3300-14000区间波动，nr2507合约短线预计在11750-12350区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 天然橡胶产业日报 2025-06-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 13725 -870 | 75 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 20 20号胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) | 12050 -65 | 25 -40 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 1675 | 50 沪胶主力合 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term raw material supply of natural rubber is tight. Yunnan's output is limited due to weather, and Hainan's new rubber output is slow to increase. The raw material circulation in the market is tight, and local concentrated latex processing plants maintain the state of premium raw material procurement [2]. - Last week, the bonded and general trade warehouses in Qingdao port reduced their inventories, and the total inventory of spot in Qingdao decreased. The arrival of overseas goods continued to decrease, resulting in a continuous decline in the total inbound volume of spot in Qingdao. Tire enterprises mostly made low - price purchases according to their rigid needs, driving the total outbound volume in Qingdao to be greater than the inbound volume [2]. - The demand side shows that the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week. Some enterprises have short - term maintenance plans, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may still decline in the short term. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13300 - 14000, and the nr2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11750 - 12350 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 13545 yuan/ton, down 880 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was - 110 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 11965 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the 6 - 7 spread was - 55 yuan/ton. The price difference between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 1580 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 177633 lots, an increase of 173 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 42118 lots, a decrease of 1554 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 19818 lots, an increase of 1500 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 649 lots, an increase of 1021 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 193100 tons, a decrease of 200 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 19455 tons, an increase of 604 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Rubber Prices**: The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market was 1700 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 1700 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13520 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber Prices**: The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of Shanghai rubber was 5 yuan/ton, an increase of 260 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12221 yuan/ton, an increase of 183 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 256 yuan/ton, an increase of 238 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Thai Raw Material Prices**: The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 64.11 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.24 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 61.69 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 3.13 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 56 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 44.55 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 4.95 Thai baht [2]. - **Production Profits**: The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 208 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 66 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 3 US dollars/ton, an increase of 109 US dollars [2]. - **Import Volumes**: The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 18.68 million tons, a decrease of 2.93 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 24.87 million tons, a decrease of 3.29 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - **开工率**: The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.8%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.25%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points [2]. - **Inventory Days**: The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 41.96 days, a decrease of 0.9 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 46.22 days, a decrease of 0.78 days [2]. - **Production Volumes**: The monthly production volume of all - steel tires was 13.08 million pieces, a decrease of 610,000 pieces; the monthly production volume of semi - steel tires was 55.39 million pieces, a decrease of 4.27 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 26.93%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 30.26%, a decrease of 0.99 percentage points [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 23.37%, a decrease of 1.94 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 23.36%, a decrease of 1.95 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - **Rainfall in Southeast Asia**: In the first week of June 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. The rainfall in the red areas north of the equator was mainly concentrated in Myanmar and sporadic areas in southern Thailand, and the impact on tapping decreased; most areas south of the equator were at a low level, and the impact on tapping decreased [2]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of May 25, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 61.46 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 million tons, an increase of 0.06%. The bonded area inventory was 9.05 million tons, a decrease of 1.74%; the general trade inventory was 52.41 million tons, an increase of 0.38%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 3.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.27 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.08 percentage points [2]. - **Heavy - Truck Sales**: In May 2025, the sales volume of heavy - trucks in China was about 83,000 (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared with April, and a year - on - year increase of about 6% compared with 78,200 in the same period last year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales volume of heavy - trucks in China was about 435,500, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [2].

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber production areas are gradually starting to tap rubber. In Yunnan, raw material supply is tight due to weather interference; in Hainan, raw material output is slow to increase due to rainy weather. The decline in spot and futures prices has reduced the enthusiasm of local concentrated latex processing plants to purchase raw materials at high prices, leading to a slight decline in the purchase price of rubber latex. Last week, inventories in Qingdao ports decreased. Overseas arrivals continued to decline, causing a continuous drop in the total inbound volume of Qingdao spot. Tire companies' procurement sentiment improved, driving the total outbound volume to exceed the inbound volume. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies decreased last week, and some companies have short - term maintenance plans, so there is still a possibility of a further decline in the short term. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,000, and the nr2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,750 - 12,350 [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 13,655 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was - 835 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,020 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 6 - 7 spread was 210 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 1,635 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The positions of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 5,828 hands to 177,460 hands; the positions of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 4,624 hands to 43,672 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber decreased by 4,014 to - 21,318; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber increased by 535 to - 1,670. Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 5,190 tons to 193,300 tons; 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 18,851 tons, up 1,109 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market was 13,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,670 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13,500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13,420 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,600 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 255 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 50 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,038 yuan/ton, down 176 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 18 yuan/ton, down 386 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) was 63.87 Thai baht/kg, down 4.06 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 64.82 Thai baht/kg, down 1.18 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 56.5 Thai baht/kg, down 4.75 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 49.5 Thai baht/kg, down 0.45 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 208 US dollars/ton, down 66 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 3 US dollars/ton, up 109 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 186,800 tons, down 29,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 248,700 tons, down 32,900 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.8%, down 0.16 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.25%, up 0.03 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 41.96 days, down 0.9 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 46.22 days, down 0.78 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.08 million pieces, down 610,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.39 million pieces, down 4.27 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 26.93%, down 0.26 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 31.26%, up 0.28 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 25.31%, up 0.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 25.31%, up 0.2 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From June 2nd to June 8th, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in Myanmar and sporadic areas in southern Thailand, with less impact on rubber tapping; in the southern hemisphere, rainfall was at a low level, also having less impact on rubber tapping. As of May 25, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,600 tons, a slight increase of 0.06% from the previous period. Bonded area inventory decreased by 1.74% to 90,500 tons; general trade inventory increased by 0.38% to 524,100 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 3.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.27 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.08 percentage points. In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale basis), down 5% from April and up about 6% from the same period last year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 435,500 vehicles, a slight increase of about 1% year - on - year [2].

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-06-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 13450 -810 | 45 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -15 20号胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) | 11810 15 | -55 -25 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 1640 | 100 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 183288 | -1139 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 48296 | -1810 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -17304 | 5595 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -2205 | 645 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 198490 | -230 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 17742 13350 | 101 -150 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 14950 | -100 | | ...

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-05-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15235 | 240 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13035 | 180 | | | 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -850 | -30 20号胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) | 40 | 0 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2200 | 60 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 149954 | 1634 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 39337 | -3561 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -20448 | -753 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -6637 | -1370 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 200460 | -40 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 75398 15200 | -3428 300 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 1625 ...

有望逐步回升。ru2509合约短线建议在14500-15300区间交易，nr2506合约短线建议在12350-13000区间 交易。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14815 | 260 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12555 | 270 | | | 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -740 | 5 20号胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) | 65 | 20 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | ...