Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The agricultural products sector shows diverse trends. Soybean meal is strongly rising, sugar is rebounding, and the oil and fat sector is oscillating upward. Different varieties are affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal consumption patterns [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Soybean Meal - The 2509 contract has risen significantly, reaching a new stage high. The US bio - fuel policy has boosted US soybean prices, which in turn support domestic soybean varieties. Despite high domestic oil mill operating rates, strong terminal demand and active提货 keep inventory accumulation slow. As of the 24th week, the inventory was 410,000 tons, with a 7.19% week - on - week increase and a 58.79% year - on - year decrease. The technical pattern is strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light long positions with support at 3050 and resistance at 3100 [2]. (2) Soybean Oil - The 2509 contract oscillated upward. The US renewable fuel policy has a positive impact, but high domestic oil mill operating rates and increased inventory limit the upward space. The contract is technically strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light long positions with support at 7932 and resistance at 8100 [3]. (3) Palm Oil - The 2509 contract oscillated upward. The US bio - fuel policy and strong Malaysian palm oil exports support the price. The technical pattern is strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light long positions with support at 8400 and resistance at 8500 [5]. (4) Corn - The 2507 contract first declined and then rose, showing a high - level oscillation. The wheat purchase price and reduced supply pressure support the price. The recommended strategy is short - term trading with support at 2353 and resistance at 2369 [7]. (5) Live Pigs - The 2509 contract oscillated upward. The state purchase plan, reduced supply, and transportation restrictions support the price. The technical pattern is strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold long positions with support at 13750 and resistance at 13930 [10]. (6) Eggs - The 2508 contract oscillated downward, falling into a weak state again. High egg - laying hen inventory and the off - season for sales put downward pressure on the price. The technical pattern is weak, and the recommended strategy is to close long positions with support at 3537 and resistance at 3600 [11][13]. (7) Sugar - The 2509 contract strongly rebounded. The rebound of the external market and the approaching domestic consumption season support the price. The technical pattern has turned strong, and the recommended strategy is to close short positions and consider long positions with support at 5636 and resistance at 5725 [14]. (8) Cotton - The 2509 contract oscillated and closed with a small positive candle, continuing the sideways trend. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and reduced inventory support the price, but the off - season in the textile market limits the upward space. The technical pattern is slightly strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light long positions with support at 13450 and resistance at 13600 [16]. (9) Apples - The 2510 contract strongly rose, entering an upward trend. Low inventory supports the price, and attention should be paid to the growth and quality of new - season apples. The technical pattern has turned strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light long positions with support at 7594 and resistance at 7698 [18]. (10) Peanuts - The 2510 contract oscillated downward, and the rebound was limited. The weakening support from the oil and fat sector and low demand limit the price. The technical pattern is weak, and the recommended strategy is to close long positions with support at 8240 and resistance at 8334 [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Market conditions are diverse, with some commodities showing supply - demand imbalances, price fluctuations, and different trends in the short and long term [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Basic Metals - **Copper**: After Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, the dollar weakened, supporting copper. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the spot market is also tight after the contract change. The domestic inventory increased by 0.72 million tons this week. It is recommended to treat it with a wide - range oscillation mindset [1]. - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum plant maintains high - load production, and the operating capacity increases slightly, while the aluminum product start - up rate decreases slightly. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Alumina**: The alumina plant has more phased maintenance and production cuts, and the operating capacity decreases. The electrolytic aluminum plant maintains high - load production. It is in a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, and it is recommended to buy call options [1]. - **Lead**: The consumption enters the off - season, and it is difficult to improve terminal orders. The lead price has reached a strong resistance level of 17,000 yuan, and it is expected to decline in the short term and oscillate within a range in the medium term [1]. - **Silicon**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. The short - term production in Sichuan has recovered significantly, and there are production cuts in Xinjiang. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is in an oversupply pattern, and the demand growth rate falls short of expectations. The futures price is falling and the position reaches a new high. It is recommended to hold short positions or short on rebounds [2]. - **Polysilicon**: The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions and consider shorting lightly later [2]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore at home and abroad is still tight. It is recommended to treat it with a wide - range oscillation mindset [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The building materials market has weak supply and demand, but the inventory pressure is small due to low production. The plate demand is relatively stable. It is recommended to close short positions, hold short positions on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, and try the reverse spread of rebar 7/10 [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply and demand are neutral to strong in the short term, but the medium - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to close short positions and try long positions [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The overall supply and demand are relatively loose, and the futures are in a premium structure. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybeans are oscillating, and the domestic soybeans are weak in the short term and follow the international market in the medium term. Pay attention to trade policies and US soybean yields [5]. - **Corn**: The supply and demand are tightening marginally. The spot is weak, and the futures price oscillates and consolidates [5]. - **Sugar**: The market expects an enhanced supply - surplus pattern in the 25/26 sugar - making season. The futures price is expected to be weak after a short - term rebound [5]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton price rebounds slightly, and the domestic cotton price oscillates narrowly. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The production area is in the seasonal production - increasing period, and the export improves. It is in a seasonal weak stage, and pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [5]. - **Eggs**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The cost provides support, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Pigs**: The supply increases, and the demand is in the off - season. The futures price is expected to oscillate downward [6]. - **Apples**: The new - season apple production is expected to decrease due to weather, and the price is at a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: In the short term, it will oscillate strongly, and in the long term, it is recommended to short the far - month contracts on rallies as the supply will be loose [7]. - **PVC**: The fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to close short positions and wait and see [7]. - **PTA**: PX and PTA maintain the de - stocking pattern. It is recommended to take profit on long positions in the spread and be cautious about unilateral trading [8]. - **Rubber**: Affected by the rumored purchase and storage and slight de - stocking of inventory, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [8]. - **Glass**: It oscillates weakly, and it is recommended to sell call options above 1250 [8]. - **PP**: In the short term, it oscillates, and in the long term, it is recommended to short the far - month contracts on rallies [8]. - **MEG**: The short - term supply and demand are de - stocking, and the price is expected to be strong, but it is recommended to be cautious about long positions [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The trading strategy is to short on rallies. Pay attention to the OPEC meeting and the US - Iran negotiation [9]. - **Styrene**: In the short term, it will oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to do long - spread trading [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The number of maintenance increases, and the downstream demand weakens. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to stop falling and stabilize as the downstream alumina price rises [9].

能源化工日报 ◆ 橡胶： 5 月 19 日受收储信息提振，RU 重心窄幅上行。基本面看，短期胶水上量 缓慢，原料维持高位，胶价底部支撑仍存，青岛现货总库存虽延续小幅 累库；后期供应端上量预期偏强，下游需求表现疲软，整体向上驱动不 产业服务总部 能化产业服务中心 2025-05-20 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 研究员： 日度观点: ◆ PVC： 5 月 19 日 PVC 主力 09 合约收盘 4948 元/吨（-11），常州市场价 4840 元/吨（0），主力基差-108 元/吨(+11），广州市场价 4880 元/吨（0）， 杭州市场价 4860 元/吨（0）。近期在中美贸易和谈后，宏观情绪有所回 暖，PVC 库存仍在高位但略低于去年同期，季节性去库过程中，前期基 差走强给盘面一定的底部支撑。但中长期看，PVC 需求在地产拖累下持 续低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，出口以价换量持稳状态，且 出口体量总体占比不大（12%左右），制品出口端关税影响仍存；供应端 有不少新投计划，且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位，最近库存去化尚可 但仍然高企。需求不足、产 ...

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