回顾2023年，黄金市场就曾上演过类似行情。 当年黄金从年初1822美元/盎司起步，一路震荡上行至年底突破2100美元，全年涨幅超过17%。 推动那轮上涨 的核心逻辑与当前有诸多相似之处：美联储货币政策转向预期、地缘政治冲突不断、央行持续购金。 2023年赚到钱的投资者，多数采用了分批买入、控制 仓位的策略。 2025年的市场表现更加激进，金价在3月突破3000美元/盎司，4月突破3500美元，10月突破4000美元，12月下旬更是站上4500美元关口。 这种 加速上涨让部分分析师开始警惕。 中金公司研究部大类资产配置研究负责人李昭提醒，金价在三年内累计上涨2.4倍，已明显高于模型计算的估值中枢，可 能存在一定泡沫。 黄金市场的狂热也带动了相关投资产品的活跃。 2025年前三季度，中国国内黄金ETF增仓量达到79.015吨，同比增长164.03%。 至9月底，国内黄金ETF持仓 量达193.749吨。 A股市场上，多只黄金概念股在2025年实现翻倍上涨，招金黄金年内涨幅超238%，兴业银锡涨幅超215%。 黄金矿业公司正利用这一轮牛 市积极增储上产。 以紫金矿业为例，其2025年前三季度实现归母净利润378. ...

2025年，白银的涨势甚至比黄金更为迅猛，不仅创下历史新高，还突破了除最狂热的市场观察人士外、此前被认为不可思议的水平。除了提振黄金的因素 外，白银还受益于市场持续担忧美国政府最终可能对精炼金属征收进口关税。 KCM Trade首席市场分析师Tim Waterer表示："贵金属在2026年的走势与2025年大致相同，也就是说，有向前的势头。贵金属似乎正在弥补年底的抛售，本 周早些时候的抛售曾令其苦恼。年底的平仓压力已经缓解，现在基本面再次成为焦点，黄金将以上涨开启2026年。 " 贵金属去年经历了一轮凶猛的上涨行情，尽管12月下旬因部分投资者获利了结且交易指标显示超买状态，市场出现了显著波动。得益于央行购金、美联储宽 松政策以及美元走软，金价在2025年创下了一系列历史新高。此外，地缘政治紧张局势和美国主导的贸易摩擦引发的避险需求也提供了支撑。 2026年交易开局，金银价格双双走高，延续了自1979年以来的最佳年度表现。 金价逼近每盎司4400美元，白银重回74美元上方。尽管交易员们指出，受美国进一步降息和美元走软的提振，贵金属在2026年可能表现不俗，但近期市场担 忧广泛的指数再平衡可能会给价格带来压力。鉴 ...

【金启新程掌乾坤，步步为盈岁岁安】 新岁启幕，万象更新！祝各位财源广进，福寿安康，账户常红！2026年，黄金征途，保持信心，李槿与你结伴同行，稳抓波段，共赴新高！ 回首年末：周一黄金单日重挫，创两月最大跌幅。从最高4549一路回撤来到4307。周二震荡修复，冲高回落延续跌势。周三收官震荡，小幅收跌。国际黄金 高位暴跌后弱修复，主因年末获利了结、保证金上调和流动性不足，中长期支撑趋势未变。 展望全年：今年全年大概率高位震荡、温和上行，核心看美联储降息、央行购金与地缘风险影响。机构预测目标剑指4900-5100，极端情况下6000可期。美 联储2025年已经降75基点，2026年如果再降2次，压低持有成本，利好金价。 今日开盘黄金直接跳空高开，亚盘震荡偏强走势。最近主要开始逢低多，实战趋势布局会陆陆续续开始。今日如果有低点出现或探低确认，谨记：回落不是 风险，而是倒车接人的良机！ 短期走势上先震荡对待，短期趋势多空上方分水关口在4400，站稳这里，黄金会有大的反攻或年度后续还会有新高。机构预测的4900大目标后期年度大概率 也会到，只是时间问题，短期不用关注那么多！ 上周五下探4275触发反弹，今日早盘重点关注4 ...

美联储降息预期支撑犹存，保证金上调+散户抛售或抑制2026年涨势，如今"全民皆知"黄金已开启新一 轮牛市，这一现状反而会加大金价复制去年涨幅的难度。交易所已对此密切关注，意味着黄金交易保证 金或将上调；此外，散户手中还持有大量未被统计的"隐形库存"，一旦他们选择在现货市场抛售，金价 涨势或将陷入停滞。若美联储在2026年实施2-3次降息，黄金市场有望延续上行趋势。但需警惕的是， 若全球经济回暖导致央行购金力度减弱，叠加散户抛售实物黄金带来的供应增加，金价或将面临阶段性 阻力与抛售压力。尽管长期看涨基调未变，但金价在重启涨势前或经历长达数月的震荡盘整。即便如 此，黄金市场仍将录得年度巨额涨幅。全年金价持续走高、不断刷新高点和低点的强劲走势，使其创下 四十余年以来的最佳年度表现。今年金价整体涨幅约达65%，年内大部分时间保持稳步攀升态势，直至 年末加速冲高后，涨势才有所降温。当前市场正进入行情修正阶段，但这并非坏事——推动去年金价上 涨的部分基本面因素，预计将在2026年再度发力。明年，投资者将再次迎来一系列驱动行情的关键因 素：美联储降息的影响、新一轮货币宽松预期、地缘政治风险事件、各国央行的持续购金行为，以及 ...

2025年大宗商品市场呈现历史性分化格局。贵金属引领史诗级牛市，白银涨超140%创有史以来最大年度涨幅，黄金涨超60%，录得1979年以来最 强表现。铜价涨超40%创下自2009年来的最大年度涨幅，年内多次刷新历史高位。因供需格局改善，碳酸锂全年累计涨幅超过50%。能源与农产 品则深陷熊市，原油全年跌超15%，录得2020年以来最大年度跌幅；可可暴跌近乎腰斩。 2025年大宗商品市场呈现分化格局，金银等贵金属走出了史诗级牛市，工业金属强劲反弹，而能源和农产品则陷入多年低谷。 贵金属市场创造了历史性涨势。白银涨超146%创下有史以来最大年度涨幅，黄金上涨超过60%，录得1979年以来最强表现。贵金属的狂飙主要受 美联储降息预期、地缘政治冲突、央行持续购金以及交易所交易基金持仓增加推动。 基本金属市场同样表现强劲。伦铜全年上涨近44%，创2009年以来最大年度涨幅，并在年末触及12960美元的历史高位。 相比之下，能源市场走势略显失意。WTI原油全年均下跌超18%，录得2020年以来最大年度跌幅，非OPEC+国家的产量增长与全球经济增长放缓 的预期，共同加剧了市场对供应持续过剩的担忧，彻底压制了油价。 与此同时， ...

12月31日午后，贵金属板块变绿，黄金、白银、铂金价格纷纷下跌。 现货黄金直线下跌，一度下跌1.50%失守4300美元/盎司，现跌0.16%；现货白银一度跌超7%，现跌 5.02%。 沪银主力合约一度跌超5%，现跌4.27%，报17074元/千克。铂金主力合约一度走低14%，现报527.25元/ 克。 贵金属市场现"蹦极"行情 原因何在？ 2025年底的黄金贵金属市场既激动人心，又令人忐忑不安。尤其是最近一个多月，随着金价在前期震荡 盘整后重拾升势，白银、铂金等其他贵金属品种纷纷"后来居上"，集体狂飙。其中，白银期货价格从每 盎司50美元附近，迅速升至每盎司80美元上方，接连突破60、70和80美元三个整数关口，单月的涨幅创 下多年新高。 截至上周，黄金全年"仅"上涨约70%，白银涨幅则高达约150%，其他贵金属（铂金、钯金）的累计涨 幅均超过100%。白银的疯狂行情尤其令人震惊，金银比一度从2020年的高点120跌落至目前的60附近。 据第一财经报道，在全球宏观基金经理袁玉玮看来，"任何低于这个数字的比值，都代表黄金被低估， 或白银被高估。这里还没有考虑央行屯金的因素干扰。" 2025年最后一周开盘，国际金 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the gold and silver markets showed significant upward trends. The outlook for the precious metals market in 2026 remains optimistic. The continued fiscal expansion of major countries, the expected further decline of the US dollar, and the existence of stagflation risks in the US may further support the investment demand for gold. The industrial and investment demand for silver may also remain strong [2]. Summary by Directory Part I: Review of Precious Metals Market Gold Market Review - **Historical Gold Market Review**: Gold has experienced three major bull markets in the past 60 years. From 1971 - 1980, the price rose from $35/ounce to $850/ounce, a nearly 24 - fold increase. From 1980 - 2000, it was a bear market. From 2001 - 2011, the price soared from $255/ounce to $1920/ounce, a 650% increase. From 2016 - 2025, it entered a new bull market [6]. - **2025 Gold Market Review**: Affected by factors such as the implementation of the US tariff policy, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and geopolitical crises, the London spot gold price rose from $2610.85/ounce at the end of 2024 to over $4500/ounce at the end of 2025, a cumulative increase of over 70%. The SHFE gold futures also showed a similar trend [13]. Silver Market Review - **Historical Silver Market Review**: Over the past 60 years, international silver prices have fluctuated significantly. From 1971 - 1980, it soared from $1.5/ounce to $49.45/ounce. From 1980 - 2000, it plummeted. From 2001 - 2011, it rose from $4/ounce to $49/ounce. From 2021 - 2025, it was driven by multiple factors to break through $80/ounce [18]. - **2025 Silver Market Review**: The London spot silver price rose from $28.91/ounce at the end of 2024 to over $80/ounce at the end of 2025, with a maximum annual increase of over 170%. The SHFE silver also showed a similar upward trend [23]. Part II: Analysis of the Impact of Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors on Precious Metals Prices Impact of the US Economic Situation on Precious Metals Prices - **Impact of the US Interest - Rate Cut Cycle**: The expectation of the US interest - rate cut cycle is one of the underlying logics supporting the sharp rise in precious metals prices. In 2025, the Fed cut interest rates three times, weakening the yields of traditional assets and increasing the attractiveness of gold [31]. - **Impact of the US Economy**: In 2025, the US economy maintained a certain growth rate, but the "Big and Beautiful" tax and expenditure bill worsened the medium - and long - term fiscal prospects, consolidating the bullish trend of gold [33]. - **Impact of the US Dollar Index Trend**: The US dollar index has a negative correlation with precious metals prices. In 2025, the weakening dollar index supported precious metals prices, but in 2026, its support may weaken [49]. Impact of Central Bank Gold Purchases on Precious Metals Prices - In recent years, global central banks have continuously increased their gold reserves. In 2025, central banks' gold - buying pace accelerated in the third quarter. In 2026, the pace of central bank gold allocation may slow down [51]. Impact of Geopolitical Crises on Precious Metals Prices - Geopolitical conflicts such as the Middle East situation, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the Palestine - Israel conflict have increased market uncertainty, leading investors to turn to gold for risk - aversion. They also affect the supply and demand pattern of gold [56]. Part III: Analysis of Precious Metals Supply and Demand Gold Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Analysis**: In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic raw material gold production was 271.782 tons, and imported raw material gold production was 121.149 tons. The global total gold supply in the first three quarters was 3717.4 tons [59]. - **Demand Analysis**: The global total gold demand in the first three quarters of 2025 was 3717.4 tons, showing a slight upward trend. China's gold consumption decreased by 7.95% year - on - year [63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: In 2025, SHFE gold inventory continued to rise, while COMEX gold inventory remained stable after an initial increase and then gradually declined slightly [65]. Silver Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Analysis**: It is expected that the global silver supply in 2025 will increase by 2% year - on - year to 1030.6 million ounces, mainly due to a 2% increase in mined silver [69]. - **Demand Analysis**: It is expected that the global silver demand in 2025 will decrease by 1% year - on - year to 1148.3 million ounces. Industrial demand will decrease slightly, while investment demand will increase by 7% [75]. - **Inventory Analysis**: SHFE, COMEX, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventories all showed significant fluctuations in 2025 [78]. Part IV: Arbitrage and Position Analysis of the Precious Metals Market Gold Market Arbitrage and Position Analysis - **Domestic Gold Spot - Futures Arbitrage Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE gold futures active contracts was mostly negative, with occasional positive values presenting arbitrage opportunities [88]. - **Gold Inter - Period Arbitrage Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE gold futures active contracts and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with occasional large declines presenting arbitrage opportunities [91]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio Analysis**: In 2025, the gold - silver ratio fluctuated sharply, and its future direction is difficult to judge after breaking through the previous range [95]. - **Analysis of SHFE Gold Positions and Capital Inflows**: In 2025, domestic institutional net long positions in SHFE gold futures showed fluctuations, and the inflow of funds increased with the rise in gold prices [97]. Silver Market Arbitrage and Position Analysis - **Silver Basis Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE silver futures active contracts was mostly negative, with large positive spreads appearing at the end of the year [106]. - **Silver Inter - Period Spread Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE silver futures active contracts and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with occasional large fluctuations [108]. - **Analysis of SHFE Silver Positions and Capital Inflows**: In 2025, domestic institutional net long positions in SHFE silver futures showed fluctuations, and the inflow of funds increased significantly with the rise in silver prices [111]. Part V: Analysis and Strategies of Precious Metals Options - The implied volatility of gold and silver options has increased in recent years. The put - call ratio of gold options indicates a bullish market, while that of silver options shows more fluctuations, especially increasing when the silver price rises sharply [121]. - Different options strategies can be considered according to different price and volatility expectations, such as buying at - the - money call options, selling out - of - the - money put options, selling strangles, and buying straddles [122]. Part VI: Seasonal Analysis of Precious Metals - Based on a five - year seasonal analysis, precious metals have a relatively high probability of rising in March, April, and October and a relatively high probability of falling in June [137]. Part VII: Outlook on Factors Affecting Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Technical Analysis - **Prediction of the Fed's Interest - Rate Cut Rhythm in 2026 and Its Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2026, which is beneficial to precious metals prices [146]. - **Orientation of US Government Policies in 2026 and Their Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: The US economy is expected to grow, and the government will maintain a high fiscal deficit rate. The new Fed chairman may be more dovish, which is conducive to the rise of precious metals prices [150]. - **Impact of Gold Supply - Demand Balance on Gold Prices**: In 2025, gold investment demand increased significantly. In 2026, the gold market outlook remains optimistic, and the strategic value of allocating gold is still stable [151]. - **Technical Analysis of Precious Metals Price Trends**: Technically, COMEX gold has strong support at $3500/ounce and $4000/ounce, and COMEX silver may have strong support at $50/ounce and $35/ounce [155]. Part VIII: Outlook on Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Strategy Recommendations - In 2026, the global macro - game pattern remains unchanged. The continuous expansion of fiscal deficits in major economies, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to support precious metals prices. Buying on dips can be considered as a trading strategy [160].

摘要周三（12月31日）亚市盘中，贵金属经历踩踏式抛售后开始收复失地，金银窄幅震荡，现货黄金目 前交投于4370美元/盎司附近，现货白银交投于75.50美元附近。进入2025年末，黄金市场经历了剧烈的 过山车行情。纵观全年，黄金价格已累计上涨66%，有望成为自1979年以来表现最为亮眼的一年。 金瑞期货：从宏观和基本面来看，明年美联储货币政策宽松利率回落的趋势并未发生改变，中长期包括 主权国家赤字问题、地缘风险以及去美元化驱动的央行购金等因素并未改变，白银以及铂的供需矛盾也 持续存在，贵金属价格的长期核心驱动因素仍保持稳健 国投期货：隔夜贵金属转涨。美联储会议纪要显示官员分歧严重，不过大多数与会者认为如果通胀如预 期随时间下降，进一步下调利率可能是适当的。美联储宽松前景以及地缘风险支撑贵金属强势，但资金 推动下涨幅过大，阶段性调整在所难免，短期谨慎参与，波动率下降后维持多头参与思路。 西南期货：当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂，"逆全球化"和"去美元化"大趋势，利好黄金的配置价值和 避险价值。各国央行的购金行为对黄金走势也形成了支撑。但近期贵金属大幅上涨，投机情绪显著升 温。预计市场波动将显著放大，多单可离场后暂 ...

Core Insights - Gold is expected to be the best-performing asset class in 2025, driven by four key factors that will also influence its price movements in 2026 [1] Group 1: Key Drivers of Gold Price - The two main macro drivers for gold's success in 2025 are geopolitical tensions and a generally weak US dollar along with moderate interest rate declines [2] - Central banks continue to be strong and stable net buyers of gold, although their purchasing pace has slowed compared to the past two years [2] - A balanced contribution from four main factors—economic expansion, risk and uncertainty, opportunity cost, and momentum—each accounting for approximately 10% of gold's performance [2] Group 2: Future Expectations and Economic Conditions - If the US economy shows a mild decline, it could lead to Federal Reserve rate cuts and further dollar weakness, potentially supporting gold prices by 5% to 15% [3] - In the event of significant economic deterioration, investment demand for gold could surge, with potential prices exceeding $5,000 per ounce [3] - The risk premium associated with gold may decrease if US economic policies yield positive results, potentially leading to a price drop of 5% to 20% [3] Group 3: Central Bank Demand and Recycling Risks - Strong central bank demand is influenced by macro and policy decisions, with continued buying expected to support gold prices [4] - A decline in central bank demand below 600 to 700 tons could exert pressure on future gold prices [4] - In India, gold jewelry is being used as collateral for loans, and an economic downturn could lead to forced liquidations, increasing supply and suppressing gold prices [5]

【要闻速递】 据CME"美联储观察"，市场对美联储未来降息预期趋于保守：明年1月降息25基点的概率仅14.9%，维 持利率不变概率高达85.1%；到3月累计降息25基点的概率为45.2%，维持不变48.3%，累计降息50基点 仅6.5%。 摘要今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，现货黄金交投于4344美元/盎司附近，金价周二反弹，势将创下自 1979年以来最大年度涨幅，受益于美联储降息预期、持续的地缘政治紧张、各国央行强劲的购金需求， 以及大量资金流入黄金ETF。 今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，现货黄金交投于4344美元/盎司附近，金价周二反弹，势将创下自1979年 以来最大年度涨幅，受益于美联储降息预期、持续的地缘政治紧张、各国央行强劲的购金需求，以及大 量资金流入黄金ETF。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 昨日黄金走势与10月21日高度相似：价格在暴跌后出现技术性修正，晚间于4403一线承压回落。今日金 价徘徊于5-10日均线附近，尾盘最低下探近70美元。 日线图上，大阴之后收出带长上影的小阳孕线，整体仍处于修正下跌格局，与4380前一轮下跌形成对 称，预示后市震荡后仍将进一步下探至下方支撑区域。 多周期压 ...