1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the precious metals market, although central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center of precious metals in the long - term, short - term macro uncertainties about December interest rate cuts may lead to continued volatile adjustments. It is recommended to pay attention to the retracement of the 60 - day moving average [3]. - In the copper market, concerns about non - farm data affecting interest rate cuts have led to capital reduction and price drops. Inventory increases and narrowing premiums reflect fundamental pressures, with limited short - term repair space [17]. - In the aluminum market, Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a long - term oscillatory upward trend, but short - term weak fundamentals and a lower probability of December interest rate cuts may lead to profit - taking by previous funds, resulting in subsequent oscillatory consolidation. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the expiration of a large number of warehouse receipts will exacerbate the imbalance between supply and demand [36]. - In the zinc market, the cooling of interest rate cut expectations and a significant drop in November TC due to intense competition for ore in the smelting sector have increased the willingness of smelters to reduce or halt production in November. There is a possibility of inventory reduction, and there are significant differences between bulls and bears [59]. - In the nickel and stainless - steel market, nickel - iron prices have been declining due to weak downstream demand. The downside space for nickel and stainless - steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless - steel spot sales face pressure, and downstream demand remains weak [75]. - In the tin market, due to limited resumption of production in Wabang, refined tin concentrate imports have sharply decreased, and supply is weaker than demand. Shanghai tin is expected to maintain high - level oscillations, with support around 276,000 yuan [88]. - In the lithium carbonate market, strong demand from the new energy vehicle and energy storage sectors, combined with a slowdown in supply growth, may lead to a short - term strong and oscillatory trend in lithium prices, but position fluctuations should be watched out for [104]. - In the silicon industry chain, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is generally weak, with wide - range oscillations. The polysilicon industry chain is experiencing production cuts and inventory accumulation, with a weak fundamental outlook and wide - range, weak oscillations [116]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Outlook**: In the short term, due to unclear prospects of December interest rate cuts, precious metals may continue to oscillate and adjust. In the long term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up prices [3]. - **Price Charts**: Include SHFE gold and silver futures main - continuous prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences, gold and US Treasury real interest rates, gold long - term fund holdings, and SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories [4][12][16]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Market concerns about non - farm data and inventory increases have led to price drops, with limited short - term repair space [17]. - **Price Data**: Spot prices from various sources (Shanghai Non - ferrous, Shanghai Wumaoyi, etc.) have small daily increases. Futures prices of Shanghai copper and London copper show different trends, with Shanghai copper rising and London copper falling [22][23]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventories show different changes, with some warehouse receipts decreasing and LME copper inventories increasing [32][34]. Aluminum - **Price Outlook**: Shanghai aluminum may oscillate and consolidate in the short term, while alumina is in an oversupply situation [36]. - **Price Data**: Aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices show different trends, with some rising and some falling [38][45]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum inventories show different changes, and alumina warehouse receipts increase slightly [53]. Zinc - **Price Outlook**: Cooling interest rate cut expectations and a drop in November TC have increased the willingness of smelters to cut production. There is a possibility of inventory reduction, and there are significant differences between bulls and bears [59]. - **Price Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc prices show different trends, with Shanghai zinc rising and LME zinc falling slightly [60]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts decrease, and LME zinc inventories increase [72]. Nickel and Stainless - Steel - **Price Outlook**: Nickel - iron prices decline due to weak downstream demand, and the downside space for nickel and stainless - steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless - steel spot sales face pressure [75]. - **Price Data**: Nickel and stainless - steel futures prices show different trends, with some rising and some falling [76]. - **Inventory Data**: Nickel warehouse receipts decrease [76]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Due to limited resumption of production in Wabang, refined tin concentrate imports have sharply decreased, and supply is weaker than demand. Shanghai tin is expected to maintain high - level oscillations [88]. - **Price Data**: Shanghai tin and London tin futures prices show different trends, with Shanghai tin rising and London tin falling slightly [89]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decrease, and LME tin inventories remain unchanged [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Outlook**: Strong demand and slow supply growth may lead to a short - term strong and oscillatory trend in lithium prices, but position fluctuations should be watched out for [104]. - **Price Data**: Lithium carbonate futures and spot prices show an upward trend [105][109]. - **Inventory Data**: Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increase slightly, and social and downstream inventories decrease [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is generally weak, with wide - range oscillations. The polysilicon industry chain is experiencing production cuts and inventory accumulation, with a weak fundamental outlook [116]. - **Price Data**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon - related product prices show different trends, with some remaining stable and some changing slightly [116]. - **Inventory Data**: Industrial silicon social inventory and polysilicon total inventory show different trends [134][143].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a strong upward trend, influenced by the performance of related ETFs and expectations regarding central bank gold purchases, despite short-term pressure from adjusted interest rate expectations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the close of the Asian market, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.6%, reaching $4,093 per ounce [1] - Gold-related ETFs showed strong gains, with Huaxia ETF (518850) up by 1.78%, non-ferrous metals ETF (516650) up by 1.86%, and gold stock ETF (159562) up by 4.13% [1] Group 2: Central Bank Activity - Goldman Sachs reported that global central bank gold purchases are ongoing, with an expected average monthly purchase of 80 tons from Q4 2025 to 2026 [1] - The increase in central bank gold purchases, along with the largest monthly inflow into Western gold ETFs since mid-2022 (112 tons), indicates strong demand from both central banks and retail investors [1] Group 3: Future Price Expectations - Goldman Sachs maintains an optimistic outlook for gold prices, projecting a rise to $4,900 by the end of 2026 [1] - Analysts from Baocheng Futures noted that the downward revision of interest rate expectations is largely due to previous market optimism, suggesting a potential return to data-driven analysis [1] Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data for September, as well as subsequent economic data, which will directly impact expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies and the short-term trends in precious metals [1]

Group 1: Market Performance - Gold stocks continue to strengthen, with Zhongjin Gold hitting the daily limit, and companies like Xiaocheng Technology, Chifeng Gold, and Shandong Gold rising over 5%, driving gold stock ETFs up over 4% [1] - The Gold Stock ETF has increased by 83.07% year-to-date, with an estimated scale of 13.184 billion [2] Group 2: Central Bank Activity - Global central banks have net purchased over 1,000 tons of gold for three consecutive years from 2022 to 2024, with net purchases of 1,080 tons, 1,050.8 tons, and 1,089.4 tons, exceeding 20% of global gold demand each year [3] - Goldman Sachs indicates that central banks may have purchased a significant amount of gold in November, driven by a trend to diversify reserves against geopolitical and financial risks [3] Group 3: Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs projects that gold prices could reach $4,900 by the end of 2026, with a 55% increase in gold prices year-to-date, influenced by economic and geopolitical concerns [3] - Zhongjin's outlook suggests that the current gold bull market may not be over, with potential for gold prices to exceed $5,000 per ounce next year if current trends continue [4] - Despite the bullish outlook, gold is considered a relatively expensive asset, suggesting a strategy of maintaining an overweight position while focusing on long-term asset allocation [4]

Core Viewpoint - Central banks' continuous gold purchases are driven by the ongoing trend of de-dollarization, which is expected to support long-term gold price increases [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Central Bank Gold Purchases - According to Cathay Securities, global central banks have net purchased over 1,000 tons of gold for three consecutive years from 2022 to 2024, with net purchases of 1,080 tons, 1,050.8 tons, and 1,089.4 tons respectively, each exceeding 20% of the total global gold demand for those years [1] Long-term Gold Price Outlook - The expectation is that central banks will continue to purchase gold in the context of de-dollarization, which is likely to support the long-term upward trend of gold prices [1] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to consider participating in gold investments during subsequent price corrections, with a focus on direct investment in physical gold and tax-exempt gold ETF (518800), as well as gold stock ETFs covering the entire gold industry chain (517400) [1]

转自：新华财经 •宝城期货：市场降息预期下降 贵金属短期下挫 •金瑞期货：金银价格的长期核心驱动因素仍保持稳健 国投期货表示，美国官方数据缺失阶段，ADP发布最新数据显示截至11月1日的四周内，美国企业平均 每周减少约2500个就业岗位。近期美联储多位官员发言偏鹰压制降息预期，市场继续权衡经济和货币政 策前景。贵金属高位震荡，耐心等待新驱动以及技术面的方向性指引。 澳新银行表示，市场对美联储12月再次降息的预期已从9月决议后的近100%高位骤降至42%，这抑制了 投资者对黄金的投资兴趣。不过，地缘政治不确定性、对美国债务可持续性的担忧、去美元化趋势以及 央行购金等结构性利好因素，预计将在中长期继续支撑黄金投资需求。 FXStreet高级分析师Dhwani Mehta表示，受美联储鸽派预期减弱的影响，黄金价格承压。美元也受到美 联储官员近期一系列鹰派言论的支撑。目前交易员热切期待即将公布的关键性9月非农就业报告。展望 未来，由于美元可能在美国经济数据公布前保持坚挺，黄金仍面临下行风险。美联储官员的讲话也将受 到密切关注，以从中寻找美联储政策走向的新信号。技术方面，黄金日线图显示，21日简单移动平均线 （SMA） ...

随着近日市场调整对美联储降息的预期，美债收益率上升，美元上涨，黄金价格也随着承压回落。不 过，高盛认为，支撑黄金的因素直至明年都将继续提供支撑，使得此次回调相对短暂，尤其是考虑到各 国央行仍是大买家。 美东时间周一，高盛在分享给客户的研究报告中写道： "上周黄金价格大幅上涨，上周一亚洲交易时段内一度以垂直走势上涨约25美元，随后上涨近6%，但在 上周五金价出现回调，跌落至约4100美元。上周一价格的上涨时间、幅度和速度与亚洲央行的买入行为 相符。" 高盛分析师表示，他观察到全球央行的黄金购买量仍在持续增加，并将持续强劲态势直至明年。 分析师们写道： "我们的现状预测显示，今年9月份全球央行的黄金购买量为64吨（8月份为21吨），11月央行的购买量 可能仍在持续。我们仍认为，央行的黄金储备持续增加是一个多年来的趋势，因为各国央行正在多元化 储备以规避地缘政治和金融风险。" 高盛银行预计，从2025年第四季度到2026年，各国央行每月平均将购买80吨黄金。 该银行估计，卡塔尔在9月份购买了20吨黄金，阿曼购买了7吨，中国购买了15吨。 总体而言，各国央行的购金速度使得高盛坚持其预测，即到2026年底，黄金价格将涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For precious metals, although central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center in the long - term, the unclear prospect of interest rate cuts in December and short - term technical weakness suggest a possible short - term adjustment. Attention should be paid to the retracement of the 200 - day moving average [3]. - For copper, as the delivery date approaches, the registered warrant volume has rapidly increased. The spot price of electrolytic copper has declined, the premium has strengthened, and the purchasing sentiment has increased but not significantly. The futures price has shown narrow - range fluctuations and lacks driving forces [15]. - For aluminum, the expected tightening of overseas electrolytic aluminum supply has given rise to a bullish sentiment among funds, leading to an influx of capital into Shanghai aluminum futures and an increase in prices. However, downstream demand may not support such high prices, so Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Alumina has seen price - increasing orders due to environmental production restrictions and short - covering, but it still follows an oversupply logic. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up characteristics with Shanghai aluminum and has strong downside support [33][34]. - For zinc, the expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled down, and the smelting sector's willingness to reduce or halt production in November has increased due to intense competition for ores and a significant decline in TC. The impact needs to be observed through inventory changes in November. There is a possibility of inventory reduction if demand remains stable. Currently, there are significant differences between bulls and bears, and the bottom space can be observed at the end of the month [57]. - For nickel, the expectation of interest rate cuts in December is uncertain, and the progress of Sino - US tariffs has affected risk preferences. Nickel ore prices may remain strong in the short term due to the approaching rainy season in the Philippines and the impact of typhoons on production and shipping. The prices of nickel - iron and stainless steel have declined due to weak downstream demand, and both are experiencing inventory accumulation [73]. - For tin, although there has been some resumption of production in Yunnan, the supply is still weaker than demand due to the under - expected resumption of production in Wa State and a sharp reduction in concentrate imports. Shanghai tin is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with support predicted around 276,000 yuan [88]. - For lithium carbonate, the price has far exceeded expectations, and downstream buyers have no intention to replenish inventory. There is an expectation of a decline in production in December. Technically, the price has broken through the 90,000 - yuan mark and reached 95,000 yuan, posing a high risk for chasing the price. There is an over - rising sentiment, and the risk of chasing the price should be vigilant [104]. - For the silicon industry chain, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is generally weak, and it is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The polysilicon industry chain is experiencing production cuts and inventory accumulation, with a weak fundamental outlook and wide - range weak fluctuations [115]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Outlook**: Short - term adjustment possible, long - term upward trend supported by central bank purchases and investment demand [3]. - **Market Data**: Included price trends of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, their ratios, and relationships with the US dollar index, US Treasury real interest rates, and long - term fund holdings [4][8][11]. Copper - **Spot Market**: Spot prices of copper have declined, with different degrees of decline in various regions. The premium has also decreased [18]. - **Futures Market**: Futures prices have declined, and the trading volume and open interest have shown certain trends. The registered warrant volume has increased significantly [16][19][29]. - **Import and Processing**: Copper import losses have increased, and the TC of copper concentrates has remained unchanged [24]. - **Scrap - to - Refined Spread**: The scrap - to - refined spread has decreased, indicating a reduced price advantage of scrap copper [28]. Aluminum - **Futures Prices**: The prices of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures have declined to varying degrees [35]. - **Price Spreads**: There are differences in price spreads between different contracts of aluminum and alumina, as well as between aluminum and alumina [38][40]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices of aluminum in different regions have declined, and the basis has also changed [44]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum has changed, and the alumina warehouse receipt inventory has remained stable [51]. Zinc - **Futures Prices**: The prices of Shanghai zinc futures have generally declined, except for the second - consecutive contract which has increased slightly [58]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices of zinc have declined, and the premium has changed significantly [66]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc has increased [70]. Nickel - **Futures Market**: The prices of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel have declined, and the trading volume has increased while the open interest has decreased. The warehouse receipt volume has increased [74]. - **Downstream Market**: The prices of nickel - iron and stainless steel have declined, and the downstream demand is weak. Both are experiencing inventory accumulation [73]. Tin - **Futures Market**: The prices of Shanghai tin and LME tin have changed slightly, with Shanghai tin showing a slight decline [89]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of tin and tin concentrates have declined slightly, and the prices of solder products have remained stable [93]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai tin has increased, while the LME tin inventory has decreased [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Prices**: The prices of lithium carbonate futures have generally increased compared to the previous week, but there has been a slight decline on the day [105]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of various lithium - related products have increased, and the price differences between different grades have also changed [109]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the social inventory of lithium carbonate have decreased [113]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot prices of industrial silicon in different regions have changed slightly, and the basis has increased. The futures prices have declined [115]. - **Polysilicon and Downstream Products**: The prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery chips, and components have shown certain trends, and the inventory of polysilicon has increased [123][133].

n The gold price broke higher last week, rising nearly 6% before correcting on Friday to just under $4,100. n Our GS nowcast estimates central bank purchases at 64 tonnes for September (vs. 21 tonnes in August), and central bank buying likely continued in November. We continue to see elevated central bank gold accumulation as a multi-year trend, as central banks diversify their reserves to hedge geopolitical and financial risks. We maintain our assumption of average monthly central bank buying of 80 tonnes ...

周二，受美元走强以及下月美国降息前景黯淡的拖累，黄金价格连续第四个交易日下跌。 截止发稿前，现货黄金下跌0.5%，盘中一度跌破4000美元关口，现快速反弹至4040美元附近。 Marex分析师Edward Meir表示："今天美元略有走强，而且过去一周部分投机性多头头寸有所减少。黄金市场目前将进入盘整阶段。" 美联储副主席杰斐逊周一表示，这家美国央行在进一步降息方面需要"缓慢行事"，这打击了下月降息的预期。 本周市场焦点将集中在美国公布的数据上，包括周四的9月非农就业报告，以寻找有关这个全球最大经济体健康状况的线索。 澳新银行在一份报告中指出："市场对美联储下月再次降息的预期，已从9月决议后近100%的高位，在一夜之间降至42%。这打压了投资者对黄金的兴趣。 然而，地缘政治不确定性、对美国债务可持续性的担忧、去美元化趋势以及央行购金等结构性利好因素，预计将在中长期内支撑投资需求。" 高盛也认为，支撑黄金的催化剂将继续提供支持，并指出这波回调将是短暂的，尤其是考虑到各国央行仍在持续买入。 高盛表示，央行的购金速度已经加快，并将持续到明年。分析师写道："我们的高盛即时预测模型估计，9月份央行购金量为64吨（8月份 ...

上证报中国证券网讯（记者 曾庆怡）11月18日下午，A股黄金主题持续震荡走低。截至14点44分，该主 题跌幅超2%，其中，豫光金铅、白银有色跌超5%，中金岭南、盛屯矿业跌超4%。 消息面上，美联储官员近期表态释放偏"鹰"信号，市场对美联储12月降息的预期显著下行，导致金价震 荡回调。截至北京时间11月18日14点44分，伦敦现货黄金价报4012.50美元/盎司，为连续第四个交易日 下跌；上海黄金交易所现货黄金（Au99.99）价报917.70元/克，日跌幅约1.47%。 招商银行11月17日发布的研报称，黄金短期仍在调整期，趋势上继续看多。一是美联储降息周期预计将 会延续，二是央行购金尚未出现逆转苗头。不过，考虑到当前黄金估值已经处于历史最高，预计2026年 金价很难复刻2025年的极端涨幅，上涨节奏将有所放缓。 ...