Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overnight crude oil oscillated, and the news was relatively calm. Geopolitical concerns may intensify as the US has formulated various response plans to control Venezuelan oil resources. The market is cautious about the future, and it is difficult to break through the upper pressure level in the short - term without geopolitical boost. SC2512 is expected to trade in the 460 - 470 range, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - For crude oil 2512, the fundamentals are neutral as the US government shutdown continues, OPEC+ may pause production increase in Q1 next year, and Venezuelan oil exports decreased in October. The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish. Inventory data indicates a decrease in US API and EIA inventories, which is also bullish. The 20 - day moving average is flat with the price above it, showing a neutral signal. The main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil are long - increasing, which is bullish [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Kazakhstan's national energy company raised the 2025 production estimates of Kashagan and Karachaganak oil fields, with a combined increase of 510,000 tons. - The US government shutdown entered the 35th day on Tuesday, affecting federal employees, public services, and food stamp supply. There are signs that senators may be approaching an agreement. - OPEC's oil production in October increased by 300,000 barrels per day compared to September, but the growth rate slowed down [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Focus - Bullish factors include positive signals from China - US trade negotiations, increased sanctions on Russia, and OPEC+ pausing production increase in Q1 next year. - Bearish factors include the easing of the Middle East situation, the risk of US government shutdown, and OPEC+ considering further production increase. The short - term market is driven by intensified geopolitical conflicts, while the medium - to - long - term faces the risk of increased supply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Inventory Data**: US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.02 million barrels in the week ending October 24, and EIA inventory decreased by 6.858 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 211,000 barrels. Cushing area inventory increased by 1.334 million barrels in the week ending October 24. As of November 4, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 4.202 million barrels [3]. 3.5 Position Data - As of September 23, the net long position of WTI crude oil increased. As of October 28, the net long position of Brent crude oil also increased [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the week ending November 2nd, global on - land crude oil inventories rebounded, floating storage inventories continued to rise significantly, and the full - scope (including in - transit) inventories reached a new high for the year, with high inventory pressure compared to the same period last year. Regionally, weekly inventories in China and Europe increased, while those in India, Russia, and the Middle East decreased, and Russia's weekly inventory dropped to the lowest level in the same period in the past five years [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Global Crude Oil Inventory Situation**: The full - scope (including in - transit) global crude oil inventories reached a new high for the year, and there was still significant inventory pressure year - on - year [2]. - **Regional Crude Oil Inventory Changes**: Weekly inventories in China and Europe accumulated, while those in India, Russia, and the Middle East decreased. Russia's weekly inventory fell to the lowest level in the same period in the past five years [2].

Core Insights - The main point of the article is the increase in oil prices due to a significant drop in U.S. crude oil inventories, which exceeded market expectations [1] Oil Price Movement - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures rose by 0.35%, closing at $60.36 per barrel [1] - Brent crude oil futures increased by 0.64%, ending at $64.24 per barrel [1] Inventory Data - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decrease in crude oil inventories of 6.858 million barrels for the previous week [1] - This decline was significantly higher than the expected reduction of 0.211 million barrels [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the week ending October 26, the global on - land crude oil inventory decreased slightly, the floating storage inventory increased significantly, and the full - scope (including in - transit) inventory declined from a high level. Year - on - year, the inventory pressure remained high. The decrease in on - land inventory was observed in China, Russia, India, and the Middle East [2] 3. Summary by Related Content - **Global Crude Oil Inventory Trends** - The global on - land crude oil inventory decreased slightly, the floating storage inventory increased significantly, and the full - scope (including in - transit) inventory declined from a high level [2] - **Regional Inventory Changes** - The decrease in on - land inventory was reflected in China, Russia, India, and the Middle East [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report -中美贸易摩擦影响减弱，俄美谈判破裂以及美国再次采购战略石油储备利多油价 [4] -供应端，OPEC+增产幅度不及预期且实际产量增幅弱于预期，增产进度仍需观察；需求端，美国需求旺盛，中国需求回稳，需求端整体稳中有升 [4] -关税问题负面影响逐渐消退，原油基本面较好，对油价有一定支撑作用，建议轻仓试多 [4] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies - **Inventory**: 上周美国原油、汽油及馏分油库存下降，因炼油活动和需求增强。美国商业原油库存减少96.1万桶，至4.228亿桶；汽油库存减少210万桶，至2.167亿桶；馏分油库存减少150万桶，至1.156亿桶 [4][21] - **Supply**: OPEC+决定10月开始增产，此轮增产意味着开始解除第二层减产计划，但实际产量增幅不及预期；美国原油产量上升至1360万桶/日，但页岩油产量触及天花板，供应端存在不确定性 [4][31][35] - **Demand**: 美国炼厂原油加工量增加，产能利用率上升，石油总供应量增加，需求强劲；中国9月原油加工较快增长，需求回稳 [4][45] - **View and Strategy**: 中美贸易摩擦影响减弱等因素利多油价，建议轻仓试多 [4] 3.2 Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: 提供了2024 - 2025年全球原油产量、消费量、库存净提取量等数据 [6] - **Industrial Chain Structure**: 展示了原油从常减压装置开始，经过一系列加工转化为各种产品的产业链结构 [10] 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - 展示了国内外价差、月间价差、INE原油期现价差、BRENT原油期限价差、运费指数、港口运价等图表 [12][15][16][17] 3.4 Inventory - **US Inventory**: 美国原油、汽油及馏分油库存下降，东海岸炼油厂原油净进口量增加 [4][21] - **China Inventory**: 中国6 - 9月库存增量有所回落，因国内原油加工需求环比回升 [23] - **Crude Oil Warehouse Receipts**: 上海能源交易所INE原油仓单近期维持低位 [27] 3.5 Supply Side - **OPEC Production**: OPEC+决定增产，10月开始解除第二层减产计划；OPEC 9月原油产量增加52.4万桶/日 [31] - **US Production**: 上周美国原油产量维持在1360万桶/日，页岩油产量触及天花板，未来增产概率较低 [35] - **Global Production**: 供应端存在不确定性，包括OPEC+增产进程、俄罗斯受制裁、美国页岩油产量瓶颈等问题 [39] 3.6 Demand Side - **China Demand**: 中国9月原油加工较快增长，出行需求有望拉动原油消费；9月原油进口量为4,725.20万吨，1 - 9月累计进口量同比增加2.6%；9月成品油出口量为514.1万吨，1 - 9月累计出口量同比减少4.9% [45][50][53] - **US Demand**: 美国炼厂原油加工量增加，产能利用率上升，石油总需求强劲，季节性需求略好于去年同期 [55][58]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - Trump's statement that he won't meet Putin soon has made the prospect of the Russia - Ukraine situation uncertain and in a deadlock. Attacks on Russian energy facilities continue, and the attack on Kazakhstan's gas plant will affect its condensate production. However, the fundamental factors driving oil prices down have not reversed, so oil prices will maintain a weak pattern [2] 3. Summary by Related Contents Market News and Important Data - On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the December - delivery light crude oil futures price rose $1.26 to $58.50 per barrel, a 2.2% increase; the December - delivery London Brent crude oil futures price rose $1.27 to $62.59 per barrel, a 2.07% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 1.65% at 449 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending October 20, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE was 20.014 million barrels, an increase of 2.202 million barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventory decreased by 851,000 barrels to 7.879 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increased by 668,000 barrels to 3.615 million barrels, and heavy residue fuel oil inventory increased by 2.385 million barrels to 8.52 million barrels [1] - On October 22, Ukraine's armed forces destroyed a military factory in Russia's Mordovia Republic and a refinery in Russia's Dagestan Republic. The military factory in Mordovia is an important production site for anti - infantry mines and related devices, and the refinery in Dagestan provides fuel for the Russian Caspian Fleet [1] - As of the week ending October 18, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory increased by 116,865 kiloliters to 10,404,846 kiloliters, gasoline inventory increased by 57,037 kiloliters to 1,620,675 kiloliters, and kerosene inventory increased by 21,278 kiloliters to 2,834,521 kiloliters. The average refinery operating rate was 86.2%, up from 85.9% the previous week [1] Investment Logic - The uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine situation due to Trump's statement and continuous attacks on Russian energy facilities, along with the impact on Kazakhstan's condensate production, but the unchanged fundamental factors driving oil prices down lead to a weak oil price outlook [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate weakly; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Additional News - Russia's energy minister said Russia is carrying out a planned attack on Ukraine's energy system [3] - Indonesia's energy minister said the country's biodiesel consumption from January to September reached 10.57 million kiloliters [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the changes in U.S. oil inventory and production data for the week ending October 17, indicating a decrease in both oil exports and domestic production [1] Group 2 - U.S. crude oil exports fell by 263,000 barrels per day, reaching 4.203 million barrels per day [1] - Domestic crude oil production decreased by 7,000 barrels per day, down to 1,362.9 million barrels per day [1] - Commercial crude oil inventories, excluding strategic reserves, decreased by 1 million barrels, totaling 422.8 million barrels, a decline of 0.2% [1] Group 3 - The four-week average supply of U.S. oil products was 20.474 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the same period last year [1] - Strategic petroleum reserve inventories increased by 800,000 barrels, rising to 40.86 million barrels, an increase of 0.2% [1] - Crude oil imports, excluding strategic reserves, were 5.918 million barrels per day, an increase of 39,300 barrels per day from the previous week [1]

21日国际金银价格大跌 全球贸易局势趋向缓和的迹象削弱了市场避险需求，加之黄金价格本周一刚刚创下历史新高，技术面存 在超买因素，市场积累了大量投机头寸，不少投资者赶在美国9月CPI数据公布前获利了结，引发国际 金价大跌。白银市场也出现追跌黄金的行情，由于市场规模更小，白银价格波动更为剧烈，纽约白银期 货价格当天跌超7%。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所12月黄金期价收于每盎司4109.1美元，跌幅为5.74%； 纽约商品交易所12月白银期价收于每盎司47.70美元，跌幅为7.16%。 21日国际油价上涨 原油期货方面，美国石油协会周二发布的数据显示，上周美国原油库存环比减少约298万桶，降幅远超 预期，在一定程度上缓解了投资者对美国石油需求低迷的担忧，国际油价周二上涨。截至收盘，纽约商 品交易所11月交货的轻质原油期货价格收于每桶57.82美元，涨幅为0.52%；12月交货的伦敦布伦特原油 期货价格收于每桶61.32美元，涨幅为0.51%。 押注提价策略 可口可乐与通用汽车财报优于预期 公司财报方面，可口可乐公司周二盘前发布的2025财年三季度财报显示，公司当季营收达到预期，净利 润同比大幅增长30%，达到36.9亿 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report In the week ending October 19th, the global on - land crude oil inventory decreased slightly, while the floating storage inventory reached the highest level of the year. The full - scope (including in - transit) inventory declined from a high level. Recently, the retroactive adjustment range of in - transit cargoes has been relatively large, and overall, inventory pressure is still evident. Regionally, inventories in China and Russia decreased, while those in India, Europe, and the Middle East increased [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog - **Global Crude Oil Inventory**: The on - land inventory decreased slightly, the floating storage inventory hit a yearly high, and the full - scope inventory dropped from a high. There were large retroactive adjustments for in - transit cargoes, and inventory pressure remained [1]. - **Regional Inventory Changes**: In China and Russia, inventories decreased; in India, Europe, and the Middle East, inventories increased [1].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's payment innovation meeting is the focal point of the week, with attention on regulatory stances regarding digital currencies, AI, and fintech [1] - The speeches by Governors Waller and Barr may signal new policy directions, providing clues for future decision-making [1] - The CPI data to be released on Friday is a key market indicator; a cooling core CPI could weaken dollar support, benefiting gold and risk assets [1] Group 2 - The API and EIA inventory reports, along with drilling data, will guide the supply-demand dynamics in the energy market [2] - Rising inventories may pressure oil prices, while declining inventories or heightened geopolitical risks could lead to short-term rebounds [2] - Market volatility is expected to increase due to inflation data and Federal Reserve officials' speeches; investors are advised to maintain light positions and respond flexibly to sudden fluctuations [2]