【环球时报驻美国特约记者 冯亚仁】生活开支的持续上涨引发了美国消费者对于总统特朗普在竞选期 间"终结通胀"承诺的重新审视。美国《财富》杂志1月30日报道称，根据美国参议院银行、住房和城市 事务委员会的伊丽莎白·沃伦参议员团队提供的最新报告，若美国家庭在2025年购买的商品与服务和 2024年相同，每户家庭平均要多支出2120美元。 数据显示，相较于2024年，去年美国家庭的电费账单增加123美元，食品杂货增加150美元。报道称，围 绕究竟是谁推高了开支的讨论焦点集中在白宫的政策上。去年4月，美国政府宣布对几乎所有贸易伙伴 加征所谓"解放日关税"，即便随后与多国重新谈判，最终税率低于最初水平，但关税负担仍然上升。白 宫方面强调，价格并未出现市场曾担忧的剧烈飙升，而批评者则指出，通胀在去年4月至9月持续走高， 至今仍处于高位。 特朗普政府将由关税引发的价格变化描述为"一次性调整"。但沃伦团队的政策顾问直言，混乱的关税和 失败的经济政策推高了价格，即使这些价格上涨在数据中是"一次性的"，但对于已经捉襟见肘的家庭来 说，它们是永久的。 在此背景下，美国舆论界围绕"可负担性"的讨论不断升温。《纽约时报》上周三报道称，该 ...

新华社纽约1月29日电（记者杨士龙）源自中文互联网游戏社群的词汇"斩杀线"近期成了观察美国民生压力的独特透镜：一旦家庭收入或储蓄 跌破某个临界点，便可能因连锁反应而坠入困境，难以回到先前的生活。 在美国公共讨论中，与"斩杀线"相呼应的关键词是生活成本的"可负担性"，这标志着民生压力已从阶段性问题转变为结构性问题。民生困境何 以出现在人均GDP高达8.4万美元的美国？要理解这一现象，不妨算算"斩杀线"的三笔账——历史账、现实账、政治账。 历史账：政府、工会运动、社会共识同步退化 美国《纽约时报》专栏作家托马斯·埃德萨尔在评估关税、税收与支出政策影响后称，在多项政策效应叠加下，2025年美国中等收入家庭的实 际购买力可能面临约2250美元量级的年度净损失。 美国布鲁金斯学会的研究指出，截至2023年，大约三分之一的美国中产阶级难以负担食品、住房和儿童护理等基本必需品的成本。研究所 指"中产阶级"是年收入在3万至15.3万美元之间的美国人群。 上述数据共同指向一个现实：对越来越多美国家庭而言，"可负担性"危机不再是阶段性压力，而正在逼近一个难以逆转的生存阈值。 这是2025年10月15日拍摄的日落时分的美国华盛顿纪 ...

新华社纽约1月29日电（记者杨士龙）源自中文互联网游戏社群的词汇"斩杀线"近期成了观察美国民生压力的独特透镜：一旦家庭收入或储蓄跌破 某个临界点，便可能因连锁反应而坠入困境，难以回到先前的生活。 2025年11月5日，在美国首都华盛顿，联邦雇员排队领取免费食物。新华社记者胡友松摄 回顾20世纪50年代的美国，当时通过税收优惠安排、强工会和积极的社会投资，创造并维持一个规模庞大、具有消费能力的中产阶级。布鲁金斯 学会高级研究员威廉·盖尔指出，当时的政策逻辑在于通过制度设计分担社会风险，政府被视为经济体系中的"风险缓冲器"。 转折发生在20世纪70年代末，滞胀危机、石油冲击以及制造业外流开始冲击上述设计，真正的制度性拆除随后开始。里根政府推动最高边际税率 从70%降至50%，1986年进一步降至28%，政府税收随之减少并殃及社会保障水平。与此同时，资本利得税长期维持在低于劳动所得税的水平。 工会的退潮更为剧烈。美国劳工统计局数据显示，工会会员率从1983年的20.1%降至2023年的10%。工资与生产率之间的长期联动被打破，企业利 润和资本回报在国民收入中的占比持续上升。工会衰落后，收入不平等首先在市场环节被迅速 ...

源自中文互联网游戏社群的词汇"斩杀线"近期成了观察美国民生压力的独特透镜：一旦家庭收入或储蓄 跌破某个临界点，便可能因连锁反应而坠入困境，难以回到先前的生活。 在美国公共讨论中，与"斩杀线"相呼应的关键词是生活成本的"可负担性"，这标志着民生压力已从阶段 性问题转变为结构性问题。民生困境何以出现在人均GDP高达8.4万美元的美国？要理解这一现象，不 妨算算"斩杀线"的三笔账——历史账、现实账、政治账。 年10月15日拍摄的日落时分的美国华盛顿纪念碑。新华社记者李睿摄 历史账：政府、工会运动、社会共识同步退化 美国《纽约时报》专栏作家托马斯·埃德萨尔在评估关税、税收与支出政策影响后称，在多项政策效应 叠加下，2025年美国中等收入家庭的实际购买力可能面临约2250美元量级的年度净损失。 美国布鲁金斯学会的研究指出，截至2023年，大约三分之一的美国中产阶级难以负担食品、住房和儿童 护理等基本必需品的成本。研究所指"中产阶级"是年收入在3万至15.3万美元之间的美国人群。 上述数据共同指向一个现实：对越来越多美国家庭而言，"可负担性"危机不再是阶段性压力，而正在逼 近一个难以逆转的生存阈值。 这是2025 202 ...

健康政策研究机构凯泽家庭基金会发布的调查显示，三分之二的美国人表示，对医疗问题的担忧超过食 品杂货、公用事业、汽油和住房开支。超半数成年人称今年自身医疗成本有所上涨，大多数人认为，国 会未延长《平价医疗法案》的保险补贴抵扣政策是 "错误的决定"，该政策此前曾助力民众支付医保费 用。 凯泽家庭基金会的报告指出，今年 11 月的选举中，超四成选民将把医保账单问题作为首要投票考量因 素。此次民调恰在 1 月 1 日《平价医疗法案》补贴政策到期后开展，该政策到期已导致医保保费大幅上 涨。华盛顿智库城市研究所的数据显示，税收抵免优惠政策的终止，预计将使 2026 年有 730 万人失去 《平价医疗法案》的医保保障，其中 480 万人将沦为无医保人群。 该机构表示，税收抵免政策到期带来的经济压力，叠加医保价格持续上涨进一步加剧 —— 保险公司将 2026 年《平价医疗法案》对应的医保保费上调了近 22%。雇主提供的这类私人医保保费也在持续走 高，过去三年，家庭私人医保保费的涨幅均达到 6% 及以上。 最新民调数据显示，中期选举临近，医疗价格高居美国民众经济担忧清单榜首，"可负担性" 也成为美 国两党政客争相标榜的热门词汇 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 而在1月早些时候，同样37岁的雷内·古德也在当地被美国移民与海关执法局特工枪杀。这两起事件引发 了全国范围的抗议活动，示威者强烈谴责特朗普政府的移民政策及其执法行动。 特朗普上一次访问爱荷华州是在7月4日假期前夕，当时为美国即将到来的250周年纪念活动揭幕。但在 国会通过其重大支出与减税方案数小时后，这场活动在很大程度上演变为对该法案的庆祝。 共和党方面希望，特朗普周二再次到访爱荷华州，能够将舆论焦点重新拉回这项税收法案上。这也被视 为共和党在11月中期选举中争取选民继续支持的重要卖点之一。 爱荷华州共和党众议员扎克·纳恩（Zach Nunn）在行前声明中表示："我邀请特朗普总统重返爱荷华 州，突出我们取得的真实进展：为工薪家庭减税、巩固边境安全、推动经济增长。现在我们必须保持这 一势头，通过我的可负担住房法案，兑现对爱荷华州能源生产者的承诺，并降低工薪家庭的成本。" 音频由扣子空间生成 美国总统特朗普将于当地时间1月27日（周二）前往爱荷华州，并发表一场聚焦能源和经济议题的讲 话。值得注意的是，爱荷华州方面计划当天下午2点起，在特朗普演讲场地外举行抗议活动。 白宫新闻秘 ...

Core Insights - The 2026 midterm elections are crucial for Trump and the Republican Party, with a focus on affordability issues due to high prices, interest rates, and housing costs [1][3][5] - Voter sentiment is shifting towards immediate economic pressures rather than traditional growth metrics, indicating a need for policy responses that address affordability [2][5] Economic Context - High inflation has persistently affected low- and middle-income households, particularly in housing, where affordability has significantly declined since 2022 [1][10] - The rising mortgage rates, which increased from approximately 3% in 2021 to around 6% currently, have exacerbated housing affordability issues [10][14] - Consumer debt pressures are also rising, with significant increases in overdue payments on credit cards, auto loans, and student loans [11][15] Policy Implications - As affordability becomes a central policy goal, there is a shift towards more direct interventions in pricing, interest rates, and corporate behavior [20][21] - Recent actions by Trump include proposals to limit credit card interest rates to 10% and push for legislative measures to prevent large institutional investors from buying single-family homes [21][22] - The administration's focus on affordability may lead to more aggressive policies that could disrupt markets, as seen in historical precedents [29][27] Market Reactions - The market's perception of election-year policies is cautious, with concerns that aggressive affordability measures could lead to volatility in asset prices [2][29] - Sectors with strong pricing power and high profit margins may face increased policy risks as the narrative shifts towards wealth redistribution [29][30] - Conversely, cost-benefit industries may become more favorable for investment as they align with the affordability focus [30]

Group 1 - The 2026 midterm elections in the U.S. are crucial for Trump, with public sentiment shifting towards affordability issues due to high prices, interest rates, and housing costs [1][2] - The focus on affordability indicates that economic growth or asset price increases are no longer the top priorities; addressing the public's financial pressures is now more critical [2][3] - The rising cost of living has significantly impacted low- and middle-income households, particularly in housing, where rising home prices and mortgage rates have decreased affordability since 2022 [2][3] Group 2 - As affordability becomes a central goal, policy approaches may shift towards more direct interventions affecting prices, interest rates, and corporate behavior [3] - Historical trends suggest that when affordability dominates the agenda, policies may become more aggressive, potentially disrupting markets [3] - The investment outlook for the U.S. market indicates limited expansion in index valuations, increased volatility, higher policy risks for monopolistic sectors, and a favorable position for cost-benefit industries [3]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 midterm elections are crucial for Trump and the Republican Party, with affordability becoming the central issue for voters, overshadowing traditional economic growth metrics [2][5][7]. Group 1: Political Context - The Republican Party holds a slim majority in the House of Representatives, and losing it could lead to a divided government, limiting Trump's ability to implement policies [5][6]. - Historical trends indicate that the party of the sitting president often loses seats in midterm elections, increasing the risk of impeachment for Trump if the Republicans fail [6][7]. Group 2: Affordability Crisis - High inflation has significantly impacted middle and low-income households, particularly in housing, where affordability has sharply declined since 2022 [2][12]. - The median income required to afford a typical home has increased by 43% compared to the median household income, exacerbated by rising mortgage rates [12][14]. - The burden of debt repayment is rising, with delinquency rates on credit cards and loans nearing previous highs, indicating increased financial stress among households [13][18]. Group 3: Policy Implications - As affordability becomes a primary goal, policy measures may shift towards more direct interventions in pricing and corporate behavior, moving away from traditional macroeconomic policies [3][22]. - Recent actions by Trump include proposals to limit credit card interest rates and push for legislative changes in housing, reflecting a focus on alleviating cost pressures for voters [24][25]. Group 4: Market Impact - The focus on affordability may limit the expansion of index valuations and increase market volatility, as the government prioritizes voter concerns over asset price growth [32]. - Sectors with strong pricing power and high profit margins may face increased policy risks, while cost-benefit industries could become more favorable for investment [32][33]. - Historical examples suggest that aggressive policy interventions can lead to market disruptions, as seen in the 1970s, raising caution among investors regarding potential policy risks [30][31].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the stability of consumer inflation expectations in the U.S. for November, with a maintained one-year inflation expectation of 3.2% and a three to five-year expectation of 3% [1] - The New York Fed's survey indicates an improvement in consumer sentiment regarding the job market, with the probability of unemployment decreasing to 13.8%, the lowest level this year [1] - Despite the positive outlook on employment, a significant portion of households reported worsening financial conditions, with 39% stating their financial situation is worse than a year ago, the highest level in two years [1] Group 2 - Senior aides to former President Trump are urging him to address inflation and economic issues more effectively, as concerns over living costs are impacting his presidency and the Republican Party [4] - Trump has dismissed the focus on "affordability" as a Democratic narrative, claiming it is a misleading term that does not resonate with the public [5] - There are plans for Trump to shift his public engagements to focus more on economic issues, especially in light of the upcoming midterm elections, with a particular emphasis on addressing inflation [5][6]