Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that oil prices will experience short - term range - bound fluctuations and a medium - term bearish configuration. The issuance of China's third - batch of refined oil export quotas, along with factors such as the situation of local refineries and the future of sensitive oil, are important factors affecting the oil market. The type of oil absorbed by SPR in the future is a core factor influencing oil price trends [3][4]. 3. Summary by Section Market News and Important Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's October - delivery light crude oil futures dropped 48 cents to $63.57 per barrel, a 0.75% decline; November - delivery London Brent crude oil futures fell 51 cents to $67.44 per barrel, also a 0.75% decline. SC crude oil's main contract closed down 1.51% at 489 yuan per barrel [1]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 13 was 231,000, lower than the expected 240,000, and the previous value was revised from 263,000 to 264,000 [2]. - The EU is formulating measures to accelerate the phased - out of Russian natural gas. Analysts expect the global natural gas market to turn into a supply surplus in the second half of next year, reducing the risk of supply pressure and price spikes in Europe [2]. - US President Trump stated that further oil price cuts are needed, claiming that if oil prices are lowered, the Russia - Ukraine conflict will end [2]. - French President Macron said that UN sanctions on Iran will be restored [2]. - China's cumulative new energy vehicle sales have exceeded 40 million, with production and sales ranking first globally for 10 consecutive years, contributing to global carbon reduction goals [2]. Investment Logic - China issued the third - batch of refined oil export quotas, totaling 8.395 million tons, with a cumulative total of 40.195 million tons for the three batches. The total is basically the same as last year but slightly lower than the market expectation of 9 million tons. The refined oil export quotas have remained stable in the past three years, and the total crude oil import quota has also been stable. However, the proportion of private large - scale refining quotas has been increasing, while that of local refineries has been decreasing. Factors such as quota shortages, a decline in the consumption tax deduction ratio, and the peak of gasoline and diesel demand are squeezing the survival space of local refineries. The reduced ability of local refineries to absorb sensitive oil has led to some inventory backlog, which has contributed to the increase in China's crude oil inventory since the beginning of the year. In the short term, policies are suppressing the operating rate of local refineries, and the future of sensitive oil is uncertain. Although China's storage tank space is relatively abundant (with a current storage rate of about 65%), it may flow into the SPR, which is a core factor for future oil price trends [3]. Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range. - Medium - term: Bearish configuration [4].

Group 1: Report Core View - In the week ending September 12, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels, mainly due to a significant increase in net crude oil exports of 3.111 million barrels per day. Single - week imports dropped to the lowest level in the same period in five years, while exports reached the highest level in the same period in five years. Single - week crude oil production slightly declined by 13,000 barrels per day to 13.482 million barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate fell from 94.9% to 93.3%, remaining at a relatively high level in the same period. Gasoline inventories decreased, but diesel inventories continued to accumulate, and the total inventories of crude oil and petroleum products continued to rise from a high level [4]. Group 2: Data Summary Inventory Data (in million barrels) - US commercial crude oil inventory change: - 9.285 (previous value: + 3.939) [6] - US Cushing crude oil inventory change: - 0.296 (previous value: - 0.365) [6] - US strategic petroleum inventory change: + 0.504 (previous value: + 0.514) [6] - US gasoline inventory change: - 2.347 (previous value: + 1.458) [6] - US diesel inventory change: + 4.046 (previous value: + 4.715) [6] - US jet fuel inventory change: + 0.632 (previous value: + 0.474) [6] - US fuel oil inventory change: - 0.409 (previous value: + 1.297) [6] - US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR): + 1.171 (previous value: + 15.43) [6] Production, Demand and Trade Data (in thousand barrels per day) - US crude oil production: 13,482 (previous value: 13,495) [6] - US refined product apparent demand: 20,637 (previous value: 19,781) [6] - US gasoline apparent demand: 8,810 (previous value: 8,508) [6] - US diesel apparent demand: 3,621 (previous value: 3,377) [6] - US crude oil imports: 5,692 (previous value: 6,271) [6] - US crude oil exports: 5,277 (previous value: 2,745) [6] - US refinery crude oil processing volume: 16,424 (previous value: 16,818) [6] - US refinery utilization rate (%): 93.3 (previous value: 94.9) [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - expectation is difficult to reverse the weak fundamental situation, limiting the geopolitical premium space in the short - term and driving the center of the crude oil futures market to gradually decline in the long - term. The market reaction is generally bearish due to the entry into the traditional demand off - season and the Fed's interest rate decision [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Production - As of the week ending September 12, the daily average crude oil production in the US was 13.482 million barrels, a decrease of 13,000 barrels from the previous week and an increase of 282,000 barrels from the same period last year. The four - week daily average production as of September 12 was 13.46 million barrels, 1.4% higher than the same period last year. The daily average production this year was 13.437 million barrels, 1.9% higher than last year [1]. Inventory - US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415.361 million barrels, a decrease of 2.19%. Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 296,000 barrels to 23.561 million barrels, a decrease of 1.24%. US gasoline inventory decreased by 2.347 million barrels to 217.650 million barrels, a decrease of 1.07%. US distillate oil inventory increased by 4.046 million barrels to 124.684 million barrels, an increase of 3.35%. US total oil product inventory increased by 1.171 million barrels to 1.282421 billion barrels, an increase of 0.019%. US strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 504,000 barrels to 405.728 million barrels, an increase of 0.12% [1][2]. Refinery - The US refinery utilization rate was 93.3%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous week, a decrease of 1.69% [2]. Trade - US crude oil imports were 5.692 million barrels per day, a decrease of 579,000 barrels per day from the previous week, a decrease of 9.23%. US crude oil exports were 5.277 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.532 million barrels per day from the previous week, an increase of 92.1%, reaching the highest level in nearly two years [1][2]. Interest Rate - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. After the announcement of the Fed's interest rate decision, oil prices showed a downward trend [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report implies a relatively bearish outlook for the oil market [8] 2. Report's Core View - The EIA report for the week is a mixed bag, with a significant decline in crude oil inventory exceeding market expectations and a substantial drop in gasoline inventory. However, more forward - looking data shows weakness, such as the decline in refinery operating rates indicating the start of autumn maintenance, and the poor performance of distillates leading to a counter - seasonal increase in inventory, which may promote refinery maintenance. Overall, it is a relatively bearish report [8] 3. Summary by Related Data 3.1 Inventory Data - As of September 12, U.S. commercial crude oil total inventory was 415.361 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 9.285 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 857,000 barrels. Cushing inventory decreased by 296,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 504,000 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 2.347 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 1 million barrels, while distillate inventory increased by 4.046 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 1 million barrels [2][3] - The total inventory of the U.S. crude oil chain increased by 1.675 million barrels [3] 3.2 Production, Import, and Processing Data - U.S. crude oil production decreased by 13,000 barrels per day to 13.482 million barrels per day [3] - U.S. crude oil net imports decreased by 3.111 million barrels per day to 415,000 barrels per day [3] - U.S. crude oil processing volume decreased by 394,000 barrels per day to 16.424 million barrels per day [3] 3.3 Demand Data - U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased by 217,250 barrels per day to 20.671 million barrels per day [3] - U.S. gasoline apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased by 8,000 barrels per day to 8.91875 million barrels per day [3] - U.S. distillate apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased by 86,500 barrels per day to 3.72675 million barrels per day [3] - U.S. jet fuel apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased by 69,000 barrels per day to 1.70275 million barrels per day [3] 3.4 Market Impact and Analysis - The large - scale decline in U.S. crude oil inventory last week was mainly due to a significant increase in exports, resulting in a large decrease in net imports. The single - week export data reached 5.277 million barrels per day, a new high since 2024. However, the domestic refinery operating rate decreased by 1.6% to 93.3%, indicating the gradual start of traditional autumn maintenance [4] - In the traditional autumn harvest consumption season, distillate demand decreased instead of increasing, causing inventory to rise during the period of declining refinery operating rates. The current large increase in distillate inventory is counter - seasonal, which may affect distillate cracking and accelerate the progress of refinery autumn maintenance [6] - After the release of the EIA report, oil prices fell slightly and further declined after the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting [8]

Group 1 - As of the week ending September 12, 2025, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415 million barrels, marking the largest decline since June 13, 2025, against market expectations of a decrease of 0.857 million barrels and a previous value of 3.939 million barrels [1] - U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 504,000 barrels to 40.57 million barrels, the highest level since October 7, 2022 [1] - Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.347 million barrels, compared to a previous value of 1.458 million barrels [1] - Distillate inventories increased by 4.046 million barrels, exceeding expectations of 0.975 million barrels and a previous value of 4.715 million barrels [1] Group 2 - U.S. domestic crude oil production decreased by 13,000 barrels to 13.482 million barrels per day as of the week ending September 12, 2025 [1] - The four-week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 20.671 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.69% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 3 - U.S. commercial crude oil imports, excluding the Strategic Reserve, were 5.692 million barrels per day, a decrease of 579,000 barrels per day, the lowest level since June 13, 2025 [1] - U.S. crude oil exports increased by 2.532 million barrels per day to 5.277 million barrels per day, the highest level since December 29, 2023 [1] Group 4 - As of September 18, 2025, WTI crude oil was reported at $63.41 per barrel, down 0.36%, while Brent crude was reported at $67.13 per barrel, down 0.42% [2]

Oil Price Sector - As of September 16, 2025, the prices for Brent crude, WTI crude, Russian EPSO crude, and Russian Urals crude are $68.47, $64.52, $63.69, and $65.49 per barrel respectively [1][2] - The month-on-month price changes for major oil products are as follows: Brent crude (+2.81%), WTI crude (+2.90%), Russian EPSO (+3.02%), and Russian Urals (0.00%) [1][2] - Year-to-date price changes from the beginning of 2025 to September 16, 2025, show Brent crude (-9.82%), WTI crude (-11.77%), Russian EPSO (-11.48%), and Russian Urals (-4.41%) [2] Oil Inventory Sector - The IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil inventory changes for 2025 to be +195.06, +171.83, and -53.06 thousand barrels per day respectively, with adjustments from August predictions being +17.80, +9.25, and -17.83 thousand barrels per day [2] - The average forecast for global oil inventory changes in 2025 is +104.61 thousand barrels per day, an increase of +3.07 thousand barrels per day from the previous month [2] Oil Supply Sector - For September 2025, the IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil supply to be 10,582.51, 10,552.82, and 10,460.46 million barrels per day respectively, with increases from 2024 supply being +267.18, +233.92, and +200.88 million barrels per day [3][4] - The 2026 oil supply predictions are 10,787.62, 10,664.34, and 10,618.42 million barrels per day, reflecting increases of +205.12, +111.53, and +157.96 million barrels per day from 2025 [3] Oil Demand Sector - The IEA, EIA, and OPEC forecast global oil demand for 2025 to be 10,387.45, 10,380.99, and 10,513.52 million barrels per day respectively, with year-on-year increases of +73.68, +89.62, and +129.47 million barrels per day [5] - For Q3 2025, the demand predictions are +93.54, +116.34, and +156.83 million barrels per day, with adjustments from August predictions being +40.99, +12.22, and -0.07 million barrels per day [5] Related Companies - Relevant listed companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) among others [6]

Core Insights - The EIA reported a significant decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories, with a reduction of 9.285 million barrels, which is substantially higher than the market expectation of a decrease of 0.857 million barrels [1] Industry Summary - The reduction in crude oil inventories indicates a tighter supply situation in the U.S. oil market, which could lead to upward pressure on oil prices [1] - The discrepancy between actual inventory reduction and market expectations suggests potential volatility in oil prices as market participants adjust their forecasts [1]

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/15 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/09/08 | 62.26 | 66.02 | 69.03 | - | 0.35 | -3.76 | 0.47 | 195.86 | 16.24 | 231.19 | 31.08 | | 2025/09/09 | 62.63 | 66.39 | 69.50 | - | 0.28 | -3.76 | 0.34 | 199.25 | 17.30 | 231.99 | 31.05 | | 2025/09/10 | 6 ...

Group 1 - The next round of domestic oil price adjustment is scheduled for September 23, with an expected decrease of approximately 55 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [1][2] - The oil price trend this year has been highly volatile, resembling a roller coaster [3] - The 18th price adjustment was particularly dramatic, with initial expectations of a 90 yuan increase per ton, but international oil prices unexpectedly dropped, resulting in a 50 yuan decrease instead [5][6][7] Group 2 - The recent decline in international oil prices is attributed to a significant increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, which rose by 3.9 million barrels, exceeding market expectations [9][10] - Additionally, OPEC announced plans to restore a daily production cut of 2.2 million barrels in September and to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October, contributing to downward pressure on oil prices [12][13][14] Group 3 - The current national average prices for 92-octane gasoline vary by region, with the lowest price in Urumqi at 6.89 yuan and the highest in Hainan at 8.23 yuan [21][26] - For 95-octane gasoline, prices range from 7.40 yuan in Shaanxi to 8.74 yuan in Hainan, indicating regional disparities influenced by demand and transportation costs [30][31]

分析师：范智颖 从业资格号：F03117807 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0022690 研究所 Tel：010-82292099 Email：fanzhiying@swhysc.com [原ta油ble周_r报eportdate] 2025 年 9 月 12 日 下跌空间或有限 风险提示：美联储议息会议，俄乌局势变动。 相关研究 《原油 2025 年展望：增产预期压制上方 空间》 《宏源原油周报 20250110：低库存下油 价对于供给的潜在减量较为敏感》 《原油周报 20250228：短期支撑有效， 减产底继续面临考验》 《宏源原油二季度报告：等待利空因素 消化，不必过度悲观》 《原油月报：转机与阴霾同在》 《原油周报 20250509：短期以反弹修复 看待》 《原油 6 月展望：6 月仍有下行压力》 《原油 2025 年 H2 展望：利空因素逐步 消化，下半年谨慎看涨》 《原油周报20250711：短期矛盾不凸显， 油价波动率回归》 《原油 8 月展望：宏观与需求支撑转弱， 8 月注意下行压力》 《原油周报 20250822：短期或延续降波 震荡行情》 《原油周报 20250829：暂时观望》 《原油 9 ...