文｜壹号健康消费 太史詹姆斯 刘强东在关注什么？ 从刚刚结束的618来看，即时零售是一场不能忽略的战役，与此同时，京东旗下独立上市公司——京东健康，正在攫取刘强东和许冉更多注意力。 近期集中登场的广告式打法就是力证之一。在京东最重要的定制晚会《京东618开心夜》，「京东买药」是独家冠名，口播与logo露出彰显重要性，而从下 半年关注度较高的头部综艺《花儿与少年7》的路透来看，「京东健康」的物料随处可见，俨然一副重金营销的架势。 一方面，健康消费这件事俨然成为趋势所在，且这一门类的绝对电商王者还没有诞生，另一方面，诚如去年北京推进医保线上支付时，京东就和美团双双成 为首批入选平台，医疗电商的星辰大海摆在眼前，而「买药秒送」又是一场属于即时零售的冲刺。 当然，京东健康也是相当争气的，其2024年全年业绩总收入达到581.6亿，年度盈利为41.57亿，相比2023年增幅94%，虽然从2020年分拆上市首年至今，京 东健康历经盈利与亏损的沉沉浮浮，但「卖药+服务」让其找到了增长引擎，目前的规模和态势来看，京东健康仍牢牢稳住了医药电商B2C一哥之位。 京东健康总营收趋势 图源：百度股市通 面向未来，怎么用好医疗大模型和 ...

7 月 9 日，中国连锁经营协会（CCFA）发布的 "2024 年中国超市 TOP100" 榜单。 从榜单数据来看，2024 年超市 TOP100 企业的销售规模达到约 9000 亿元，较上年同比增长 0.3%；而门店总数为 2.52 万个，同比下降 9.8%。 与上一年度的数据相比，企业的销售规模呈现出微弱增长的态势，但门店总数却有所下滑。这一现象一方面反映出当前零售市场整体增长面临压力，线下 门店的扩张步伐有所放缓，行业发展遭遇一定挑战；另一方面也体现出在市场竞争中，部分企业通过优化经营策略、提升运营效率等方式实现了增长，行 业分化的趋势愈发明显。 具体分析来看，在这些企业中，有 42 家企业的销售额实现了同比增长，25 家企业的门店数量有所增加。其中，能够同时实现销售额与门店数量双增长的 企业共有 14 家。 头部企业：强者恒强，优势显著 在 2024 年的榜单中，沃尔玛（中国）投资有限公司、康成投资（中国）有限公司（大润发）、盒马（中国）有限公司继续占据榜单前三甲。这三家企业 在 2024 年的销售规模总计分别达到 15884490 万元、7641640 万元、7500000 万元，销售同比分别增长 ...

外卖大战步入下半场 今年盛夏，外卖大战在千亿级资本的碰撞中，迎来了历史性变革，而外卖大战也开始进入下半场，开启 新一轮的竞争。 日前，美团官方宣布，美团即时零售日订单量已突破1.2亿单，其中，餐饮订单量超1亿单。此后不久， 淘宝闪购也传来捷报，日订单量超8000万，非餐饮订单超1300万。同时，淘宝闪购日活跃用户超过2 亿，平台活跃度和用户粘性得到了极大提升。 具体来看，盒马作为新零售的领军者，扩张极为迅猛。截至目前，盒马鲜生已经开设超430家门店，而 盒马NB的门店数量也超300家。同时，盒马CEO严筱磊表示，盒马新财年还将持续狂奔，计划在2025年 开近100家门店，进驻几十个新城市。 京东七鲜在京津地区也实现了快速扩张。公开信息显示，京东七鲜在北京的线下门店已有28家，在天津 有10家。而且，京东七鲜计划在今年年底前在北京实现100个店仓全覆盖。近期，京东七鲜还与天津嘉 里汇签约，将在天津再添一家商场门店。 小象超市作为美团的自营零售业务，目前已经在全国范围内开设了18座城，总计开仓数量已超过800 个。在此基础上，小象超市还将继续扩大覆盖范围，逐步拓展到所有一二线城市，进一步提升自己的市 场影响力。 ...

即时零售正在上演反转剧情！美团优选刚官宣转型，市场热度反倒飙涨。2022-2025 年，曾被唱衰的前置仓模式闯过难关，巨头们的战略洗牌让行业走向 更扑朔迷离。而扎根福厦的朴朴超市，既靠独门打法在乱战中站稳脚跟，又正被汹涌的竞争推向命运的十字路口。 商品结构：从生鲜为主到品类优化 值得注意的是，朴朴的商品结构正在悄然调整。生鲜品类占比从峰值 60% 逐步降至当前的 50%，按规划未来三年将进一步下调至 45%，通过提升毛利更 高的标品占比优化盈利结构。选品策略上注重本地化渗透，比如在福州市场针对性上架祭灶甘蔗、线面等土特产，配合骑手主动询问代扔垃圾等增值服 务，从消费场景细节处培育用户粘性，有效满足日常零碎采购需求。 自有品牌：发力提速但差距仍存 自有品牌是朴朴近年发力的重点领域。自 2023 年启动相关业务以来，围绕 "优赐" 核心品牌构建起涵盖生鲜、水饮等多品类的产品矩阵。截至 2024 年 10 月，自有品牌 SKU 已突破 750 个，年末销售额占比目标锁定 15%。但横向对比来看，与盒马等头部玩家仍有差距。以热销的瑞士卷为例，朴朴推出的小 份装虽契合独居群体需求，但综合单价与克重计算，盒马产品的性价比 ...

7月10日，"美团免单"的话题冲上热搜榜首，引起网友关注。有网友反映，收到了美团外卖免单的通知短信，似乎在说明外卖平台补贴"大战"又升级 了，也有网友分享"免单攻略"。 阿里方面，7月7日，淘宝闪购、饿了么联合宣布：日订单数超8000万；非餐饮订单超1300万；淘宝闪购日活跃用户超过2亿。7月9日，淘宝闪购还最新 发布了500亿补贴首周成绩单。 百福控股总裁王小龙近日对证券时报记者表示，"外卖平台为争夺流量而展开激烈的补贴竞争。总体来看，短期内这对消费者和部分商家是利好的。但 从长期来看，一些商家在线上陷入赔本赚吆喝的状态。平台为餐饮等行业和消费者提供更多价值，应该体现在提供额外服务、提升品质上，而不是在 线上不断打价格战，相信外卖行业最终会进入稳定期，最理想的状态是实现平台、商家与消费者的三方共赢。" 之前于7月2日，淘宝闪购宣布，将在未来12个月内发放500亿元平台补贴。具体而言，将在消费者端发放大额红包、免单卡，并推出官方补贴一口价商 品等，以简单、透明、直接的模式给消费者带去实惠。而在商家侧，也将通过店铺补贴、商品补贴、配送补贴、免佣减佣等举措，保障商家合理利润 空间，促进商家盈利增长。 美团方面虽然 ...

Core Insights - The era of relying on price differences from famous liquor brands is over, and the trend of low-margin, high-volume sales will dominate the retail channels in the future [1] - The penetration rate of instant retail in the liquor market is currently about 1%, with a market size of nearly 20 billion yuan, expected to reach 6% penetration and over 100 billion yuan by 2027 [1] - The future competitive landscape in instant retail will focus on enhancing supply chain efficiency, deep integration between liquor companies and platforms, and localized market services [1][4] Company Developments - 1919 Group is undergoing significant changes, including the potential elimination of 1,500 franchise stores by the end of the year to ensure the quality of franchisees and consumer experience [2] - The company is transitioning from a traditional B2C/O2O model to an F2B2C model, shifting its profit model from "price differences on famous liquor" to "strategic branding" [2] - 1919 has launched a new business format called "1919 Liquor Life Hall," which combines various sales strategies to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency [1][2] Market Trends - Instant retail is entering a period of rapid growth, with projections indicating that the market size for instant retail will reach approximately 780 billion yuan in 2024, growing over 20% year-on-year [3] - The instant retail penetration rate in Sichuan is expected to reach 10%, significantly higher than the average of about 3% in other provinces [3] - The mixed business model is becoming mainstream in the liquor retail industry, with instant retail accounting for 12% of the market share [3] Consumer Behavior - The growth of instant retail in liquor is driven by the demand for "immediate consumption" among younger consumers, who prefer convenience and quick access to products [4][5] - Nighttime orders account for over 35% of liquor sales in instant retail, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards spontaneous purchases during non-business hours [5] - New consumption scenarios, such as camping and gifting during holidays, are expanding the market for instant retail in liquor [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the surge in demand for outdoor sports equipment and apparel during the summer, with instant retail becoming the mainstream choice for consumers [1][2] - Instant retail has seen significant growth, with sales of running shoes, sports T-shirts, and basketball shoes increasing over 200% year-on-year since June, while swimming and cycling products have also seen over 100% growth [1][2] - Major brands like Decathlon have experienced substantial sales increases, with swimming gear sales doubling and sun protection clothing sales increasing by 30 times during promotional events [1][3] Group 2 - The convenience of instant retail has been particularly beneficial during holiday seasons, with children's and father's day sales seeing a 70% increase in product quantity and nearly 60% increase in transaction value for sports apparel [2] - Recent sporting events have further fueled consumer enthusiasm for sports, with significant sales growth in related products, such as a 120% increase in ball-related goods and a doubling of swimming gear sales in Jiangsu province [2] - Decathlon has partnered with Meituan to launch seasonal activities and services, resulting in nearly 200% year-on-year growth in overall sales during promotional periods [3][4] Group 3 - The trend of purchasing larger items through instant retail is on the rise, with Decathlon's children's bicycles seeing a tenfold increase in sales during the first month of availability on Meituan [4] - Meituan's instant delivery services for larger sports equipment ensure safe and timely delivery, making it easier for consumers to purchase these items [4] - The collaboration between major sports retailers and Meituan is expected to continue driving growth, with Decathlon projected to achieve record order volumes in 2024 and further doubling sales by 2025 [4]

前段时间，高盛隔空给外卖大战算了一笔账： 预计未来一年里，阿里外卖、京东将分别亏损410亿与260 亿人民币，美团EBIT（息税前利润）减少250亿。 近千亿钞票撒进焚化炉，只为让全国人民多喝两杯奶茶。 连月的混战在上个周末再迎高峰，"满18减18"、"一天三顿不超过10块钱"的夸张补贴，与外卖平台不断 刷新的大字报两相呼应，勾勒出外卖市场的烈火烹油。 不过铁打的美团，流水的对手，曾经凶悍的京东休养生息，阿里接棒发起冲锋，豪掷五百亿补贴宣言， 逼得美团紧急上强度。截至周一，阿里淘宝闪购与美团即时零售的日订单分别突破8000万单与1.2亿单。 外卖的双寡头格局由来已久，京东高调进场以前，美团和饿了么合计占据超过九成市场份额，纵有抖音 强攻本地生活、小红书试水到店酒旅，外卖都是各大平台默契绕行的无人区。 久攻本地生活不下的阿里也曾选择躺平，新零售业务出清，饿了么埋头减亏。但人到中年最怕被卷，过 去三个月，阿里本地生活阵容巨变，新近整合的淘宝闪购走到台前，已成活化石的饿了么退居幕后，连 同飞猪一起被打包送往隔壁电商事业群。 吴泳铭的内部信如此概括这一系列变化： "集中目标，统一作战。" 轻描淡写的八个字背后，是一场 ...

摩根士丹利于7月10日发布研究报告，将阿里巴巴美股目标价从180美元下调至150美元。该行指 出，预计阿里巴巴在截至6月的第一财季，于外卖和闪购业务上的投入已达约100亿元，这将导致其 短期盈利承压。 摩根士丹利进一步预计，阿里在第二财季的相关投入可能翻倍至200亿元，将拖累其淘天集团与本地 生活集团的EBITA同比下跌超过40%。尽管如此，该行仍看好阿里巴巴AI赋能的潜力，并维持其电 商偏好排序：阿里 > 美团 > 京东。 此次目标价下调的背景是阿里巴巴、美团、京东三大平台在即时零售领域展开的激烈竞争，尤其是围 绕"外卖"业务的补贴大战。截至发稿，今日阿里巴巴港股股价下跌0.68%至102.2港元，京东股价 下跌2.47%至122.2港元，美团股价下跌1.43%至117.5港元。 同样关注阿里近期动向的开源证券，在其7月7日的研报中表示，尽管淘天集团短期内因加大闪购投 入而面临压力，但电商技术服务费贡献的收入增量，以及积极投入AI基础设施建设有望推动云业务增 长提速，可部分对冲资本开支（capex）增加的影响。该机构看好阿里中长期在用户、供应链及物流 方面的优势，有助于其抢占即时零售市场份额。基于此，开源证 ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba is expected to increase investments in instant retail and food delivery services in the coming quarters, which will significantly impact short-term profitability, but these factors are already reflected in the stock price. The strong growth momentum in cloud computing and leading position in AI provide long-term value support [1][7]. Group 1: Investment Strategy and Market Position - HSBC maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba but lowers the target price from $176 to $150, indicating a potential upside of 38.9% from the current stock price of $107.99 [1]. - Since April 2024, competition in food delivery and instant retail has intensified, with Meituan launching a three-year support plan worth 100 billion RMB and JD.com initiating a one-year subsidy project worth 10 billion RMB [1][2]. - Alibaba's food delivery strategy was launched later, with a one-year subsidy plan worth 500 billion RMB starting on July 2 [2]. Group 2: Market Share and Growth - Alibaba's market share in food delivery and instant retail has rapidly increased from over 20% in 2024 to 36% by July 5, 2025, while Meituan holds 55% and JD.com 9% [2]. - This growth is attributed to the integration of Ele.me and Fliggy into Taobao and Tmall, leadership consolidation, aggressive subsidy strategies, and traffic support [2]. Group 3: Financial Projections - HSBC has raised revenue forecasts for Alibaba for FY26-28 by 3-8%, reflecting accelerated growth in instant retail and food delivery orders, but has lowered profit expectations by 7-22% [9]. - For FY26, Alibaba is expected to incur losses of 2.7 RMB per order in food delivery and 3.7 RMB per order in instant shopping, with an overall loss of 55 billion RMB in local life services [9][10]. - The peak of investment is anticipated in the September quarter, with normalization expected in the second half of FY26 [9]. Group 4: Cloud Computing and AI Outlook - HSBC remains optimistic about Alibaba's cloud computing prospects, forecasting over 20% year-on-year growth in cloud revenue for FY26, driven by strong AI demand [10][16]. - Although there may be quarterly fluctuations in cloud business gross margins, they are expected to maintain a high single-digit level [10]. - In the generative AI infrastructure as a service (GenAI IaaS) market, Alibaba ranks first with a market share of 23.5% in the second half of 2024, benefiting from its leading scale, strong product capabilities, and large enterprise customer base [16].