Group 1 - Coking coal shows signs of stabilization after a previous day of limit decline [1] - Expectations of anti-involution have cooled down but are not yet over [1] - The fourth round of price increases for coking coal has been rapidly implemented, indicating potential for further price increases in the future [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising price of lithium carbonate, which is approaching the 80,000 yuan mark, driven by frequent disturbances in the resource sector and a strengthening expectation of "anti-involution" [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that the price of lithium carbonate is becoming "unstoppable," indicating a strong upward trend in the market [1]

Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some sectors are influenced by macro - economic factors, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships [2]. - Different commodities have different price trends and investment opportunities, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each commodity. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index**: There is an obvious high - low switching phenomenon between sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and replace them with a small amount of short positions in MO put options with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract. Unilateral strategies suggest short - term waiting and paying attention to the capital side and incremental policies [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the tax period this week, funds may gradually return to a loose state. In the short - term, the bond market is significantly affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect and is in a box - shock stage. Curve strategies can continue to bet on steepening [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold fluctuates more due to short - term trade conflicts and a weaker dollar, maintaining a shock - upward trend above $3300. Silver has further upward space above $38 and long positions can be held [2]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract fluctuates. It is expected that the near - month will be weakly volatile. It is advisable to short the 08 contract or lightly short the 10 contract on rallies [2]. Black Metals - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The sentiment in the black metal market has improved, pig iron production has rebounded, and steel mills' restocking provides support. It is recommended to go long on dips for steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the advancement of anti - involution policies, copper prices fluctuate strongly, with the main contract referring to 78,500 - 81,000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Alumina is strong due to capacity elimination expectations and squeezing risks. Aluminum prices have a slight recovery, but the off - season inventory accumulation expectation is still strong. Zinc has weak demand expectations with inventory accumulation. Tin, nickel, and stainless steel have different trends affected by macro and industrial factors [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The macro and fundamental aspects are in a multi - empty stalemate, and short - term oil prices fluctuate mainly. It is recommended to have a bullish mindset in the short - term [2]. - **Chemicals**: Different chemical products have different trends. For example, PX is supported in the short - term, PTA is also supported, and some products like caustic soda and PVC are affected by macro and policy factors [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products have different price trends. For example, soybeans have strong bottom support, palm oil is weak due to slow exports, and cotton has a short - term strong trend and a medium - term bearish trend [2]. Special Commodities - Glass, rubber, and industrial silicon are affected by macro factors. Their prices have risen, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon and lithium carbonate are affected by macro - sentiment. Their prices have upward trends, and it is recommended to wait and see while paying attention to risk management [2].

Supply and Demand - Construction activity remains at a seasonal low, with asphalt and cement dispatch rates at historical lows, and funding availability on construction sites lower than in 2024[13] - Industrial production shows a slight decline in chemical chain operating rates, while automotive steel tire operating rates have increased, indicating overall industrial activity remains at a historical high[23] - Demand in construction is weak, with apparent demand for rebar, wire rods, and building materials below historical levels[31] Price Trends - International commodity prices have seen a rebound in oil and gold, while non-ferrous metal prices have declined[38] - Domestic industrial products are experiencing a strong performance, with the Nanhua Composite Index showing a rebound, particularly in the black series and construction materials like asphalt and cement[40] - Agricultural product prices, including pork, have shown signs of recovery in recent weeks[48] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions in major cities have decreased significantly, with a 51% drop in average transaction area compared to the previous two weeks, and a year-on-year decline of 35% compared to 2023[61] - Second-hand housing transactions remain weak, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing year-on-year declines of -18%, -1%, and +8% respectively[65] Export Performance - Port container throughput increased by 3.9% year-on-year before July 20, with export growth projected at approximately +1.5%[70] - The Shanghai container ship loading index suggests a potential export growth of around +4%[70] Liquidity and Interest Rates - Recent weeks have seen a rise in funding rates, with R007 and DR007 both at 1.51% as of July 18[83] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 657 billion yuan through reverse repos in the last two weeks[86]