2025.12. 24 本文字数：2490，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 亓宁 北京楼市迎来重磅新政。 12月24日，北京市住房城乡建设委、北京市发展改革委、人民银行北京市分行、北京住房公积金管 理中心四部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产相关政策的通知》（下称《通知》），自 2025年12月24日起施行。《通知》在放宽非京籍家庭购房条件、支持多子女家庭住房需求的同时， 也进一步为购房者减负。 拉平首套和二套房贷利率 《通知》明确，进一步优化个人住房信贷政策，银行业金融机构根据北京地区市场利率定价自律机制 要求和本机构经营状况、客户风险状况等因素，在利率定价机制安排方面不再区分首套住房和二套住 房，合理确定每笔商业性个人住房贷款的具体利率水平。关于住房贷款相关业务，可向经办银行具体 咨询。 "上海、深圳在今年8～9月已经出台了这一政策。具体利率是多少，将由银行根据利率定价机制安 排，总体上降低了二套房贷利率，有利于降低购买二套房家庭的购房成本，促进需求释放。"中指研 究院相关负责人表示。 据中指研究院监测，2025年以来，全国各地公积金政策出台频次超过270条，涉及提高公积金贷款 额度、降低公 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡整理 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 24 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周二持仓量增仓 17388 手，成交量相比上 一交易日略微缩量，日内震荡运行，最低 3111，最高 3144，收于 3136 元/吨， 上涨 2 元/吨，涨幅 0.06%。成交量 837866 手。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3320 元/吨，相 比上一交易日维稳。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 184 元/吨。期货贴水较大，一定程度上继续支撑 期货价格。 二、基本面数据 ■宏观面：中央经济会议灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动 性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制。着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库 存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。美联储 12 月降息 25 基点符合预期。宏观预期稳中偏好。十五五规划建议为钢铁行业指明了"减量不 是衰退，而是高质量发展"的转型路径，核心围绕"控产能、优结构、促转型、提 质量"展开。 ■成本端：铁矿石强势，双焦期货企稳上涨，继续提升成本支撑。 1，供需情况： 供应端：截至 12 月 ...

上周（2025年12月15日-21日），昆明楼市成交量价齐跌，旧规项目年终冲刺，积极营销让利。云南加大对多子女家庭购房支持力度，昆明放宽配售型保 障房购买条件；云南建投拿地杀入关上板块，邦泰斗南片区出手，摘得邦泰映悦项目后续用地。 据克而瑞发布的最新数据显示，上周昆明共计3项目向市场供应约4.04万㎡，合计339套房源，环比上涨19%；成交约5.92万㎡，环比下跌10%；成交均价 约12129元/㎡，环比下跌4%。 从"双榜"情况来看，邦泰观云四代宅产品持续热销，也是价格最高的一个项目。单周销售约0.34亿元，成交均价约18095元/㎡，套均价约284万/套。 因签约名校，大华旗下大华公园天下、大华·锦绣麓城双盘联动热销上榜。分别销售约0.31亿元、0.25亿元，成交25套、22套，成交均价约10502元/㎡、 10735元/㎡，套均价约122万/套、112万/套。 一环边旧规项目，远大·云锦壹号集中备案，单周销售约0.29亿元，成交17套，成交均价约12754元/㎡，套均价约170万/套。 （项目交付楼栋实拍图） 目前，远大·云锦壹号一栋已完成交付，2栋、3栋、4栋火爆热销中，预计于明年6月份交付，项目二期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is expected to undergo significant changes by 2026, with five major trends emerging that will affect buying and selling decisions, as well as overall market stability [1] Group 1: Trends in Home Buying - Trend 1: The cost of buying a home will decrease, with policies aimed at making home purchases more affordable and reducing financial pressure on buyers. This includes potential easing of restrictions in major cities and lower mortgage rates [3] - Trend 2: Not all properties will appreciate; only homes in "good cities" and with desirable characteristics will retain value. Cities with population inflow and strong industries will support housing demand, while weaker markets may see continued price declines [4] - Trend 3: The second-hand housing market will stabilize, moving away from panic selling. As prices reach reasonable levels, buyers will enter the market, leading to a more rational pricing environment [6] Group 2: Changes in Developer Behavior - Trend 4: Demand for improved housing will rise, prompting developers to focus on quality rather than quantity. The shift towards better living conditions will lead to enhanced property features and services [7][8] - Trend 5: The real estate industry will transition from a high-debt, high-turnover model to a more sustainable approach. Developers will focus on reducing inventory and may convert unsold properties into affordable housing options, leading to a healthier market [9][11]

土地 确认了，是万科！房企激情拿地，沈阳明年大开新盘PK升级！ 12轮竞价，溢价率5.2%，两家企业参与，沈阳土地交易市场在年末又给了大家一记重磅惊喜！12月17日，来自沈阳市浑南区世纪大厦板块的一宗约1.9万 平居住用地挂牌出让，最终经过两家房企角逐，"世纪路南新成街东-1"地块由沈阳樾通置业以每建筑平方米5260元，总金额1.99亿元成功摘得。 12轮！沈阳再现房企抢地！1.99亿，樾通置业摘得世纪路南新成街东-1地块 12月17日下午，沈阳土地交易市场传来最新消息，来自浑南区世纪大厦板块的"世纪路南新成街东-1"地块，以单价5260元/建筑平方米，总价1.99亿元，溢 价5.2%，经过12轮竞拍被樾通置业成功摘得。未来地块开发入市后，将为浑南核心板块市场带来"新国标"后稀缺的迭代新盘供应。 2025土拍收官在即！首宗热地5010元起拍，2026将迎"开门红"！ 沈阳2026楼市五大关键词，中央经济会议定调！ 2025年中央经济工作会议于2025年12月10日至11日在北京举行，会议总结2025年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作。会议指出，坚持守 牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险。着力稳 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market benchmark in the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continued decline in real estate sales, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 7.8% in sales area and 11.1% in sales revenue for the first eleven months of 2025 [2][11]. - The report notes that the decline in real estate investment has widened, with a 15.9% year-on-year decrease in development investment, and a 20.5% drop in new construction area [3][19]. - Funding for real estate has also decreased, with total funds available to developers down by 11.9% year-on-year, and domestic loans showing a negative year-on-year change of 2.5% [4][21]. - The report emphasizes the need for policy support to stabilize the real estate market, with expectations for new policies to be introduced in 2026 to boost demand [5]. Summary by Sections Sales Data - In the first eleven months of 2025, the total sales area reached 790 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 7.8%. The sales revenue amounted to 7.5 trillion yuan, reflecting an 11.1% year-on-year decrease [2][11]. - In November 2025 alone, the sales area was 67 million square meters, down 17.3% year-on-year, while sales revenue was 610 billion yuan, down 25.1% year-on-year [2]. Investment Data - Real estate development investment totaled 7.9 trillion yuan in the first eleven months of 2025, down 15.9% year-on-year. The new construction area was 530 million square meters, reflecting a 20.5% decline [3][19]. - The construction area was 6.56 billion square meters, down 9.4% year-on-year, and the completed area was 390 million square meters, down 18.0% year-on-year [3][21]. Funding Data - The total funds available to real estate companies were 8.5 trillion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year. Domestic loans accounted for 1.3 trillion yuan, showing a 2.5% decline [4][21]. - Self-raised funds were 3.1 trillion yuan, down 11.9%, and personal mortgage loans were 1.2 trillion yuan, down 15.1% [4]. Policy Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market as a key task for 2026, with potential policies to reduce housing costs and stimulate demand [5]. - The report suggests focusing on three areas for investment: commercial real estate, second-hand brokerage, and property services, along with quality developers [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The real - estate market shows mixed trends. New home sales ended a four - week increase and declined, while second - hand home sales stabilized. The year - on - year decline in sales volume is gradually narrowing, indicating a market in the process of bottom - grinding [1][2]. - Policy focus is shifting from "stopping the decline and stabilizing" to "focusing on stability", emphasizing normal risk management. In 2026, policies will likely focus on "city - specific measures", including "acquiring inventory for housing" and "building high - quality housing" [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Situation - **New Homes**: 38 - city new home sales volume was 2.64 million square meters this week (Dec 5 - 11), a 9% week - on - week decline after four consecutive weeks of growth. The absolute scale is still within the recent range, indicating the market is in a consolidation phase after a pulse - like recovery [1]. - **Second - hand Homes**: 15 - city second - hand home sales volume stabilized at 2.14 million square meters this week, with a basically flat week - on - week change. The four - week sales volume is stable, showing stronger resilience than new homes [1]. - **Year - on - Year Comparison**: 38 - city new home sales volume decreased by 33% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 3 percentage points. 15 - city second - hand home sales volume decreased by 34% year - on - year, with the decline also narrowing by 3 percentage points [1]. 3.2 Monthly Situation - **New Homes**: From Dec 1 - 11, 38 - city new home sales volume decreased by 29% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 6 percentage points compared to November, showing marginal improvement [2]. - **Second - hand Homes**: From Dec 1 - 11, 15 - city second - hand home sales volume decreased by 34% year - on - year, with the decline widening by 14 percentage points compared to October and November, facing significant short - term correction pressure [2]. 3.3 Performance in First - tier Cities - **New Homes**: After two consecutive weeks of growth, first - tier city new home sales volume decreased by 6% week - on - week. There is significant inter - city differentiation. Beijing showed strong recovery momentum, while Shanghai decreased, Shenzhen rebounded from the bottom, and Guangzhou continued to weaken [3]. - **Second - hand Homes**: The combined second - hand home sales volume in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen increased by 4% week - on - week, mainly driven by a 20% rebound in Shenzhen. Currently, sales volumes in these three cities are stable at 73 - 79% of the annual high, significantly stronger than the new home market [3]. - **Year - on - Year Comparison**: Affected by the high base last year, new home sales volume decreased by 37% year - on - year, with the decline widening by 3 percentage points. Only Shanghai had a 13% year - on - year increase. Second - hand home sales volume decreased by 31% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [4]. 3.4 Performance in Second and Third - tier Cities - **Second - tier Cities**: New home sales volume decreased by 9% week - on - week, but the year - on - year decline narrowed by 11 percentage points to - 26%, showing signs of bottom - up recovery. Second - hand home sales were relatively stable, with a basically flat week - on - week change [5]. - **Third - tier Cities**: New home sales volume decreased by 13% week - on - week after three consecutive weeks of recovery, and the year - on - year decline widened to 42%. Second - hand home sales volume decreased by 10% week - on - week but remained at 83% of the annual high [6]. 3.5 Housing Price Observation - **Overall**: From Dec 1 - 7, the decline in second - hand housing listing prices in all tiers of cities widened, with a week - on - week decline of 0.55% - 0.58%. Second - tier cities had a larger year - on - year price adjustment, with a decline of 8.61% [7]. - **First - tier Cities**: Shenzhen's listing prices rebounded for two consecutive weeks, showing signs of bottom - stabilization. The other three cities saw an expanded decline. Guangzhou had the deepest year - on - year decline at 16.62% [7]. - **Second - tier Cities**: Chengdu and Fuzhou had a slight week - on - week increase, while Xi'an had high price volatility and was still in the process of finding a bottom [7]. 3.6 Policy Observation - The central economic work conference's tone on real estate has shifted from "stopping the decline and stabilizing" to "focusing on stability", emphasizing normal risk management. In 2026, policies will likely focus on "city - specific measures", including "acquiring inventory for housing" and "building high - quality housing" [8].

11 月房地产市场情况解读 20251130 摘要 2024 年高基数导致 2025 年 10-12 月房地产销售同比降幅显著，且短 期内政策真空期或将延续此趋势，市场压力持续。 新房市场逐渐降温，新规产品虽去化优于旧规，但压力仍在加大；旧规 产品对二手房价格压制作用明显，整体去化率仍处于低位。 11 月新房供应量同比跌幅 40%，一线城市中北京、广州环比增长显著， 二线城市如西安、苏州等地增幅超 100%。 一线城市新房成交量同比大跌约 55%，仅广州因新规产品上市环比增长； 二三线城市中，成都、西安、杭州等地表现相对稳定。 房企新增供应意愿不强，受货值、市场信心及旧规产品调价促销难度影 响，整体观望情绪浓厚。 11 月整体新房去化率为 35%，同比下降 8 个百分点，一线城市中北京、 上海表现较弱，广州因新规产品支撑稍好。 二手房市场 11 月环比回升 12%，结束连续 7 个月的下跌，但同比仍下 降 22%；预计 2026 年上半年仍将延续低迷状态。 Q&A 目前房地产市场的整体情况如何？ 2025 年 11 月的房地产市场延续了前几个月的低迷状态，市场压力并未显著改 善。城市层面的成交量环比下降 14 ...

房地产市场传来重大消息，国家层面正通过专项债等工具收购存量商品房，这一被形象称为"国家队进场"的操作，对市场意味着什么？ 近期，一项被广泛解读为"国家开始亲自下场买房"的政策正在全国多地铺开。根据各地房交会信息和官方通知，包括张家界、杭州等多个城市相继推出收 购存量商品房用作保障房的举措。 同时，据中指研究院监测，截至2025年6月末，已有25个省市公示拟使用专项债收购闲置存量土地，总金额超4700亿元。 01 国家进场：收购存量房，一石二鸟 这些举措一方面缓解了房地产企业的库存压力，另一方面也加快了保障性住房的筹集速度，可谓一石二鸟。 02 政策背景：市场持续承压，止跌回稳成目标 国家为何选择此时"亲自下场"？理解这一问题的前提是认清当前房地产市场的现状。 从国家统计局发布的最新数据来看，2025年1—10月： 国家层面收购存量商品房并非空穴来风。2025年3月，住房和城乡建设部部长倪虹在民生主题记者会上明确表示，将 "推进收购存量商品房" 作为坚决"稳 住楼市"的四项重点任务之一。 他特别指出，今年地方政府专项债安排4.4万亿元，其中一个使用方向就是土地收储和收购存量商品房。 具体如何操作？从各地实践看， ...

Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of the price filing for commercial housing in Ganzhou has raised concerns about potential price drops in the real estate market, as it allows developers more freedom in pricing their properties [1][4]. Group 1: Background and Purpose of Price Filing - The original purpose of the price filing system was to regulate and stabilize the real estate market, preventing rapid price increases since its introduction in 2017 [1]. - The system aimed to ensure transparency and fairness in pricing, as outlined in the 2017 notification regarding real estate market regulation [1]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - The decision to cancel the price filing is a response to the current downward trend in housing prices, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][6]. - Developers are expected to exercise caution in pricing, as arbitrary price changes are not anticipated; adjustments will be based on strategic needs rather than opportunistic pricing [4]. Group 3: Implications for Developers and Consumers - The removal of the price filing process is seen as a positive step, allowing developers to better manage sales strategies and improve sales efficiency, especially as the year-end approaches [6]. - This change may provide opportunities for consumers to purchase properties at lower prices, as the market is perceived to be at a bottoming phase [6].