研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 据Kpler数据，2月22日当周，全球全口径（含在途）原油库存相对稳定，全球陆上原油库存小幅回落，但浮仓库存大幅攀升。分地区看，印度 及俄罗斯原油库存增加,中国、中东、欧洲库存回落。 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 2026-02-24 関 货 有 限 公 司 陆地库存趋稳, 浮 仓大幅攀升 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 s Company Limited 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究所 图表 8:欧洲原油库存 图表 2:全球原油浮仓 图表 1:全球陆上原油库存 十四 2026 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 2026 - 2025 · 2024 - 2023 - 2022 3600000 3550000 180000 35000000 150000 345000 120000 3400000 900000 3350000 33000000 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究 图表 3:全球陆地+浮仓原流 图表 4:全球陆地+海上(含 2024 - 2023 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - The report highlights the fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran, which have created mixed signals in the market. The report notes that oil prices have experienced a decline, with Brent and WTI prices recorded at $67.75 and $62.89 per barrel, respectively, as of February 13, 2026 [2][9] - The report indicates an increase in US crude oil production, reaching 13.713 million barrels per day, which is an increase of 498,000 barrels per day from the previous week. However, the number of active drilling rigs in the US has decreased by 3 to 409 rigs [33][42] - The report also mentions that US crude oil inventories have risen by 8.44 million barrels, marking a 1.02% increase, with commercial crude oil stocks increasing by 8.53 million barrels, a 2.03% rise [46] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of February 13, 2026, Brent crude futures settled at $67.75 per barrel, down $0.30 (-0.44%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures settled at $62.89 per barrel, down $0.66 (-1.04%) [2][23] Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms is 368, a decrease of 2 from the previous week, while the number of floating drilling platforms is 131, also down by 1 [26] Crude Oil Supply - US crude oil production is reported at 13.713 million barrels per day, an increase of 498,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The number of active drilling rigs is 409, down by 3 [33] Crude Oil Demand - US refinery crude oil processing volume is 16 million barrels per day, a decrease of 29,000 barrels per day from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 89.40%, down 1.1 percentage points [45] Crude Oil Inventory - Total US crude oil inventory stands at 844 million barrels, with a 1.02% increase of 8.529 million barrels from the previous week. Commercial crude oil inventory increased by 8.53 million barrels, a 2.03% rise [46] Related Companies - The report mentions several related companies, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that geopolitical tensions and inventory risks have reversed the market consensus on falling oil prices, with recent oil price movements being primarily driven by emotional trading [1][2] - Extreme winter weather in the U.S. has increased heating demand and disrupted oil production and refining, leading to a substantial contraction in physical oil supply, thus supporting international oil prices [1] - Recent supply disruptions, such as the interruption of operations at the Caspian pipeline and power outages at Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field, have also provided support for international oil prices [1] Group 2 - The U.S.-Iran negotiations have introduced volatility in oil prices, with initial diplomatic talks potentially seen as bearish, but subsequent news of possible breakdowns in talks led to a surge in oil prices [2] - The ongoing geopolitical struggle between the U.S. and Iran is expected to continue affecting international oil prices due to significant differences in their core demands [2] - The shipping situation in the Strait of Hormuz is critical, as approximately 20% to 30% of global oil maritime trade passes through this route, and any disruption could significantly impact global oil supply and prices [3] Group 3 - The current geopolitical risks, particularly the U.S.-Iran situation, are the main focus, while other regional conflicts have temporarily subsided [4] - The U.S. has historically acted to suppress oil prices to alleviate inflation and weaken Russia's position in the ongoing Ukraine conflict, but this influence is diminishing [4][5] - As the midterm elections approach, the U.S. may have less motivation to suppress oil prices, potentially leading to a rebound in oil prices [5] Group 4 - Recent analyses suggest that the oil market is experiencing a shift, with several institutions raising their oil price forecasts, indicating a potential upward trend in oil prices [5] - The first and second quarters typically see a strengthening trend in oil prices due to policy implementations and geopolitical events, although this calendar effect should not be solely relied upon for investment decisions [6] - The current upward trend in oil prices is supported by ongoing geopolitical conflicts and potential adjustments in OPEC policies, with expectations of a rebound in oil prices as high-cost production begins to exit the market [8]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，当地时间2月20日，美国石油协会（API）数据显示，上周美国API原油库存增加1340万 桶。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical uncertainties between the US and Iran continue to influence oil prices, with a recent increase in oil price levels observed, particularly on February 10, where the SC2604 contract saw a rise of over 1% [3][6]. Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical situation is identified as a core factor affecting short-term fluctuations in oil prices. The US has issued new guidelines for ships flying the American flag to avoid Iranian territorial waters and to refuse boarding by Iranian military forces [4][7]. - The OPEC oil production in January decreased to 28.34 million barrels per day, a reduction of 60,000 barrels per day from December, with Nigeria experiencing the largest decline. This decrease offsets production increases from some member countries, including Venezuela [4][7]. EU Sanctions - The European Union has proposed expanding sanctions against Russia to include ports in Georgia and Indonesia that handle Russian oil, marking the first time sanctions target third-country ports. The proposal includes listing the Kulevi port in Georgia and the Karimun port in Indonesia, prohibiting EU companies and individuals from trading with these ports [4][7]. Market Implications - The combination of fluctuating geopolitical factors and EU sanctions creates ongoing uncertainty in the supply chain, suggesting that oil prices are likely to experience continued volatility in the short term [4][7].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that due to the Middle - East tensions increasing the risk premium, crude oil prices have risen for two consecutive days. The geopolitical tensions this year have overshadowed concerns about global supply surplus. The market will get insights from a series of data this week, starting with the EIA's monthly short - term energy outlook report. The short - term oil prices are still affected by the Iran situation, and the global crude oil supply - demand fundamentals in the first and second quarters remain in a surplus state, not supporting high valuations [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily News - Middle - East tensions have pushed up the risk premium, causing oil prices to rise for two consecutive days. WTI crude oil has traded above $64 per barrel after a 1.7% increase in the past two trading days, and Brent crude oil has closed above $69. The US warned that US - flagged vessels should stay away from Iranian waters when passing through the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - The US Maritime Administration's warning was related to an incident on February 3 when a US - flagged oil tanker was approached by Iranian gunboats in the Strait of Hormuz [4]. - Venezuelan crude oil production has approached 1 million barrels per day after returning to the pre - cut level [4]. - US sanctions have led to a continuous decline in Russian crude oil production. In January, Russia's average daily crude oil production was 9.28 million barrels, 46,000 barrels per day less than in December and nearly 300,000 barrels per day lower than the quota in the OPEC+ agreement. The amount of Russian oil stored on tankers has been increasing [5]. 3.2 Inventory - This week, crude oil has fluctuated at a high level due to the Iran situation, with the month - spread falling and the North Sea Brent basis dropping to $1.005 per barrel. The US and Iran held a six - hour nuclear negotiation on Friday, with Iran calling it a good start. A second round of negotiations is expected in the coming days. - Globally, the total petroleum inventory has decreased. In the US, commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.455 million barrels and refined oil inventory decreased by 5.553 million barrels. Saudi Arabia adjusted the official selling prices of Arabian light crude oil for March. - In Singapore, all refined oil products have seen inventory accumulation. In ARA, crude oil inventory has decreased, while refined oil products, diesel, and gasoline have seen inventory accumulation. In China, both gasoline and diesel inventories have increased [5]. 3.3 EIA Report - For the week ending January 30, US crude oil exports decreased by 542,000 barrels per day to 4.047 million barrels per day [15]. - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 481,000 barrels to 13.215 million barrels per day [15]. - Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.455 million barrels to 420 million barrels, a decrease of 0.82% [15]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.802 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.94% [15]. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 214,000 barrels to 415.2 million barrels, an increase of 0.05% [15]. - US imports of commercial crude oil (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.201 million barrels per day, an increase of 559,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [15].

朗 货 有 限 公 司 欧洲库存回落, 中东库存回升 Kpler原油库存数据报告 s Company Limited 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 掘Kpler数据，2月8日当周，全球全口径（含在途）库存回落，开年以来整体呈现震荡态势。据Kpler数据，2月8日当周全球陆上原油库存回 升，主要由中国、中东库存增加带动，印度、欧洲、俄罗斯库存均回落。近两周欧洲库存回落明显。中东库存延续开年以来的升势。 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 图表 2:全球原油浮仓 图表 1:全球陆上原油库存 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 2026 · - 2023 - 2022 2024 36000000 3550000 3500000 345000 90000 335000 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研 资料来源:Kpler 中信明倍 图表 3:全球陆地+浮仓库 2024 - 2023 - 2022 3800000 3700000 4700000 3600000 35000000 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货 ...

Oil Price Sector - As of February 2, 2026, the prices for Brent crude, WTI crude, Russian ESPO crude, and Russian Urals crude are $66.30, $62.14, $52.90, and $65.49 per barrel respectively [1][2] - The price changes over the past month for major oil products are as follows: Brent crude (+9.14%), WTI crude (+8.41%), Russian ESPO (+8.34%), and Russian Urals (0.00%) [1][2] Oil Inventory Sector - According to the January 2026 report, IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil inventory changes of +372.24, +282.58, and -56.86 thousand barrels per day respectively, compared to December 2025 predictions which were -14.27, +56.86, and -59.34 thousand barrels per day [2] - The average forecast for global oil inventory changes in 2026 is +199.32 thousand barrels per day, which is a decrease of 5.58 thousand barrels per day from the December 2025 average [2] Oil Supply Sector - The January 2026 report from IEA, EIA, and OPEC forecasts global oil supply for 2026 to be 10,870.29, 10,765.19, and 10,593.14 million barrels per day respectively, showing increases of 251.53, 138.75, and 122.43 million barrels per day compared to 2025 [3] - For Q1 2026, the predicted global oil supply changes are +421.90, +353.62, and -166.79 thousand barrels per day from IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively [3] Oil Demand Sector - The January 2026 report indicates that IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil demand for 2026 to be 10,498.05, 10,482.61, and 10,650.00 million barrels per day respectively, with increases of 93.22, 113.81, and 136.34 million barrels per day compared to 2025 [4] - For Q1 2026, the forecasted changes in global oil demand are +84.07, +140.81, and +133.59 thousand barrels per day from IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively [4] Related Companies - Relevant listed companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) among others [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil refining industry [1]. Core Insights - The IEA and OPEC have revised down their global crude oil inventory expectations for 2026, indicating a more cautious outlook for supply and demand dynamics in the oil market [1][2]. - Predictions for global crude oil supply in 2026 are set at 10870.29, 10765.19, and 10593.14 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, showing an increase compared to 2025 [2][30]. - Global crude oil demand forecasts for 2026 are 10498.05, 10482.61, and 10650.00 thousand barrels per day, reflecting a modest increase from 2025 [2][30]. - The report highlights significant fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent crude at 66.30 USD/barrel, WTI at 62.14 USD/barrel, and a notable increase in prices over the past month [3][9]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Overview - As of February 2, 2026, Brent crude, WTI, Russian ESPO, and Urals prices are 66.30, 62.14, 52.90, and 65.49 USD/barrel respectively, with Brent and WTI showing increases of 9.14% and 8.41% over the past month [9]. Global Crude Oil Inventory - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global crude oil inventory changes for 2026 at +372.24, +282.58, and -56.86 thousand barrels per day respectively, with an average change of +199.32 thousand barrels per day [2][24]. Global Crude Oil Supply - The forecast for global crude oil supply in 2026 is 10870.29, 10765.19, and 10593.14 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC, with respective increases of +251.53, +138.75, and +122.43 thousand barrels per day compared to 2025 [2][30]. Global Crude Oil Demand - The demand forecast for 2026 is 10498.05, 10482.61, and 10650.00 thousand barrels per day, with increases of +93.22, +113.81, and +136.34 thousand barrels per day from 2025 [2][30]. Related Companies - The report mentions several related companies including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and PetroChina [3][4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [173]. Core Insights - The report highlights a decrease in U.S. crude oil production, with a current output of 13.22 million barrels per day, down by 480,000 barrels per day from the previous period [2]. - The average weekly price for Brent and WTI crude oil futures is reported at $67.7 and $63.5 per barrel, respectively, with Brent experiencing a decrease of $0.9 and WTI an increase of $0.1 compared to the previous week [2]. - U.S. crude oil inventories have shown a decline, with total inventories at 84.51 million barrels, down by 3.24 million barrels [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations, which could impact oil supply dynamics [1]. Summary by Sections 1. U.S. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices: Brent and WTI averaged $67.7 and $63.5 per barrel, with changes of -$0.9 and +$0.1 respectively [2]. - Crude oil inventories: Total U.S. crude oil inventory is 84.51 million barrels, with commercial inventories at 42.03 million barrels, showing a decrease of 3.24 million barrels [2]. - Crude oil production: U.S. production stands at 13.22 million barrels per day, down by 480,000 barrels per day [2]. - Crude oil demand: U.S. refinery crude processing is at 16.03 million barrels per day, down by 180,000 barrels per day [2]. - Crude oil imports and exports: U.S. imports are 6.20 million barrels per day, exports at 4.05 million barrels per day, resulting in a net import of 2.15 million barrels per day [2]. 2. U.S. Refined Oil Products - Refined oil prices: Average prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are $80, $101, and $89 per barrel, with changes of +$1.3, -$9.5, and -$5.1 respectively [2]. - Refined oil inventories: Gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories are 26 million barrels, 13 million barrels, and 4 million barrels, with changes of +690, -555, and -66 thousand barrels respectively [2]. - Refined oil production: Gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel production are 9.01 million, 4.81 million, and 1.71 million barrels per day, with changes of -570, -10, and -40 thousand barrels per day respectively [2]. - Refined oil demand: Gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel consumption are 8.15 million, 4.31 million, and 1.66 million barrels per day, with changes of -600, +240, and +290 thousand barrels per day respectively [2]. 3. Related Listed Companies - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [3]. - Companies to watch include Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation and China Oilfield Services Limited [3].