Group 1: Energy Crude Oil - The short - term strategy is to sell at high prices, with the estimated average price of Brent crude in Q4 dropping to $63 per barrel from $67 in Q3. There are still geopolitical risks and supply disturbances [1] Fuel Oil - It is expected to follow crude oil in a weak and volatile pattern. High - sulfur demand is falling, and low - sulfur supply is under pressure, but both lack strong price drivers [19] Natural Gas (implied in LPG) - LPG is expected to trade in a bottom - grinding pattern. Supply has decreased slightly, demand has increased marginally, and the import cost is expected to improve [21] Coal (implied in Coke and Coking Coal) - Coke and coking coal prices are relatively firm due to high iron - water production. However, there is a game between price increases and decreases, and inventory is accumulating [14][15] Bitumen - It showed a relatively small decline in the oil products market. Demand is increasing due to pre - holiday rush work, and inventory is decreasing [20] Group 2: Metals Precious Metals - They are in a medium - term upward trend but should be treated with caution in the short term due to inflation pressure and geopolitical games [2] Base Metals - Aluminum: It is in a callback. Market drivers are weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether pre - holiday stocking can drive positive feedback between inventory and spot [3] - Zinc: Short - term rebounds may occur, but the overall strategy is to sell on rebounds due to the supply - demand imbalance during the holiday [6] - Lead: The fundamentals have improved in the short term, but the upward trend is under pressure due to external market supply [7] - Nickel: The supply disturbance has subsided, and the overall trend is weak [8] - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: In the context of "anti - involution", it is recommended to buy on dips [16][17] Iron and Steel - Steel prices are in a rebound but with limited upside due to weak demand. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level [12][13] Group 3: Chemicals Polycrystalline Silicon - The short - term futures may face a correction, but there may be a chance for a phased recovery if it stabilizes at the support level [10] Industrial Silicon - It is expected to continue the volatile pattern as the supply - demand contradiction persists [11] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may show a weak and volatile trend due to supply - demand imbalance. Caustic soda has a game between weak reality and strong expectations [27] PX and PTA - Their market expectations are weakening, and the processing margins have limited room for repair [28] Ethylene Glycol - It is under pressure due to new device expectations, but the current supply pressure is not large [29] Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Chip - Short - fiber can be considered for long - term allocation, while bottle - grade chip has limited room for processing margin recovery [30] Glass - It is in a pattern of high supply and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and look for long opportunities near the cost [31] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the impact of typhoon weather on supply [32] Urea - Supply is increasing, and the market may continue to be under pressure in the short term [22] Methanol - It is in a weak position in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of overseas device gas restrictions [23] Pure Benzene - The reality is okay, but the expectation is weak due to high import expectations and poor downstream profits [24] Styrene - Supply is increasing more than demand, and the price trend is weak [25] Polypropylene and Plastic - They are in a weak and volatile pattern due to the game between supply and demand [26] Group 4: Agricultural Products Grains - Corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom due to sufficient supply [38] Oilseeds and Oils - Soybean and soybean meal may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and soybean meal can be cautiously bullish in the long term. Soybean oil and palm oil should pay attention to trade trends and can be considered for long - term buying [34][35] Cotton - It is recommended to wait and see after the downward break. New cotton production is expected to be high, but the impact of possible抢购is controllable [40] Sugar - US sugar is under pressure, and the domestic market focuses on the next season's production estimate [41] Fruit - Apple futures are expected to decline in the short term due to expected high inventory [42] Wood - The price increase momentum is insufficient due to weak peak - season demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [43] Pulp - It is in a low - level volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to inventory and warehouse receipt changes [44] Group 5: Others Shipping - The container shipping index may return to the downward channel if the Maersk opening price continues to decline [18] Stock Index - The stock market is in a volatile state, and it is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors in the medium term and consider the Hang Seng Technology Index [44] Bond - The bond market shows a structural differentiation, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [45]

火光划破清晨，警报声在特拉维夫上空回荡。数百万居民仓皇逃往防空洞——这不是电影情节，而是今天以色列真实上演的惊险场景。 令人震惊的是，这次袭击竟源自1600公里外的也门。胡塞武装发言人叶海亚·萨雷亚在视频中严肃宣布：我们成功使用'巴勒斯坦2型'多弹头高超音速导弹击 中目标。这番斩钉截铁的宣言似乎在向世界宣告：他们的军火库已不再局限于简易火箭和无人机。 以色列军方随即回应：我们拦截了一枚来自也门方向的 导弹。虽然语气镇定，但民众心中仍存疑虑：真的全部拦截成功了吗？ 高超音速这个关键词正在改写战争规则。超过5马赫的极速配合不可预测的变轨能 力，让现有防御系统面临严峻挑战。此前，只有少数军事强国掌握这项技术。如今，这个被戏称为拖鞋军的组织竟也宣称拥有如此利器——无论真假，这种 声明本身已构成心理威慑。 导弹的命名巴勒斯坦2型同样耐人寻味。这不仅是武器代号，更是信息战的一部分。去年亮相的初代型号曾被质疑真实性，如今 升级版加入高超音速和多弹头等特性，显然意在提升威慑层级。 伊朗的技术支持隐约可见。从波斯湾矛到法塔赫系列导弹，伊朗长期研发高超音速技术。 现在，这些技术可能正转移给盟友。也门的荒漠成为新武器试验场，而以色 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent performance and investment trends in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly focusing on the Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) which experienced a market pullback but saw significant net subscriptions [1] - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) has attracted a total of 181 million yuan in the past 20 days, reaching a historical high of 281 million yuan as of September 15 [1] - Key component stocks such as China Rare Earth, Huaxi Nonferrous, and others have seen declines exceeding 5%, negatively impacting the index performance, while stocks like Lichung Group and Baowu Magnesium have shown positive performance [1] Group 2 - On September 15, spot gold closed at a historical high of $3678.89 per ounce, marking a significant milestone in global financial asset pricing, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased demand for safe-haven assets [3] - The anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts are expected to boost non-ferrous metal prices by increasing the attractiveness of physical assets, depreciating the dollar, and lowering borrowing costs for companies, which could enhance demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [3][4] - The current market dynamics suggest a tight supply-demand balance for industrial metals, with emerging industry demands and limited supply growth contributing to price stability [4] Group 3 - The strategic importance of rare earths, tungsten, and antimony is emphasized due to their benefits from global geopolitical dynamics [4] - The "anti-involution" policy in China is expected to positively influence the lithium, cobalt, and aluminum sectors, leading to a valuation recovery in these areas [4] - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) and its linked funds are designed to track the performance of the non-ferrous metal index, which includes a diversified portfolio of metals such as copper, aluminum, rare earths, and gold, thus providing risk diversification for investors [4]

Group 1 - The health issues of President Trump raise concerns about the leadership's ability to govern effectively, especially in the context of an aging political landscape in the U.S. [3][10] - The recent sale of $28 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds by a major country has brought its holdings to a 16-year low, indicating a significant shift in foreign investment sentiment towards U.S. debt [6][8] - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with Moody's downgrading its sovereign credit rating, leading to increased concerns about fiscal stability and rising borrowing costs [8][10] Group 2 - The geopolitical implications of the bond sell-off suggest a strategic move to diversify foreign reserves and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, as countries adjust their asset structures in response to U.S. trade policies [8][10] - The combination of Trump's health issues and the bond sell-off contributes to increased uncertainty in U.S. policies, which may further erode foreign confidence in U.S. Treasury securities [6][9] - The potential for rising interest rates on 10-year Treasury bonds, which have surpassed 4.5%, indicates a growing cost of borrowing for the U.S. government, potentially leading to economic challenges [8][9]

与此同时，特朗普政府解雇库克引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧，这导致市场避险需求增加，成为利多 黄金因素之一。据悉，美国总统特朗普一直强调，美联储降息可以减少国债利息支付，同时为制造业回 流提供低廉的资金成本，有利于投资；而美联储主席鲍威尔迟迟不降息，特朗普对此耿耿于怀。 对此，何燚表示，美联储最终会妥协，不会发生鲍威尔继续"硬杠"特朗普政府的局面，主要原因在于特 朗普是近几十年权力最大的一任总统，国会基本被共和党控制，而九名大法官中由共和党任命的则有六 位，这进一步巩固了特朗普的权力，因而他可以使用更多的手段施压美联储降息，而这也会导致美联储 独立性受到威胁，进而导致黄金上涨。 与此同时，何燚表示，地缘博弈持续恶化，尽管美国协调俄罗斯和乌克兰停战，但是短期仍然不见效 果，双方提出的停火条件存在分歧，无法达成一致。此外，亚太地区大国博弈及全球关税博弈持续，这 都推动利多因素持续发酵。中长期利多因素仍然存在，比如美债规模连创新高、全球央行购金等。 与此同时，除了黄金价格上涨外，白银也出现大涨。对此，赵复初表示，白银现货价格突破40美元大 关，创下了2011年以来的新高，但离1980年的历史高点（每盎司49.45美元 ...

Group 1 - The recent arrest of a suspect in the Nord Stream gas pipeline explosion case has reignited public interest in this significant event that impacted the European and global energy markets [1][9] - The Nord Stream pipeline is crucial for Russian energy exports to Europe, with Nord Stream 1 having a capacity of 65 billion cubic meters per year and Nord Stream 2 expected to increase this capacity to 110 billion cubic meters annually [5] - Following the explosion in September 2022, Europe experienced a 40% drop in gas supply, leading to a fourfold increase in gas prices and significant disruptions in various industries [5] Group 2 - Investigations into the explosion have been slow, with multiple countries involved, but the recent arrest of a Ukrainian national with military ties has added complexity to the case [9][10] - The explosion has been interpreted as a geopolitical maneuver, with the U.S. benefiting from increased LNG exports to Europe, which are now valued at $250 billion over three years [8] - The ongoing tensions and differing policies within the EU regarding Russian sanctions reflect the intricate dynamics of the energy crisis and geopolitical relations [10]

郭嘉昆表示，亚太是合作发展的高地，不是地缘博弈的棋局。和平发展、合作共赢是本地区人民的共同 愿望，希望有关国家与地区国家一道，多做真正有利于增进互信合作、促进和平稳定的事。 人民财讯8月29日电，8月29日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。有记者就英国海军航母停靠日本 相关情况提问。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

阅读此文前，麻烦您点击一下"关注"，方便您进行讨论和分享 给您带来不一样的参与感，感谢您的支持 最近这两张图全网刷屏，背后牵扯出的地缘博弈简直比国际大片还精彩！ ...

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions initiated by the Trump administration's tariffs on India have unexpectedly led to a thaw in China-India relations, resulting in cooperative agreements between the two nations [1][11]. Group 1: Trade and Economic Cooperation - The U.S. imposed tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods, causing significant economic distress in India, prompting the Modi government to seek support from China [1]. - In response, China agreed to facilitate the export of fertilizers, expedite shield machine export licenses, and implement a "white list fast approval" system for rare earth exports to India [3]. - India has reopened its border trade market, allowing heavy machinery from China to enter, symbolizing a shift from military confrontation to economic collaboration [3]. Group 2: Diplomatic Engagements - High-level meetings between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Indian Prime Minister Modi resulted in the establishment of new military communication channels and the resumption of traditional border trade markets [3]. - Wang Yi's visit included an invitation for Modi to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, where Modi plans to discuss joining the SCO's currency settlement system and other collaborative projects [9]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Technology Exchange - Indian pharmaceutical company Sun Pharmaceutical exchanged vaccine orders for technology from China's WuXi Biologics, while Tata Group secured rare earth materials for local Tesla motor production [5]. - China is set to invest in a new energy vehicle battery factory in Gujarat, enhancing bilateral economic ties and reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar through direct currency settlements between the yuan and rupee [5]. Group 4: Transportation and People-to-People Connections - Direct flights between Beijing and Delhi, as well as Shanghai and Mumbai, have resumed, and visa processing times have been shortened, facilitating trade and cultural exchanges [5]. - The increase in pilgrimage quotas for Indian devotees traveling to Tibet reflects a broader trend of improving people-to-people relations between the two countries [5].

Group 1 - The EU is facing significant economic repercussions due to China's sanctions, particularly affecting Eastern European energy and agricultural sectors [1][2] - UAB Urbo Bankas and Mano Bankas are critical financial institutions for energy and agricultural transactions in Eastern Europe, and their sanctions have severe implications for the region's economy [2] - The timing of China's retaliatory sanctions, following the EU's actions against Chinese banks, highlights a strategic response that has caught European businesses off guard [2] Group 2 - The EU's dependency on American energy sources has led to skyrocketing household electricity costs, with increases of up to 300% in some regions [3] - A controversial agreement between the EU and the US has resulted in the EU committing to purchase liquefied gas at prices 40% above market rates, raising concerns about economic sovereignty [3] - The EU's military reliance on the US is underscored by a report indicating that 78% of its military supplies come from American sources, limiting its operational capabilities [4]