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国泰君安期货黑色与建材原木周度报告-20250427
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-27 06:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of mainstream delivery products shows different trends, with some prices in Shandong slightly decreasing and others remaining flat, while European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply [4]. - The supply of logs from New Zealand is expected to reach 1.76 million cubic meters in April, with 25 out of 29 vessels departing in April heading to China [4][7]. - The demand and inventory situation vary among ports. The total inventory of four major ports increased by 77,100 cubic meters compared to the previous week, with some ports experiencing inventory increases and others decreases [5][11]. - The futures market shows a weak and volatile trend, with the main contract LG2507 closing price down 3.2% from the previous week, and the monthly spread has widened [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - Spot price: For the mainstream delivery product of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the Shandong market price is 780 yuan/cubic meter, slightly down from last week, and the Jiangsu market price is 785 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong is 870 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged. The price of 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong is 795 yuan/cubic meter, down 10 yuan/cubic meter from last week. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market have low trading volume and are in short supply [4]. - Supply: As of April 20, 29 vessels departed from New Zealand in April, 25 of which were bound for China and 4 for South Korea with load reduction. It is expected that about 16 vessels will arrive in April and 13 in May, with an expected arrival volume of 1.76 million cubic meters in April [4][7]. - Demand and inventory: As of the week of April 18, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 22,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 4,400 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 14,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 1,400 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 132,580 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 13,800 cubic meters, + 11.62%), Taicang Port's inventory was about 58,840 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 10,700 cubic meters, - 1.79%), Xinminzhou Port's inventory was about 30,350 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 18,400 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port's inventory was about 20,910 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 31,800 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 242,680 cubic meters, an increase of 77,100 cubic meters compared to the previous week [5][11]. - Other factors: As of the week of April 25, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,373 points, an increase of 112 points (+ 8.9%) from the previous week. The related Handysize Shipping Index BHSI was 568 points, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous week. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,347.84 points, a decrease of 1.7% from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index continued to decline. As of the week, the US dollar - to - Chinese yuan exchange rate decreased by 0.2% from the previous week, and the US dollar - to - New Zealand dollar exchange rate also decreased by 0.2% from the previous week [5][54]. 3.2 Supply - As of April 20, 29 vessels departed from New Zealand in April, 25 of which were bound for China and 4 for South Korea with load reduction. It is expected that about 16 vessels will arrive in April and 13 in May, with an expected arrival volume of 1.76 million cubic meters in April. Detailed vessel information including departure time, load, current port, next port, and expected arrival time is provided [7]. 3.3 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of April 18, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 22,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 4,400 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 14,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 1,400 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 132,580 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 13,800 cubic meters, + 11.62%), Taicang Port's inventory was about 58,840 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 10,700 cubic meters, - 1.79%), Xinminzhou Port's inventory was about 30,350 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 18,400 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port's inventory was about 20,910 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 31,800 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 242,680 cubic meters, an increase of 77,100 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Detailed historical inventory data and changes of each port are also presented [11]. 3.4 Market Trends - As of April 25, the closing price of the main contract LG2507 was 796 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 3.2% from the previous week. The market showed a weak and volatile trend this week, with the fundamental supply - demand pattern remaining weak. The monthly spreads have widened, with the 07 - 09 monthly spread at - 16 yuan/cubic meter, the 07 - 11 monthly spread at - 20.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 monthly spread at - 4.5 yuan/cubic meter [14]. 3.5 Price and Spread - **Spot price**: The prices of different tree species and specifications in Shandong and Jiangsu markets show different trends, with some remaining flat and others slightly decreasing or increasing over different time periods [19][21]. - **Regional spread**: The price spreads between Shandong and Jiangsu for different tree species and specifications are presented through data and charts, showing different trends and magnitudes [22][33][41]. - **Species and specification spread**: The price spreads between different tree species and specifications, such as 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 40 +, 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 5.9 - meter radiata pine 40 +, etc., are presented through data and charts [41][43][45]. 3.6 Other - Shipping and exchange rate factors are analyzed. As of the week of April 25, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,373 points, an increase of 112 points (+ 8.9%) from the previous week. The related Handysize Shipping Index BHSI was 568 points, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous week. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,347.84 points, a decrease of 1.7% from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar - to - Chinese yuan exchange rate decreased by 0.2% from the previous week, and the US dollar - to - New Zealand dollar exchange rate also decreased by 0.2% from the previous week. Detailed historical data and changes of related indices and exchange rates are provided [54][53].