Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core View - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the off - season, while the southern part of Thailand is in the peak production period. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation. The overall inventory accumulation rate has little change compared to the previous period. Overseas shipments arriving at the port are mainly African rubber. The downstream enterprises' sentiment of stocking up at low prices has improved, and the total outbound volume has increased compared to the previous period. The inventory accumulation rate of general trade has narrowed. In the short term, some tire enterprises are expected to continue to stock up at low prices, and the outbound volume is expected to increase slightly. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased significantly compared to the previous week. In the short term, the operating rate of some semi - steel tire enterprises will remain high supported by foreign trade orders, and the overall device production schedule is expected to remain stable. The all - steel tire enterprises still have the phenomenon of controlling production to control inventory. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,000, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,550 - 13,250 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,850 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,735 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 55 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,115 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 183,011 lots, up 1,899 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 60,827 lots, down 1,231 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 48,754 lots, down 1,397 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 7,599 lots, up 204 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 109,870 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 55,339 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,600 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,890 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,885 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 250 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 945 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,163 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 428 yuan/ton, down 118 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of smoked sheets is 59.49 Thai baht/kg, down 0.1 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of rubber sheets is 56.4 Thai baht/kg, down 0.52 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of glue is 57.2 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of cup lump is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 12 US dollars/ton, down 12 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, up 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, up 45,800 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.52%, up 7.5 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.39%, up 8.5 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 46.1 days, up 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 47.92 days, up 0.56 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.3%, up 0.18 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14.13%, up 0.08 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.57%, up 0.89 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.58%, up 0.91 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025, and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons, an increase of 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse increased by 0.85 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.05 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.72 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.55 percentage points. As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the off - season, while the Thai producing areas are still in the peak production period. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate. The inventory in bonded and general trade warehouses has both increased, with the total accumulation amplitude showing little change compared to the previous period. Overseas shipments arriving at the port are mainly African rubber. The total quantity continues to increase, and the bonded warehouse continues to accumulate inventory. The downstream enterprises' sentiment of stocking up at low prices has improved, and the total outbound volume has increased month - on - month. The inventory accumulation amplitude of general trade has narrowed. In the short term, some tire enterprises will stock up at low prices, and the outbound volume is expected to increase slightly. - In terms of demand, last week, as the production scheduling of maintenance enterprises gradually stabilized, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly month - on - month. In the short term, supported by foreign trade orders, the operating rate of some semi - steel tire enterprises will remain at a high level, and the overall production scheduling is expected to remain basically stable. There is still a phenomenon of production control in all - steel tire enterprises to control inventory. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,700 - 16,400 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,250 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 15,745 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 12,655 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 40 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 30 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,090 yuan/ton, unchanged. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 186,443 lots, down 4,496 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 65,825 lots, down 1,827 lots. The net position of the top 20 of Shanghai rubber was - 47,777 lots, up 3,783 lots; the net position of the top 20 of 20 - number rubber was - 10,191 lots, up 1,242 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 109,890 tons, up 1,500 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were not clearly presented in the table structure but mentioned as 56,750 tons. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 16,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,905 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,895 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,930 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,880 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 145 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 905 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,280 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 625 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 60.3 Thai baht/kg, down 0.58 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 56.92 Thai baht/kg, up 0.27 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 58 Thai baht/kg, down 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 12 US dollars/ton, down 12 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 168,800 tons, up 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 302,200 tons, up 45,800 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.52%, up 7.5 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.39%, up 8.5 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 46.1 days, up 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 47.92 days, up 0.56 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13,010,000 pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58,310,000 pieces, up 6,630,000 pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.1%, down 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 14.15%, up 0.11 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.82%, down 0.28 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.84%, down 0.26 percentage points. [2] Industry News - In the first week of the future (January 18 - 24, 2026), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared to the previous period. In most areas north of the equator and in some areas of western Malaysia and southern Indonesia, the rainfall was at a relatively low level, and the impact on rubber tapping work increased slightly. In areas south of the equator, the impact on rubber tapping work in most non - red areas decreased. - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared to November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared to 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. - As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons, an increase of 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse increased by 0.85 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.05 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.72 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.55 percentage points. - As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points. [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 市场情绪扰动，橡胶宽幅波动 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-19 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 天然橡胶:市场情绪扰动，橡胶宽幅波动 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | （1）国内产区：目前国内产区停割，暂无原料分析。（2）泰国产区：。泰国整体降雨扰动减少，进入季节性割胶高产期。近期部分泰国工厂有烟片补库 需 求，胶水出现分流，采购价格持续上涨。欧盟需求改善，工厂订单好转，带动杯胶价格上涨。（3）越南产区：本周越南产区天气气温呈现小幅回升态势， | | | | 但原料干含延续季节性下滑，叠加月底中北部地区停割 临近，整体原料产出呈季节性减产，部分工厂为停割提前备货，推动原料价格整体走高。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | （1）截至上周中国全钢 轮胎样本企业产能利用率为6 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the fundamentals of the natural rubber market were mixed, with commodity sentiment driving the rubber price to rise and then回调. The offer center of the imported rubber market moved up, but the factory procurement sentiment was average. The futures market maintained a relatively strong oscillation pattern, and the domestic spot price slightly followed the rise of the futures market. The downstream procurement willingness was relatively weak, mainly for appropriate rigid - demand replenishment, and the overall market trading atmosphere was average with light actual transactions [7]. - The domestic natural rubber main production areas are in the off - season, while the Thai production area is still in the peak production season. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation. The overall inventory accumulation rate has narrowed month - on - month, but the inventory accumulation intensity remains high. The arrival and warehousing at Qingdao Port show a seasonal decline trend, with the overall warehousing volume decreasing month - on - month, and the downstream rigid demand has improved, increasing the overall outbound volume [7]. - In terms of demand, this week, as the production arrangements of maintenance enterprises gradually stabilized, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly month - on - month. In the short term, supported by foreign trade orders, the operating rate of some semi - steel tire enterprises will remain high, and the overall production arrangement is expected to remain basically stable; full - steel tire enterprises still have production control phenomena to control inventory [7]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,700 - 16,400 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,700 - 13,250 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market fundamentals were mixed, and the rubber price rose and then回调. The offer center of imported rubber moved up, and the futures market was relatively strong. The domestic spot price slightly followed the rise, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand, with light transactions [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic production areas are in the off - season, and Thailand is in the peak season. Qingdao Port inventory is accumulating, but the arrival and warehousing are decreasing seasonally. The downstream rigid demand has improved, and the tire enterprise operating rate has increased [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,700 - 16,400, and the nr2603 contract between 12,700 - 13,250 [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.22%; the main contract price of No. 20 rubber oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.58% [12]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific data analysis content provided, only mentioned the position changes of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber and No. 20 rubber [13][15]. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of January 16, the spread between Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 was 30, and the spread between No. 20 rubber 2 - 3 was - 35 [20]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 15, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 105,590 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from last week; No. 20 rubber warehouse receipts were 57,758 tons, an increase of 806 tons from last week [26]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of January 15, the state - owned whole latex was reported at 15,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [29]. - **No. 20 Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of January 15, the No. 20 rubber basis was 535 yuan/ton, an increase of 149 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 995 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from last week [38]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: As of January 16, the field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 58 (+2) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 52.2 (+0) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 12 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton from last week. The domestic Yunnan and Hainan production areas are in the off - season [41][44]. - **Import**: In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [50]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons, an increase of 3.62%. The bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.97 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.33 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.33 percentage points [54]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Tire Operating Rate**: As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [57]. - **Tire Exports**: In November 2025, China's tire exports were 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November, China's cumulative tire exports were 7.7321 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 237,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.04%; the export volume of truck and bus tires was 418,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.00% and a year - on - year increase of 6.65% [60]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales)**: In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period last year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the off - season, while the Thai producing area is still in the peak production season. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate. The total inventory accumulation rate has narrowed month - on - month, but the inventory accumulation intensity remains high. The inflow of goods at Qingdao Port shows a seasonal reduction trend, with the overall inflow decreasing month - on - month, and the downstream rigid demand improving, increasing the overall outflow. In terms of demand, the operating rates of domestic tire enterprises have increased significantly month - on - month. In the short term, the output of some semi - steel tire enterprises will remain high due to the support of foreign trade orders, and the overall equipment production schedule is expected to remain basically stable. For all - steel tire enterprises, there is still a phenomenon of production control to manage inventory. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15750 - 16400 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12700 - 13250 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 15995 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan; the closing price of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 12850 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan. The Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 spread is 30 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 20 - number rubber 2 - 3 spread is - 10 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3145 yuan/ton, unchanged. The position of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 198380 lots, down 1357 lots; the position of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 69423 lots, down 1250 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 53013 lots, up 2438 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 11091 lots, up 2003 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 105590 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 57758 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15650 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16200 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1935 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1925 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15150 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 345 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the Shanghai rubber main contract is - 1010 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13428 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan; the basis of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 578 yuan/ton, up 273 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 60.65 Thai baht/kg, up 0.65 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 57.05 Thai baht/kg, up 0.7 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 58 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 24 US dollars/ton, up 21 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 16.88 million tons, up 4.27 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 30.22 million tons, up 4.58 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 58.02%, down 1.53 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 65.89%, down 3.46 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 44.62 days, down 2.43 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 47.36 days, up 0.31 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 0.59 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 14.47%, up 0.26 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.75%, up 0.21 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.9%, up 0.62 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.91%, up 0.64 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons, an increase of 3.62%. The bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of Qingdao Port continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the overall inventory accumulation rate increased month-on-month. Before the holiday, rubber prices fluctuated at a high level. Some tire companies had holiday maintenance and closures. Except for a small amount of low - price replenishment, most companies were mainly on the sidelines and cautious in purchasing. The decline in the total outbound volume of Qingdao Port led to a significant increase in the total inventory of Qingdao Port. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production during the cycle, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. Due to the maintenance arrangements of some enterprises for about 3 days and the gradual resumption around the 4th, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,800 - 16,450, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,800 - 13,250 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Rubber was 16,180 yuan/ton, with a change of +10 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai Rubber was 130 yuan/ton, with a change of -20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 13,150 yuan/ton, with a change of -50 yuan/ton; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber was 140 yuan/ton, with a change of -15 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai Rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,030 yuan/ton, with a change of -10 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Rubber increased by 513 lots to 200,122 lots, and the trading volume of the main contract of 20 - number rubber decreased by 1,702 lots to 72,732 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Rubber decreased by 1,895 lots to -50,296 lots, and the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber increased by 1,498 lots to -14,041 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai Rubber increased by 2,500 tons to 103,190 tons, and the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber decreased by 1,007 tons to 56,952 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,750 yuan/ton, with an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,950 yuan/ton, with an increase of 250 yuan/ton. The price of Thai Standard STR20 was 1,915 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 25 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian Standard SMR20 was 1,910 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 25 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,050 yuan/ton, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,700 yuan/ton, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai Rubber was -430 yuan/ton, with a change of -30 yuan/ton; the basis of the non - standard product of the main contract of Shanghai Rubber was -1,000 yuan/ton, with a change of -60 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,368 yuan/ton, with an increase of 130 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 218 yuan/ton, with a change of -10 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of smoked sheets was 59.59 Thai baht/kg, with an increase of 0.52 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of rubber sheets was 55.55 Thai baht/kg, with an increase of 0.06 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of glue was 55 Thai baht/kg, with an increase of 0.3 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of cup rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with an increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was -17.4 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 19.8 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber was 168,800 tons, with an increase of 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 302,200 tons, with an increase of 45,800 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 59.55%, with a decrease of 2.4 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.35%, with a decrease of 2.7 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 47.05 days, with an increase of 3.27 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 47.05 days, with an increase of 0.19 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, with an increase of 0.59 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, with an increase of 6.63 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.95%, with an increase of 0.89 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.78%, with an increase of 0.49 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.46%, with an increase of 1.28 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.46%, with an increase of 1.28 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In December 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold approximately 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025, and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons, an increase of 4.48%. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an increase of 8.16%; the general trade inventory was 460,300 tons, an increase of 3%. As of January 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 57.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.76 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.37 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic Yunnan rubber - producing area is in the non - tapping period, and the Hainan area is almost at the end of the tapping season. It is expected to fully enter the non - tapping period next week. The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the overall inventory accumulation rate increasing month - on - month. - Before the holiday, rubber prices fluctuate at a high level. Some tire enterprises have maintenance and holidays. Except for a small amount of replenishment at low prices, most are in a wait - and - see state, and procurement is cautious. The decline in the total outbound volume at Qingdao Port leads to a significant increase in the total inventory. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some continued to control production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. Due to some enterprises having about 3 days of maintenance arrangements and gradually resuming around the 4th, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,800 - 16,450 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,800 - 13,250 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 16,050 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 260 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 30 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton. - The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,010 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 35 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,040 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 55 yuan/ton. - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 199,609 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 17,689 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 74,434 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 3,853 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 45,601 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,974 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 15,481 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,297 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 100,690 tons, with no month - on - month change; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 57,959 tons, with no month - on - month change. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,650 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan/ton. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,890 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,885 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 US dollars/ton. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,850 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 11,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 400 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 160 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 940 yuan/ton. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,238 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 129 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 228 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 76 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 59.07 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.92 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 55.55 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.06 Thai baht/kg. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.7 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.5 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 17.4 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 19.8 US dollars/ton. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 45,800 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 59.55%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.4 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 69.35%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.7 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 47.05 days, with a month - on - month increase of 3.27 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 47.05 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.19 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 6.63 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.06%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.3%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.18%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.18%, with no month - on - month change. [2] Industry News - In December 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025, and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. - As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 548,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons, an increase of 4.48%. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an increase of 8.16%; the general trade inventory was 460,300 tons, an increase of 3.8%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 5.21 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.70 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.49 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.34 percentage points. - As of January 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 57.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.76 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.37 percentage points. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the overall inventory accumulation amplitude expanding month - on - month. Before the holiday, rubber prices fluctuate at a high level. Some tire enterprises are on holiday for maintenance, and most are in a wait - and - see mode, purchasing cautiously, leading to a significant inventory accumulation at Qingdao Port due to the decline in total outbound volume. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week, and it may rise slightly this week. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,400 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,790 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 185 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,805 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton. The 20 - number rubber 2 - 3 spread is - 40 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,985 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 181,920 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 13,145 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 70,581 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 40,988 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 45,601 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,974 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 15,481 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,297 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 100,690 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 100 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 57,959 tons, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,870 US dollars/ton, with no change; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,865 US dollars/ton, with no change. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,700 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,650 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,500 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 490 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1,090 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,152 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 1,895 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 58.15 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.35 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheets) is 55.49 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1 Thai baht/kg. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.2 Thai baht/kg, with no change; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 17.4 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 19.8 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 45,800 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly start - up rate of all - steel tires is 59.55%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.4 percentage points; the weekly start - up rate of semi - steel tires is 69.35%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.7 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 47.05 days, with a month - on - month increase of 3.27 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 47.05 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.19 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 0.59 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 6.63 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.06%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.3%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.17%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.63 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.18%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.66 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 548,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons, an increase of 4.48%. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an increase of 8.16%; the general trade inventory was 460,300 tons, an increase of 3.8%. As of January 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 57.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.76 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.37 percentage points [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of the natural rubber market declined. The import rubber market was mainly for traders to swap positions, with strong restocking sentiment in January, while factories mainly adopted a wait - and - see approach. The downstream demand for domestic natural rubber showed no obvious improvement, and most of them were cautious and only made rigid purchases, resulting in weak actual order transactions. In the future, the Yunnan production area in China is in the non - tapping period. In the Hainan production area, some rubber forests in the western and southern regions are still in normal tapping, but the dry content of fresh latex is at a low level, and the amount of collectible rubber on the island is limited. Driven by the recovery of production profits, some processing plants have a sentiment of competing for rubber at higher prices. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded warehouses and general trade warehouses showing inventory increases, and the total inventory increase rate has narrowed month - on - month. There is an expectation of a decrease in overseas ship arrivals, but the rubber price has risen more than expected, and downstream buyers are mainly in a wait - and - see state for restocking, with weak purchasing sentiment, so the inventory continues to accumulate. In terms of demand, domestic tire enterprises adjusted their production schedules flexibly last week, and some enterprises controlled production. The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly month - on - month, while that of all - steel tire enterprises decreased. Entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises was slow, the finished product inventory increased, and under the pressure of production and sales, some enterprises had production suspension or limitation phenomena [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the natural rubber market declined this week. Import rubber traders mainly swapped positions, with strong restocking sentiment in January, while factories mainly waited and watched. The downstream demand for domestic natural rubber did not improve significantly, and most of them made rigid purchases cautiously, with weak actual order transactions [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Yunnan is in the non - tapping period, and in Hainan, the dry content of fresh latex is low, and the collectible rubber amount is limited. Some processing plants are competing for rubber at higher prices due to profit recovery. Qingdao Port's inventory continues to accumulate, but the increase rate has narrowed. There is an expectation of a decrease in overseas ship arrivals, but downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. Tire enterprises' operating rates are mixed, and the overall shipment is slow, with increasing finished product inventory [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15400 - 16000 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12400 - 13000 in the short term [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.11%. The main contract price of No. 20 rubber also fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.02% [11]. - **Position Analysis**: Not elaborated in detail in the summary part, only the position changes of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber and No. 20 rubber are mentioned [13][15]. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of December 31, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was 60, and the spread between the February and March contracts of No. 20 rubber was - 30 [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 31, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 100,590 tons, an increase of 6,660 tons compared with last week; the warehouse receipts of No. 20 rubber were 57,959 tons, a decrease of 1 ton compared with last week [26]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of December 30, the price of state - owned whole latex was 15,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with last week [28]. - **No. 20 Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis**: As of December 30, the basis of No. 20 rubber was 38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan/ton compared with last week; the non - standard basis was - 970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared with last week [35]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream Situation - **Thailand's Raw Material Prices and Processing Profits**: As of December 30, the price of field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 54.2 (+0) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 51.1 (+0.1) Thai baht/kg. As of December 26, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 17.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 19.8 US dollars/ton compared with last week [38]. - **Domestic Production Area Raw Material Prices**: As of December 30, the price of fresh latex in Hainan was 13,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the Yunnan production area was in the non - tapping period [41]. 3.3.2 Import Situation - In November 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and composite rubber) imports were 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [44]. 3.3.3 Qingdao Inventory - As of December 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 524,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,600 tons, an increase of 1.87%. The bonded area inventory was 81,400 tons, an increase of 2.25%; the general trade inventory was 443,400 tons, an increase of 1.80%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of Qingdao natural rubber decreased by 0.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.08 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.08 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.38 percentage points [48]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - **Tire Operating Rate**: As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points [51]. - **Tire Exports**: In November 2025, China's tire exports were 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40 and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November, China's cumulative tire exports were 7.7321 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 237,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.04%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 2.9637 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.67%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 418,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.00% and a year - on - year increase of 6.65%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 4.445 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.64% [54]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Truck Sales)**: In November 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - duty truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of natural rubber is "oscillating" [4] Core Viewpoints - Market risk preference has rebounded, leading to a strong rebound in rubber prices. Despite a generally weak fundamental situation, positive sentiment in the commodity market and increased risk - taking by funds have contributed to this upward movement [9] - Currently, raw material prices provide strong support, mid - stream inventories are increasing, short - term downstream demand may weaken, the futures - spot price difference has re - expanded to the same level as the same period, and short - term sentiment in the commodity market is positive. Therefore, rubber is expected to maintain a strong oscillating performance [4] Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bullish. In China, Yunnan has stopped tapping, and Hainan is mostly in a state of reduced tapping. In Thailand, the overall weather is normal, and the supply in the southern region is increasing. In Vietnam, the supply is stable, and raw material prices are firm [3] - **Demand**: It is bearish. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises decreased, while that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased slightly. Next week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises may still decline [3] - **Inventory**: It is bearish. As of December 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory increased, and as of December 26, the RU warehouse receipt inventory on the SHFE increased, while the 20 - rubber warehouse receipt inventory decreased [3] - **Basis/Spread**: It is neutral. The RU - mixed spread and the RU - NR spread have both widened [3] - **Profit**: It is neutral. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber has narrowed, while that of domestic concentrated latex in Hainan has expanded [3] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The current absolute price is at a moderately high level, and the overall valuation is at a medium level [3] - **Weather etc.**: It is bullish. Recently, the overall performance of commodities has been positive, and the market's bullish sentiment has increased. Next week, rainfall in southern Thailand is expected to increase, which may disrupt supply in the short term [3] - **Investment View**: Rubber is expected to oscillate. The trading strategy is to "buy on dips" for single - side trading and "go long on NR and short on RU" for arbitrage [4][5] 2. Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: This week, rubber rebounded strongly. As of December 26, the RU main contract closed at 15,780 yuan/ton, up 590 yuan/ton (+3.88%) for the week, and the 20 - rubber main contract closed at 12,755 yuan/ton, up 395 yuan/ton (+3.20%) for the week [9] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices rebounded and rose [12] - **Positions on the Disk**: Both RU and NR positions increased [26] - **Spreads on the Disk**: The RU - NR spread widened, and the RU2601 - RU2605 spread narrowed [33] 3. Rubber Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **产区Weather**: The weather in the Thai production area is normal [40] - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Glue prices declined, while cup - lump prices remained stable [50] - **Main Producing Countries' Output**: In November, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 1,026 million tons (-0.24%) [62] - **Main Producing Countries' Exports**: In the first 11 months, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 8.84 million tons (+0.73%) [75] - **China's Imports**: From January to November, China imported 5.8716 million tons of natural rubber (+16.98%). In November, the import volume increased significantly [85][92][99] - **Mid - stream Inventory**: China's social inventory continued to increase. As of December 21, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber was 1.182 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons or 2.5% from the previous period [101][109] - **Downstream Tire Demand**: The operating rate of full - steel tires declined, while that of semi - steel tires rebounded. Next week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises may still decline [110][116] - **Downstream Tire Inventory**: The available inventory days of tires in Shandong decreased [117] - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In November, the growth rate of automobile sales narrowed, while the sales of heavy trucks increased significantly year - on - year [121][131] - **Tire Exports**: From January to November, tire exports were 8.83 million tons (+3.7%), and the cumulative growth rate narrowed [132][139] - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber and latex both rebounded [141] - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: The futures - spot price difference of the mixed rubber widened [152]