| | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2026/1/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 环比 | 数据指标 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1229.000 | 51.4↑ EC次主力收盘价 1493.2 | +65.90↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2604-EC2606价差 | | -264.20 -15.90↓ EC2604-EC2608价差 -331.80 | +2.70↑ | | EC合约基差 | -35.10↓ | 630.31 | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 1499↑ | 40146 | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1859.31 | -94.88↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 1,294.32 | -10.95↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | 1457.86 | -116.26↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） 1,227.97 | 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 CCFI（综合指数）（周） | 1208.75 | -1.10↓ CCFI（欧线）（周） 1,588.19 | 5.59↑ | ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2026/1/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 62.1↑ EC次主力收盘价 1447.6 | 1200.200 | | | +48.60↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2604-EC2606价差 +27.20↑ EC2604-EC2608价差 | -247.40 | | -323.80 | +33.40↑ | | EC合约基差 | -156.78↓ | 659.11 | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 541↑ | 41690 | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | -94.88 ...

Revenue Recognition for Various Services - Revenue from installation fees should be recognized based on the completion progress of the installation work, as it is a condition attached to the sale of goods [1] - Revenue from advertising media charges should be recognized when the advertisement or commercial activity is presented to the public, with production costs recognized based on the completion progress of the advertisement [1] - Revenue from software fees for custom development should be recognized according to the completion progress of the software development [1] - Service fees that are distinguishable and included in the sale price of goods should be recognized over the period in which the service is provided [1] - Revenue from artistic performances, banquets, and other special events should be recognized when the relevant activities occur, with pre-collected fees allocated reasonably to each activity [1] Membership Fees - Membership fees for obtaining membership only allow access to membership status, with all other services or goods charged separately, should be recognized as revenue upon receipt of the membership fee [2] - If members receive various services or goods during the membership period without additional fees or at discounted prices, the membership fee should be recognized as revenue over the entire benefit period [2] Royalties and Service Fees - Royalties for providing equipment and other tangible assets should be recognized upon delivery or transfer of ownership of the assets; royalties for initial and subsequent services should be recognized when the services are provided [3] - Long-term service fees collected for repeated services should be recognized when the relevant service activities occur [4] Policy Basis - According to the notice from the National Taxation Administration, enterprises should use the percentage of completion method to recognize service income when the results of service transactions can be reliably estimated [6] - Reliable estimation of service transaction results requires that the amount of income can be reliably measured, the completion progress can be reliably determined, and the costs incurred and to be incurred can be reliably accounted for [6] - Methods for determining the completion progress of service provision include measuring completed work, the proportion of services provided to total services, and the proportion of costs incurred to total costs [7] - The total amount of service income should be determined based on the contract or agreement price, and the current period's service income should be recognized accordingly [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses common errors related to property tax and urban land use tax declarations, highlighting discrepancies between reported property tax and urban land use tax due to potential misreporting or mismatched property unit numbers [4][5] - It emphasizes the importance of self-checking whether both property tax and urban land use tax have been declared, and if not, to promptly rectify the situation [5] - The article outlines the process for verifying tax source information through the electronic tax bureau, including steps to access and fill out the necessary forms [6][12] Group 2 - It identifies frequent mistakes such as having recorded land asset values in financial accounts without corresponding land tax source registration, leading to mismatches [9][10] - The article advises companies to ensure that any changes in land ownership, usage, or area are promptly reported to tax authorities to maintain accurate tax source registration [10] - It highlights the need for companies to reconcile differences between the asset values reported in corporate income tax returns and property tax bases, suggesting a thorough review of fixed and intangible asset accounts [11] Group 3 - The article provides a reminder for companies to correct any identified discrepancies in tax source information and to recheck their declarations after making necessary adjustments [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a simplified guide for transferring social insurance across provinces in China, emphasizing ease of process and online options for applicants [2][3]. Group 1: Eligibility for Transfer - Individuals eligible to apply for the transfer of enterprise employee pension insurance include those returning to their registered residence for employment, those approved for job transfers by relevant authorities, those who have not met the 10-year contribution requirement at their current location, and those under certain age limits [5]. Group 2: Transfer Process - The transfer process can be completed in three steps: first, determine eligibility; second, choose the method of application; and third, track the application progress [3][16]. - For online applications, individuals can use the National Social Insurance Public Service Platform or the "Yukuaiban" app to submit their transfer requests [8][10]. Group 3: Application Methods - Method one involves logging into the National Social Insurance Public Service Platform and filling out the necessary information for the transfer application [8]. - Method two allows users to download the "Yukuaiban" app, register, and submit their application through the electronic social security card feature [10][14]. - Offline applications can be made by visiting the local social insurance agency with valid identification [15]. Group 4: Application Tracking - After submission, applicants can track the status of their transfer application through the National Social Insurance Public Service Platform, the "Zhangshang 12333" app, or via electronic social security card channels [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the procedures for handling red invoices in the context of returns and the specific requirements for both buyers and sellers when invoices have been certified for tax deductions [2][4]. Group 1: Invoice Handling Procedures - When a buyer wants to return goods and the invoice has been certified for tax deduction, the handling of the invoice depends on specific circumstances [2]. - According to the "Implementation Rules for the Invoice Management Measures," if a sales return occurs, a red invoice must be issued [2]. - If the buyer has not certified the deduction, the seller can issue a red invoice by confirming the information [2]. Group 2: Red Invoice Issuance Process - The seller or buyer must log into the electronic tax bureau and navigate to the relevant sections to issue a red invoice [4]. - If the buyer has certified the deduction, both parties must issue a "Red Invoice Information Confirmation Form" to proceed with the issuance of the red invoice [4]. - The confirmation must be completed within 72 hours; otherwise, it will automatically become invalid [4]. Group 3: Taxpayer Status Changes - Taxpayers who no longer meet the criteria for small-scale taxpayer status must report this to the tax authority in writing during the change period [10]. - If a small-scale taxpayer exceeds the sales threshold, they must follow the proper procedures to change their tax status [11]. - The tax authority will notify the taxpayer within five working days if they are found to no longer qualify for small-scale taxpayer status [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2602 closed down 2.59%, and the far - month contracts fell between 3% and 8%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1956.39, up 160.56 points from last week, a month - on - month increase of 8.9% [6][39]. - The cancellation of the full - refund of value - added tax on photovoltaic products is expected to lead to a rush of shipments, boosting long - term contract cargo volume. However, after the trading sentiment stabilizes, the price increase fades, and the support from the spot side weakens, causing the futures price to decline [6][39]. - China's foreign trade level in December 2026 rebounded beyond expectations, with significant improvements in both imports and exports, possibly related to the cancellation of value - added tax export rebates for some commodities and pre - holiday rush exports. China's exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate in 2026 [6][39]. - Spot freight rates for the fourth week were between $2600 - $3200 for large containers. Maersk's large container price in the fourth week was $2700, up $100 from the third week [6][39]. - Geopolitically, there are expectations of an end to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the first half of 2026, and the expectation of the Red Sea's resumption of navigation has improved. Eurozone inflation pressure has eased, weakening the market's expectation of an interest rate hike by the European Central Bank before the end of the year [6][39]. - Overall, the announced freight rate increase has not been implemented, many shipping companies have successively lowered prices, weakening the support for futures prices. The effect of the photovoltaic tax - refund policy on rush exports has also quickly weakened after the trading sentiment cooled. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of shipping companies' announced price increases. Although trade relations are gradually improving, China's exports to the US are still under pressure, and the boost from the traditional peak season may be weaker than expected. Investors are advised to be cautious [7][40]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review - Futures contracts: EC2602 fell 1.13%, EC2604 fell 2.59%, EC2606 fell 7.67%, EC2608 fell 3.61%, EC2610 fell 4.69%, and EC2612 fell 4.22%. The SCFIS index rose 8.9% [10]. - The price of the main contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures first rose and then fell this week. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2604 contract showed differentiation [13][15]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - The central bank took measures to support high - quality economic development, including lowering re - loan and re - discount rates, increasing various loan quotas, and adjusting the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing mortgages. The central bank said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year [19]. - The US will impose a 25% import ad - valorem tariff on some imported semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives starting from January 15 [19]. - The World Bank raised its 2026 global economic growth forecast to 2.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous forecast. It predicted that the US GDP growth rate will reach 2.2% in 2026, while the economic growth rates of the Eurozone and Japan will slow down [19]. - The EU will issue a guidance document on price commitment applications for the China - EU electric vehicle case, and China's electromechanical chamber of commerce will encourage and support relevant enterprises to apply for price commitments [19]. 3.3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and price difference of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts shrank this week [26]. - The export container freight rate index rebounded slightly this week [27]. - Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, and the shipping capacity on the European line rebounded slightly. The BDI and BPI declined this week, and freight rates fluctuated slightly [31]. - The charter price of Panamax ships declined this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar narrowed [34]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined this week. The cancellation of the full - refund of value - added tax on photovoltaic products led to short - term price increases, but the effect weakened later. China's foreign trade improved in December, and spot freight rates increased slightly. Geopolitical factors improved the expectation of the Red Sea's resumption of navigation, and Eurozone inflation pressure eased [39]. - The announced freight rate increase has not been implemented, and the support for futures prices has weakened. The boost from the traditional peak season may be weaker than expected. Investors are advised to be cautious and pay attention to geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, but the black - series products still oscillated at the bottom. The actual terminal demand for steel is still weak, and the macro - policy is in a window period. Attention should be paid to the destocking of hot - rolled coils, the "dual - carbon" policies, and their impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [2] - The supply of iron ore is expected to gradually enter the off - season, and after the recovery of molten iron production, the supply - demand balance is expected to improve marginally. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and the focus is on the inventory replenishment of steel mills and the rhythm of molten iron production [5] - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, especially in the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors. However, attention should be paid to the short - term high - volatility risks. The future market trends of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon are mainly influenced by market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply contraction expectations [8][9] - The positive commodity market atmosphere and the news of coal production capacity reduction have driven the upward movement of coking coal prices. The coking coal and coke markets are expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the inventory replenishment of downstream enterprises and market sentiment [13][14] - Industrial silicon is under inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest. The polysilicon price is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and official policies [17][20] - The glass price has been boosted by production line cold - repairs and cost increases, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. The soda ash market is still weak due to continuous supply pressure and weak demand [23][25] 3. Summary of Each Category Steel Market Information - The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3162 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.126%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 57,766 tons, a net increase of 1,833 tons. The open interest of the main contract was 1.6915 million lots, an increase of 3,518 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai aggregated prices were 3,210 yuan/ton and 3,300 yuan/ton respectively, with no change [1] - The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3,306 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.090%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 173,103 tons, with no change. The open interest of the main contract was 1.4489 million lots, an increase of 8,625 lots. The Lecong and Shanghai aggregated prices were 3,280 yuan/ton and 3,290 yuan/ton respectively, with the Shanghai price up 10 yuan/ton [1] Strategy Views - The hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, demand continued to weaken, and inventory continued to decline slightly. Rebar production increased counter - seasonally, demand declined, and inventory increased slightly. The black - series products oscillated at the bottom and were sensitive to news. Attention should be paid to hot - rolled coil destocking and "dual - carbon" policies [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 821.00 yuan/ton, up 0.18% (+1.50). The open interest increased by 9,381 lots to 662,700 lots. The weighted open interest was 1.002 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 828 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.50 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.76% [4] Strategy Views - The overseas iron ore shipments continued to decline. The shipments from Brazil decreased significantly, and those from Rio Tinto and BHP among the major mines decreased. Shipments from non - mainstream countries increased. The near - term arrivals continued to increase. The daily molten iron production was 229.5 tons, and the utilization rate of blast furnaces increased. The port inventory continued to increase, while the steel mills' imported ore inventory increased but remained at a low level. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel mills' inventory replenishment and molten iron production [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On January 14, the main manganese silicon contract (SM603) closed up 0.07% at 5,920 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5,750 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5,940 yuan/ton on the futures market, with a premium of 20 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF603) closed up 0.14% at 5,690 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5,850 yuan/ton, with a premium of 160 yuan/ton [7] - The manganese silicon price has been oscillating after breaking away from the medium - term downward trend since May 2024. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 6,000 yuan/ton and 6,250 yuan/ton and the support at 5,800 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon price has returned to range - bound trading. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 5,850 yuan/ton and 6,000 yuan/ton and the support at 5,500 yuan/ton [7] Strategy Views - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market has led to the upward movement of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon prices. However, the supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon remains loose, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Future market trends are mainly influenced by market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply contraction expectations. Attention should be paid to possible restrictions on manganese ore exports and "dual - carbon" policies [8][9] Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On January 14, the main coking coal contract (JM2605) oscillated and closed up 0.46% at 1,196.5 yuan/ton. The spot prices of Shanxi low - sulfur and medium - sulfur coking coal and Jinquan Meng 5 refined coal all increased to varying degrees, with premiums on the futures market. The main coke contract (J2605) closed down 0.37% at 1,738.5 yuan/ton. The spot prices of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke decreased and remained unchanged respectively, with discounts on the futures market [11] - The coking coal price is in a rebound cycle, with resistance at around 1,260 yuan/ton and support at 1,130 - 1,150 yuan/ton. The coke price is approaching the long - term downward trend line since October 2021. If it breaks through, the resistance is at around 1,850 yuan/ton, and the support is at 1,650 - 1,700 yuan/ton [12] Strategy Views - The strong coking coal price was driven by the positive commodity market sentiment and the news of coal production capacity reduction. The coking coal and coke markets are expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the inventory replenishment of downstream enterprises and market sentiment [13][14] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2605) closed at 8,755 yuan/ton, up 1.39% (+120). The weighted open interest decreased by 10,310 lots to 368,426 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 industrial silicon in East China remained unchanged, with basis values of 445 yuan/ton and 95 yuan/ton respectively [16] - The main polysilicon contract (PS2605) closed at 48,945 yuan/ton, down 0.12% (-60). The weighted open interest decreased by 930 lots to 87,836 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, with a basis of 5,805 yuan/ton [18] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon production in December remained stable, and the supply - side improvement was limited. The polysilicon production in January continued to decline, and the demand for industrial silicon was expected to be weak. If the production cut or shutdown plan of a polysilicon leading enterprise is implemented, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon will deteriorate. The industrial silicon price is expected to be under pressure [17] - The anti - monopoly meeting minutes and market adjustments have affected the polysilicon price. The spot price has increased, but downstream观望 sentiment is strong. If the production cut or shutdown plan is implemented, the supply pressure will be relieved. The polysilicon futures price is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and official policies [19][20] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The main glass contract closed at 1,096 yuan/ton on Wednesday, with no change. The prices of large - size glass in North China and Central China remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 134,800,000 boxes (-2.37%) to 55,518,000 boxes. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 25,090 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 8,485 lots [22] - The main soda ash contract closed at 1,222 yuan/ton on Wednesday, up 0.83% (+10). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 164,400 tons (+2.37%) to 1,572,700 tons, with increases in both heavy and light soda ash inventories. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 3,272 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased their positions by 4,260 lots [24] Strategy Views - The glass price has been boosted by production line cold - repairs and cost increases, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. Attention should be paid to inventory digestion and actual spot transactions, and it is recommended to wait and see [23] - The soda ash supply is stable, but the demand from the photovoltaic and float glass industries has decreased. The enterprise inventory has continued to accumulate, and the market is still weak [25]

Report Summary Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - On January 13, 2026, the A-share market experienced a collective correction, with the Shanghai Composite Index ending its 17-day winning streak. The trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached a record high of 3699.1 billion yuan, an increase of 54.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - Various futures products showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, market sentiment, and international policies. Summary by Product Stock Index Futures - On January 13, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.64% to 4138.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.37% to 14169.40 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.96% to 3321.89 points. The trading volume of the three markets reached 3699.1 billion yuan, an increase of 54.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index encountered resistance and fluctuated on January 13, closing at 4761.03, a decrease of 28.88 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On January 13, the weighted index of coke fluctuated weakly, closing at 1746.7, a decrease of 18.8 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal was also weak, closing at 1193.9 yuan, a decrease of 30.3 from the previous day [2][3]. - For coke, the supply side shows continuous recovery in coke - making enterprise operations, and the total coke inventory is at a low level compared to the same period. The demand side shows an increase in blast furnace operations and daily hot metal production. Some coke - making enterprises in Inner Mongolia proposed a price increase of 50 yuan/ton. For coking coal, mine production capacity is recovering, Mongolian coal imports are relatively sufficient, and clean coal inventory is accumulating. However, coke - making enterprise profits are in greater deficit [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar prices and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract fluctuated downward on January 13. As of January 12, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 2.1717 million tons, a decrease of 21.18% compared to the same period last year. The Thai Sugar Board expects the country's sugar production to reach 10.3 million tons in the 2025/26 season and may reduce to 10 million tons in the next year. The global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 4.7 million tons [4]. Rubber - Due to improved weather in Southeast Asian producing areas, increased raw material supply, and reduced spot quotes, Shanghai rubber fluctuated downward on January 13. In December 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.296 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. The cumulative retail sales in 2025 were 23.779 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 4% [4]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, on January 13, CBOT soybeans were weak. The US Department of Agriculture's January supply - demand report confirmed the loose supply - demand pattern of the US soybean market, lowered the US soybean export forecast, and raised the Brazilian soybean production forecast to 178 million tons. In the domestic market, on January 13, the main soybean meal contract M2505 closed at 2761 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.04%. The current soybean meal inventory in oil mills is at a relatively high level, and the resumption of the auction of imported reserve soybeans further enriches the domestic soybean supply [6]. Live Hogs - On January 13, the main live hog contract LH2603 closed at 11795 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.51%. The supply of medium - and large - sized hogs has slightly decreased in the first half of this month, but there is still a possibility of early slaughter by pig enterprises before the Spring Festival. The seasonal consumption such as pickled pork and sausage is ongoing, but the terminal consumption's acceptance of price increases is limited [6]. Palm Oil - On January 13, the palm oil market continued to rise. The main contract P2605 closed at 8778, an increase of 0.62% from the previous day. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board expects the 2026 palm oil inventory to be 2 million tons (compared to 3.05 million tons in 2025), the price to be between 4000 - 4300 ringgit/ton, and the production to be between 19.5 - 19.8 million tons (compared to 20.28 million tons in 2025) [6]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper market opened at 104500 yuan/ton, reached a high of 104990 yuan/ton, a low of 101970 yuan/ton, and closed at 102480 yuan/ton. The market is affected by factors such as the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest rate hikes, the off - season of domestic demand, the reduction of refined copper production, and the weak terminal consumption [6][7]. Cotton - On the night of January 13, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14745 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 642 lots compared to the previous trading day, and downstream spinning mills purchase as needed [7]. Iron Ore - On January 13, the main iron ore 2605 contract fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.24% and a closing price of 819.5 yuan. The supply and demand structure has improved, and the short - term price is in a volatile trend [7]. Asphalt - On January 13, the main asphalt 2603 contract fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.66% and a closing price of 3140 yuan. The supply is at a low level, the inventory is accumulating, the demand has decreased significantly, and the short - term price is in a volatile state under the support of crude oil costs [7]. Logs - The main log 2603 contract opened at 772, reached a low of 772, a high of 775.5, and closed at 774.5 on January 13, with a reduction of 254 lots in positions. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions [7][8]. Steel - On January 13, rb2605 closed at 3158 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3303 yuan/ton. The rising cost of coking coal supports steel prices, but downstream procurement is becoming more cautious, and the short - term steel price increase may slow down and enter a volatile state [8]. Alumina - On January 13, ao2605 closed at 2780 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina production capacity remains high, the supply is in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure. The consumption side shows weak ore transactions and a general trading atmosphere [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On January 13, al2603 closed at 24375 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is relatively positive for the non - ferrous market. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic products may stimulate short - term demand. The supply is normal, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand is shrinking [8][9].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Smoore International (06969) experienced a decline of over 4% in its stock price due to the announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration to cancel the export tax rebate for e-cigarette products starting from April 1, 2026, which will significantly impact profit margins [1] - The previous 13% tax rebate was crucial for companies to hedge costs and maintain international pricing advantages, and its removal means companies will have to bear the full VAT cost [1] - Zheshang Securities recently published a report indicating that the government is intensifying efforts to regulate illegal activities in the domestic e-cigarette production, sales, and export sectors, suggesting that the supply-side landscape of the industry will change [1] Group 2 - The report suggests that smaller illegal producers may be accelerated out of the market, which could benefit compliant companies like Smoore International, positioning it as a leading player in the industry [1]