Economic Outlook - The Huachuang Macro WEI Index has increased to 6.35% as of June 8, up from 5.82% on May 25, driven mainly by asphalt operating rates and passenger car retail sales, indicating a recovery in infrastructure and durable goods consumption [1][7][8] - Passenger car retail sales maintained a high growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 19% before June, compared to 13.3% in May and 14.5% in April [1][11] - Real estate sales showed a narrowing decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% in the first 13 days of June across 67 cities, compared to a 13% decline in May [1][12] Infrastructure and Production - Infrastructure indicators such as asphalt plant operating rates and cement dispatch rates continued to rise, with asphalt operating rates at 31.5% as of June 11, up 9.3% year-on-year [1][19] - Cement dispatch rates reached 41.4% as of June 6, slightly up from the previous week and higher than the same period last year [1][19] - Coal throughput at Qinhuangdao port increased by 17.5% year-on-year as of June 13, indicating a recovery in coal production [1][20] Consumer Behavior - Service consumption showed a decline in metro passenger traffic and flight operations, with metro ridership averaging 76.17 million daily in 27 cities, down 0.4% year-on-year [3][11] - The land premium rate has significantly decreased to 1.04% as of June 8, down from 5.14% in May and 9.75% in April, indicating a cooling in the real estate market [3][13] Trade and Prices - Global oil prices surged due to geopolitical conflicts, with WTI crude oil rising by 13% and Brent crude by 11.7% [2][39] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 20.5%, and the China Export Container Freight Index rose by 7.6%, reflecting higher shipping costs [2][39] - U.S. imports continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 9.4% in early June, and imports from China decreased by 28% [3][25] Interest Rates and Debt Issuance - Government bond yields slightly decreased, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields reported at 1.4002%, 1.5447%, and 1.6440% respectively as of June 13 [4][59] - New special bond issuance has progressed faster than in 2024, with a total of 1.69 trillion yuan issued by June 13, representing 38.4% of the annual target [3][47]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a mixed economic outlook, with some sectors showing recovery while others face declines, particularly in exports and commodity prices [2][4][30]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has shown a slight decline, standing at 5.03% as of May 18, down from 5.15% on May 11 [4][9]. - Infrastructure remains a key driver of economic activity, particularly in asphalt construction rates, which increased to an average of 30.58% from 26.95% [10]. - The cement shipment rate has rebounded to 41.5%, up 2.2 percentage points from the previous week [17]. Group 2: Demand and Consumption - Land premium rates have significantly decreased, with a current rate of 1.37% compared to an average of 5.5% over the previous three weeks [5][14]. - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have shown a slight decline, with a growth rate of 12.4% as of May 18, down from 14.5% in April [13]. - The average daily subway ridership in 27 cities remained stable at 78.88 million, consistent with last year [13]. Group 3: Trade and Exports - U.S. imports from China have sharply declined, with a year-on-year drop of 8% in the first 21 days of May, compared to a 9.9% increase in April [5][23]. - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. has decreased by 37.5% year-on-year as of May 24 [5][23]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has shown a year-on-year decline of 26.1% [21]. Group 4: Commodity Prices - Gold prices have rebounded significantly, closing at $3,351 per ounce, a 5% increase [3][30]. - Prices for coal and real estate-related commodities have weakened, with Shanxi thermal coal prices down 0.5% and rebar prices down 1.3% [6][30]. - The overall commodity price index (BPI) has decreased by 0.3% domestically, while the CRB index has increased by 0.2% internationally [30][36]. Group 5: Debt and Financing - New special bond issuance has accelerated compared to last year, with a total of 1.68 trillion yuan issued as of May 23, representing 38.3% of the annual target [6][37]. - The issuance of general and special government bonds has also outpaced last year's progress, with net financing rates of 39.4% and 42.1%, respectively [6][37].

Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index decreased to 5.03% as of May 18, down 0.12% from 5.15% on May 11[11] - Cement shipment rate increased to 41.5% as of May 16, up 2.2 percentage points from the previous week, consistent with the same period last year[20] - The average land premium rate for 100 cities dropped to 1.37% as of May 18, down from an average of 5.5% in the previous three weeks and 9.69% in April[15] Trade and Exports - U.S. imports from China fell significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 8% in the first 21 days of May, compared to a 9.9% increase in April[5] - The number of cargo container ships from China to the U.S. decreased by 37.5% year-on-year as of May 24, compared to a 23.1% decline at the end of April[35] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) showed a year-on-year decline of 26.1% as of May 23, indicating a drop in shipping demand[28] Commodity Prices - Gold prices rebounded significantly, with COMEX gold closing at $3,351 per ounce, a 5% increase[1] - Domestic coal prices continued to decline, with the Qinhuangdao port price for power coal dropping by 0.5% to 611 yuan per ton[38] - The price index for iron ore (62% Fe) decreased by 1.4%, settling at $99.7 per ton[38] Debt Issuance - As of May 23, 2025, the issuance of new special bonds reached 1.68 trillion yuan, with an estimated total for the year at 4.4 trillion yuan, marking a progress rate of 38.3%[45] - The net financing progress for general government bonds reached 39.4% as of May 23, compared to 28.6% during the same period last year[53]

2025年第16周 Weekly 2025年4月14日-2025年4月20日，第16周土地成交规模持续回落，三四线土拍溢价率持续升温。本周重点 城市监测供应建筑面积206万平方米，环比下降24%。成交124万平方米，环比下降50%。本周一二线城市 仅出让了4宗含宅用地，均为底价出让，导致重点城市平均溢价率连续两周低于10%，不过三四线城市平均 溢价率再度攀高，达到8.8%，连续四周超过5%。 供应： 本周供应建筑面积206万平方米，环比下降24%。 本周供应含宅用地平均容积率为2.3，南京、西安、 宁波本周供应宅地平均容积率均不低于2.2，杭州本周供应宅地平均容积率也达到了1.9。 重点供应地块方面，4月14日，南京雨花台上新一宗宅地，起拍总价26.05亿元，容积率2.4，起拍楼板价1.6万 元/平方米。地块位于雨核板块的徐工片区，周边聚集着华为、中兴等软件公司，优质客源充沛，且教育、医 疗、生态资源等配套规划较为完善。小片区上一次土地出让是毗邻的2023G38地块，在2023年7月成交，成交 楼板价为2.4万元/平方米。目前同板块主力新房售价在3.7万元/平方米左右。 4月18日，杭州拱墅区新天地板块挂牌一 ...

点击注册小程序 2025年1-2月，TOP50房企新增土储价值1,941亿元，累计同比+45.0%，前三名为华润置地（318亿元）、 中国金茂（189亿元）、保利发展（153亿元）；TOP50房企新增土储面积1,908万平，累计同比-6.8%，前 三名为华润置地（94万平）、海泰置业（87万平）、保利发展（75万平）。 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 2025年1-2月，百城宅地成交建面同比+7.8%，成交楼面均价同比+20.4% 2025年1-2月，百城住宅类用地成交建面为2,947万平，累计同比+7.8%；成交楼面均价为7,159元/平方米， 同比+20.4%。分能级城市来看，1-2月， 一线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为109万平，累计同比-34.3%；成交建面为169万平，累计同比- ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the real estate sector, particularly in land transactions, with an average premium rate reaching a three-year high of 22.9% [4][6]. Core Insights - The land supply for the week increased by 24% to 3 million square meters, while transaction volume decreased by 38% to 1.71 million square meters, influenced by pre-holiday land supply rhythms [4][6]. - Major cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, Suzhou, and Chengdu saw multiple high-premium land parcels auctioned, with a notable average floor price increase of 152% to 17,500 yuan per square meter [6][8]. - The report highlights significant land auction results, including a Shanghai plot sold for 8.964 billion yuan with a premium rate of 38.2%, marking the third-highest nominal floor price in the country [7][14]. Supply Summary - The total land supply for the week was 3 million square meters, with a 24% increase, primarily driven by second-tier cities, which saw a 27% rise in supply [4][5]. - The average plot ratio for residential land was 2.11, with several cities like Suzhou, Changchun, and Xi'an reporting ratios below 2.0 [4]. Transaction Summary - Total transaction area was 1.71 million square meters, down 38% from the previous week, but the total transaction value increased by 57% to 29.9 billion yuan [6][8]. - The report notes that the average floor price in key cities reached 17,500 yuan per square meter, reflecting a significant increase in land value [6][14]. Key Land Auction Results - In Shanghai, a residential plot in Hongkou district was sold for 8.964 billion yuan with a floor price of 117,474 yuan per square meter and a premium of 38% [7][14]. - In Hangzhou, a plot in Chengdong New City was auctioned for 1.08 billion yuan with a premium of 54%, setting a new record for the area [8][14].

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent land premium rates in core cities have reached a new high since the second half of 2021, indicating a significant shift in the land market dynamics[2] - Overall, both supply and demand in the land market have decreased, with land supply dropping by approximately 25.5% year-on-year in early 2025[3] - The land transaction area also saw a decline of about 4.2% year-on-year, reflecting weak demand despite some recovery in core cities[3] Group 2: Inventory and Corporate Behavior - National land inventory has accumulated to approximately 3.8 billion square meters, with a depletion cycle extending to 56 months, indicating ongoing pressure in the market[4] - The willingness of real estate companies to acquire land remains low, with a land acquisition-to-sales ratio of 0.17, significantly below the historical threshold of 0.3[4] - Major state-owned enterprises have increased land acquisition, with the top seven state-owned enterprises acquiring land worth 109.4 billion yuan in early 2025, a 161% increase year-on-year[8] Group 3: Premium Rates and Future Outlook - The land premium rate for 2025 has surged to 13.4% in key cities, marking the highest level since July 2021[6] - The contribution of first-tier cities to the overall land premium rate has surpassed levels seen in the first half of 2021, indicating a structural recovery in the market[8] - Future land supply is expected to remain constrained, with policies focusing on reducing total supply while enhancing the quality of land offered in core urban areas[2]

Core Viewpoint - The average premium rate for land transactions in key cities has reached a new high of 13.4%, driven by high-premium sales of high-total-price land parcels in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, marking the first time since July 2021 that the average premium rate has exceeded 10% [2][3]. Group 1: Land Transaction Data - In February, despite a continuous decline in land transaction area, high-premium sales in major cities led to a year-on-year increase in land transaction amounts, with a total transaction amount of 91.7 billion yuan, up 39% year-on-year [3]. - The average floor price reached 4019 yuan per square meter, a 48% increase compared to the same period last month, due to a higher proportion of premium land transactions in first and second-tier cities [3]. - The average premium rate in monitored cities increased by 4.7 percentage points from the previous month, marking a significant rise [3]. Group 2: High-Premium Land Transactions - Major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou each had transaction amounts exceeding 10 billion yuan, with six out of the top ten cities in terms of transaction amount having average premium rates above 10% [4]. - Notably, the land parcel in Hangzhou's Chengdong New City achieved a premium rate of 72.5%, while a parcel in Zhengzhou's Jinshui District reached an 87% premium rate, the highest in nearly three years [4]. - Shanghai is set to potentially break its land price record with a new parcel priced at 160,000 yuan per square meter if it passes the public notice period [4]. Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The land market's heat is expected to continue in the first half of the year, with a focus on high-premium land parcels in first and second-tier cities, while third and fourth-tier cities primarily see transactions at base prices [5][6]. - The market is experiencing a divergence in heat, reflecting differences in local stabilization efforts, with first and second-tier cities adopting strategies to supply quality land in smaller batches [5]. - Predictions indicate that the trend of high-premium transactions will expand from core city areas to surrounding regions with low inventory and strong purchasing power, leading to a potential recovery in land prices [6].

Core Viewpoint - The average premium rate for land transactions in key cities has reached a new high of 13.4%, driven by high-premium deals in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, marking the first time since July 2021 that the average premium rate has surpassed 10% [2][5]. Summary by Sections Land Transaction Trends - In February, despite a continuous decline in land transaction area, major cities experienced high-premium land deals, leading to a year-on-year increase in transaction amounts. The average premium rate reached a new high, with a total land supply of 27.02 million square meters across 300 cities, a month-on-month decrease of 22.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 36% [4]. - The total transaction amount for land reached 91.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39%, with first-tier cities accounting for 30.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27% [4]. Premium Rate Insights - The average premium rate of 13.4% represents an increase of 4.7 percentage points from the previous month, with several cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou seeing transaction amounts exceeding 10 billion yuan [5]. - Notably, six out of the top ten cities by transaction amount had average premium rates exceeding 10%, with some land parcels achieving premium rates over 20%, such as the 46th parcel in Hangzhou's Chengdong New City, which had a premium rate of 72.5% [5]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain its heat in the first half of the year, with more high-premium quality residential land anticipated to emerge, particularly in areas with low inventory and strong purchasing power [6][7]. - The trends indicate that high-premium transactions for quality residential land in key cities will become the norm, with land heat expected to spread from core city areas to surrounding regions [7][8].