2月2日，海南省市场利率定价自律机制发布政策公告称，2月3日起，海南省19个市县调整商业用房 购房贷款最低首付款比例，首付款比例不低于30%。 公告指出，为贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，适应房地产市场供求关系的新变化，支持构建房 地产发展新模式，根据《中国人民银行 国家金融监督管理总局关于调整商业用房购房贷款最低首付款 比例政策的通知》要求，中国人民银行海南省分行会同国家金融监督管理总局海南监管局根据城市政府 调控要求，按照因城施策原则，指导海南省市场利率定价自律机制对海南省19个市县的商业用房购房贷 款政策作以下调整：全省商业用房（含"商住两用房"）购房贷款最低首付款比例调整为不低于30%。在 政策下限基础上，省内各商业银行可按市场化、法治化原则，结合自身经营情况、客户风险状况等因 素，合理确定每笔商业用房购房贷款具体首付款比例。（记者 王培琳） ...

南京2025年度房地产市场分析报告 第一章 政策环境 3 政策环境 | 全国政策 www.elmlead.com 2026年1月 目录 | CONTENTS | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | Part1 | 政策环境 | | | Part2 | 土地市场 | | | Part3 | 住宅市场 | | | Part4 | 市场热点 | | | Part5 | 市场总结及未来趋势展望 | 2 2025年国家层面并未像2024年出台全国性一揽子新政，政策不托举，市场只能自我调整。 年底中央经济工作会议对房地产定调，短期政策将转为长期制度"2026年要着力稳定房地产市场"。 2024 2025 5.17信贷新政：取消房贷利率下 限、降低首套及二套首付比例。 5月 9月 12月 4.25政治局会议：加快构建房 地产发展新模式，持续巩固房 地产市场稳定态势。 4月 9.24一揽子政策：降准、降息、降低存 量房贷利率、统一最低首付比例。 10.17财政部：一揽子地方政府财政化债 措施。 12.10经济会议：持续用力推动房地产市场 止跌回稳，加力实施城中村和危旧房改造。 12.10经济会议：着力稳定 ...

人民财讯1月27日电，为贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，适应房地产市场供求关系新变化，支持构 建房地产发展新模式，中国人民银行甘肃省分行联合国家金融监督管理总局甘肃监管局于近日发布通 知，指导甘肃省市场利率定价自律机制对全省商业用房购房贷款政策作出调整。根据通知要求，自1月 26日起，甘肃省14个市州的商业用房（含商住两用房）购房贷款最低首付款比例统一调整为不低于 30%。通知明确，各银行业金融机构可在全省统一的最低首付款比例基础上，按照市场化、法治化原 则，结合本机构经营状况、客户风险状况等因素，合理确定每笔贷款的具体首付款比例。 ...

新华社北京1月23日电 题：存量与增量并重 区位分化进一步扩大——房地产市场一线观察 新华社记者王优玲、张钟仁、龚联康 换购住房退还个人所得税政策第二次延期、存量个人公积金贷款利率下调、北京放宽非京籍家庭购房条 件……近期，一系列着力稳定房地产市场的政策不断落地，楼市在调整中逐渐呈现出结构性的新特点， 部分城市二手房交易更加活跃，区位分化特征更加明显。 在北京链家富力爱丁堡一店，经纪人张浩最近带客户实地看房，日程颇为繁忙。"最近我们板块内不满2 年房源的关注度和线上浏览量都有所增加。之前一些客户因为看中的房子不满2年、税费高而较为犹 豫，国家推出减税政策、北京出台楼市新政策后，购房成本降低，带动了一些优质房源的热度，政策出 来当周，我们店就成交了3套。"张浩说。 一段时间以来，北京、深圳、成都等地因城施策调整优化房地产政策，降低购房门槛、提高交易效率。 北京链家研究院院长高原说，政策调整有利于刚需客户积极入市，并为置换、改善型客户提供良好的外 部市场条件。由于春节前市场活跃度本身存在季节性抬升特点，政策影响更有可能在一、二季度市场中 持续显现。 记者走访北京、武汉、青岛、成都等地房地产市场发现，楼市呈现出明显 ...

Policy Environment - In 2025, Shanghai will continue to implement policies aimed at stimulating the real estate market, including the relaxation of purchase restrictions and the enhancement of public housing fund loan limits [8][11] - The "Good House" regulations introduced in September 2025 will encourage improvements in housing quality and optimize residential standards [13] Land Market - The land market is expected to show a "rise then fall" trend, with high premium transactions for quality plots in core areas, such as the Xuhui Hengfu plot reaching a floor price of 200,000 yuan per square meter [19][20] - The overall land supply in 2025 is projected to be similar to 2024, with a slight increase in core urban area land supply [25][29] Residential Market - The new housing market is experiencing a contraction in supply and demand, with transaction prices averaging 80,600 yuan per square meter, and a notable focus on mid-range units priced between 3 million to 7 million yuan [11][12] - The second-hand housing market is characterized by a significant price-volume trade-off, with total transactions reaching 253,800 units, and nearly 70% of transactions involving units under 90 square meters [11][12] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape among real estate companies is dominated by major state-owned enterprises, with China Resources, Poly, and China Merchants ranking as the top three in sales volume [11][12] - The influx of external capital continues, indicating sustained interest in Shanghai's real estate market despite the overall cooling trend [20][22]

Group 1 - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market include the second extension of the housing tax refund policy, a reduction in the interest rates for existing personal housing loans, and relaxed purchasing conditions for non-local families in Beijing [1] - The real estate market is showing structural new characteristics, with increased activity in second-hand housing transactions in certain cities, and a more pronounced differentiation based on location [1] - In major cities like Beijing, Shenzhen, and Chengdu, policy adjustments are lowering purchasing thresholds and improving transaction efficiency, which is expected to benefit first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade their homes [1][2] Group 2 - The second-hand housing market is projected to account for 44.6% of total housing transactions by 2025, an increase of 2.7 percentage points from 2024, with cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou seeing over 60% of their transactions in second-hand homes [2] - Despite a decline in real estate development investment and new home sales, the overall market is stabilizing, with some major cities experiencing slight year-on-year growth in sales [2] - There is a noticeable differentiation in sales performance among different projects within the same area, with high-quality new developments achieving over 70% sales rates, while older projects struggle due to product deficiencies [3] Group 3 - By the end of 2025, the area of unsold commercial housing is expected to decrease to 76,632 million square meters, down by 3,259 million square meters from the beginning of the year, indicating effective coordination between supply control and demand stimulation measures [4] - The national housing and urban-rural construction work meeting emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market, aiming for a balance between supply and demand and optimizing the structure for high-quality development [4] - The changing dynamics of housing demand, driven by population characteristics, necessitate a more tailored approach to housing supply that aligns with population movement and industrial development [4]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is still undergoing adjustments, but positive factors are accumulating, and expanding effective demand is a crucial task for stabilizing the market [1][2]. Policy Measures - The government has introduced a variety of policies to stabilize the real estate market, but the overall market remains in a state of adjustment. The main issue is insufficient effective demand, necessitating a focus on changing market expectations and improving residents' payment capabilities [2][3]. - Current policies cover various aspects such as market, taxation, credit, and land, with significant efforts made. However, it is uncertain if these policies have reached their maximum effectiveness [3][4]. Local Government Role - Local governments need to take responsibility and actively adjust policies based on local market conditions, as the real estate market varies significantly across regions [4][5]. - The "Five Limits" policy has been largely relaxed, with most cities lifting restrictions except for a few first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai [4][5]. Housing Fund System - The housing provident fund system should be reformed to better support low- and middle-income households, providing them with low-cost housing financing [7][8]. - There is potential for lowering both the housing provident fund loan rates and deposit rates, which could reduce housing costs for participants [8][9]. Market Outlook - The real estate market is expected to continue adjusting and stabilizing in the coming years, with a key indicator being whether housing prices stop declining [10][11]. - The transition from the old development model characterized by high debt and turnover to a new model focused on sustainable and high-quality development will take time and may involve a painful adjustment period [11].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is expected to enter a bottoming phase by 2026, with reduced negative impact on economic growth due to policy optimization and enhanced financing support [1][2]. Group 1: Market Adjustments - The real estate market is undergoing positive changes as the transition between old and new models continues [1]. - It is anticipated that major cities will optimize existing policies by 2026, potentially eliminating restrictive home purchase regulations [1]. - The scale of special bond issuance for real estate is projected to reach between 200 billion to 300 billion yuan, facilitating the de-inventory of 20 million to 30 million square meters of commercial housing [1]. Group 2: Financial and Policy Support - Financially, the central bank may moderately lower mortgage and housing provident fund loan rates, while fiscal policies could introduce home purchase interest subsidies [1][2]. - The financing coordination mechanism will continue to be strengthened, ensuring that financial institutions meet reasonable financing needs, including those of private real estate companies [1][2]. Group 3: Sales and Investment Trends - Real estate sales growth is expected to show a pattern of lower performance initially, followed by improvement, with a projected year-on-year decline in sales area of about 6% [2]. - The investment decline in the real estate sector is expected to narrow to around 10% for the year, indicating a reduction in the intensity of industry adjustments [2]. Group 4: Economic Impact - The negative impact of the real estate market on nominal GDP is projected to decrease significantly, with a forecasted contribution rate decline of about 15% and a reduction in GDP growth drag of approximately 0.6 percentage points compared to 2025 [2]. Group 5: Recommendations for Policy Adjustment - It is suggested to lower the cost of first-time home purchases and broaden purchasing thresholds, including a potential reduction of mortgage rates by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points [2]. - Accelerating the coverage of special loans for real estate companies and ensuring liquidity support for those maintaining normal operations is also recommended [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [2] Core Views - The report highlights a rebound in sales on a month-on-month basis, supported by policies aimed at improving housing conditions for residents [7] - The overall market performance is weak, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index declining by 3.52% compared to a 0.57% drop in the CSI 300 Index, resulting in a relative return of -2.95% [4][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of financially stable real estate companies, suggesting a focus on leading firms that can effectively navigate market fluctuations [7] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 3.52%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.57%, indicating underperformance of the sector relative to the broader market [4][12] Industry Fundamentals - For the week of January 9-15, 2026, the total number of new homes sold in 38 key cities was 21,770 units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14.7% but a month-on-month increase of 12.4%. The total area sold was 201.4 million square meters, down 25.3% year-on-year but up 12.8% month-on-month [5][22] - In the same week, the total number of second-hand homes sold in 16 key cities was 18,991 units, with a year-on-year decline of 11.5% and a month-on-month increase of 17.2%. The total area sold was 188 million square meters, down 11.6% year-on-year but up 18.3% month-on-month [5][40] Land Market Analysis - During the week of January 5-11, 2026, land supply was 2,198.8 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, with an average supply price of 858 yuan per square meter, down 42% year-on-year. Land transactions totaled 1,503.1 million square meters, down 41.4% year-on-year, with a transaction value of 18.91 billion yuan, down 49.5% year-on-year [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on financially sound leading real estate companies such as Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and others, which are expected to perform well in the current policy environment [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangzhou Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau emphasizes the need to implement central government policies to stabilize and improve the real estate market by 2026, focusing on managing current and long-term relationships, controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply [1] Group 1: Market Management Strategies - The strategy includes controlling new housing demand, scientifically arranging land supply, and guiding financial resource allocation to achieve a balance between supply and demand in the market [1] - The approach to reducing inventory involves accelerating the removal of existing housing stock, promoting the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing, and enhancing policies that support trading of existing homes [1] - The optimization of supply will focus on orderly development of high-quality housing, establishing standards for "good houses," and encouraging real estate companies to develop various sizes and price points of quality housing [1]