemma" model, illustrating the conflict between individual profit maximization and collective benefit [6][9] - Wang also discussed the role of third-party punishment mechanisms in addressing contract breaches in modern business, highlighting their importance in fostering cooperation and trust between nations [7][9] Group 2: Educational Impact - The event featured insights from alumni like Luo Chunfeng, who shared experiences from the precision manufacturing sector, emphasizing the importance of continuous innovation and strategic management learned during their EMBA studies [13][15] - The educational framework of the Guanghua EMBA program focuses on creating a comprehensive management knowledge base, nurturing business leaders, and promoting social progress [18][22] - The program aims to cultivate leaders with a global perspective and social responsibility, bridging the gap between business theory and practice [20][23] Group 3: Industry Applications - The discussion on educational "involution" highlighted the increasing economic burden on families and the psychological pressures stemming from competitive educational environments, illustrating a broader societal issue [9][10] - In the context of corporate competition, the phenomenon of price wars was analyzed, where companies engage in detrimental price-cutting strategies that ultimately harm industry profitability [9][10] - Luo Chunfeng's presentation on Jinzhou Precision Technology showcased the company's commitment to innovation in high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing, reflecting industry trends towards sustainability and technological advancement [16][17]

Market Overview - The life paper market in China is experiencing stable growth, driven by rising GDP and living standards, with further penetration potential in the market [2][4] - The structure of life paper categories is diversifying, with the share of basic categories like toilet paper decreasing from 60% a decade ago to 45% currently, while categories like wet wipes and kitchen paper are rapidly gaining market share [2][4] Product Upgrade Trends - The upgrade of life paper products is influenced by consumer quality demands, regional development potential, and policy support, focusing on scenario design, functional enhancement, raw material upgrades, and technological innovation [4][5] - Key upgrade directions include enhancing functional attributes, upgrading raw materials, and innovating platform technologies, with a shift from chemical protection to biological protection [5] Retail Channel Dynamics - Traditional supermarkets remain the largest retail channel for life paper, but online channels are rapidly increasing their market share, driven by e-commerce platforms [7][9] - Four main factors are driving the growth of online channels: convenience of online shopping, bulk purchasing options, competitive pricing, and strong repurchase behavior among consumers [9][10][11] Supply Side Dynamics - The life paper industry is currently in a state of oversupply, with production capacity growth outpacing demand, leading to a decline in overall capacity utilization [20][22] - The competitive landscape is fragmented, with the top four brands holding a market share of 30-35%, significantly lower than the 70% in markets like the US and Japan [23][24] Challenges for Private Label Manufacturers - Intense price competition and market saturation are leading to challenges for private label manufacturers, with many facing pressure to compromise on quality due to low-price strategies [26][34] - Common issues include the use of substandard materials, misleading product descriptions, and quality inconsistencies across different sales channels [39][42] Recommendations for Industry Improvement - The industry should shift from a low-price focus to a value-oriented model, emphasizing quality and consumer education [49][57] - E-commerce platforms are encouraged to establish industry standards, enhance consumer education, and ensure compliance with quality regulations to foster a healthier market environment [58][60]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of reading as a pathway to growth and wisdom, highlighting its role in enhancing understanding and decision-making in various contexts, including business and personal life [2][3][7]. Group 1: Book Recommendation - The featured book is "Game Theory: Strategy Interaction, Information, and Incentives," which aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of game theory through accessible language and relatable examples [10][12]. - The book is structured into four parts: synchronous one-shot games, repeated games, sequential games, and games with incomplete information, allowing readers to progressively grasp the concepts [25][28]. Group 2: Game Theory Insights - Game theory is described as a study of decision-making in interactive situations, applicable to various real-life scenarios, from international relations to everyday interactions [13][14]. - The article presents three illustrative cases that demonstrate game theory principles, such as the importance of trust and cooperation in repeated interactions, the necessity of monitoring in collaborative efforts, and strategic decision-making in competitive environments [15][18][21]. Group 3: Author Background - The author, Xia Dawei, is a professor and doctoral supervisor with extensive experience in teaching game theory in various executive education programs, contributing to the accessibility of complex concepts [29][30].

Group 1 - The article discusses different negotiation strategies, particularly focusing on win-win and win-lose approaches, emphasizing that win-win is generally more effective for creating value for all parties involved [1][5][7] - Horacio Falcao, a professor at INSEAD, highlights that in win-win scenarios, the absence of power dynamics leads to less resistance and friction, facilitating better resource allocation and sustainable agreements [1][5] - The article illustrates that win-lose strategies are often employed when one party has a significant power advantage, which can dictate the outcome of negotiations [1][5][7] Group 2 - Falcao uses Donald Trump as an example of a hard bargainer, contrasting his approach with traditional politicians who seek consensus and compromise [2][5] - Trump's negotiation style is influenced by his background in real estate, where he accumulated power and often sought to leverage it in negotiations [5][8] - The article notes that while win-lose strategies can be effective in the short term, they may not be sustainable in the long run, as cooperation tends to yield better outcomes over time [7][10] Group 3 - The unpredictability of negotiations is highlighted, with Falcao mentioning that unexpected events can disrupt power dynamics and alter the effectiveness of strategies [8][10] - Risks associated with win-lose strategies include volatility and the possibility that the negotiator may not be the most powerful person in the room, leading to potential pushback [9][10] - Falcao advises that when dealing with hard bargainers, the focus should be on achieving desired outcomes rather than defeating the opponent, emphasizing the importance of preparation and understanding power dynamics [12]

Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of self-interest and virtue, suggesting that individuals can act in their own self-interest while still contributing positively to society [1][3] - It highlights the importance of trust in social interactions, where high trust leads to better cooperation and mutual benefits [2] - The idea of freedom is emphasized, arguing that a less scheduled life allows for more spontaneity and joy, which can enhance productivity [5][6][8] Group 2 - The article suggests that true learning occurs when individuals act on their curiosity immediately, rather than waiting for scheduled times [10][12] - It discusses the importance of iterating and learning from experiences, proposing that mastery comes from repeated attempts rather than fixed time commitments [22][30] - The concept of anxiety is explored, indicating that it often arises from conflicting desires and unresolved issues, and that reflecting on mortality can help alleviate stress [23][25] Group 3 - The article addresses the societal pressures that shape desires, suggesting that many aspirations are influenced by external expectations rather than personal interests [20][21] - It emphasizes the need for individuals to observe their thoughts objectively, which can lead to better decision-making and a clearer understanding of personal desires [16][18] - The discussion includes the paradox of happiness and success, proposing that true happiness can enhance one's drive for meaningful achievements [34][35]

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of self-interest and virtue in society, suggesting that individuals should act in their own interest while maintaining moral standards [4][5] - High-trust societies are characterized by cooperation, leading to better outcomes for all involved, as individuals can rely on each other to achieve common goals [5] - The concept of "defaulting to no" is introduced, advocating for a mindset where individuals prioritize their own desires and needs over societal expectations [20] Group 2 - The discussion highlights the significance of personal freedom and its impact on productivity, suggesting that a less scheduled life can lead to greater efficiency and creativity [11][12] - The idea of finding one's "game" is presented, where individuals should engage in activities that feel enjoyable and fulfilling, leading to a competitive advantage [15][16] - The importance of iteration and experience in achieving mastery is discussed, with the notion that true expertise comes from repeated practice and learning [29] Group 3 - The article addresses the relationship between happiness and success, proposing that true fulfillment comes from aligning personal desires with actions, rather than merely pursuing external achievements [40][41] - It suggests that happiness can enhance success by fostering a more focused and calm mindset, allowing individuals to pursue meaningful goals [40] - The narrative encourages self-reflection and the examination of one's desires, advocating for a life led by personal values rather than societal pressures [22][25]

自上任以来，美国总统特朗普已充分让全球人民看到了他的"喜怒无常"，关税政策朝令夕改也是见怪不怪了。由此带来的不确定性令人苦不堪言，从企业到 各国政府均被牵涉其中。 就在刚刚过去的周日，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）周日再次为特朗普辩护称，在与其他国家的贸易谈判中使用"战略不确定性"，是特朗普 的谈判策略。 当被问及特朗普的关税给美国小企业带来的不确定性时，贝森特在一档节目中说，"就我们与全球各国的糟糕贸易形势而言，我们不是一夜之间就走到这一 步的。特朗普总统正在重新谈判这些问题，战略上的不确定性是一种谈判策略。" 贝森特说，"我们不想与中国脱钩。特朗普总统实际上想要中国开放商业。所以我们想把制造业带回来。" "在新冠疫情期间，我们意识到我们有一些非常战略性的不足，无论是药品、半导体、钢铁还是其他产品。因此，中期目标是尽快恢复这些战略产业。"他补 充说。 上周一，中美发布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明：双方承诺将于2025年5月14日前采取一系列举措，包括修改和取消对彼此商品加征的关税，以及暂停或取消非 关税反制措施。这也意味着这两个全球最大的经济体之间的贸易摩擦有所缓和，向全球释放了积极信号 ...

其实这篇文章应该是周末发的，但我当时想先和Mike把这个内容的播客做了再发，结果周末嗓子哑了没法做播 客，结果就等到了今天。昨天有朋友问我为啥觉得这次和2018年关税有点不一样，以及为什么会觉得中国在结构 性改革上非常迟疑。所以我就一并简单分享一下。 我非常讨厌中国古代儒学里面那种微言大义，然后一天到晚钻牛角尖，我的演讲和文字技巧更多学习的是25～45 岁的毛泽东，1905～1935年的托洛茨基，以及大萧条后的罗斯福，这些演讲和文章，都有一个特点就是能用大家 都看得懂的方法写出先知一样的判断，这是一种我一直追求的境界。 我想先说一下关税的问题。在之前的文章里面，我记得反复说过，我们不能指望欧洲日本或者其他国家用中国一 样的反应去面对美国。然后一群人会把这个现象解读为他们跪了，一群人会把这个现象解读为中国不合群。但其 实这是非常正常的。 欧洲和日本是第一次面对关税的威胁，这对于他们来说是第一次加入这个关税博弈，而中国是不知道多少次加入 这个关税博弈，所以之前中国反击的时候，有很多声音说中国应该躺平，或者认为中国处在囚徒困境里面，这多 少都属于半桶水的水平。因为多次博弈和单次博弈最大的区别在于，多次博弈的人是会带 ...

贸易缓和刺激航运板块大涨，周二集运欧线主力合约开盘涨超10%，A股、港股港口航运掀涨停潮，国 航远洋涨超23%，宁波海运、宁波远洋、海通发展等海运股涨停，昨晚道琼斯运输指数一度暴涨 6.52%。 | 序号 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 国航远洋 | 9.50 c | 23.54% | | 2 | 東米道海 | 29.87 c | 17.74% | | 3 | 宁波海运 | 3.36 c | 10.16% | | 4 | 宁波远洋 | 9.19 c | 10.06% | | 5 | 海通发展 | 8.90 c | 10.01% | | 6 | 凤凰航运 | 5.09 c | 9.94% | | 7 | 锦江航运 | 11.81 c | 6.21% | | 8 | 中远海控 | 15.67 c | 2.75% | | 9 | 盛航股份 | 17.00 c | 1.67% | | 10 | 米厘胶尖 | 14.76 c | 1.65% | | 11 | 中远海特 | 6.42 c | 1.58% | | 12 | 招商南油 | 2.77 c ...

点击蓝字，关注我们 当前形势下的协议评估:在当前形势下，若要达成一项消除美国贸易逆差的协议，要求取消除10% 双边关税以外的所有关税。但从博弈论矩阵来看，达成这样的协议并非最优选择。在"达成协 议"和"不达成协议"的对比中，双方的收益和损失情况表明，此时达成全面协议对双方来说都不是 最佳决策。 部分协议的探讨:有人提议将关税降至65% 达成部分协议，对此也进行了分析。即使中国出口下降 40%，美国出口下降 20%，中国会从部分协议中受益，但美国会拒绝这项部分协议。这是因为美 国必须至少获得目前从关税或更多贸易中获得的 1690 亿美元收益，而在这种情况下无法满足美国 的利益需求。 可能达成协议的条件:经过研究发现，如果在部分协议下，中国出口下降幅度小于 40%，美国出口 下降幅度小于 20%，部分协议就有可能达成。例如，在关税为 70% 时，估计中国出口将下降 25%，美国出口将下降 12.5%，此时部分协议对双方都比当前状况更有利。甚至在关税为60%，中 国出口下降25% 或更低幅度时，协议也有可能达成。 这说明，贸易降幅和关税水平是影响协议能 否达成的关键因素。 三、关税调整对贸易逆差的影响 关税与贸易逆 ...