Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory increases, and the overall inventory accumulation rate narrowing. Overseas shipments arriving at the port remain at a high level, rubber prices are fluctuating downward, tire companies are making appropriate low - price purchases according to demand, the overall procurement sentiment has slightly improved, and the warehouse outbound volume has increased slightly month - on - month, but it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. In terms of demand, as the production of previously overhauled enterprises gradually resumes to normal levels, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased month - on - month last week, but the shipment pace of each tire enterprise is slow, and short - term production control behavior still exists, so the increase in overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be limited. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,900 - 15,500 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,200 in the short term [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,985 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 50 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - rubber contract was 12,080 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 1 - 2 spread was - 15 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber was 2,905 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 127,685 lots, an increase of 3,726 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - rubber contract was 56,144 lots, an increase of 26,357 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 27,378 lots, an increase of 1,839 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - rubber was - 10,295 lots, a decrease of 4,066 lots. The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 46,030 tons, unchanged; the 20 - rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 56,752 tons, a decrease of 402 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,815 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,810 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,380 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 10,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shanghai rubber basis was - 365 yuan/ton, unchanged; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 685 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 20 - rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,806 yuan/ton, an increase of 74 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - rubber contract was 741 yuan/ton, an increase of 54 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 125 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 23.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 43.2 US dollars/ton, an increase of 70.2 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 126,100 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 256,400 tons, a decrease of 61,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.5%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.92%, an increase of 1.73 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 39.51 days, a decrease of 0.44 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 44.95 days, a decrease of 0.28 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, an increase of 6.63 million pieces [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying was 13.18%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying was 15.47%, a decrease of 1.08 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 19.71%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 19.73%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points [2] Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year, and a significant year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 488,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, an increase of 1.49%. The bonded area inventory was 73,900 tons, an increase of 2.08%; the general trade inventory was 414,800 tons, an increase of 1.38%. As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a month - on - month increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a month - on - month increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 泰国天气逐步正常，橡胶震荡走弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-08 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 天然橡胶:泰国天气逐步正常，橡胶震荡走弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）国内产区：本周云南产区原料价格基本持稳，产区陆续进入全面停割期。海南产区降水天气增加，对割胶作业扰动增强，但随着气温下降整体原料产 出呈现季节性减量趋势，当地加工厂高价采购原料积极性走低，原料收购价格有所下调。（2）泰国产区：周内泰东北维持旺产期产出，杯胶价格继续回落； | | 供给 | 中性 | 泰南洪水逐渐消退，恢复割胶 及工厂生产，虽有抢原料，但供应增量预期施压原料，胶水价格走跌。（3）越南产区：越南产区天气逐步转好，中北部的极 | | | | 端天气影响减弱，因进口胶减少，工厂采购成本上移 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent raw materials in Yunnan's rubber - producing areas remain stable, with farmers in the area starting to sell rubber blocks, and the supply is relatively abundant; in Hainan's producing areas, continuous rainfall and decreasing temperature have increased disruptions to rubber - tapping operations, reducing the output of fresh glue, but due to the decline in overseas factory offers, local processing plants are less willing to replenish high - priced raw materials, leading to a slight decrease in raw material prices [2]. - Currently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port is still accumulating significantly, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory increases. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for storage remain at a high level, but downstream factories are flexible in production scheduling and cautious in inventory preparation, resulting in a large - scale inventory accumulation at Qingdao Port [2]. - In terms of demand, some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance last week, dragging down the capacity utilization rate; full - steel tire enterprises that had maintenance resumed production, leading to a restorative increase in capacity utilization. This week, as the start - up of maintenance enterprises gradually returns to normal, it will drive a restorative increase in overall capacity utilization, but some enterprises have maintenance plans at the beginning of the month, which will limit the increase in overall capacity utilization [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,100 - 15,700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,500 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,360 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - rubber contract is 12,230 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2]. - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 10 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - rubber is - 5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber is 3,130 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 62,962 lots, down 3,978 lots; the position of the main 20 - rubber contract is 42,278 lots, down 2,933 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 31,480 lots, up 337 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - rubber is - 8,307 lots, up 665 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 41,400 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber in the exchange are 52,113 tons, up 1,411 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Thai Standard STR20 is 1,835 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian Standard SMR20 is 1,825 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars [2]. - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,200 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,500 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 10,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 510 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 700 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,949 yuan/ton, down 112 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - rubber contract is 719 yuan/ton, down 172 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 60.91 Thai baht/kg, down 0.46 Thai baht; the market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 56 Thai baht/kg, down 1 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 57.15 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 148.2 US dollars/ton, up 4.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 27 US dollars/ton, up 5.2 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically - specified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, up 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, down 61,100 tons [2]. - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.33%, up 1.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 69.19%, down 0.86 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 39.95 days, down 0.29 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 45.23 days, down 0.63 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.42 million pieces, down 720,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 51.68 million pieces, down 8.57 million pieces [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14.05%, up 0.61 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.28%, up 0.12 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.66%, down 0.32 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.66%, down 0.33 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 1 million vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 685,000 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [2]. - As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 481,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,700 tons, with an increase rate of 2.71%. The inventory in the bonded area was 72,400 tons, an increase rate of 0.69%; the inventory in general trade was 409,200 tons, an increase rate of 3.07% [2]. - As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.36 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.64 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.71 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.68 percentage points [2]. - In the first week of the future (November 30 - December 6, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly concentrated in northern Vietnam and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, which had less impact on rubber - tapping; in the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly distributed in western Indonesia and western Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas was moderate, which also had less impact on rubber - tapping [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate significantly, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for storage remain at a high level, but downstream factories arrange production flexibly and stock up cautiously, resulting in a large increase in the inventory accumulation at Qingdao Port. - In terms of demand, some semi - steel tire enterprises carried out maintenance last week, dragging down the enterprise capacity utilization rate; full - steel tire maintenance enterprises resumed work, and the capacity utilization rate increased. This week, as the maintenance enterprises gradually resume normal production, it will drive the overall capacity utilization rate to increase, but the maintenance arrangements of some enterprises at the beginning of the month will limit the increase range. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15100 - 15700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12000 - 12700 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 15250 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 12170 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan. - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 10 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 10 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3080 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 66940 lots, down 12655 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 45211 lots, down 1736 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 31817 lots, down 2468 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 8972 lots, up 1622 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 41400 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 50702 tons, down 605 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14800 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15350 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1845 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1835 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14680 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14630 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 10800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 10400 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 450 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 730 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13061 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 891 yuan/ton, up 178 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 60.91 Thai baht/kg, down 0.46 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 57.15 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 57 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 148.2 US dollars/ton, up 4.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 27 US dollars/ton, up 5.2 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 12.61 million tons, up 0.35 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 25.64 million tons, down 6.11 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.33%, up 1.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.19%, down 0.86 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 39.95 days, down 0.29 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 45.23 days, down 0.63 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.42 million pieces, down 720,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 51.68 million pieces, down 8.57 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 14.05%, up 0.61 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.28%, up 0.12 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.98%, up 1.69 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.99%, up 1.69 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared with 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. - As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 481,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,700 tons, an increase of 2.71%. The bonded area inventory was 72,400 tons, an increase of 0.69%; the general trade inventory was 409,200 tons, an increase of 3.07%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 6.55 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.43 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.23 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.66 percentage points. - As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.36 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.64 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.71 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.68 percentage points [2].

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber market is expected to enter a phase of range-bound fluctuations due to seasonal inventory accumulation and insufficient downstream demand [1][2] Supply Analysis - Domestic production areas are gradually entering a reduction and cessation period, while overseas regions like Thailand and Vietnam are experiencing continuous rainfall disruptions, leading to strong support for raw material prices on the cost side [1] - The volume of overseas shipments arriving at ports is showing a seasonal increase trend, but the accumulation of natural rubber inventory continues to suppress spot prices [1] Demand Analysis - As the end of the month approaches, some brands face monthly task pressures, leading to moderate replenishment actions by agents; however, overall demand performance is poor [1] - Channels and end-user sales are sparse, with most distributors showing insufficient willingness to restock, focusing more on digesting existing channel inventory [1] Market Outlook - The natural rubber inventory is entering a seasonal accumulation cycle, with expectations of further declines in downstream enterprise operations [1] - The market is anticipated to experience range-bound fluctuations, with future attention on the output situation of raw materials during the peak production period in major producing areas and macroeconomic changes [1] - If raw material supply is smooth, a weakening of rubber prices is expected; if supply is constrained, rubber prices are projected to operate within the range of 15,000 to 15,500 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Near-term raw material prices in Yunnan's rubber production areas have changed little. Although it has stopped raining in some areas, it remains cloudy, and raw material collection is still not ideal. In Hainan's production areas, the weather is okay, but the temperature has started to drop, the dry content of latex has declined, and local processing plants have gradually entered the winter stockpiling stage, maintaining a state of increasing prices to purchase raw materials. [2] - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to increase. The bonded warehouses are showing inventory reduction, while general trade continues to accumulate inventory. Overseas ship arrivals and warehousing still remain at a high level. Factories have sufficient replenishment in the early stage. The outbound goods from general trade warehouses are mostly for the delivery of previous orders. The downstream's willingness to stock up is low, and new orders are few, so the general trade inventory continues to accumulate. [2] - In terms of demand, tire enterprise orders are insufficient. Some enterprises have arranged maintenance during the cycle, and some have reduced production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. As the production scheduling of maintenance enterprises gradually resumes, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may show a restorative increase next week, but the overall demand improvement space is limited, and enterprises' production control continues, which will limit the increase range of capacity utilization. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,200 - 15,700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,300 - 12,700 in the short term. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - rubber contract is 12,320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan. [2] - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber is 2,930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 123,127 lots, a decrease of 3,000 lots; the position of the main 20 - rubber contract is 62,272 lots, an increase of 808 lots. [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 30,848 lots, a decrease of 1,192 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - rubber is - 11,220 lots, a decrease of 3,852 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 39,600 tons, a decrease of 76,460 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber are 49,795 tons, an increase of 201 tons. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,860 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,850 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 10,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan. [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 400 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan. [2] - The price of 20 - rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,111 yuan/ton, an increase of 73 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - rubber contract is 791 yuan/ton, an increase of 233 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 61.05 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheets) is 57.15 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht. [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) is 57 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.3 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 52.1 Thai baht/kg, unchanged. [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 149.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 19 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 5.4 US dollars/ton, an increase of 18 US dollars. [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, an increase of 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, an increase of 49,100 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The full - steel tire operating rate is 64.5%, a decrease of 0.96 percentage points; the semi - steel tire operating rate is 73.68%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points. [2] - The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.55 days, an increase of 0.35 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.36 days, an increase of 0.31 days. [2] - The monthly output of full - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, an increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, an increase of 2.19 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 16.46%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.43%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option is 20.32%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option is 20.33%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points. [2] Industry News - According to preliminary data from First Commercial Vehicle Network, in October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September this year, and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared with 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. [2] - According to statistics from Longzhong Information, as of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 452,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons, an increase of 0.70%. The bonded area inventory was 66,600 tons, a decrease of 1.76%; the general trade inventory was 386,000 tons, an increase of 1.13%. [2] - According to statistics from Longzhong Information, as of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points. [2]

Report Summary - **Report Date**: November 19, 2025 [1] - **Report Type**: Natural Rubber Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,250 - 15,700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,350 - 12,700 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,440 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,480 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan [2] - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 85 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 25 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - **Positions**: The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 126,127 lots, up 2,096 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 61,464 lots, up 61 lots [2] - **Net Positions**: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 29,656 lots, up 1,097 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 7,368 lots, up 450 lots [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 116,060 tons, up 160 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 49,594 tons, down 101 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Rubber Prices**: The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Vietnam 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - **Synthetic Rubber Prices**: The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene styrene 1502 was 10,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Basis**: The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 490 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the basis of the main non - standard product of Shanghai rubber contract was - 695 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Thai Rubber Prices**: The market reference price of Thai smoked sheet was 60.55 Thai baht/kg, up 0.22 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai rubber sheet was 56.3 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht [2] - **Production Profits**: The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 149.6 US dollars/ton, up 19 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 5.4 US dollars/ton, up 18 US dollars [2] - **Imports**: The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 122,600 tons, up 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 317,500 tons, up 49,100 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - **Tire开工率**: The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.5%, down 0.96 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.68%, up 0.01 percentage points [2] - **Tire Inventories**: The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.55 days, up 0.35 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.36 days, up 0.31 days [2] - **Tire Output**: The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.14 million pieces, up 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.92%, up 0.32 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.34%, up 0.17 percentage points [2] - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 20.58%, up 0.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 20.57%, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - **Truck Sales**: In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 12% and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October, the cumulative sales exceeded 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22% [2] - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 452,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons, an increase of 0.70%. The bonded area inventory was 66,600 tons, a decrease of 1.76%; the general trade inventory was 386,000 tons, an increase of 1.13% [2] - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with the bonded warehouse showing destocking and general trade continuing to accumulate inventory Overseas vessel arrivals and warehousing remain at a high level, downstream stocking willingness is low, and new orders are scarce The demand side shows that most semi - steel tire enterprises' device operations are stable with narrow fluctuations in capacity utilization, while individual full - steel tire enterprises have maintenance arrangements, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate, which is expected to decline further The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15600 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12150 - 12600 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15295 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12345 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2950 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan The trading volume and net positions of the top 20 in both contracts also have corresponding changes, and the exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber increase by 7770 tons to 115900 tons, while the 20 - number rubber warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 49695 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of various types of rubber in the Shanghai market, such as state - owned whole latex, Vietnam 3L, and mixed rubber from Thailand and Malaysia, have increased by 50 yuan/ton The prices of butadiene styrene 1502 and cis - butadiene BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical are 10700 yuan/ton and 10500 yuan/ton respectively, with the former increasing by 200 yuan/ton and the latter remaining unchanged The basis of Shanghai rubber and its non - standard products, as well as the basis of 20 - number rubber, also have corresponding changes [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference prices of various forms of Thai raw rubber, such as smoked sheets, films, glue water, and cup glue, have different changes The theoretical production profits of RSS3 and STR20 are 149.6 dollars/ton and - 5.4 dollars/ton respectively, with increases of 19 dollars/ton and 18 dollars/ton The monthly import volumes of technically classified natural rubber and mixed rubber are 12.26 million tons and 31.75 million tons respectively, with increases of 0.95 million tons and 4.91 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rates of full - steel tires and semi - steel tires are 64.5% and 73.68% respectively, with the former decreasing by 0.96 percentage points and the latter increasing by 0.01 percentage points The inventory days of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong are 39.55 days and 45.36 days respectively, with increases of 0.35 days and 0.31 days The monthly production volumes of full - steel and semi - steel tires are 13.14 million pieces and 60.25 million pieces respectively, with increases of 110,000 pieces and 2.19 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of the underlying are 17.46% and 18.43% respectively, with the former decreasing by 0.05 percentage points and the latter increasing by 0.07 percentage points The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options are 20.57%, with increases of 0.1 and 0.11 percentage points respectively [2] 3.6 Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a 12% month - on - month decrease and a 40% year - on - year increase From January to October, the cumulative sales exceeded 916,000 vehicles, a 22% year - on - year increase As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade is 452,600 tons, a 0.70% increase from the previous period The inventory in the bonded area decreased by 1.76% to 66,600 tons, while the general trade inventory increased by 1.13% to 386,000 tons As of November 13, the capacity utilization rates of China's semi - steel and full - steel tire sample enterprises are 72.99% and 64.29% respectively, with corresponding month - on - month and year - on - year changes [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continued to accumulate, with the bonded warehouse showing destocking and general trade continuing to accumulate inventory. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for warehousing remained at a high level. Factories had sufficient replenishment in the early stage. Most of the outbound shipments from the general - trade warehouse were for the delivery of previous orders. Downstream stocking willingness was low, and new orders were few, so the general - trade inventory continued to accumulate. In terms of demand, last week, most semi - steel tire enterprises had stable device operation with narrow fluctuations in capacity utilization. Some all - steel tire enterprises had maintenance arrangements, dragging down the overall enterprise capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will further decline. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,570 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,400 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,315 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,355 yuan/ton. The Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 spread was 15 yuan/ton, and the 20 - number rubber 12 - 1 spread was - 70 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 10 yuan/ton. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 126,129 lots, a decrease of 3,854 lots. The position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 64,475 lots, a decrease of 30,902 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was 586 lots, and that of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was 493 lots. The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 108,130 tons, a decrease of 340 tons, and the 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 49,695 tons, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, and the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,200 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,840 US dollars/ton, and the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,840 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton, and the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 10,500 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 10,500 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The RSS3 theoretical production profit was 19 US dollars/ton, and the STR20 theoretical production profit was 149.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.4 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 0.95 million tons, and the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 12.26 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The all - steel tire opening rate was 64.5%, and the semi - steel tire opening rate was 73.68%. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.55 days, and those of semi - steel tires were 45.36 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 11 million pieces, and that of semi - steel tires was 6,025 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.51%, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 18.36%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option was 20.47%, and that of the at - the - money put option was 20.46% [2] Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 930,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared with 664,000 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 9.16 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 452,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons, an increase of 0.70%. The bonded area inventory was 66,600 tons, a decrease of 1.76%; the general trade inventory was 386,000 tons, an increase of 1.13%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 0.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.53 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.37 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.71 percentage points. As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the raw material side of the natural rubber market was firm, and rubber prices rebounded slightly. The import rubber market's offer prices rose, while factories were cautious about restocking. The futures market showed a volatile and strengthening pattern, and the spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber adjusted within a narrow range. The trading volume of real orders was light [6]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's raw material prices are stable, and the region is expected to enter the non - tapping season by the end of this month. Hainan's weather is favorable for tapping, and local factories are still offering higher prices for raw materials. The total inventory in Qingdao ports is still increasing, but the rate has slowed down. The bonded warehouse has a slight reduction in inventory, while the general trade warehouse continues to accumulate inventory. In the short term, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao may still be in an accumulation state [6]. - In terms of demand, most semi - steel tire enterprises' production capacity utilization rates fluctuated slightly, while some full - steel tire enterprises had maintenance plans, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected to decline further next week [6]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15000 - 15570 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12000 - 12600 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The raw material side of the natural rubber market was firm, and rubber prices rebounded slightly. The import rubber market's offer prices rose, and the futures market was volatile and strengthening. The spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber adjusted within a narrow range, and real - order trading was light [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Yunnan is expected to enter the non - tapping season by the end of the month, while Hainan's tapping is progressing well. Qingdao's inventory is still accumulating, but the rate has slowed. The demand side shows that the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire enterprises may decline further [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15000 - 15570, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12000 - 12600 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 1.47% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - grade rubber rose by 1.91% week - on - week [9]. - As of November 14, the 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 85, and the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - grade rubber was - 30 [19]. - As of November 14, the Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 108470 tons, a decrease of 10500 tons from last week; the 20 - grade rubber warehouse receipts were 49695 tons, an increase of 1109 tons from last week [25]. - **Spot Market** - As of November 13, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14800 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from last week [27]. - As of November 13, the basis of 20 - grade rubber was 798 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 145 yuan/ton from last week [34]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - As of November 13, the field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 56.3 (+0) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 52.1 (+0.2) Thai baht/kg. As of November 14, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 5.4 US dollars/ton, an increase of 18 US dollars/ton from last week [37]. - As of November 13, the latex price in Yunnan was 14000 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14300 yuan/ton, the same as last week [40]. - **Import Volume** - In September 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 59.59 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 471.72 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [43]. - **Inventory in Qingdao** - As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 44.95 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.18 tons, an increase of 0.40%. The bonded area inventory was 6.78 tons, a decrease of 0.74%; the general trade inventory was 38.17 tons, an increase of 0.60% [47]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Production Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points [50]. - **Tire Exports**: In September 2025, China's tire export volume was 68.78 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57 and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative tire export volume was 639.08 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88% [54]. - **Domestic Heavy - Truck Sales**: In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22% [57]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No information provided.