一、原油近期市场行情总结 行情回顾:上周恩油价格里现出快速下跌后,出现了阶段性筑底的走势。在周一种朗普的特使史蒂 夫·维特科夫表示"俄岛取得了很大进展"后,原油价格快速下控,但随着周中美国加大对委内瑞拉油轮 制裁以及原油库存有所去庫的利好加持下,整体行情出现了止跌。对于行情而言,原油过制已逐渐计入 到盘面之中,目前市场主要围绕地球博弈进行交易,在本周泽连新基表现出对战争明显消极情绪,而普 京在年度采访中也备受民众对于战争的拷问,像鸟缓和女许有望迎来加速:另外美国对委内瑞拉沁轮采 取更大范围的制裁,若委内瑞拉整体出口出现实质性受限,或在阶段性提振油价。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 # > 原油价格: 截至2025年12月19日当周,布伦特原油期货结算价为60.5美元/桶,较上周下降0.6美元/桶(- 1.36%)：WTI原油期货结算价为56.7美元/桶,较上周下降0.8美元/摘《-1.36%》:DUBAI原油期货结算 价为60.9美元/桶,较上周下降0.6美元/桶(-0.94%)。 数据分析:本周EIA数据,原油库存出现了超预期的去库,主要因为下游CDU ...

Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - Progress in US-Ukraine talks may lead to a security assurance agreement, with Ukraine potentially promising not to join NATO in exchange for a collective defense framework similar to Article 5 of the NATO treaty[2] - Trump's administration has ordered a complete blockade on sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela, causing fluctuations in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil rising by 3% on December 17 and decreasing by 1.8% over the week[12] - The US Congress has passed the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, increasing military spending to a record $901 billion, which is $8 billion more than the Trump administration's request[16] Group 2: Future Focus Areas - Continued attention on US-China trade relations, particularly regarding tariffs and strategic industries, including semiconductors and critical minerals[22] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with a focus on the potential for renewed conflict in Gaza and the status of Iran nuclear negotiations[18] - The US government's strategy aims to strengthen control over the Western Hemisphere, with a focus on countering leftist governments in Latin America and securing energy resources[14]

本周行情综述 风险提示 地缘政治扰动超预期；海外经济出现衰退；行业及国际政策环境变化。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 原油：本周油价维持震荡。俄乌谈判进展顺利施压油价，柏林谈判美乌在多个关键议题上形成初步共识，美方表 示乌俄之间约 90%的问题已解决，准备前往俄罗斯继续推动谈判。同时欧盟理事会对俄罗斯"影子舰队"实施制 裁。而委内瑞拉局势反复，其原油的折扣幅度已扩大至较布油低 21 美元，而上周折价 14 至 15 美元。周中市场 预期特朗普或下令对委内瑞拉宣战，但 18 号特朗普在国情咨文演讲中未提到委内瑞拉，随后表示仍不排除与委 内瑞拉开战的可能性。总体看，俄乌和谈推进而美委局势紧张，地缘博弈持续。截止 12 月 18 日，WTI 现货收于 56.15 美元，环比-1.45 美元；BRENT 现货收于 61.43 美元，环比-0.95 美元。EIA12 月 12 日当周商业原油库存 环比-127.4 万桶，前值-181.2 万桶。其中库欣原油环比-74.2 万桶，前值+30.8 万桶。汽油库存环比+480.8 万 桶，前值+639.7 万桶。炼厂开工率环比+0.3%至 94.8%。美国原油库存下降，净进口 ...

12月18日，美国财政部公布的这组10月的美国财政部数据，引起了不少人的注意。 中国再次减持美债，金额达到118亿美元，持仓水平创下2008年以来最低，与此同时，加拿大出手更 猛，单月抛售567亿美元，刷新了过去几年的最大波动记录。 就在这两件事发生的前后，特朗普也在公开场合释放信号，要更换美联储主席，核心诉求是推动降息。 三件事实则互相关联，背后是一场关于资本流动、政策信心和地缘博弈的深层较量。 中国持续减持美债 中国这次减持118亿美元，并不是突发行为，从过去的趋势看，减持的节奏一直在持续，方向也很明 确。 持有美债的总量已经降低到了近十几年来的最低水平，与此同时，中国在其他储备资产上的配置也在悄 然发生变化，特别是在黄金储备的增加上，连续增持的节奏说明了这不是一次性操作，而是一种长期考 量下的调整。 这种调整背后，反映的是对外部环境变化的理性应对，美元作为全球主要储备货币，地位确实依旧稳 固，但它也不再具备十年前那种无可替代的安全感。 特别是在国际局势不确定性上升的背景下，依赖单一货币体系的风险逐渐显现，一旦出现高强度的金融 制裁、政策突变，或是汇率剧烈波动，对大型经济体的外储安全构成直接威胁。 因此， ...

王爷说财经讯：2025年12月19日突发大消息！欧洲理事会主席——科斯塔刚官宣：欧盟已正式批准2026-2027年度向乌克兰提供900亿欧元援助！ 这笔巨款相当于5700多亿人民币，能直接覆盖乌克兰明年近70%的预算赤字。 01、欧盟批准900亿欧元援助乌克兰！ 先把这事的来龙去脉掰扯清楚。 这次900亿欧元援助，是欧盟继2024年启动500亿欧元乌克兰援助机制后，又一笔超大规模资金支持。 根据官宣信息，资金将分两年拨付，主要用于乌克兰的政府运营、民生保障和基础设施修复。 但熟悉欧盟套路的都知道，这笔钱可不是成员国心甘情愿凑的"份子钱"。 毫无疑问，经过3年的战争，乌克兰已经快没钱撑下去了。 但你有没有发现一个关键问题？这笔钱到底从哪来？欧盟内部吵了半个月才达成共识，难道藏着不为人知的交易？欧洲民众都快扛不住能源涨价了，为啥还 要硬着头皮掏钱？ 03、钱从哪里来？谁来买单？ 泽连斯基之前就公开喊话，要是冲突延续到2026年，乌克兰至少需要1200亿美元才能维持运转，其中600亿得靠西方援助。 更关键的是， 美国那边援助已经"掉链子"，2025年7-10月乌克兰获得的援助金额跌到了冲突以来的第二低位，欧盟成了唯 ...

这种强硬姿态，让欧盟内部本就存在的分歧彻底暴露。匈牙利总理欧尔班明确表态须竭力避免没收俄资产，若立场不被考虑将诉诸欧盟法院，此前斯洛伐克 已与匈牙利持相同反对态度。更关键的是，比利时作为欧洲清算银行所在地，因担心遭遇俄法律报复和独自承担偿还责任而坚决反对，捷克、意大利也加入 反对阵营，联手推动发行欧盟联合债券的替代方案，却又面临债务负担与匈牙利等国反对的双重阻碍。 外部压力同样让欧盟进退两难。美国虽与欧洲同为援乌阵营，却在此事上持反对态度，更打算将部分俄资产用于自身主导的重建工作，对欧洲施压阻止其用 资产资助乌克兰。内部分歧难弥合，外部压力又叠加，让欧盟原本计划在12月峰会上敲定的资产动用方案充满不确定性。而峰会同时要解决的2026至2027年 乌克兰财政需求问题，在当前的僵局下更显渺茫。资产动用人手不足，成员国又不愿自掏腰包，资金链的断裂直接将压力传导至乌克兰前线。 财政枯竭的直接后果是军事补给的乏力，这让乌军在战场上的处境愈发艰难。而俄军不断取得的战果，恰好成为特朗普政府施压泽连斯基的筹码。特朗普团 队向基辅发出的最后通牒直白而强硬：接受现有条件，否则将失去美国的慷慨支持。当被问及是否施压乌克兰放弃领土时 ...

一般情况下，大国间针对他国领土的密谋传闻不会引发如此广泛的国际震动，但此次美俄高层近期密集 私下接触，且双方在乌克兰问题上的表态均出现微妙软化，有欧洲媒体披露，美俄正在就乌克兰部分地 区的"势力范围划分"进行秘密磋商，相关消息一出，立刻引发乌克兰政府的强烈抗议。所以这次传闻的 冲击力这么强，对欧洲各国的心理冲击不小，这也是国际社会对美俄主导地区格局担忧的直接体现。 近期俄乌冲突局势愈发扑朔迷离，美俄两国的微妙互动引发多方揣测，欧洲则深陷能源与安全双重困 境，从美俄疑似密谋的传闻到马克龙紧急访华，再到欧洲内部自救行动的浮现，一系列事件串联起复杂 的地缘博弈，欧洲能否突破困局引发全球关注。 第二是马克龙紧急访华。像欧洲大国领导人如此仓促的访华行动通常不会如此突然，但面对日益严峻的 能源危机和安全困境，马克龙绕过常规外交流程，紧急敲定访华行程，期间重点与中方探讨能源合作、 中欧贸易以及乌克兰问题的政治解决路径。这次访华被视作欧洲寻求外交突围的关键一步，也暴露了欧 洲在美俄博弈中的被动处境，对推动中欧协作缓解危机具有重要意义。 第三是欧洲能源自救提速。能源短缺的困境已让欧洲多国不堪重负，欧盟近期紧急出台"能源独立行动 ...

Core Points - The Greek decision on November 27 allows the American company Onex to acquire 40 hectares of land at Elefsina Port, expanding its operations from shipbuilding to logistics and defense, which is strategically located near the Chinese-operated Piraeus Port [1][2] - Greek Development Minister Takis' statement about strengthening strategic cooperation with the U.S. is seen as a move to counter China's influence in the Mediterranean, indicating a geopolitical calculation behind the economic transformation [1][2] Group 1: Economic Implications - Greece's economy has been struggling due to a debt crisis, and the Elefsina shipyard was on the brink of bankruptcy before Onex's acquisition, which brought in $125 million in financing [2] - The expansion aims to transform the port into an energy hub and create jobs through defense and logistics operations, reflecting Greece's strategy to leverage foreign investment for development [2][4] Group 2: Strategic Risks - The competition and security risks posed by Chinese operations at Piraeus Port are highlighted, as Elefsina Port's proximity to military bases could allow the U.S. to monitor Chinese activities, creating potential operational challenges for Chinese investments [2][3] - The U.S. aims to establish a network of Mediterranean ports, including Elefsina, Volos, and Alexandroupolis, to limit Chinese influence in Southern Europe, which could complicate future Chinese acquisitions in Europe [3][5] Group 3: Geopolitical Dynamics - The U.S. strategy involves using capital to gain control over Greek port resources while simultaneously establishing military and logistics capabilities to counter China in the Mediterranean [5][6] - The Greek parliament's unanimous support for the port deal reflects the political pressure from the U.S., as Greece, being a NATO member, relies heavily on American military and security support [5][6] Group 4: Comparative Analysis - In contrast to Greece's cautious approach, Italy has embraced Chinese investment in its ports, leading to significant growth in port throughput, showcasing a different strategy in handling foreign investments [5][6] - The U.S. port strategy in the Mediterranean not only targets China but also aims to replace Russia's energy influence, particularly in the context of the Alexandroupolis port [6][9] Group 5: Future Considerations - The key for China lies in deepening cooperation with Piraeus Port and other Mediterranean countries to avoid being encircled by U.S. port investments, emphasizing the importance of strategic partnerships [6][9] - The ongoing geopolitical maneuvering in the Mediterranean reflects broader global power dynamics, with implications for the Belt and Road Initiative and regional economic cooperation [9]

Core Viewpoint - China's recent export controls on rare earth elements, particularly gallium and germanium, are aimed at countering U.S. military actions and protecting national security, significantly impacting global supply chains and prices of these critical materials [1][3][5]. Group 1: Export Controls and Their Implications - In July 2023, China announced a ban on the export of gallium for military use, followed by similar restrictions on germanium in November and rare earth refining technologies in December [1][3]. - The U.S. relies heavily on China for rare earth imports, with 83.7% of its rare earth needs and 97% of heavy rare earths sourced from China as of 2024 [3][5]. - The price of gallium surged from 1685 yuan per kilogram to 2585 yuan, a 53% increase, while germanium prices rose by 64% [5][11]. Group 2: U.S. Response and Supply Chain Challenges - Despite China's restrictions, the U.S. has sought alternative sources, importing significant quantities of antimony from Thailand and Mexico, indicating a workaround to the export bans [7][9]. - The U.S. defense sector consumes 35% of its rare earths for military applications, highlighting the critical nature of these materials for national security [5][14]. - The Pentagon has raised alarms about supply chain vulnerabilities, with a report indicating that a 90-day supply chain disruption could lead to 78% of defense contractors shutting down [5][14]. Group 3: Smuggling and Regulatory Measures - Smuggling networks have emerged, with Chinese companies reportedly rerouting materials through third countries to bypass export controls [9][11]. - China has initiated a crackdown on smuggling operations, implementing stricter regulations and penalties for violations, including a new rare earth management regulation effective October 1, 2023 [19][20]. - The effectiveness of these measures is reflected in a 10% increase in rare earth exports in early 2025, alongside a significant reduction in smuggling cases [24][26]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing regulatory measures and international cooperation are expected to stabilize China's rare earth supply and maintain its dominance in the global market [26]. - The U.S. military's reliance on Chinese rare earths poses long-term risks, as high prices and supply chain disruptions could lead to increased costs for defense contractors and consumers [14][26]. - China's strategic control over rare earth resources is likely to reshape global supply chains, emphasizing the importance of compliance and regulatory frameworks in international trade [26].

Core Points - The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office has modified the transparency rules for patent invalidation applications, particularly scrutinizing those from foreign companies, which is seen as a discriminatory measure against Chinese enterprises [1][2] - This change is perceived as an attempt to weaponize intellectual property protection, undermining China's technological innovation capabilities and legal rights in the U.S. market [1][2] - The adjustment to the rules is viewed as a geopolitical maneuver rather than a genuine effort to enhance the patent system, reflecting the U.S.'s anxiety over China's advancements in key technology sectors [2][3] Group 1 - The U.S. has historically maintained economic hegemony through its advantages in capital and technology, but is now increasingly anxious about China's rapid progress in critical technology fields [2] - The modification of the patent invalidation application rules is seen as a selective barrier aimed at weakening the legal recourse of Chinese companies in the U.S. [1][2] - The U.S. has criticized China for insufficient reforms in intellectual property protection while ignoring China's substantial efforts and achievements in this area [2] Group 2 - Intellectual property should serve the advancement of technology for all humanity, rather than being used as a political tool by individual countries [3] - The weaponization of intellectual property protection is expected to hinder global technological collaboration and disrupt market fairness and innovation environments [3] - Such actions by the U.S. may ultimately damage its own institutional credibility and innovative capacity [3]