马上就要2026年了，大家最近有没有留意新闻，房价这话题又被提上日程了。 虽然有人说"房价会稳"，也有人预测"可能会下跌"，但不管哪种声音，最直接影响的还是普通家庭。 大家心里都有个不言自说的担忧：要是这房价明年还得接着往下走，我们普通家庭的所谓"家底"，还能 兜得住吗？ 要是2026年房价接着跌，中国近一半的家庭，可能要撞上这4个绕不开的坎。 房子砸手里卖不掉 现在的二手房市场早就不是 "挂出去就能卖" 的年代了，完全变成了 "卖家多、买家少" 的买方市场。 打开房产 APP，不管是一线城市的老小区，还是三四线的新楼盘，随便哪个小区都挂着几十上百套二 手房，挂牌量蹭蹭往上涨，成交量却趴在地上不动。 买家心里都打着小算盘，知道房价还在跌，谁都想再等等抄底，没人愿意当冤大头现在接盘。 想卖房就得狠下心降价，可就算降了价，也未必有人问津。 很多家庭为了快点出手，一降再降，降个十几万、几十万都是常事，可就算这样，看房的人都寥寥无 几，更别说成交了。 成交周期也越来越长，有的房子挂了大半年，连个靠谱的买家都遇不到，只能一直耗着。 更让人糟心的是持有成本，房子卖不掉，物业费、取暖费照样得按时交，一分都不能少。要是小区物 ...

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of a large number of low-priced resettlement housing in Wenzhou is significantly impacting the real estate market, with prices dropping to around 6,000 to 8,000 yuan per square meter even in mature areas [1][10]. Group 1: Resettlement Housing Prices - Newly built resettlement housing in the Huanglong area is experiencing low transaction prices, with several second-hand houses selling for under 8,000 yuan per square meter [3][7]. - Specific examples of housing prices include units in Xinzeyayuan priced at 7,100 yuan per square meter with total prices around 70,000 yuan [4][8]. - The overall trend shows that these new resettlement houses are becoming increasingly affordable, with some areas seeing prices as low as 6,400 yuan per square meter [4][20]. Group 2: Quality of Resettlement Housing - The quality of these resettlement housing projects is reportedly high, with some developments like Zhiyaju being comparable to commercial housing despite their low prices [5][10]. - The presence of undesirable neighboring structures, such as prisons and cemeteries, is contributing to the lower prices of adjacent residential properties [13][15]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Supply - The significant oversupply of new resettlement housing, with over 240,000 units built in the last five years, is a major factor driving down prices [26][28]. - The market is characterized by a high volume of newly constructed high-rise resettlement housing, particularly in less desirable locations, which is negatively affecting overall property values in the area [22][28]. - There is a call for a halt to the construction of new resettlement housing and a shift towards integrating displaced residents into the commercial housing market to alleviate excess inventory [26][28].

近些年，国内经济虽然呈现"稳中有升"的态势。但普通人也面临着诸多麻烦。比如，工资收入增长缓慢、存款利息收入大幅减少、就业形势严峻，以及房子 市值持续缩水。而面对当前经济和社会形势，有业内人士表示：不出意外，未来两三年，中国有近一半的家庭或将面临这4大"麻烦"。让我们一起来了解一 下： 麻烦一，房子市值会不断缩水 麻烦二，孩子教育压力持续上升 现如今，国内很多家庭都把资产押在房子上面。数据显示，房产占居民家庭总资产的77%，另有23%的资产才是金融资产。此外，国内96%的家庭拥有一套 房子，其中拥有2套及以上房产的家庭达到41.5%。而从2022年开始，国内各地房价就进入到下降的趋势之中，平均跌幅超过30%，未来房价仍有调整的空 间。这就意味着，那些把财富全都押在房子上面的家庭，将面临资产不断缩水的麻烦。 现在无论是大城市，还是小县城，很多家庭在孩子教育方面的压力越来越大。为了把孩子培养成社会精英，很多家庭在精力和财力方面都有巨大的投入。孩 子在上幼儿园时就要报名各种兴趣班，上小学时就要考英语等级，而在上中学时就要报名各种课外辅导班。为此，家长不仅要承担家庭总收入30%以上的培 训费用，而且还要耗费大量时间接送 ...

近几年，房价像坐过山车一样，上下波动让很多人心慌。有人还在观望，有人已经入手，但有一点几乎 可以肯定：如果2026年房价继续下跌，中国近一半的家庭可能会遇到大麻烦。可别以为跌价只是资产缩 水那么简单，里面隐藏的问题可能比你想象的更棘手。 1、房产负担可能加重，按揭压力变得更明显 很多家庭都背着房贷，房贷本身就是一个长期负担。如果房价下跌，手里还有贷款的家庭会感受到明显 的压力。原本打算靠房子升值来抵消贷款压力的想法，可能就落空了。 拿普通家庭举例，买房时首付30%，贷款70%，按揭周期30年。房价下跌了10%-20%，意味着房子的实 际价值低于贷款余额。银行依然按合同收利息，家庭每个月的还款压力不减，但资产缩水已经是既定事 实。 想卖房换地方或者改善居住条件时，就会发现房子卖不出理想价格，甚至亏本，这种心理和经济压力会 累积，影响日常生活。 更糟的是，部分家庭可能已经把资金压在房子上，缺乏灵活现金流。房价下跌导致资产缩水时，日常开 销、教育、医疗等支出就可能被迫压缩，生活质量直接受影响。 2、买房心理受到冲击，家庭财富规划困难 房价下跌不仅是经济问题，更是心理问题。很多家庭把房子当成重要财富储备，甚至是子女未 ...

他那套房其实不错，属于普通家庭能勉强挤一挤可以买到的改善型三房，小区不豪华，但学区扎实，地 段成熟，生活方便。 以前家里人都说这种房抗跌，他自己也觉得是块压舱石。 我一个亲戚，半年前把他唯一的一套自住房卖了。 卖房之前我们一起吃饭，他还信誓旦旦地说，房价怎么跌都跟他无关，他那套是自住，不炒、不换、不 卖，跌成啥样他都不慌。 那时候他的底气特别足，典型的"反正我不卖，我就不亏"。 结果也就前后脚，人直接变了一个样。 一、一套"越住越慌"的房子 可偏偏这两年楼市风向变得太快。房价连着往下掉，朋友圈每天都在晒降价截图，短视频里全是"房价 回到十年前""还不跑就亏大了"。 我这亲戚嘴上不说，心里其实早被这些声音搅得乱七八糟。越刷越慌，越看越觉得这房子再不卖就晚 了。 没过多久，他就成为中介的常客，想着先了解一下行情。中介当然是劝："你这房去年卖还能卖160万， 现在再不卖连100都到不了了。" 几句话就把他心里的那层纸戳破。最后他狠下心，把房子挂出去，一降价、两谈判，成交比挂牌还低一 点。 从死活不卖到赶紧脱手，前后也就一个月的时间。 二、他是怎么被"安全感焦虑"推着卖房的 很多人以为他冲动，其实不是。他属于那种越焦 ...

Core Insights - The Beijing real estate market is showing a clear trend where luxury homes and entry-level properties are performing well, while mid-range improvement housing is struggling to find its footing [1][4][13] - The market is characterized by a "two extremes hot, middle cold" phenomenon, indicating a significant divide in buyer interest and sales performance [4][5][13] Luxury Market - High-end properties are thriving, with unique resources and quality allowing them to maintain a separate market dynamic [6][8] - In November, luxury properties priced above 100,000 yuan per square meter frequently appeared on sales charts, with notable sales such as Jianfa Haiyan in Haidian district achieving a price of 137,036 yuan per square meter and generating over 600 million yuan in sales [7][9] - Buyers in the luxury segment are less sensitive to price changes, focusing instead on scarcity and exclusive resources [7][8] Entry-Level Market - Entry-level properties are gaining traction due to their affordability, with several units priced below 60,000 yuan per square meter making it to the top sales rankings [11] - Key factors driving the success of entry-level homes include proximity to subway lines, low total prices, and high usable area ratios [12] - For instance, the Zhongjian Yunhe Jiuyuan in Tongzhou sold nearly 70 units at just over 60,000 yuan per square meter, highlighting the appeal of affordable housing options [11][12] Mid-Range Market - The mid-range improvement housing market is facing challenges, caught in a difficult position without the allure of luxury or the price appeal of entry-level homes [13][14] - Properties priced between 6 million to just over 10 million yuan are struggling, with some previously popular projects now seeing price declines in the secondary market [13][14] - The disparity in costs within the same project could pose risks for future transactions, as buyers who purchased at higher prices may face losses if market conditions worsen [14] Market Outlook - The real estate market is expected to continue seeking balance between policy support and self-correction, with a persistent trend of "two extremes stable, middle fluctuating" likely to endure [15][16]

再过一个月就迈进2026年了，不管专家们是说"房价到底了"，还是市场里有人喊"房价还得跌"，对普通 人来说，这些讨论最终都会变成每天要面对的实际开支和压力。 回头看看刚过去的2025年，数据已经把表面的温和气氛撕得干干净净，全国70个大中城市的新房价格跌 了2.7%，二手房基本全线下滑。 租房市场也撑不住了，50个城市里有49个房租在跌，这一连串冰冷数字的背后，是无数家庭的观念被迫 改变：房子不再是稳得不能再稳的那根支柱了。 以前大家比的是"谁房子多""谁买得早"，现在，快有一半的家庭要面对的不是房价涨跌，而是一个更现 实的问题：未来生活能不能稳住，手里有没有随时能用的钱。 比起房子值不值钱，能不能在需要钱的时候马上拿出来用，这件事更关键，最让人心里不踏实的，就是 手里的房子正在迅速失去"变现能力"。 很多人原本觉得，不行了就把房子卖掉嘛，总能顶一顶难关，但现实完全不是这样，现在不是你想不想 卖的问题，而是市场给不给你机会卖。 不是没人想买，而是大家都不敢买，收入不稳，行情看不清，怕接盘，10月份全国新房成交额比去年少 了四分之一，按揭贷款降了三成，整个市场都是观望的氛围。 真正麻烦是，生活要用钱的时候，房子 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite significant declines in housing prices across various cities in China, a wave of mortgage defaults has not materialized, and banks remain stable, indicating unique characteristics of the Chinese housing and banking systems [3][5][19]. Housing Price Decline - Many cities, particularly in lower-tier markets, have experienced housing price reductions exceeding 50%, with specific cities like Langfang and Baoding seeing declines of 69% and 66% respectively [4][5]. - The overall sentiment is that even with substantial price drops, the anticipated mortgage default crisis has not occurred, contrasting with expectations based on international experiences [5][19]. Mortgage Structure and Borrower Behavior - The structure of mortgages in China differs significantly from that in the U.S., with fixed-term loans and strict repayment conditions, making it less likely for borrowers to default [7][9]. - Most borrowers rely on stable income sources to repay loans, and the cultural emphasis on homeownership leads many to continue payments despite financial strain [11][13][16]. - The consequences of default, including damage to credit scores and social stigma, deter many from considering it an option [14][16]. Bank Stability and Risk Management - Chinese banks maintain low non-performing loan ratios, with major banks reporting rates below 1% for personal housing loans, reflecting effective risk management practices [5][19]. - The requirement for substantial down payments (often around 30%) reduces the risk for banks, as even in the event of defaults, losses are minimized [9][21]. - The banking system's conservative approach to lending and the backing of government policies contribute to its resilience [21]. Cultural and Social Factors - The concept of homeownership in China is deeply ingrained, with homes viewed as essential for family stability, education, and social status, leading to a reluctance to default [13][14][16]. - The societal pressure to maintain creditworthiness and the fear of social repercussions from defaulting play significant roles in borrowers' decisions to continue making payments [16][21]. - The phenomenon of "sacrificing personal comfort" to uphold mortgage obligations reflects a broader cultural attitude towards responsibility and family honor [21].

自打2022年房子真的走下坡路以来，这一路的景象，光是用"下跌"两个字都形容不出那股子凉意。起初，这事儿显得还有点遮遮掩掩，像是先从郑州、武 汉、石家庄、天津这些二三线城市透出风声，房价慢慢往下滑，倒也没掀起多大的波澜。可谁也没想到，跌势就这样悄无声息地蔓延开来，连上海、深圳 这样平日里风光无限的一线城市，也渐渐扛不住了。 你要是翻翻数据，那场面真叫人心里咯噔一声——北京二手房价累计跌了29.5%，一下子退回到2016年8月的水平，恍如时光倒流；上海也不遑多让，跌 幅高达30.6%，房价退回到了2016年3月的模样；至于深圳，那就更不用说了，跌幅冲到了惊人的38.7%，直接落回2016年7月的价位，这一跌，几乎是把 过去几年的涨幅一口气吞了回去。就连一向被视为房价"不败之地"的香港，这次也没能幸免，房价跌了28.8%，回到了2015年1月的水平，那股子高处不胜 寒的意味，实在让人唏嘘不已。 房子本是他们安身立命的希望，可如今市值一个劲儿往下跌，每个月近万元的房贷却雷打不动。说不焦虑是假的，夜深人静的时候，那种压力和无力感， 恐怕只有他们自己能懂。本来想着买了房就能踏实生活，哪知道却像是背上了更沉的担子。 其实 ...

#报告 高盛：近期中国路演的关键宏观议题辩论——境内投资者比境外客户更担心持续的房价下跌和内需疲弱；客户对中国股市持积极态度......None (@None):None ...