1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On May 12, the bond market weakened overall, with significant declines in Treasury bond futures. The equity market rose, and there were various changes in the money market, bond yields, and macro - industry news [2][9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - On May 12, Treasury bond futures tumbled, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts dropping 1.31%, 0.46%, 0.2%, and 0.08% respectively. The Treasury bond futures index was 0.35. The strategy's cumulative returns without leverage were 0.03% in the past 20 days, - 0.88% in 60 days, 0.21% in 120 days, and 1.13% in 240 days. The equity market soared, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains [2][4] - Overnight shibor was 1.4220%, down 7.5bp from the previous trading day; 7 - day shibor was 1.4960%, down 2.3bp; 14 - day shibor was 1.5630%, up 0.9bp; 1 - month shibor was 1.6610%, down 2.3bp [3] - In the money market, the inter - bank pledged repo market traded 2 billion yuan, up 3.79%. Overnight repo closed at 1.35%, down 10bp; 7 - day repo was at 1.55%, up 1bp; 14 - day repo was at 1.58%, down 7bp; 1 - month repo was at 1.65%, down 5bp. Treasury bond yields rose by 0.79 - 6.50BP, and credit bond yields showed mixed trends [5] - Net long positions of private funds, foreign investors, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 5.18%, 3.18%, and 3.32% respectively [7] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On May 12, the central bank conducted 43 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. The China - US Geneva economic and trade talks joint statement stated that both sides would cancel 91% of the additional tariffs. The Ministry of Commerce vowed to crack down on strategic mineral smuggling exports, and the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the Regulations on Ecological and Environmental Protection Inspections [9] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of Treasury bond futures was 0, indicating a neutral stance [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that all treasury yield curves seem to be declining, making it difficult to determine whether this is driven by the debt ceiling or recent tariff news [1] - The strategist believes that the price of three-month treasury bonds is cheaper compared to surrounding bonds, suggesting that incorporating the debt ceiling into pricing is reasonable due to updated guidance from the Treasury for August maturities [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the downward movement of the yield curve is hindered by structural distortions, with long-term yields rising despite recent interest rate cuts due to market expectations and the current yield curve being below bank funding costs [1][2] - The yield curve has experienced a significant inversion, dropping from 30 basis points (BP) before the Spring Festival to within 10 BP currently, indicating a lack of capital gain opportunities [1] - The current yield curve shows insufficient convexity, with only 15-20 year bonds exhibiting strong convexity, while the middle segment (e.g., certificates of deposit, 2-5 year credit bonds) serves as a source of convexity for ongoing investment [1] Group 2 - Short-term market outlook suggests that mid-term instruments are the most beneficial in the current environment, confirming the effectiveness of a "clumsy strategy" focused on 1-5 year non-rate products [2][4] - The market has become overcrowded, leading to a rapid decline in the 10-year government bond yield from 1.8% to 1.6%, resulting in a loss of trading space within the yield curve structure [2][4] - Historical patterns indicate that the current high performance of bond funds (annualized near 10%) is expected to revert within approximately one month, around mid-May [2]

澳大利亚3年期国债收益率跌幅扩大至11个基点，国债收益率曲线变陡。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for February returned above the threshold, indicating a relatively good state of manufacturing prosperity, with the average PMI for January and February overall better than in 2024 [1][3] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for February is 50.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, and 0.1 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years [2][3] - The average PMI for January and February is 49.65%, which is higher than the 49.15% in the same period of 2024, reflecting a better recent manufacturing climate [3] Economic Supply and Demand - Both supply and demand sides of the economy are performing well in the short term, with a potential short-term rebound in PPI readings [4] - The production index for February is 52.5%, up 2.7 percentage points from last month, and the average operating rate for six major industrial sectors is 71.0%, which is 2.0 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024 [4] Sector Performance - Among 15 major manufacturing industries, 7 have PMIs above the threshold, with the equipment manufacturing sector performing relatively well, such as electrical machinery at 57.1% and automotive manufacturing at 53.1% [5] - Conversely, some low-value-added industries are underperforming, such as non-metallic mineral products at 43.4% and petroleum processing at 42.6% [5] Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI for February is 50.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, driven mainly by seasonal recovery in the construction industry [6] - The service sector PMI decreased to 50.0%, while the construction PMI increased to 52.7%, indicating a seasonal rebound in construction activities post-Spring Festival [6] Future Economic Outlook - The overall economic performance is benefiting from previous consumption-boosting policies, tariff expectations, and the concentrated issuance of special bonds in the fourth quarter [7] - Future attention should be paid to the details of macro policies from the Two Sessions, the effects of consumption promotion on large items, and the impact of tariffs on exports [7]