Core Viewpoint - Recent actions by various cities to curb "bearish" sentiments in the real estate market have sparked widespread public attention, indicating a growing trend to restrict negative commentary on the housing market [1][3][4] Group 1: Government and Industry Responses - The Beijing Real Estate Brokerage Industry Association issued a statement on September 30, urging members to refrain from "bearish" market commentary and to prohibit malicious price reductions [1] - On September 9, the Harbin Real Estate Brokerage Industry Association criticized a self-media outlet for its negative statements about the local housing market, labeling them as "inappropriate remarks" [1] - These actions reflect a broader effort by local governments and industry associations to maintain market stability and prevent panic among potential buyers [4][5] Group 2: Public Sentiment and Debate - There is a divide in public opinion regarding the restriction of "bearish" commentary, with supporters arguing that such measures are necessary to maintain confidence in a market heavily reliant on public sentiment [5][7] - Critics question whether these negative statements truly constitute "inappropriate remarks" or if they are valid analyses based on market data, suggesting that limiting discourse may obscure the real state of the housing market [7][9] - The discussion surrounding housing prices is crucial for many households, and it should not be treated as a taboo subject; a transparent market environment is essential for the long-term health of the real estate sector [9]

t 1882 1 t IT 1 1 1 t I 记者 蔡越坤 "证都没到手，倒先赚了近六万元。"付倩倩自己都觉得不可思议。 9月28日，付倩倩刚入了手一套定边县城核心地段的二手房。过户手续办完，房产证还没捂热，国庆长假就已到来。 蔡越坤/摄 谁料假期头一天，带看客户当场拍板：42.8万元，全款，不算增值税、中介费，以及所有税费——而她几天前拿下这套房时，总价还不到37万元。 与之形成鲜明对照的，是陕西省会西安房市的冰冷行情。贝壳研究院数据显示，2025年9月西安二手房均价12234元/㎡，同比再跌10.1%，环比也下滑1.4%； 自2022年二季度攀上约1.6万元/㎡的历史顶峰后，便一路下坠，三年间跌去近四分之一，与全国多数一、二线城市的走势相似。 然而，定边这座人口不足40万、GDP刚过430亿元的塞上小城却逆势上扬，走出一条令人瞠目的"独立行情"。 "石油小城"房价凭啥一直涨？ 定边县隶属被誉为"中国的科威特"的榆林市，位于陕西省西北部，榆林市最西端，陕甘宁蒙（区）七县（旗）交界处，有"三秦要塞"之说。是陕西省的西北 门户、榆林市的西大门。北宋庆历二年（1042年），时任陕西经略安抚招讨使的范仲淹，以"底 ...

Core Insights - The real estate market in September showed a slight increase in new home prices, while second-hand home prices continued to decline, indicating a divergence in market performance [1][2][6]. New Home Market - In September, the average price of new homes in 100 cities was 16,926 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month increase of 0.09% and a year-on-year increase of 2.68% [1][2]. - The third quarter saw a cumulative increase of 0.47% in new home prices, although this was a slowdown compared to the previous quarter [2][4]. - First-tier cities experienced significant price increases, with Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou leading the way in month-on-month growth [4][6]. - The new home market is characterized by a structural increase in prices, driven by active land acquisition by developers in core cities [6]. Second-Hand Home Market - The average price of second-hand homes in September was 13,381 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.74% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.38% [1][7]. - Second-hand home prices have now declined for 41 consecutive months, with the cumulative drop in the third quarter reaching 2.26% [7][9]. - The decline in second-hand home prices is most pronounced in second-tier cities, which saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.87% [9][11]. Market Dynamics - The high inventory levels in the second-hand market are contributing to ongoing price pressures, with many projects adopting a "price reduction to increase sales" strategy [6][9]. - Policy measures are being implemented in various cities to alleviate pressure on the second-hand market, including adjustments to purchase restrictions and tax incentives [11][12]. - The overall sentiment in the real estate market remains cautious, with expectations of continued price adjustments in the short term [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article debunks three common misconceptions about the real estate market, emphasizing that market dynamics are more complex than simple binary views of rising or falling prices. Group 1: Misconceptions about Price Trends - Misconception 1: Real estate prices will only rise or fall. The market experiences cycles, similar to seasons, with examples from Japan and the U.S. showing significant price fluctuations over time [3][4]. - Misconception 2: An abundance of houses leads to falling prices. The article argues that the uniqueness and location of properties are more critical than sheer quantity, highlighting that "good houses" are scarce [4][5]. - Misconception 3: Inflation guarantees rising property prices. The relationship between inflation and real estate prices is not straightforward, as seen in various global examples where inflation did not lead to price increases [5][6]. Group 2: Practical Buying Advice - For personal use, the article suggests that individuals should buy based on personal needs such as marriage, children's education, and proximity to work, rather than market speculation [6]. - For investment, the focus should be on long-term rental returns rather than quick profits from price appreciation, emphasizing the reliability of cash flow over capital gains [6]. - Local market conditions should be prioritized over national trends, as real estate dynamics can vary significantly by location [6]. - Caution is advised regarding leverage; a mortgage payment exceeding 50% of income can lead to financial strain during market fluctuations [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the unethical practices of real estate agents, including hiring "actors" to create false demand and pressure sellers into quick transactions, which has led to public outrage and skepticism towards the industry [1][9][10]. Group 1: Industry Practices - Some second-hand housing agents recruit "actors" on social media to view properties and create a false sense of urgency for sellers [1][9]. - An example is provided where an "actor" offered a significantly lower price than the listing, causing the seller to leave in anger [2][5]. - The article discusses the prevalence of such deceptive practices in the real estate industry, indicating that many buyers and sellers have experienced similar issues [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The article notes that real estate agents often shift their stance based on market conditions, currently favoring buyers due to a surplus of listings compared to potential buyers [18][20]. - It explains that during market downturns, agents are more likely to assist buyers in negotiating lower prices, as buyers have become scarce [23][22]. - The article suggests that agents are primarily motivated by commission and are more concerned with transaction volume than the actual price fluctuations of properties [17][21]. Group 3: Public Sentiment - The public's anger is directed towards agents, with many blaming them for the decline in property prices, reflecting a broader frustration with the market [10][11]. - The article mentions that sellers often fail to accept market realities, leading them to attribute price drops to "black agents" or "malicious buyers" [30][32]. - It highlights a disconnect between sellers' expectations and market conditions, with many sellers believing that collective action can maintain property values [31][32].

9月15日，国家统计局发布的2025年8月份70城房价数据显示：环比方面 新房价格环比上涨城市有9个，其中上海、杭州、宜昌环比涨0.4%领跑。长春市二手房价格环比上涨。 总体来看，各线城市房价环比下降。同比方面 8月份，各线城市房价同比降幅继续收窄。一线城市新房销售价格同比下降0.9%，降幅比上月收窄0.2个百分点。上海新房价格 同比上涨5.9%。 | の目 | 新房 | | 二手房 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 房价 | 环比 | 同比 | 环比 | 同比 | | -线城市 | ▼ -0.1% ▼ -0.9% | | ▼-1.0% ▼-3.5% | | | 二线城市 | ▼ -0.3% ▼ -2.4% | | ▼-0.6% ▼-5.2% | | | 三线城市 | ▼-0.4% ▼-3.7% | | ▼-0.5% ▼-6.0% | | 具体来看,一线城市中,上海新房价格环比、同比均上涨,北 上广深二手房环比均下跌。 言价 北京 深圳 ▲ 0.4% 7 -0.2% 7 -0.4% 环比 ▼-0.4% 新房 同比 ▼ -3.5% ▲ 5.9% ▼ -4.3% ▼ -1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has shifted since April, moving away from the recovery trend seen since October last year, leading to concerns about further price declines. However, the market has already undergone significant adjustments over the past 4-5 years, with many cities experiencing price drops exceeding 30%, and some over 50% from their peaks. The major risks in the market have largely been released, suggesting that substantial further declines are unlikely, especially in major cities [4][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since last year, the real estate market has been changing, with a potential turning point approaching. By September 2024, policies aimed at stabilizing the market have been introduced, showing significant support for the sector. Major cities are beginning to show signs of recovery due to these supportive measures [5]. - Despite a downturn since April, recent measures from cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have led to signs of market rebound, indicating that confidence among buyers is crucial for market activity [5]. Group 2: City-Specific Insights - In major cities, there is no shortage of potential buyers; the main issue is market confidence. New supportive measures can easily shift market expectations and stimulate activity [5]. - For those considering purchasing in smaller cities, the supply exceeds demand significantly, suggesting that prices may continue to decline. The decision to wait should depend on individual urgency and budget considerations [6].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China has shifted from a "seller's market" to a "buyer's market," leading to increased pressure on sellers to reassess their property values and make strategic decisions regarding selling [4][6]. Market Conditions - The market is experiencing a significant downturn, with a notable increase in property listings and a decrease in transactions. For instance, in major cities like Guangzhou, Nanjing, and Xi'an, the number of second-hand homes listed exceeds 13 million, 15 million, and 11 million respectively, while transaction cycles have extended beyond six months [6][12]. - The overall trend shows a decline in property prices, with over 60% of cities experiencing a month-on-month drop in new home prices in 2024, and even more pronounced declines in second-hand home prices [6]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand is shrinking due to factors such as income impacts from the pandemic, slowing population growth, and a general reluctance among younger individuals to purchase homes [6]. - On the supply side, many investors who entered the market in previous years are now selling off their properties, resulting in an oversupply situation [6]. Decision-Making Factors - Sellers are encouraged to evaluate their personal financial situations rather than solely focusing on market prices. Key questions include urgency for cash, the value of the property, and outlook on the future [9][18]. - The decision to sell should be viewed as a strategic move to optimize asset allocation rather than a sign of defeat [9][18]. Opportunities and Risks - Core cities and prime locations still hold potential for appreciation due to ongoing population and capital inflows, making them more resilient to price declines [16]. - Government policies aimed at supporting housing demand, particularly for first-time buyers and those seeking improved living conditions, may lead to gradual market recovery [17]. Conclusion - The current real estate landscape requires a careful assessment of individual circumstances and market conditions. The focus should be on personal financial health and asset management rather than being swayed by market sentiment [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a significant decline, yet potential buyers are hesitant to purchase properties despite lower prices, leading to extremely low transaction volumes [2][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Major cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou have seen drastic price drops, with some properties losing nearly half their value [2]. - Transaction volumes have plummeted, with instances of zero sales recorded, indicating a lack of buyer interest [2]. Group 2: Buyer Sentiment - Many potential buyers are waiting for prices to drop further, despite current prices being significantly lower than peak levels [4]. - The fear of further declines in property values is causing a psychological barrier for buyers, leading to missed opportunities [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The article draws parallels to the U.S. housing market's past, warning that excessive lending practices can lead to financial crises, suggesting that current market conditions could have similar repercussions [4]. - The narrative of falling prices is detrimental to buyer confidence, as it creates a negative expectation regarding future price movements [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is approaching a stabilization phase after two years of decline, presenting a potential buying opportunity for those willing to act [5]. - Economic recovery signals and increasing incomes may lead to a resurgence in buyer interest, making it crucial for buyers to act before prices rise again [5].

8月15日，国家统计局发布的2025年7月份70城房价数据显示：环比方面 新房价格环比上涨城市有6个，其中上海、乌鲁木齐环比涨0.3%领跑；二手房价格环比上涨的城市有1个。 总体来看，各线城市房价环比下降。同比方面 7月份，新房价格同比下降城市有65个，相比上月减少了2个。 总体来看，各线城市房价同比降幅继续收窄。 | | | 00城 下跌 | | --- | --- | --- | | 60城· 下跌 | | | | 新房涨跌 | | 二手房涨跌 | | 新房领涨城市(环比) | | 新房领跌城市(环比) | | 上海、乌鲁木齐 | 公 0.3% | 海口、扬州 ¥ -0.8% | | 宜昌、三亚 | 公 0.2% | 武汉、兰州、襄阳 √-0.7% | | 长春、常德 | 公 0.1% | 宁波、厦门、南昌、 郑州、深圳、包头、▽-0.6% | | | | 泉州、北海 | | 二手房领涨城市(环比) | | 二手房领跌城市(环比) | | 太原 | 会 0.2% | 北京、武汉 ¥ -1.1% | | | | 广州、徐州 ¥ -1.0% | | | | 上海、深圳、西安 v-0.9% | 各线城市房价环比 ...